Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

[1714783951]

1714783951

[1714783951]

1714783951

[1714783951]

1714783951

[coinbiz]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What's your explanation for $2483 in Feb 2021?  What do you mean by "MtGox said so"? 

Btw, as far as the FCA ban going into effect on Jan 6, does that mean UK residents won't be able to buy crypto (legally) at all?  How would they enforce that besides blocking exchanges/access online?

[JayJuanGee]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

Oh gawd... 

I see that you are still full of hopium for some kind of pie in the sky blackswan-type event,... and even if such a very unlikely thing were to happen, you would just end up getting lucky in your guess based on some kind of random event rather than any actual meaningful predictive power in any of your ongoing spouted hopium-filled foney baloney.

 

[exstasie]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

LOL. BTC finally shakes the trees a little bit (after pushing new all time highs for weeks, mind you) so of course you had to troll us with your doomsday prediction. How Dr. Doom of you.

Sub-$3K is over. Sub-$10K is over too. Sub-$20K? Probably that too, but let's see. It's still within the realm of possibility.

[JayJuanGee]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

LOL. BTC finally shakes the trees a little bit (after pushing new all time highs for weeks, mind you) so of course you had to troll us with your doomsday prediction. How Dr. Doom of you.

Sub-$3K is over. Sub-$10K is over too. Sub-$20K? Probably that too, but let's see. It's still within the realm of possibility.

Yep.... I agree with you about those points, exstasie... and surely sub-$20k is within the a reasonable realm of corrections that could happen, but sometimes it is seeming that even that those levels of prices might not be witnessed again... but never say never in bitcoin.. even when the odds are seeming to be quite on the low end and the momentum is still a bit tilted still in the other direction (meaning UPpity)..,. but sure momentum can change, and when such momentum does change there are going to be whales (and even retail piling on) that will try to take advantage of such changed momentum to push the BTC price as low as they can and to keep it in a low kind of state for as long as they can... but we surely do not appear to be at any point, currently, where there are clear signs of such a momentum change.. even if there has been a wee bit of a pause in the recent UPpity.

[tertius993]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What's your explanation for $2483 in Feb 2021?  What do you mean by "MtGox said so"? 

Btw, as far as the FCA ban going into effect on Jan 6, does that mean UK residents won't be able to buy crypto (legally) at all?  How would they enforce that besides blocking exchanges/access online?

The FCA “ban” is purely for crypto derivatives and even then only for “non-professional” investors (what ever that means) - buying/selling/owning crypto is still perfectly legal in the UK.

[hotpassion]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What will you do if the BTC price don't crash down to sub-$3k in Feb as you forecasted?  Will you dare to eat your own c**k live on TV like John McAfee said in 2017? 

[nutildah]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What will you do if the BTC price don't crash down to sub-$3k in Feb as you forecasted?  Will you dare to eat your own c**k live on TV like John McAfee said in 2017? 

I just spoke with his publicity manager and he assures me sgbett has agreed to be whipped in the nuts by a cricket ball in a sock on national TV if his February prediction doesn't come true. We've already signed the contract, so it's a done deal.

[JayJuanGee]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What will you do if the BTC price don't crash down to sub-$3k in Feb as you forecasted?  Will you dare to eat your own c**k live on TV like John McAfee said in 2017? 

I just spoke with his publicity manager and he assures me sgbett has agreed to be whipped in the nuts by a cricket ball in a sock on national TV if his February prediction doesn't come true. We've already signed the contract, so it's a done deal.

Looking forward to viewing this event. 

Congrats to Sgbett on being ready, willing and able to execute boldness.

 

[Febo]

Hopefully in a month time we will get new prediction out. Wonder if it will be a bottom call or a top call. Maybe we will be lucky and will be both. Bottom and top.  Or even two tops like we had in 2013 cycle.  That would be fun.

[Wind_FURY]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What will you do if the BTC price don't crash down to sub-$3k in Feb as you forecasted?  Will you dare to eat your own c**k live on TV like John McAfee said in 2017? 

I just spoke with his publicity manager and he assures me sgbett has agreed to be whipped in the nuts by a cricket ball in a sock on national TV if his February prediction doesn't come true. We've already signed the contract, so it's a done deal.

Looking forward to viewing this event. 

Congrats to Sgbett on being ready, willing and able to execute boldness.

 

OR, why not plainly admit that he was simply WRONG, and that all this topic is actually about is to spread FUD about Bitcoin, and promote his forked-shitcoin-from-a-forked-Bitcoin-shitcoin.

[sgbett]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What will you do if the BTC price don't crash down to sub-$3k in Feb as you forecasted?  Will you dare to eat your own c**k live on TV like John McAfee said in 2017?  

I just spoke with his publicity manager and he assures me sgbett has agreed to be whipped in the nuts by a cricket ball in a sock on national TV if his February prediction doesn't come true. We've already signed the contract, so it's a done deal.

lol

OR, why not plainly admit that he was simply WRONG, and that all this topic is actually about is to spread FUD about Bitcoin, and promote his forked-shitcoin-from-a-forked-Bitcoin-shitcoin.

oh windy, always with the ulterior motive! the thread is plainly my speculation on price action If you follow from the start it was calling the top, then it was projecting what the bottom might be if it followed the same cycle as MtGox. Obviously its been a while since then given it was a 2 year prediction and a lot has happened - any mention of BSV is just me being honest about my thoughts - I don't *think* I have recommended anyone buy it for price appreciation purposes.

It's clear by now that I am wrong in my prediction, even if by some miracle BTC went to 2k in feb *I WOULD STILL BE WRONG* because it would go there because of some - as JJG puts it - black swan type event. Not because it replayed the cycle after gox, which as you will recall was the thesis behind my prediction.

You can all ascribe motives for that but not once in the history of bitcoin talk have I ever not been honest about what I think will happen - especially in such a way that would be intended to deceive anyone into doing something. So that line af argument gets a tiresome, regardless I fully expect people to keep beating that dead horse. Dogmatic thinking will get you in trouble, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but in time. Those that have taken me at face value, thank you for your respect.

In summary:

- top called give or take suggested $3700 bottom
- revised bottom call to $4100
- relentless mockery all the way down to sub 4k, whoops!
- more detailed extrapolation of bottom based on first bounce and gox history suggesting the $2483 target
- 2 years of that pattern holding
- finally I acknowledge pattern is breaking down

What I did not predict was the extent to which tether would start printing USDT, which I suspect is probably a primary driver in this run. I think without that then price discovery would have played out as predicted and now would be the time to buy in for the next run (with the caveat that I doubt there would be one, given BTC utility is shot now compared to BSV and indeed all those damn alts that have profited so handsomely from core's butchering of the Bitcoin protocol).

Anyway I feel like trying to predict anything at the moment is a lottery with so many court cases up in the air and such tomfoolery in the market place where we go now is anyone's guess, so let's do it - guess the price on 19th Feb. I already chose $2483 so looks like I am going to be the furthest away

What do you all think? I'll collate guesses in this post. Deadline is 31st Jan 23:59:59 UTC

$2483	sgbett
$24830	philipma1957
$33553	JayJuanGee

[philipma1957]

Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What will you do if the BTC price don't crash down to sub-$3k in Feb as you forecasted?  Will you dare to eat your own c**k live on TV like John McAfee said in 2017?  

I just spoke with his publicity manager and he assures me sgbett has agreed to be whipped in the nuts by a cricket ball in a sock on national TV if his February prediction doesn't come true. We've already signed the contract, so it's a done deal.

lol

OR, why not plainly admit that he was simply WRONG, and that all this topic is actually about is to spread FUD about Bitcoin, and promote his forked-shitcoin-from-a-forked-Bitcoin-shitcoin.

oh windy, always with the ulterior motive! the thread is plainly my speculation on price action If you follow from the start it was calling the top, then it was projecting what the bottom might be if it followed the same cycle as MtGox. Obviously its been a while since then given it was a 2 year prediction and a lot has happened - any mention of BSV is just me being honest about my thoughts - I don't *think* I have recommended anyone buy it for price appreciation purposes.

It's clear by now that I am wrong in my prediction, even if by some miracle BTC went to 2k in feb *I WOULD STILL BE WRONG* because it would go there because of some - as JJG puts it - black swan type event. Not because it replayed the cycle after gox, which as you will recall was the thesis behind my prediction.

You can all ascribe motives for that but not once in the history of bitcoin talk have I ever not been honest about what I think will happen - especially in such a way that would be intended to deceive anyone into doing something. So that line af argument gets a tiresome, regardless I fully expect people to keep beating that dead horse. Dogmatic thinking will get you in trouble, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but in time. Those that have taken me at face value, thank you for your respect.

In summary:

- top called give or take suggested $3700 bottom
- revised bottom call to $4100
- relentless mockery all the way down to sub 4k, whoops!
- more detailed extrapolation of bottom based on first bounce and gox history suggesting the $2483 target
- 2 years of that pattern holding
- finally I acknowledge pattern is breaking down

What I did not predict was the extent to which tether would start printing USDT, which I suspect is probably a primary driver in this run. I think without that then price discovery would have played out as predicted and now would be the time to buy in for the next run (with the caveat that I doubt there would be one, given BTC utility is shot now compared to BSV and indeed all those damn alts that have profited so handsomely from core's butchering of the Bitcoin protocol).

Anyway I feel like trying to predict anything at the moment is a lottery with so many court cases up in the air and such tomfoolery in the market place where we go now is anyone's guess, so let's do it - guess the price on 19th Feb. I already chose $2483 so looks like I am going to be the furthest away

What do you all think? I'll collate guesses in this post. Deadline is 31st Jan 23:59:59 UTC

$2483

sgbett

You want us to pick a bottom correct?

24830 seems okay to me puts you off by a factor of ten

I also changed the top to ?

Since thread is now about the bottom not the old top pick in which you were close IIRC

[sgbett]

no top or bottom calling, just plan ol guess the price on 19th Feb & try not to be any more wrong than me

[Torque]

no top or bottom calling, just plan ol guess the price on 19th Feb & try not to be any more wrong than me

Well look who shows up to troll, right on time. 

[philipma1957]

no top or bottom calling, just plan ol guess the price on 19th Feb & try not to be any more wrong than me

Okay 24830   10x   your guess. feb 11 2021

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out.......]

I was vacillating a bit about whether to send a merit regarding what I consider a bit of a delusional explanation, even though it also did raise a few points.. so what the fuck.. I sent a merit.. even though from my perspective there do seem to be quite a few delusional aspects contained in your explanation.. and even a kind of false sense of importance in regards to anyone's ability to actually be able to make some kind of concrete prediction that would amount to anything much more than luck if their expectations of future events ended up playing out.

What I did not predict was the extent to which tether would start printing USDT, which I suspect is probably a primary driver in this run.

Oh gawd, sgbett.. that is such a belabored talking point that does not really seem to bear out in regards to logical reality... have you ever heard about some of the other theses in respect to stock to flow (seeming to continue to play out) or relatively BIG-mouthed and quite articulate institutional players like Michael Saylor acting in alignment with his BIG words and seeming to cause some contagiousness regarding rationale for institutions and individuals to be investing/hedging in bitcoin during such crazy-ass monetary irresponsibility times in which we seem to be living.  Sure, Saylor et al might not be specifically driving BTC's recent price move - but surely could be adding contribution to it (exacerbating a preexisting condition)... 

By the way, I hardly have many sympathies when people attempt to place too much emphasis on single (or narrow) explanation theories when it comes to bitcoin's price dynamics, and I try to avoid committing such seemingly errors myself.

I think without that then price discovery would have played out as predicted and now would be the time to buy in for the next run (with the caveat that I doubt there would be one,

deserving of a pretty BIG eyeroll here.   

given BTC utility is shot now compared to BSV and indeed all those damn alts that have profited so handsomely from core's butchering of the Bitcoin protocol).

The market seems to show that bitcoin is actually winning in regards to these nonsense talking points, but sure, you have rights to continue to spew them out and there are likely a lot of dummies (and even relatively smart peeps, too) who actually believe such nonsense talking points.

By the way, have you ever heard of the utility of being able to privately retain value and not having to go through any third party to transact/transfer such value, coupled with a high degree of confidence that the value that you hold is embedded into a fixed quantity that is NOT going to be diluted away from you?  Holy fucking shit!!!!!!  there seems to be a lot of utility in that mere concept of such a thing existing, and bitcoin happens to be such a thing that had never existed before and there is no other asset class (including your stupid-ass imitation scam coin, bsv) so far, that even comes close to providing the paradigm-shifting wowness of bitcoin.

Anyway I feel like trying to predict anything at the moment is a lottery with so many court cases up in the air and such tomfoolery in the market place where we go now is anyone's guess, so let's do it - guess the price on 19th Feb. I already chose $2483 so looks like I am going to be the furthest away

What do you all think? I'll collate guesses in this post. Deadline is 31st Jan 23:59:59 UTC

$2483	sgbett
$24830	philipma1957

Sure, a fun little game that largely is due to randomness.  By the way, how are you measuring the guess of the BTC price on 2/19? Do you do the weighted average for the day or the closing price or the low of the day?  which exchange or averager? a range of all possibilities would likely put the 95% of the BTC price bellcurve between about $12.5k and $100k, so any price guessed within such range would be reasonable with prices in the middle of the bell curve to be more likely... (phillip's guess seems pretty damned reasonable to me, too) So, with a bit of a leaning towards the lower middle of that range.. with around 38 days to go, I will randomly guess the weighted BTC price on Bitstamp based on the BTC price posted in this thread for such date to be $33,553...        you fuck 

 

[sgbett]

[edited out.......]

I was vacillating a bit about whether to send a merit regarding what I consider a bit of a delusional explanation, even though it also did raise a few points.. so what the fuck.. I sent a merit..

Thanks for the merit, I hear your comments and I am interested to see how reality plays out!

Sure, a fun little game that largely is due to randomness.  By the way, how are you measuring the guess of the BTC price on 2/19? Do you do the weighted average for the day or the closing price or the low of the day?  which exchange or averager? a range of all possibilities would likely put the 95% of the BTC price bellcurve between about $12.5k and $100k, so any price guessed within such range would be reasonable with prices in the middle of the bell curve to be more likely... (phillip's guess seems pretty damned reasonable to me, too) So, with a bit of a leaning towards the lower middle of that range.. with around 38 days to go, I will randomly guess the weighted BTC price on Bitstamp based on the BTC price posted in this thread for such date to be $33,553...        you fuck  

 

I think I've said in the past "Bitstamp or GTFO" when it comes to price, in any case no money is on the line so I didn't really feel the need to write an extensive list of terms and conditions. It is indeed a bit of fun based on something largely due to randomness. Glad to you have you in the game

[sgbett]

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

relevant yet? I'm not sure. Perhaps one more leg up? The fact that losing $30k didn't cause more of a slide must bode well.

I cut in half what remaining exposure I had (XBT Provider ETF) at around $35k. As it's been delisted due to UK FCA regs I can't buy back, so I'm closer to all in BSV than ever before

[Wind_FURY]

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

relevant yet? I'm not sure. Perhaps one more leg up? The fact that losing $30k didn't cause more of a slide must bode well.

$30,000 might be the new $10,000. Everyone will be saying, “We won’t see Bitcoin below $30,000 anymore”, but we will, and when we will, it’s actually just another golden opportunity to buy.

I cut in half what remaining exposure I had (XBT Provider ETF) at around $35k.

You’ll regret that. I believe 6 digits will be this year. You should buy actual Bitcoin, place bids below $30,000.

As it's been delisted due to UK FCA regs I can't buy back, so I'm closer to all in BSV than ever before

You are on the worst kind of hopium.