Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[Wind_FURY]

I believe I'm the only person who actually WANTS more "Bitcoin to crash to $2,483" right now. sgbett, and Bitcoin flat-earthers, please start doing your rain dance, and pray hard. I'll be placing some low bids.

[gentlemand]

Funny how everyone seems to trash sgbett, even when he called almost the exact bottom of the last bullrun already on 7th of December 2017. In a different thread we would call a person with his price prediction skills "Master".  

It was a great call. However since he got infected first with BCH and then, gulp, BSV any credibility took a permanent vacation and the thinking is stained with it.

2. I don't think BTC has the fundamentals to warrant a recovery this time. BCH is now Bitcoin for me, that is the one that will recover.

A proper trader is completely unemotional and totally pragmatic about these things. You don't make calls because you want it to happen. We won't have that long to wait anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

Funny how everyone seems to trash sgbett, even when he called almost the exact bottom of the last bullrun already on 7th of December 2017. In a different thread we would call a person with his price prediction skills "Master".  

It was a great call. However since he got infected first with BCH and then, gulp, BSV any credibility took a permanent vacation and the thinking is stained with it.

2. I don't think BTC has the fundamentals to warrant a recovery this time. BCH is now Bitcoin for me, that is the one that will recover.

A proper trader is completely unemotional and totally pragmatic about these things. You don't make calls because you want it to happen. We won't have that long to wait anyway.

Seems like the various bcash tards, whether bch or bsv deserved to get reckt as fuck... Of course, there are a decent number of them who did retain (and maintain) some amount of hedge with bitcoin, so that hedging (even if covert) may have saved them from total implosion.

By the way, I am not going to write off the pumpability of various shitcoins from time to time in the coming years. Sure, over the longer run, they are quite likely to gravitate towards zero.. but at the same time, some of them are still going to maintain small amounts of value for long periods of time in the vein of zombie status - that is pumped every once in a while because they can... just silly to keep value in any of them, but some peeps are just silly and invest based on hopium and fantasy considerations rather than the boring haul of longer term value investing that sometimes takes a decent amount of time to carry out.. They even have impatience with BTC inspire of the relatively exponential growth that has happened in BTC's price history and the likelihood that BTC is going to continue to retain decent, strong and ongoing upwards growth accompanied by ongoing value gravitation into it.

[600watt]

Funny how everyone seems to trash sgbett, even when he called almost the exact bottom of the last bullrun already on 7th of December 2017. In a different thread we would call a person with his price prediction skills "Master".  

It was a great call. However since he got infected first with BCH and then, gulp, BSV any credibility took a permanent vacation and the thinking is stained with it.

2. I don't think BTC has the fundamentals to warrant a recovery this time. BCH is now Bitcoin for me, that is the one that will recover.

A proper trader is completely unemotional and totally pragmatic about these things. You don't make calls because you want it to happen. We won't have that long to wait anyway.

i was a big fan of sgbett´s posts when he predicted moves up to astronomical highs back in the days. he was one of my favorite uber bulls and boy he got thrown shit at him for that.  

i was utterly stunned to watch him dive into the big blocker shithole. he wasn't the only OG who did that. I was a noob, some really smart OG went the same way than sgbett and it created some mental pressure on my part. I really tried to understand their logic but couldn't follow. it has been a drama. I think a portion of the 2017 run-up was due to the relief that bitcoin did not fold completely in this nightmare.
seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war was a big learning experience for me. I knew that if it could happen to them it could happen to me in the future, so I tried to mentally get prepared for that moment.

there is an amount of mental discipline and preparedness needed to really become and stay a BTC (!) hodler, that should not be underestimated.

[jbreher]

seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war

'lose it'. haha.

[gentlemand]

i was utterly stunned to watch him dive into the big blocker shithole. he wasn't the only OG who did that. I was a noob, some really smart OG went the same way than sgbett and it created some mental pressure on my part. I really tried to understand their logic but couldn't follow. it has been a drama. I think a portion of the 2017 run-up was due to the relief that bitcoin did not fold completely in this nightmare.
seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war was a big learning experience for me. I knew that if it could happen to them it could happen to me in the future, so I tried to mentally get prepared for that moment.

I can get why people are unhappy at the direction BorgStreamAxaLizardBanksterCoin has taken.

What I can't get is how they nail their colours to versions that knowingly discard every single other important aspect of Bitcoin in pursuit of that type of scaling, and wilfully refuse to acknowledge that might be a problem.

You can like big blocks and ALSO say every 'version' of Bitcoin out there right now fails to respect the principles you believe in. That seems to be the most logical behaviour but I genuinely don't think I've ever seen anyone do it.

[600watt]

i was utterly stunned to watch him dive into the big blocker shithole. he wasn't the only OG who did that. I was a noob, some really smart OG went the same way than sgbett and it created some mental pressure on my part. I really tried to understand their logic but couldn't follow. it has been a drama. I think a portion of the 2017 run-up was due to the relief that bitcoin did not fold completely in this nightmare.
seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war was a big learning experience for me. I knew that if it could happen to them it could happen to me in the future, so I tried to mentally get prepared for that moment.

I can get why people are unhappy at the direction BorgStreamAxaLizardBanksterCoin has taken.

What I can't get is how they nail their colours to versions that knowingly discard every single other important aspect of Bitcoin in pursuit of that type of scaling, and wilfully refuse to acknowledge that might be a problem.

You can like big blocks and ALSO say every 'version' of Bitcoin out there right now fails to respect the principles you believe in. That seems to be the most logical behaviour but I genuinely don't think I've ever seen anyone do it.

Imho they were part of the movement that saved bitcoin in 2017. I think we owe Adam a lot. Payment can develop after it is an established store of value, scaling can be done on additional layers.

[600watt]

seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war

'lose it'. haha.

Holy cow, you found a typo. I would advise you to go through all of my posts and find out that my English skills were never great and went down the drain a lot. You will find mistakes in every single sentence. I was assuming you knew this all along.
Please leave the comfortable position you are in (since this forum is mainly in English which seems to happen to be the language you grew up with) and start to post in a foreign language.

I remember that your comments, even though coming from a big blocker, came across intelligent and well composed in the past but I see you presently revert to some other level of communication. If I would find a typo in your posts, would I really laugh about it publicly?
I don’t think. 

[gentlemand]

I think he was questioning 'losing it'. There was no typo.

Time will tell whether the current direction is a sustainable one. At the very least it's better than forking until you try to sell me Satoshi600VisionCoin and I refuse unless it's MeCoin.

[JayJuanGee]

seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war

'lose it'. haha.

Holy cow, you found a typo. I would advise you to go through all of my posts and find out that my English skills were never great and went down the drain a lot. You will find mistakes in every single sentence. I was assuming you knew this all along.
Please leave the comfortable position you are in (since this forum is mainly in English which seems to happen to be the language you grew up with) and start to post in a foreign language.

I remember that your comments, even though coming from a big blocker, came across intelligent and well composed in the past but I see you presently revert to some other level of communication. If I would find a typo in your posts, would I really laugh about it publicly?
I don’t think. 

I agree that jbreher has largely devolved into a lot of contrarianism that seems to be for the mere sake of contrarianism, but he has been that way for a few years.. and maybe it just seems that he is sometimes being stubborn because he has wedded himself to a lot of ongoing nonsense conclusions.

He can make some good points from time to time and even some of his technically being correct about one thing or another will sometimes make some sense, but still difficult to take him seriously because we likely realized that the BIG blocker nonsense is also hard to really make sense of in terms of really attempting to put forth genuine arguments..

Can almost presume the vast majority of bsv supporters fall into some kind of similar camp, and maybe even more so if they are actively supporting that crap rather than being a mere investor that is hoping for some kind of pumpening (without really studying into the specifics of the scam and/the narcism and the pie in the sky nonsense that Bcash SV is).

So yeah jbreher and sgbett fall into similar camps in terms of their both being capable of presenting interesting and well thought out ideas but being ongoingly influenced by their bagholding fantasies related to the bcashes, big block and even focusing on bsv as if there should be any hope in that nonsense that goes beyond deception and pumpening that might be able to come from time to time through an illiquid asset that has some wealthy nutjobs that are willing to pump it or to otherwise prop up some smoke and mirror baloney litigation or whatever other real world money that it takes to market that baloney.

Furthermore, related to this thread, sgbett still waiting for a large BTC correction that seems less and less likely to come, jbreher does not usually talk up such correction possibilities unless he is all excited about some bcash sv pumpening or some other Big blocker diversion or even other shitcoin support that he may be experiencing that happens to line up with bitcoin bashing.. he might even be in the defi movement in recent times, and not knowing how sgbett might be incorporating defi nonsense in his ongoing waiting for some kind of meaningful BTC correction that is not too likely to come in this cycle... (but never say never, I suppose).

[Febo]

i was utterly stunned to watch him dive into the big blocker shithole. he wasn't the only OG who did that. I was a noob, some really smart OG went the same way than sgbett and it created some mental pressure on my part. I really tried to understand their logic but couldn't follow. it has been a drama. I think a portion of the 2017 run-up was due to the relief that bitcoin did not fold completely in this nightmare.
seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war was a big learning experience for me. I knew that if it could happen to them it could happen to me in the future, so I tried to mentally get prepared for that moment.

That is a Bitcoins curse. You lose 1 IQ point for each 10 million of USD you gain. Some early adopters already went totally insane. We should all better get ready for the 2021. If you guys think 2020 is something you are for a huge surprise.

[gentlemand]

That is a Bitcoins curse. You lose 1 IQ point for each 10 million of USD you gain. Some early adopters already went totally insane. We should all better get ready for the 2021. If you guys think 2020 is something you are for a huge surprise.

I can live with my IQ dropping from 8001 to 8000. Is it really that little? That sounds like one hell of a deal to me.

There must be a few people lingering with well over 1000 coins. I wonder what they'll be moved to do, if they're capable of still making vocalisations.

[jbreher]

seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war

'lose it'. haha.

Holy cow, you found a typo.

Nope. No typo. The problem is within what seems to be the reasoning. Specifically, the reasoning that those whom prefer scaling solutions of other branches than that of BTC's have 'lost it'. But whatevs.

[jbreher]

jbreher does not usually talk up such correction possibilities unless he is all excited about some bcash sv pumpening or some other Big blocker diversion or even other shitcoin support that he may be experiencing that happens to line up with bitcoin bashing.

Naaah. I usually don't bring up those other Bitcoins to begin with. I usually mention such when others start uttering inane ignorant untruths about them as if their fevered frenetic dreams are fairly factual. Or perhaps if I am publicly maligned. As an individual or a class.

Though the careful reader will no doubt note that in this twig I mentioned neither BSV nor BCH until this very post.

[STT]

I'd rather say the OP was right not wrong. we did get an unbelievable sell off in March this year for reasons nobody would predict.   The exact low price in the title did not ring up and its not reasonable to really wait for it after such a low and recovery.    Im not sure anyone successful would act this way, an exact price is not important compared to how the price action acts.    Dollar is not an accurate standard, its not static, its not linked to any fixed definition so how are we expecting a price call of this magnitude and time span to be precisely accurate.    Roughly within a thousand or so it was close enough already.

I seem to remember him insisting it would reach $1500 some day and then that would be that.

I've made that mistake with tech stocks, invested near the bottom prices now they are ridiculous high but some are justified by growth and earnings.   Fairly sure facebook on ipo about halved before rising 1000%, Im sure lots called these negatively for a few reasons.   Cheap debt and easy money confuses many bears, classic take is amateur investors will sell too early on expanding prospects and hold onto those in decline.    Profit margin expansion is exponential in its effect on a balance sheet, typically this makes commodity shares quite bonkers often and perhaps BTC is a commodity & similar movement.

[600watt]

seeing smarter guys, OG´s with brains to totally lose it in that war

'lose it'. haha.

Holy cow, you found a typo.

Nope. No typo. The problem is within what seems to be the reasoning. Specifically, the reasoning that those whom prefer scaling solutions of other branches than that of BTC's have 'lost it'. But whatevs.

sorry for my rant, I really did not understand why you would do that.

[JayJuanGee]

jbreher does not usually talk up such correction possibilities unless he is all excited about some bcash sv pumpening or some other Big blocker diversion or even other shitcoin support that he may be experiencing that happens to line up with bitcoin bashing.

Naaah. I usually don't bring up those other Bitcoins to begin with. 

A major aspect of your problem.. believing that there is even such a thing as "other bitcoins"... rrrrriiiiiiiiiggggghhhhhtttt.

[Torque]

sgbett goes into hiding when the price action is up and up, proving him wrong.

Then he waits for a strong dip to show up on this thread again, claiming he'll "soon" be right.

Classic troll. 

[Febo]

I'd rather say the OP was right not wrong. we did get an unbelievable sell off in March this year for reasons nobody would predict.  

His prediction for bottom was not this March but next March. That is quite a big difference when real bottom was already 2 years ago.

[sgbett]

sgbett goes into hiding when the price action is up and up, proving him wrong.

Then he waits for a strong dip to show up on this thread again, claiming he'll "soon" be right.

Classic troll.  

Well the depends on you definition of soon (time is running out hey, feb '21 only 6 months away)

I'm not too surprised at this current rally - all this helicopter money has to go somewhere - but I would be surprised if it makes it to the ~$500k price range that one might estimate if this proves to be the start of a run up that looks like the last one...

there is an amount of mental discipline and preparedness needed to really become and stay a BTC (!) hodler, that should not be underestimated.

That part became relatively easy compared to the process of changing your mind about a deeply held conviction. see e.g: https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-the-problem-with-learning-is-unlearning

The decision was made almost impossible because of real world real world financial attachment, I think the only way I was able to do it it was because (as pointed out up thread) I'm ok with being a contrarian (ya'll remember slashdot's view on bitcoin back in 2011!).

I'm not out to change anyone else's mind, but I will continue to defend my position. I've come to the conclusion it doesn't matter now what "mom and pop retail investors" do, as we are entering a phase where Bitcoin's use value will exceed it's speculative value, and this is made all the more possible by BTC and the alt coin trash casino continuing to distract the speculators with promises of fiat riches! Just need a couple more LINKs and BSV will be out of the t10 on coinmarketcap!

Anyway, I want to re-iterate that I very much appreciate the continued discussion, so thanks to everyone for their input so far. Invaluable insights!