At what price do you think Bitcoins will begin to rebound?

[peach]

and why?

[GeniuSxBoY]

$10.50... because that's what happened last time

[DrYe5]

$0.50

Because that's value of real economy divided by currency supply + $0.49/Btc (~3.5 Million $) speculation.

[Calibre]

It's going to be stuck at ~$10 for a long time, it will be the most stable it has ever been, then slowly drop lower as people realise that the cause is dead.

When the new currency arrives it will drop to $1.

I always chuckle when I read that Bitcoin will become worthless when a new currency arrives.

[NO_SLAVE]

10.50 will not hold this time.  It might bounce, but it wont hold. JMHO.

[dank]

It's going to be stuck at ~$10 for a long time, it will be the most stable it has ever been, then slowly drop lower as people realise that the cause is dead.

When the new currency arrives it will drop to $1.

I always chuckle when I read that Bitcoin will become worthless when a new currency arrives.

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Just because a new currency comes along doesn't mean it has value.

[aral]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Bitcoin is actually a pretty simple concept (although you don't appear to get it).  Its value is mostly not in the implementation of the idea but the community and the infrastructure surrounding it.  A new entrant can't just one day decide to unveil a shiny new decentralized currency.

[TraderTimm]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Still would have to overcome first-mover advantage. That doesn't always occur.

[evoorhees]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Bitcoin is actually a pretty simple concept (although you don't appear to get it).  Its value is mostly not in the implementation of the idea but the community and the infrastructure surrounding it.  A new entrant can't just one day decide to unveil a shiny new decentralized currency.

And what magical advantage would this new currency have that BTC does not? To my knowledge, there exists no problems with the BTC protocol itself. What flaw will this new currency fix? Bitcoin works beautifully, it just needs more services and convenience built up around it, but this is happening as we speak and a new currency would suffer the same burden.

[Calibre]

It's going to be stuck at ~$10 for a long time, it will be the most stable it has ever been, then slowly drop lower as people realise that the cause is dead.

When the new currency arrives it will drop to $1.

I always chuckle when I read that Bitcoin will become worthless when a new currency arrives.

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

So if a new currency or three comes out everyone jumps ship and abandons the current one for something that has no guarantee of return in the short or long-term?

[dacoinminster]

I have some buys at $10, so I guess that is where I think the low will be.

Here's a cartoon showing what is going on:



Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".

[muyoso]

And what magical advantage would this new currency have that BTC does not? To my knowledge, there exists no problems with the BTC protocol itself. What flaw will this new currency fix? Bitcoin works beautifully, it just needs more services and convenience built up around it, but this is happening as we speak and a new currency would suffer the same burden.

A competitor to bitcoins would almost instantly gain a huge following.  The instant I hear of one, I am jumping ship.  Why?  Because the difficulty will be extremely low and I will be able to mine tens if not hundreds of thousands of bytecoins or whatever they are called compared to 2 bitcoins a week.  The question is, why WOULDN'T people want to be early adopters of a new currency?  The people that jumped on bitcoin at the beginning have a vast majority of the bitcoins, who is going to pass up the opportunity to be one of those people?  Even if it turns out to be nothing, I have sacrificed what?  A few bitcoins?  Worth it.

[CurbsideProphet]

10.50 will not hold this time.  It might bounce, but it wont hold. JMHO.

I agree.  During the Gox downtime, I predicted $8 by August.  It will stick around $10 as the Bitcoin apologists desperately try to keep prices above single digits but this will be short lived.  Capitulation will hit when it falls into single digits.  

[GeniuSxBoY]

Dow has been doing overwhelmingly good... perhaps when the dow bubble crashes.

[SlipperySlope]

Given that in April one could buy a bitcoin for $1 or less, I think that we will see those sorts of prices again when the bitcoin bubble fully deflates.  Its been argued on another thread, analyzing comparative bubbles, that this one should be over by the end of August, 2011.

Note that I sold at $15.5 and have my cash at Mt Gox awaiting the bottom.

[Rassah]

Not sure if you have actually used the internet over the last 20 years, but usually when an idea comes along and it gets a decent following it isn't just copied, it's copied a LOT. It is inevitable that something Bitcoin inspired is going to come along.

Still waiting for an improved copy of the e-mail idea...

[TiagoTiago]

At least a week before i finally manage to finally get myself to buy some (the ones i already got weren't bought)

[datguywhowanders]

I'm hoping the rebound is now

[Jack of Diamonds]

Last barrier was at around 10.25 the last time people panicked. I think that was a month ago.

After that it rebounded pretty fast, then it got stuck at 16-17 for a long time.

[koin]

The question is, why WOULDN'T people want to be early adopters of a new currency?

oh, maybe: http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_power