As Predicted

[SgtSpike]

I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC.  I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous.  $330 is $330.

[BitcoinPorn]

I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC.  I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous.  $330 is $330.

So today is the day Bitcoin ends? 

lol, be patient, it is a bumpy ride

[the founder]

I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC.  I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous.  $330 is $330.

I'll buy them...   

[Shinobi]

They may not be going anywhere, but who cares if they last till the end of eternity if they are worth next to nothing? I think Bitcoins will be around as long as a few nodes are running, that I agree. But its a pointless exercise if it isn't worth much. Mine all you want. It won't be much different than looking for pretty pebbles on your lawn. Scarcity doesn't force value.

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.

Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...

This is a great point. MANY people will not sell their coins, EVER. Why should they sell at 5$ or 1$?

Bitcoin has come a long way, has seen more windsocks come and go than you or I can ever imagine.

Bitcoin don't give a shit.

Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.

Many miners aren't going anywhere either.

[Shinobi]

Thank you for at least some level of vindication. You articulated my sentiment better than I was able to.

I think a lot of the resistance to the idea comes from the libertarians among us for who Bitcoin was an ideological triumph. To them, the failure of Bitcoin is more than just a lost investment - its a powerful blow to their belief system.

I've studied/traded via Technical Analysis for a while and he's probably more right than wrong.

$14.10 was an important level for as it was the price bitcoin dropped to after MtGox re-opened and the "sky was falling".  Price tested that level last night and wasn't able to get past it (I think it was at 14.3 for a few minutes, but was quickly beaten back).

The next guesses will just be guesses, with every drop in price, miners and early speculators are going to get more and more uncomfortable, and more willing to sell.  I watch bitcoin price all day and I have yet to see buy volume anywhere near sell volume for the past 4 days of watching the DOMs closely.  Panic is winning at the moment and there's no sign of it stopping.  I think $10 will be a good measure, and I think there are probably around $3-$5 per btc worth of people who will never abandon the idea, although that's obviously highly subjective.

[evoorhees]

• Throughout the drop media articles will detail the drop of Bitcoin, while Bitcoin zealots like TraderTimm, Evorhees, and Atlas will continue to post about the "great opportunity to buy" as they watch their anti-establishment dream disappear along with their significant investments.

Wow I get to be included with those fine gentlemen? Shinobi, you honor me!

I care little if the market price falls down to almost nothing. I know what these things are worth. I would not be suprised if the price falls to $.10, then rises to $100 only to fall back again. Bitcoin is unprecedented, and it may take a while for people to understand what they really represent. I am not so shortsighted as to be concerned with weekly, or even monthly, price fluctuations. Anyone who is concerned SHOULD NOT be involved in this at this stage.

The daily price is fun to watch, maybe fun to trade sometimes, but is quite detached from those of us building things behind the scenes. And if I lose thousands of dollars? No biggie... I've spent much more on beer.

[foggyb]

They may not be going anywhere, but who cares if they last till the end of eternity if they are worth next to nothing?

That can make bitcoin every currency trader's playground, and foundations of new upstarts. No currency has ever lasted more than a couple hundred years.

How do you make bitcoin die?

[foggyb]

To them, the failure of Bitcoin is more than just a lost investment - its a powerful blow to their belief system.

A little premature, aren't we?

[Joise]

I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:

The fact is very few people are buying AND using Bitcoins beyond illicit drugs. If I want to buy a used video card there's no way I'm going to send money to MtGox, buy bitcoins, then go pay for my video card. Almost everyone who accepts Bitcoins also accepts standard forums of payment. If they don't they're living in god knows where (i.e. not usa) and I'm not buying from them anyway.

Um, thanks for the nice provocation to non-us merchants.

I'm not sure whether you might have looked at these google maps with the distribution of bitcoin clients worldwide. I mean that one, it was computed ba MagicalTux:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://c1958612.r12.cf0.rackcdn.com/bitcoin.kml

There are three main areas: The US, Western and Northern Europe and the Pacific rim: Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, China.

If you look closer, you see something quite interesting: The mayority  of bitcoin clients is close to the shores. In the US, east coast and west coast, not as much in between. In Europe, you see concentrations in Scandinavia and places like Hamburg. In the far east, you see a few at the coasts of the Pacific ocean.

My explanation is that: These are places which have very strong cultural links to trade, especially international trade. Harbor places are still today culturally very different from places like South Dakota.

I can be wrong but it seems to me that Bitcoin at the time has most interest in places where first, access to internet and knowledge about relavant technologies is high and second where maritime trade has a long tradition.

[kwukduck]

I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC.  I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous.  $330 is $330.

Today $330 is $330, tomorrow the same $330 is $329, in a year...

[FlipPro]

At this point the only reason I would want to sell, is so I can have cash to buy MORE BITCOINS if they ever were to drop to single digits lol.. That is MY personal goal, to BUY MORE BITCOIN, and sit on them for 10 years if I have to.

No matter how stupid people are, Bitcoins aren't...

[chickenado]

Thoughts?

Predictions that don't cost you anything are pretty much worthless. It's always easy in retrospect to brag about your predictions that materialized and stay quiet about the ones that didn't materialize.

I dare you to make a public bet of $1000 that bitcoin will drop below $3 by the end of August (I'm sure you'll find many takers here). 

Then I will take your prediction seriously.

[SgtSpike]

I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC.  I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous.  $330 is $330.

Today $330 is $330, tomorrow the same $330 is $329, in a year...

Today the $330 in credit card debt that I could pay off with the proceeds from the sale of these bitcoins is worth ($330).  Tomorrow, the same debt will be ($331).  In a year...

I have significant opportunity costs for any wealth kept in bitcoins, as I could be using it to pay down some high-interest debt.  That's my largest concern.

On the upside, bitcoins are back up to $13.80 from $11.09, or whatever the low point was.  Here's to hoping for a fresh rally.

[Elokane]

The price of bitcoins:

[ ] Have gone up significantly
[ X] Have gone down significantly
[ ] Have not fluctuated significantly

And I believe the price:

[X ] will continue this behavior
[ ] will not continue this behavior

And therefore one should:

[ ] BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!
[X ] SELL SELL SELL!!!
[ ] HOLD HOLD HOLD!!!
[ ] DO THE HOOOOKEY POKEY!!!

I base this opinion on:

[ ] mathemagic
[ ] statistics
[ ] correlations between price and a thing which may or may not be causally related to price
[ ] graphs
[X ] extrapolations
[X ] current events
[X ] historical events
[ ] the fact that a pattern like this has occurred before and therefore will occur again
[ ] insider knowledge that a large trade is about to take place
[X ] the fact that I have seen and predicted things correctly before
[ ] Oracle at Delphi
[X ] Magic 8 Ball

Apologies for the low content post, but: ROFL. Donation sent.

Edit: seems like your address is truncated in your sig.

[sunnankar]

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.

How is that working out for you Shinobi?

[Fjordbit]

[cunicula]

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.

How is that working out for you Shinobi?

It seems to working out pretty well for him if he sold at $17 and potentially bought at $3-$4 where he predicted price would stabilize.
Are you trying to imply the opposite?

Seems like a reading comprehension fail on your part.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

For a minute there, I thought I was 50% richer, then I saw the date. Note to self: Don't read while under the influence of 5 year old pills.

~Gilbert~

[Frequency]

Thoughts?

Predictions that don't cost you anything are pretty much worthless. It's always easy in retrospect to brag about your predictions that materialized and stay quiet about the ones that didn't materialize.

I dare you to make a public bet of $1000 that bitcoin will drop below $3 by the end of August (I'm sure you'll find many takers here).  

Then I will take your prediction seriously.

bump   uuurr you lost a 1k