Now that BITCOIN hits the 18K$ USD LEVEL.... When will this GIANT BUBBLE burst?

[jimbo2000]

I don't get why we have so many threads on when the bubble will burst.

If I would think Bitcoin is a bubble, I wouldn't have gotten into it at the first place. (maybe only for very short term gains)
I you got into it and now you feel like it's a bubble, why not just sell your bitcoin and never check this forum again ?

It's the FOMO and pure greed creating all these posts. No interest in Bitcoin as a technology at all.
All these people only buying with $$$ in their mind and afraid to sell to late and miss profits.
If you realy believe in BTC, you would just ride out the next dip (some people call it crash) and hodl for the long term. 

Even if you really believed in bitcoin that would be a stupid thing to do if you knew there was a bubble and it was about to burst. You could simply sell your bitcoin right now and then buy back much more once the dip had happened. There's a big difference between believing in bitcoin and blindly believing in bitcoin and thinking that it can simply go up forever.

[ParallelSquid]

This thing so called Giant Bubble has already burst if its intention was really to blow everyone there investments. But I dont think so, Bitcoin have been solid ever since. LOL

[fabiorem]

To burst, it would need to be a bubble first, which it isnt.

It needs to reach 2013 growth levels to be considered a bubble. That is, the price need to reach 100k in just three months. Only then it will burst.

Bitcoin is still very cheap. I dont know why nocoiners keep moaning about its price, and just dont go and buy some.

[thejaytiesto]

people are hyped in this forum, no discussion about technology details, development and real application. No one cares anything but the number before $. In my opinion, bitcoin is a great potential project, but it does not worth hundreds of billion dollars, the price is just because ppl are FOMO and everyone want to make free money out of it. Bitcoin has many challenges and threats, but most people here are just not able to see it or choose to ignore. Just my two cents.

Bitcoin's first application and most valuable yet is to put X amount of wealth on it and wake up and see you still have X amount of wealth in it (as in same amount of BTC you went to sleep last night). This is security, this is a store of value. Most people don't even transact that much, they just buy and hold it. Seeing it grow is a real application.. it's a savings account. Getting rich by holding BTC is the killer app of BTC. I mean look at your nickname.

It has Risen wayyyyy to fast. The transactions are slow the fees are high to send. This is a disaster for BTC. Enjoy it while it lasts because this is not sustainable.

Like i said before, most people don't transact, so most people don't care. People that want to make tons of smaller payments will have to wait for widespread LN implementation, assuming it works out in the long term.

[BrewMaster]

each time someone calls bitcoin a bubble, it just goes higher and sets a new ATH! it is as if the market wants laugh at those who call bitcoin a bubble

but in all seriousness, to call bitcoin a bubble like OP with absolute certainty is just dumb and if you do it you are either  dumb or trying to spread FUD.

is it a bubble? maybe. we have had a lot of rise and it is hard to believe. but we have also had a lot of adoption, and that has brought a lot of new investors with a lot of money in. that has to lead to a price rise! you can't expect this much attention to bitcoin and have a tiny rise instead.

[yyyf]

i read your post, i believe most of you are stupid and miseducated, given that idea bitcoin is NOT a bubble.

Give yourself some education, it will blow your mind.

[Sir Cross]

In your own words, why do you think BITCOIN is about to burst? Or, at which level it will burst?

This is a textbook example of begging the question.  Tell me, have you stopped beating your wife?

For my part, (1) I don’t think there is a bubble at all; therefore, (2) I don’t think there is such a thing as would burst.  I’ve heard the term “hypermonetization” suggested to explain Bitcoin’s extraordinary growth; but I am lukewarm about that.  I’m studying the evidence and working out my own theory.  Also, (2) I have never beaten my wife—(1) assuming I have a wife; here, that is compound question-begging just like yours!

That's true. The question had the presumption that bitcoin really is a bubble.

Most of the bitcoin hodlers and users don't believe that. Obviously, bitcoin has a lot more potential to grow in the future and therefore wouldn't 'pop' very soon. With that being said, it won't burst anytime soon. The price will just continue to go up and grow even more. OP didn't even cite any reasons why it's a bubble and why it would burst - you simply assumed that it will.

[JanpriX]

Giant bubble? Where do you get this idea, that BTC is in a bubble already right now? Honestly speaking, you should stop reading articles and watching videos that spread false information like that. BTC is not in a bubble now and the price for it hasn't increase enough for us to call it a bubble. What you are seeing right now is the actual effect of people buying this coin around the globe. Many people are FOMOing hard every day just to get a piece/fraction of BTC in any price they can get it. Expect more price increase to come in the future. 

[Imnon]

In your own words, why do you think BITCOIN is about to burst? Or, at which level it will burst?

Sounds that talk about bitcoin is bubble down all think bitcoin is investment way and one of the fastest way to be rich.
Most people who think that the dollar is a bubble is the reason that economic models indicate that the price is rising at limits that no one can predict and thus they say it is a bubble.
up rising from 1000 to 20000 in a year will drive them crazy, so don't think about them.
Invest in the future and forget the past.
it’s future bank and not bubble

[benmartin613]

$18k will be the new bench mark of bitcoin price there will be no bursting that is going to happen, everytime bitcoin reach its all time high people say its a bubble waiting to be burst but bitcoin is still going strong, bursting the bitcoin bubble wont be an easy thing to do.

[HabBear]

In your own words, why do you think BITCOIN is about to burst? Or, at which level it will burst?

I don't know that it will. There's been 12 corrections this year, following 12 significant new high price levels set. These corrections relieve the pressure and tension in the market. I think the growth will just slow and the price will stabilize until there is another significant demand generating activity that arises in the marketplace. It could be related to some new development or in response to a geopolitical issue.

IF there is a bubble that pops, it'll depress the price of bitcoin some and get rid of the rubbish ICOs that are just noise in this marketplace.

[Kingofbitcoin12345]

Ok then I just need to sell some.. Then I’m the weakest hands of all,, so everyone will laughing because you mistakenly believe them,, because in reality they’re intention is just buying on dip.. Been hearing this bubble since 5000$ to 10000$ and up to 15000$ then 19000$ then again.. This issue is not use now to warn everyone but because of self interest and that is sad..

[kokobaba880]

bitcoin will hit more and more records because in the past bitcoin were not that much famous and we want to use this for many transactions. bitcoin is good to buy and hold this money for future bitcoin is very important for me because i can avail the online services. like i have purchase the online server for my website in the payment system of this bitcoin.

[JimboToronto]

The real question is: when will people start to realize that this is not a bubble?

Calling Bitcoin a bubble is like calling the internet or smartphones a fad.

[nullius]

In your own words, why do you think BITCOIN is about to burst? Or, at which level it will burst?

This is a textbook example of begging the question.  Tell me, have you stopped beating your wife?

For my part, (1) I don’t think there is a bubble at all; therefore, (2) I don’t think there is such a thing as would burst.  I’ve heard the term “hypermonetization” suggested to explain Bitcoin’s extraordinary growth; but I am lukewarm about that.  I’m studying the evidence and working out my own theory.  Also, (2) I have never beaten my wife—(1) assuming I have a wife; here, that is compound question-begging just like yours!

That's true. The question had the presumption that bitcoin really is a bubble.

Most of the bitcoin hodlers and users don't believe that. Obviously, bitcoin has a lot more potential to grow in the future and therefore wouldn't 'pop' very soon. With that being said, it won't burst anytime soon. The price will just continue to go up and grow even more. OP didn't even cite any reasons why it's a bubble and why it would burst - you simply assumed that it will.

I am surprised that nobody else picked up on this.  OP’s question-begging was exceptionally blatant.  Crude.  Artless.  Real-life examples from professional politicians and marketers are usually much subtler, and delivered with finesse.

For those in this thread who need an explanation:  “Begging the question” is a commonplace rhetorical sleight of hand and informal fallacy, used to force acceptance of unexamined assumptions.  A popular textbook example is, “Have you stopped beating your wife?”  Either a “yes” or a “no” constitutes an admission of wife-beating.  The unstated question being begged is, “Have you ever beaten your wife?”, with an assumed answer of yes.

The only appropriate response is to reject the question entirely, and demand examination of its assumptions.

N.b. that the term “begging the question” is oft misapplied, especially in Internet discussions.  Here, I have applied it properly.

The real question is: when will people start to realize that this is not a bubble?

Calling Bitcoin a bubble is like calling the internet or smartphones a fad.

As I was just saying on another thread:

Those who remember the 90s, also remember how some people explicitly compared the Web to Dutch tulip mania.  Amazon.com was a “bubble” because a “web site” is not a real thing (just as Bitcoin isn’t “real”).  Nobody will shop at a “website”.  People want to go to the store, and pick things up in their hands.  It’s a fad, driven only by hype and market speculation.  It will fail.  You’re investing in tulip bulbs.

By the end of the 90s, right before the shakeout which mass-exterminated the dot-com equivalent of ICOs, some financial advice columns were filled with mini-lectures about “tulip bulbs”.

I myself pick on Amazon now, because I remember specifically how some self-styled contrarians were obsessed with smug sneers at Amazon.  Two decades later, I suppose the same people are now smug about sending tulip bulbs to Bitcoiners.  Well, they need to make themselves feel better somehow.

[magneto]

In your own words, why do you think BITCOIN is about to burst? Or, at which level it will burst?

In my opinion, minimum it is going to go up to is $27-28k. That is if it doesnot break the $30k level which i think it will. So the bubble could really well stretch out to something like $33-35k before crashing in my opinion.

Right now, it's purely speculation and i doubt that there is that many rational actors left in the markets anymore. Everyone's in there for a gamble. And even though right now bitcoin's still bullish, it's hard to see this sustain for years to come.

We can't 20x BTC's price every single year, that's for sure. So either this ends with a crash or growth stops and even goes to reverse slowly.

[AmazonStuff]

Bitcoin is already too expensive and definitely a giant bubble, not question about that. I'm looking at Mycelium wallet and just can't believe that "normal" transaction fee is 16.89 USD/byte?! Add in/out fees (for example ATM fees 6%+, LocalBitcoin premium approx. 7%, bank wire at exchanges approx. min $20) When I started using BTC it was free to send them, after that it was symbolic, now... it's not even competitive to classic payment systems.

[ApocalypseNow]

If I get a dollar for every person that will say bitcoin is a bubble then I'll be a millionaire by now. Bitcoin is not a bubble and I believe that its price now is cheaper compared on what it will be in the future.

[nullius]

Bitcoin is already too expensive and definitely a giant bubble, not question about that. I'm looking at Mycelium wallet and just can't believe that "normal" transaction fee is 16.89 USD/byte?! Add in/out fees (for example ATM fees 6%+, LocalBitcoin premium approx. 7%, bank wire at exchanges approx. min $20) When I started using BTC it was free to send them, after that it was symbolic, now... it's not even competitive to classic payment systems.

How are fees relevant to the question of whether or not Bitcoin’s valuation is in a bubble?  Do you know how Bitcoin works?  Also, Bitcoin fees are not denominated in USD/byte.

Leaving aside spam attacks for the moment, fees are a proxy for network demand—in turn, a reasonable proxy for estimating demand for Bitcoin.  Transactions used to be free or cheap, because Bitcoin itself was widely considered to be a worthless toy.  This meant that blocks were almost empty.  What you are really complaining about is that Bitcoin is now valuable—not some supposition that it be falsely valued.  Blocks being full and fees being bid up are data points indicating the opposite of a bubble.

Also, what is the relevance of fees from other services (ATMs, LBC, bank fees (!))?  How can you blame Bitcoin for your bank’s wire transfer fees?

If I get a dollar for every person that will say bitcoin is a bubble then I'll be a millionaire by now. Bitcoin is not a bubble and I believe that its price now is cheaper compared on what it will be in the future.

If I had a satoshi for every time I’ve heard it said that Bitcoin is in a bubble, then in the future, I would be richer than you with your dollars.  Zing.

[AmazonStuff]

Bitcoin is already too expensive and definitely a giant bubble, not question about that. I'm looking at Mycelium wallet and just can't believe that "normal" transaction fee is 16.89 USD/byte?! Add in/out fees (for example ATM fees 6%+, LocalBitcoin premium approx. 7%, bank wire at exchanges approx. min $20) When I started using BTC it was free to send them, after that it was symbolic, now... it's not even competitive to classic payment systems.


How are fees relevant to the question of whether or not Bitcoin’s valuation is in a bubble?  Do you know how Bitcoin works?  Also, Bitcoin fees are not denominated in USD/byte.

Leaving aside spam attacks for the moment, fees are a proxy for network demand—in turn, a reasonable proxy for estimating demand for Bitcoin.  Transactions used to be free or cheap, because Bitcoin itself was widely considered to be a worthless toy.  This meant that blocks were almost empty.  What you are really complaining about is that Bitcoin is now valuable—not some supposition that it be falsely valued.  Blocks being full and fees being bid up are data points indicating the opposite of a bubble.

Also, what is the relevance of fees from other services (ATMs, LBC, bank fees (!))?  How can you blame Bitcoin for your bank’s wire transfer fees?

Fees are more than relevant, they are a clear indicator of Bitcoin technical limitation, as you said blocks are full, cost to mine a block is too high, Bitcoin is unable to scale, I don't see LN as a solution. Fees are showing that BTC has become more expensive than other payment methods. If you want a mass adoption of BTC and you want BTC to become more valuable, you must be aware that masses receive they salary in national currency, unfortunately this won't change in the near future. Plus, masses want to transfer money as cheap as possible. Person A is interested to transfer money to transfer B in the fastest and cheapest way possible. How would you convince them to use BTC for this purpose? Would you send $50 through BTC network or you would use a bank transfer or other conventional payment system?

Just imagine person A receives salary in USD and he wants to send $50 to his friend person B. In order to use Bitcoin network, he needs to buy bitcoin, should he make a deposit to Bitfinex and pay min $20? No. Maybe use Localbitcoins and pay premium 7% + plus underlying payment system fees? No. Maybe, he should just use ATM and pay 6% fees? This sounds like a cheapest and most elegant way so far. He could maybe try to meet someone in person, but I don't think that average user has that much time or wants to risk being robbed my some guy.

OK, so far so good, only 6%, next step send BTC to person B, wallet shows that he must pay 16,89$ worth of BTC for this transaction. OK, this should not be this fast, let's try with the lowest possible priority which will confirm and not get stuck for the infinitive time, this is approx... 106 sat/byte approx $4.46.

Next step, person B needs to sell BTC in order to use this value in his national currency, because we still don't use BTC to pay in stores around us, let's use ATM again, another 6%, plus probably 16,89$, if you want to receive money while you are still around ATM.

Conclusion, if person A wants to send $50 to person B through BTC network, it would cost him $83.84 in total and $33.84 for fees (approx. 40%) or let's rephrase if you want to send $50 you must pay $33.84 which means 68% fees. Slow and expensive. I think that they would rather use cheaper conventional method.

For me, it's all about usability, mass adoption and scaling, if it's not usable, you will have less users, if you can't scale, you will have even less users, less users, lower fees, less users lower BTC price, current 379sat/byte "normal" miners fee would me much cheaper probably $3 and more competitive to other payment methods. If you compare $3 with current $15.79 for the 379sat/byte, expect BTC to crash 5x of it's current value, probably BTC price would stabilize at $4000...