At what price do you think Bitcoins will begin to rebound?

[peach]

and why?

[1715143549]

1715143549

[1715143549]

1715143549

[1715143549]

1715143549

[GeniuSxBoY]

$10.50... because that's what happened last time

[DrYe5]

$0.50

Because that's value of real economy divided by currency supply + $0.49/Btc (~3.5 Million $) speculation.

[Calibre]

It's going to be stuck at ~$10 for a long time, it will be the most stable it has ever been, then slowly drop lower as people realise that the cause is dead.

When the new currency arrives it will drop to $1.

I always chuckle when I read that Bitcoin will become worthless when a new currency arrives.

[NO_SLAVE]

10.50 will not hold this time.  It might bounce, but it wont hold. JMHO.

[dank]

It's going to be stuck at ~$10 for a long time, it will be the most stable it has ever been, then slowly drop lower as people realise that the cause is dead.

When the new currency arrives it will drop to $1.

I always chuckle when I read that Bitcoin will become worthless when a new currency arrives.

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Just because a new currency comes along doesn't mean it has value.

[aral]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Bitcoin is actually a pretty simple concept (although you don't appear to get it).  Its value is mostly not in the implementation of the idea but the community and the infrastructure surrounding it.  A new entrant can't just one day decide to unveil a shiny new decentralized currency.

[TraderTimm]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Still would have to overcome first-mover advantage. That doesn't always occur.

[evoorhees]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Bitcoin is actually a pretty simple concept (although you don't appear to get it).  Its value is mostly not in the implementation of the idea but the community and the infrastructure surrounding it.  A new entrant can't just one day decide to unveil a shiny new decentralized currency.

And what magical advantage would this new currency have that BTC does not? To my knowledge, there exists no problems with the BTC protocol itself. What flaw will this new currency fix? Bitcoin works beautifully, it just needs more services and convenience built up around it, but this is happening as we speak and a new currency would suffer the same burden.

[Calibre]

It's going to be stuck at ~$10 for a long time, it will be the most stable it has ever been, then slowly drop lower as people realise that the cause is dead.

When the new currency arrives it will drop to $1.

I always chuckle when I read that Bitcoin will become worthless when a new currency arrives.

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

So if a new currency or three comes out everyone jumps ship and abandons the current one for something that has no guarantee of return in the short or long-term?

[dacoinminster]

I have some buys at $10, so I guess that is where I think the low will be.

Here's a cartoon showing what is going on:



Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".

[muyoso]

And what magical advantage would this new currency have that BTC does not? To my knowledge, there exists no problems with the BTC protocol itself. What flaw will this new currency fix? Bitcoin works beautifully, it just needs more services and convenience built up around it, but this is happening as we speak and a new currency would suffer the same burden.

A competitor to bitcoins would almost instantly gain a huge following.  The instant I hear of one, I am jumping ship.  Why?  Because the difficulty will be extremely low and I will be able to mine tens if not hundreds of thousands of bytecoins or whatever they are called compared to 2 bitcoins a week.  The question is, why WOULDN'T people want to be early adopters of a new currency?  The people that jumped on bitcoin at the beginning have a vast majority of the bitcoins, who is going to pass up the opportunity to be one of those people?  Even if it turns out to be nothing, I have sacrificed what?  A few bitcoins?  Worth it.

[CurbsideProphet]

10.50 will not hold this time.  It might bounce, but it wont hold. JMHO.

I agree.  During the Gox downtime, I predicted $8 by August.  It will stick around $10 as the Bitcoin apologists desperately try to keep prices above single digits but this will be short lived.  Capitulation will hit when it falls into single digits.  

[GeniuSxBoY]

Dow has been doing overwhelmingly good... perhaps when the dow bubble crashes.

[SlipperySlope]

Given that in April one could buy a bitcoin for $1 or less, I think that we will see those sorts of prices again when the bitcoin bubble fully deflates.  Its been argued on another thread, analyzing comparative bubbles, that this one should be over by the end of August, 2011.

Note that I sold at $15.5 and have my cash at Mt Gox awaiting the bottom.

[Rassah]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Still waiting for an improved copy of the e-mail idea...

[TiagoTiago]

At least a week before i finally manage to finally get myself to buy some (the ones i already got weren't bought)

[datguywhowanders]

I'm hoping the rebound is now

[Jack of Diamonds]

Last barrier was at around 10.25 the last time people panicked. I think that was a month ago.

After that it rebounded pretty fast, then it got stuck at 16-17 for a long time.

[koin]

The question is, why WOULDN'T people want to be early adopters of a new currency?

oh, maybe: http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_power

[DamienBlack]

I think we've hit the bottom already at $11. This really saddens me because my dwolla money arrives tomorrow. I'm hoping it will hover here for a while. Long enough for be to buy at these great prices. But the fact that I feel these prices are great makes me think they will rise quickly, I can't be the only one.

[done]

BUY and hold (or use) if the price goes down BUY some more and hold (or use)

[CurbsideProphet]

I think we've hit the bottom already at $11. This really saddens me because my dwolla money arrives tomorrow. I'm hoping it will hover here for a while. Long enough for be to buy at these great prices. But the fact that I feel these prices are great makes me think they will rise quickly, I can't be the only one.

Last week people were saying the exact same thing, except the price was $15 that looked like such a great deal.  You have time, quite a bit of time I would guess.  Bitcoin is still in its infancy, you're not going to "miss the boat" by being one day late to the game.  

[peach]

Th price @ 13.7 atm. Possible rebound commencing.

[DamienBlack]

I think we've hit the bottom already at $11. This really saddens me because my dwolla money arrives tomorrow. I'm hoping it will hover here for a while. Long enough for be to buy at these great prices. But the fact that I feel these prices are great makes me think they will rise quickly, I can't be the only one.

Damn I hate being right. But I'm right so often.

[gnaget]

Thank God, even I was contemplating defenestration

[Rassah]

I don't know at what price, but my next paycheck comes in tomorrow, so it should start rebounding fast just before my next Dwolla transfer clears... like it has done for the last 5 times in a row

[markm]

This discussion is very biassed. Even if all fiat currencies are experiencing a rally in terms of bitcoins why be negative about it? So the fiats are rallying, so what? How about RAM and MHz and MHash, are they rallying or crashing, in terms of, uh, whatever... bubblegum? Each other? Bandwidth? Etc.

Oh there is lots a new currency could bring, can't believe your so blind that you can't see the gaping flaws in the bitcoin system...here let me list a few off the top of my head (there are many more):

• Decentralised exchange built into the actual program. The exchange fee could be reduced significantly and paid back directly to the miners.
• Easier interface for non-geeks. Average people struggle just to setup a paypal account, hell even making a skype account is hard for a lot...paypal requires all this bank confirmation and direct debits to prove your identity. there needs to be a simple type in credit/debit card details to buy instantly system, that can be built right into the system itself automatically adjusting to the exchange rate.
• Even buying/selling can be right inside the system too, much like comparing something like Napster/Kazaa/Limewire/iTunes to torrents, with those programs you could search for what you want in the program itself.
• Instead of mining difficulty going up, there could be an increasing decay that motivates you to spend the currency instead of hoard it for profit, and actually use the currency for its intention instead of being this stupid speculative machine that bitcoin has become.

Provided no-one breaks the "fact" that a BiTCoin address you have the private key for is "yours" in any clone/fork (other than ones that break this convenience, which some people seem to be plotting planning or at least laying the groundwork for), you can easily be automatically sent some other currency to whatever address you sent from. So an exchange can be simply a bot that, for example, watches for BiTCoin coming in at its "BTC to MBC" address and for each BTC address that sends BTC to that address in the BTC network it sends the corresponding/exchanged amount of Martian BotCoin on the Martian BotCoin network. And vice versa, and for all pairs of currencies using compatible addresses.

-MarkM-

[evoorhees]

Oh there is lots a new currency could bring, can't believe your so blind that you can't see the gaping flaws in the bitcoin system...here let me list a few off the top of my head (there are many more):

• Decentralised exchange built into the actual program. The exchange fee could be reduced significantly and paid back directly to the miners.
• Easier interface for non-geeks. Average people struggle just to setup a paypal account, hell even making a skype account is hard for a lot...paypal requires all this bank confirmation and direct debits to prove your identity. there needs to be a simple type in credit/debit card details to buy instantly system, that can be built right into the system itself automatically adjusting to the exchange rate.
• Even buying/selling can be right inside the system too, much like comparing something like Napster/Kazaa/Limewire/iTunes to torrents, with those programs you could search for what you want in the program itself.
• Instead of mining difficulty going up, there could be an increasing decay that motivates you to spend the currency instead of hoard it for profit, and actually use the currency for its intention instead of being this stupid speculative machine that bitcoin has become.

Tip: don't start your comments with an insult. I'll address your points:

1) A decentralized exchange is a great idea, but doesn't need to be built into the actual client. That would in fact complicate and weaken the core of bitcoin. Exchanges and other services are properly built around the core of Bitcoin, not as part of the core because their existence isn't necessary for Bitcoin operations at the most basic level. To use an exaggerated example, it would be silly to build in a fancy graphical charting software into the core client, even though such a thing would be useful. Keep the client small, clean, and pure. The rest can be built beyond it.

2) An easier interface would be great, and of course it's probably being planned as we speak. But the current interface is not a flaw with Bitcoin as a protocol per se, it's just an aesthetic issue (and the client is still in beta, remember).

3) Buying/selling functionality inside the client? Again, see point 1. This of course doesn't preclude an alternative client from being release which offers this benefit - but that's not a competitor to bitcoin as a protocol.

4) Regarding your "motivation to spend currency," that is a philosophical/economic difference that you and myself have. I believe it is economically foolish and misguided to "encourage" spending for spending's sake because it interferes with pricing signals. If a new bitcoin competitor came along that had a mechanism to encourage spending (like "decay!!!"), I'd stay the hell away from it but you're welcome to abandon Bitcoin for that if you wish.  You share your view with Obama, Keynes, Geithner, and Krugman. I share my view with Rothbard, Mises, and Hayak.

Only your last point is relevant to the Bitcoin protocol itself, and that's a philosophical difference. If you have other, better, reasons why a competitor would destroy Bitcoin, please present them.

[GeniuSxBoY]

So my guess was $10.50


The answer was $11.



I would have lost if this were The Price Is Right.

[RandyMarsh]

So my guess was $10.50


The answer was $11.



I would have lost if this were The Price Is Right.

A nice bump possibly, its still a bit early to call?

[Mousepotato]

A nice bump possibly, its still a bit early to call?

People were quick to call it a "crash" when it went from 17 to 15, so I don't think this is early at all.

[RandyMarsh]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnOcycgXpms

[bitcon]

So my guess was $10.50


The answer was $11.



I would have lost if this were The Price Is Right.

pretty effing close though.  good call!

[Jaime Frontero]

I don't know at what price, but my next paycheck comes in tomorrow, so it should start rebounding fast just before my next Dwolla transfer clears... like it has done for the last 5 times in a row

ummm... say, Rassah?

could you keep us all apprised of your pay-cycle?

sounds better than sunspots - if not as interesting as hemlines...

[Rassah]

I don't know at what price, but my next paycheck comes in tomorrow, so it should start rebounding fast just before my next Dwolla transfer clears... like it has done for the last 5 times in a row

ummm... say, Rassah?

could you keep us all apprised of your pay-cycle?

sounds better than sunspots - if not as interesting as hemlines...

I get paid on Wednesdays, every two weeks. Paycheck came in today, so not surprised it started going up again. Since it tends to go down a bit on weekends, I expect my Dwolla transfer won't complete until Monday. Last paycheck was during the MtGox crash. I didn't get to buy until Mtgox reopened and the price went up from $13.50 to $16.50. Before that my money got stuck in Dwolla during their issues, so I couldn't buy during the $30 to $10 crash, either, only being able to buy when it went back up to $18. It's been pretty consistent.

[MKW2012]

I don't know at what price, but my next paycheck comes in tomorrow, so it should start rebounding fast just before my next Dwolla transfer clears... like it has done for the last 5 times in a row

I know what you mean. I had never heard of Dwolla until I opened a Mt. Gox account. Its taken me about a week to get everything cleared though. But 1-3 days and I'm ready to starting trading.