Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[nutildah]

The main problem for bears is that they have been fighting against the single most powerful entity in the known universe: the Federal Reserve. There's too many newly-printed dollars circulating about that need a home and at least a few billion of them were going to find their way into bitcoin, sooner or later.

[1715304256]

1715304256

[1715304256]

1715304256

[hisslyness]

Kudos for sticking to your date at least. Most people would claim it was based on the Ethiopian calendar when things weren't going their way. Still plenty of time between now and then but we'd need some extinction level shit to get anywhere near it.

maybe COVID-21 ?

[gentlemand]

maybe COVID-21 ?

Nah. You need a brand new sensation for another shock that tumultuous. That can only happen once. Second time around we know what's in store, even if another version is worse.

[fabiorem]

maybe COVID-21 ?

Nah. You need a brand new sensation for another shock that tumultuous. That can only happen once. Second time around we know what's in store, even if another version is worse.

They can use HAARP to make holograms for a fake alien invasion.
They once simulated a second sun, by heating the ionosphere.

As it stands now, sgbett missed one zero for february 2021. And it will be the bottom for the next cycle.

[Febo]

maybe COVID-21 ?

Nah. You need a brand new sensation for another shock that tumultuous. That can only happen once. Second time around we know what's in store, even if another version is worse.

NASA to make major announcement about the Moon on Monday. So that is probably it. Year 2020 in full will start on Monday. We have not seen anything yet so far.

[Wexlike]

How does it feel ?

[hotpassion]

I want to hear Sgbett's opinion now. He predicted BTC price will be crashed to 2483 in early 2021 and there are only few months left but the BTC price is nearly 16k now! I wish I hadn't found and read this thread! I have sold most of my btc portfolio few months ago due to trusting his prediction. Damn.

[nutildah]

I want to hear Segbet's opinion now. He predicted BTC price will be crashed to 2483 in early 2021 and there are only few months left but the BTC price is nearly 16k now! I wish I hadn't found and read this thread! I have sold most of my btc portfolio few months ago due to trusting his prediction. Damn.

Story checks out

From his posts, I see sgbett is a big holder of BSV and he went all for BSV. He said BSV is the real bitcoin, not BTC. He believe BSV will "replace" BTC by 2021, as BSV price will be $2k+ while BTC will be sub $3k. Sgbett is a very smart guy and I'm very impressed with his previous predictions about BTC prices. But by now, some years after the BCH and BSV were "born", we all see that BTC is still the head of cryptocurrency train and I don't think there will be one day, when BTC is crashing down to sub $3k, the BSV still rising up to 2k$. I think if the worst case happen when BTC will go down to sub 3k$, the BSV price will be under $100 for sure.

However, and as you probably know already, your loss is on you. I would never take advice from random people on this forum, no matter how smart they sound to you. Many people here have turned the art of making themselves seem smarter than they actually are into a profession.

Especially when it comes to price predictions, bitcoiners as a specie are notoriously shitty: on any given day 90% of forecasts are just made by blowhards talking out of their ass for the sake of establishing clout and the other 10% happen to be momentarily correct, though mainly due to the "broken clock right twice a day"-principle.

In short, nobody here really knows what they're talking about, and if they tell you otherwise, you should immediately be suspicious of them.

[gentlemand]

I'm hoping the above is a bit of an ironic poke? If not then that's something of a shocker. Everyone on here has an agenda of some sort, even if they're not aware of it. In this particular case the awareness is overwhelming.

I wouldn't look to a forum for advice on how to wipe my nose, let alone anything as potentially berserk as this.

If it's true then you still have time for your 'dreams' to come true but maybe some alternative plans should be put in place too.

[thecodebear]

I want to hear Sgbett's opinion now. He predicted BTC price will be crashed to 2483 in early 2021 and there are only few months left but the BTC price is nearly 16k now! I wish I hadn't found and read this thread! I have sold most of my btc portfolio few months ago due to trusting his prediction. Damn.

Are you serious?? Oh god never just trust some random internet person's advice. This prediction has clearly been very bogus for the past 18 months (basically since April 1st 2019 when the bear market ended)! I think there have been lots of people on this thread pointing out how terrible this prediction has been for a very very long time. Sorry you got duped by such terrible advice. Always do your own research and don't just believe someone on the internet, especially when everyone else is pointing out how wrong they are!

Also sgbett has very clearly shown on these forums that he is a BSV shill. NEVER trust some trash altcoin pusher, that's just basic crypto advice. If someone is saying bitcoin isn't really bitcoin but these random altcoin is the real bitcoin, run away quickly.

[STT]

It wasnt bogus, I think he is genuine and originally at that time in 2017 it was a reasonable take to call a top but it wasnt forever so 3 years on the prediction is looking more then a little frayed at the edges and possibly ready to unwind altogether.      Especially this year they printed more new dollars then existed total in 2009 I read somewhere, thats going to alter your aim more then a little.   Thats nothing like the hard money I grew up with, the dollar standard is closer to quicksand in consistency nowadays; its really not sgbetts fault if the prediction is off base now.

That can only happen once.

My worry on covid was mutation possible, the common cold evolves every year.   If the covid event were observed not to be a one off but a recurring problem every year & 1 vaccine cant solve it then you have a new especially negative dynamic and that news could rock all markets and tank prices.   Most variants previously have not had this strange dynamic of bar bell symptoms ranging from nothing to totally lethal, so that part would be best never seen again.
   I can easily imagine stock indexes halving in price and many prices with especially negative news of a completely natural event.   Doesnt have to be the flu theres a variety of normal deflationary events that occur regularly throughout time, volcanos and tidal waves as well as plague I count as natural despite rumours of bio weapons.   Thats why QE fails I think because deflation is natural and unavoidable and if true that destroys the FED policy to always water down debt costs, defaults will happen eventually.    A system which cannot adapt fails, the tree that does not bend breaks.

The recent action on BTC certainly broke a nearterm trend going back to the July rise and decline and quite possibly its broke out upwards all the way from the decline dating back to the start of this thread.  Im not sure yet but it could be part of a bigger move, I'd rather it confirmed in a hard way to squeeze the rag dry before really moving big but I cant see how it revisits the March lows or anywhere near to the OP 2.4k target

[gentlemand]

My worry on covid was mutation possible, the common cold evolves every year.   If the covid event were observed not to be a one off but a recurring problem every year & 1 vaccine cant solve it then you have a new especially negative dynamic and that news could rock all markets and tank prices.   Most variants previously have not had this strange dynamic of bar bell symptoms ranging from nothing to totally lethal, so that part would be best never seen again.

Decline yes, but not a plunge like that again because of that. And humanity doesn't have any choice but to take on the chin and plough on. If it becomes an eternal fact of life a route to cope will be figured out.

[hotpassion]

Are you serious?? Oh god never just trust some random internet person's advice. This prediction has clearly been very bogus for the past 18 months (basically since April 1st 2019 when the bear market ended)! I think there have been lots of people on this thread pointing out how terrible this prediction has been for a very very long time. Sorry you got duped by such terrible advice. Always do your own research and don't just believe someone on the internet, especially when everyone else is pointing out how wrong they are!

Also sgbett has very clearly shown on these forums that he is a BSV shill. NEVER trust some trash altcoin pusher, that's just basic crypto advice. If someone is saying bitcoin isn't really bitcoin but these random altcoin is the real bitcoin, run away quickly.

You are right. I should do my own research and should not be affected by other's ideas here in the forum. Someone may predict correct one time but his predictions may not be correct the 2nd time. We need to trust on ourself, trust on BTC.
My story:
I bought BTCs in 2016 - 2017 when the price is just from $500 to around $7k and didn't sell when it reached ATH in 2017 year end. From 2018 to mid 2020, I still bought in whenever I have fund available. However, I converted 80% of my portfolio to fiat in July, August when the price is near 12k, because I thought this maybe the Top price of 2020. It was such a bad decision. I will buy BTC again when the next correction happen. And I will not sell my BTCs again before it reach 100k, even I have to wait for the next cycle in 2025-2026.

[JayJuanGee]

Are you serious?? Oh god never just trust some random internet person's advice. This prediction has clearly been very bogus for the past 18 months (basically since April 1st 2019 when the bear market ended)! I think there have been lots of people on this thread pointing out how terrible this prediction has been for a very very long time. Sorry you got duped by such terrible advice. Always do your own research and don't just believe someone on the internet, especially when everyone else is pointing out how wrong they are!

Also sgbett has very clearly shown on these forums that he is a BSV shill. NEVER trust some trash altcoin pusher, that's just basic crypto advice. If someone is saying bitcoin isn't really bitcoin but these random altcoin is the real bitcoin, run away quickly.

You are right. I should do my own research and should not be affected by other's ideas here in the forum. Someone may predict correct one time but his predictions may not be correct the 2nd time. We need to trust on ourself, trust on BTC.
My story:
I bought BTCs in 2016 - 2017 when the price is just from $500 to around $7k and didn't sell when it reached ATH in 2017 year end. From 2018 to mid 2020, I still bought in whenever I have fund available. However, I converted 80% of my portfolio to fiat in July, August when the price is near 12k, because I thought this maybe the Top price of 2020. It was such a bad decision. I will buy BTC again when the next correction happen. And I will not sell my BTCs again before it reach 100k, even I have to wait for the next cycle in 2025-2026.

Waiting for a correction may or may not play out.

And, surely each of us would approach such a situation with a different approach... geez, we had a correction to $10k in late August/Early September - and for the most part that was the last meaningful correction that we had.. all the way from $10k-ish in early September to nearly $16k in the last couple of days.  Sure, there might be a meaningful correction, but there might not.

For the last year and a half or so, I had been suggesting that if we break above $13,880 (which we did, of course) then the next meaningful resistance would be in the sub $17,250 price arena.. and if we break above $17,250, then we enter into no man's land, which is largely the price range between about $17,250 and $23,500... which it is hard to expect meaningful corrections in the no man's land price range...

Anyhow, you should consider your situation in such a way that you feel comfortable that you are prepared for both UP and DOWN... and surely we might even experience a 50% correction from here.. but sometimes, bitcoin gets into a kind of punishment mood.. and keeps recking anyone who is either shorting it or expecting down or flat.. which causes nocoiners to rush in, which may or may not work out for them... so the better advice has already been provided in terms of listening to some random dweeb on the interwebs.. and my advice is almost always to make sure that you are prepared for both UP and DOWN in both psychological and financial ways.. and sometimes preparing for such (both) can take a decently long time to work out.. especially if you have made some decently-sized mistakes along the way (which seems to be the case with you, hotpassion, if we can actually take you at your word for having had sold all your coins at $12k-ish.. and failed/refused to buy back when the BTC price dropped because you were hopening for lower prices... blah blah blah... greed and gambling is frequently an enemy and incrementalism tends to work a bit better, even if it tends to take quite a bit longer for real peeps to really solidify)..

[philipma1957]

Are you serious?? Oh god never just trust some random internet person's advice. This prediction has clearly been very bogus for the past 18 months (basically since April 1st 2019 when the bear market ended)! I think there have been lots of people on this thread pointing out how terrible this prediction has been for a very very long time. Sorry you got duped by such terrible advice. Always do your own research and don't just believe someone on the internet, especially when everyone else is pointing out how wrong they are!

Also sgbett has very clearly shown on these forums that he is a BSV shill. NEVER trust some trash altcoin pusher, that's just basic crypto advice. If someone is saying bitcoin isn't really bitcoin but these random altcoin is the real bitcoin, run away quickly.

You are right. I should do my own research and should not be affected by other's ideas here in the forum. Someone may predict correct one time but his predictions may not be correct the 2nd time. We need to trust on ourself, trust on BTC.
My story:
I bought BTCs in 2016 - 2017 when the price is just from $500 to around $7k and didn't sell when it reached ATH in 2017 year end. From 2018 to mid 2020, I still bought in whenever I have fund available. However, I converted 80% of my portfolio to fiat in July, August when the price is near 12k, because I thought this maybe the Top price of 2020. It was such a bad decision. I will buy BTC again when the next correction happen. And I will not sell my BTCs again before it reach 100k, even I have to wait for the next cycle in 2025-2026.

It is not that you sold at 12k.  You failed to buy back some when it went under 10k.

If you are going to time market and guess at a price. In your case 12K you need to time market for buy the dip.

lets make it simple you had 10 btc and sold 8 for 12k each.

that is 96 k. so when coin dropped to 9999 you should have purchased the entire 8 btc  back.

it would have cost you 80 k. meaning you have same 10 coins and 16k cash.

so the fail was not the 80% sale in august and july .  the fail was not buying back on the dip.

my example used 10 btc and selling 8 btc.  you end up with same 10 btc and 16k profit.

but it works with

1 btc and .8 btc. you end up with same 1 btc and 1600 cash 💰

[sgbett]

Hello folks, just wanted to pop in because in the past I've been accused of only showing up when things are going my way

I'm not totally surprised that the price action is so ebullient, and I was certainly wrong on the way we get to $2k but I still think thats where its headed. (I also remember being on the other side of the fence over the years, and how ridiculous I must sound to you!)

To the guy that bought at $500 and sold at $12k - dude, look at your gains!!! Lamenting what could have been is a terrible thing to do if you are trading! It's way easier selling on the way up than panic selling when it comes crashing down. In any case I don't advocate trading, I've learned my lessons.

Finally to those that still use the "BSV shill" phrase - I'm not suggesting anyone buy BSV. It makes no difference to me if people buy it, because if the price goes up for speculative reasons thats meaningless (that person will want to sell it). The price of Bitcoin going up because its becoming more and more useful... thats what I am interested in.

I'm also incredibly patient, the first 10 years were hardest. I think the next 10 will be much easier, having been around the block.

Enjoy it whilst it lasts

[Torque]

I'm not totally surprised that the price action is so ebullient, and I was certainly wrong on the way we get to $2k but I still think thats where its headed.

sgbett having a beer

[nutildah]

Hello folks, just wanted to pop in because in the past I've been accused of only showing up when things are going my way

I'm not totally surprised that the price action is so ebullient, and I was certainly wrong on the way we get to $2k but I still think thats where its headed. (I also remember being on the other side of the fence over the years, and how ridiculous I must sound to you!)

You sound ridiculous for the simple reason that you are ridiculous. Short of an extinction-level event, we're never coming anywhere near $2k ever again (at least not for decades). Just because you're older now that you decide to cross over to the wrong side of the fence it doesn't also mean that you are smarter or wiser.

The price of Bitcoin BSV going up because its becoming more and more useful... thats what I am interested in.

Have fun waiting. How many laps around the block do you have to take before you realize nobody wants to use a coin developed by a con artist?

[sgbett]

...Short of an extinction-level event...

"We have such sights to show you"

[buwaytress]

Finally to those that still use the "BSV shill" phrase - I'm not suggesting anyone buy BSV. It makes no difference to me if people buy it, because if the price goes up for speculative reasons thats meaningless (that person will want to sell it). The price of Bitcoin going up because its becoming more and more useful... thats what I am interested in.

I'm also incredibly patient, the first 10 years were hardest. I think the next 10 will be much easier, having been around the block.

Enjoy it whilst it lasts

Actually, I never pay any attention to shill accusations. Everyone's a shill of some sort, and I rather think anyone with any skin in BSV's now really just quietly accepted that their fortunes ultimately -- in this lifetimes anyway -- rely on Bitcoin doing well. If BTC goes to $2k, I can only imagine the panic and mass culling of altcoins after.

As you said, BTC going up because it's useful is of interest to anyone, agnostic of the blockchain or network they profess.