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Author Topic: Market has peaked, sell off incoming.  (Read 13473 times)
Tzupy
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September 30, 2013, 06:20:38 AM
 #121

Shroomskit, you have been on my ignore list for quite a while, but I happened to browse the forum without logging in.
Just keep me on your ignore list, and remember that that not all people have to be clueless like you.  Wink

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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bitcoin44me
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September 30, 2013, 06:33:21 AM
 #122

I think we're due for a nice healthy drop to 110s-120s, but who knows, with this whale? I'm certainly not buying any more at these rates, anyway.  Smiley


Beginning of october soon.
Big moves incoming

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September 30, 2013, 08:34:52 AM
 #123

Shroomskit, you have been on my ignore list for quite a while, but I happened to browse the forum without logging in.
Just keep me on your ignore list, and remember that that not all people have to be clueless like you.  Wink

Just keep fooling yourself.

Its price is not a very relevant factor in its adoption....
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October 19, 2013, 01:46:31 AM
 #124



We're either completing wave 4 and my count was accurate or we have completed an ABC corrective and will resume the downtrend sometime between here and $147ish.



It may take some time to pick a direction though.

Wave 5 in progress.

Quote
Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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wobber
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October 19, 2013, 01:48:18 AM
 #125

You're a hater!

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theonewhowaskazu
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October 19, 2013, 01:49:06 AM
 #126

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

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October 19, 2013, 01:50:36 AM
 #127

You're a hater!

Quote
bears may very well be ridiculed

Don't worry, I have plenty of btc.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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notme
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October 19, 2013, 01:52:21 AM
 #128

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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windjc
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October 19, 2013, 02:21:15 AM
 #129

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/

I think this 5 wave model doesn't work in this case. There are some obvious wildly inconsistent things with BTC in general that are fairly obvious and common sense. But purely from a strict technical standpoint, there are many differences in BTC's behavior this year. For instance, look at "Wave 4" in your model. Wikipedia states:

"Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three."

While the first statement is true, the other two statements are false. Volume was not "well below" it was moderately below (if you average all the exchanges). And retracement was well beyond 38.2% by many miles.

Furthermore, Wikipedia states:

"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)."

Again, volume is not very much lower right now in this rally, with the exception of the 48 hours that BTC exploded up to 266.  As well, prices and other indicators are not really showing divergences. In fact, new markets (China) are on the rise.

Also, Wikipedia states:

"Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1." --> this was a gross understimate in BTC's case

and

"Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest)." ----->  if this is a 5 wave pattern, would BTC operate as a commodity would?

Again, it doesn't seem to fit to me.



If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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October 19, 2013, 02:23:41 AM
 #130

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_wave_rules_and_guidelines

Quote
A correct Elliott wave "count" must observe three rules:
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.

Everything else is guidelines, and some apply to bitcoin better than others.  For instance, bitcoin is tiny and illiquid.  It also has highly variable volume, again due to it's small size.  These things must be factored in.  Also, as stated in the "personality" for wave 3, in commodity markets wave 5 outperforms 3 in size and volume.  Bitcoin arguably behaves more like a commodity than a stock.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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windjc
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October 19, 2013, 02:29:31 AM
 #131

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_wave_rules_and_guidelines

Quote
A correct Elliott wave "count" must observe three rules:
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.

Everything else is guidelines, and some apply to bitcoin better than others.  For instance, bitcoin is tiny and illiquid.  It also has highly variable volume, again due to it's small size.  These things must be factored in.  Also, as stated in the "personality" for wave 3, in commodity markets wave 5 outperforms 3 in size and volume.  Bitcoin arguably behaves more like a commodity than a stock.

Wikipedia:

"Benoit Mandelbrot has questioned whether Elliott waves can predict financial markets:

    But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgement of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed.[17]

Robert Prechter had previously stated that ideas in an article by Mandelbrot[18] "originated with Ralph Nelson Elliott, who put them forth more comprehensively and more accurately with respect to real-world markets in his 1938 book The Wave Principle."[19]

Critics also warn the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:[20]

    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

The Elliot Wave Principle is also thought to be too dated to be applicable to today's market, as explained by market analyst Glenn Neely:[21]

"Elliot wave was an incredible discovery for its time. But, as technologies, governments, economies, and social systems have changed, the behavior of people has also. These changes have affected the wave patterns R.N. Elliot discovered. Consequently, strict application of orthodox Elliot wave concepts to current day markets skews forecasting accuracy. Markets have evolved, but Elliot has not."

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
notme
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October 19, 2013, 02:31:27 AM
 #132

Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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windjc
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October 19, 2013, 02:33:18 AM
 #133

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_wave_rules_and_guidelines

Quote
A correct Elliott wave "count" must observe three rules:
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.

Everything else is guidelines, and some apply to bitcoin better than others.  For instance, bitcoin is tiny and illiquid.  It also has highly variable volume, again due to it's small size.  These things must be factored in.  Also, as stated in the "personality" for wave 3, in commodity markets wave 5 outperforms 3 in size and volume.  Bitcoin arguably behaves more like a commodity than a stock.

I would additionally argue that if Bitcoin "wave 5" outperforms "wave 3", that "wave 5" is likely to turn out to NOT be a "wave 5" after all - instead it would area of resistance altogether.

I know it seems nice to use these simple wave formulas to speculate, but there is much to much going on and way too few bitcoin being traded for us to surmise where this things is headed intermediate term.


If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
notme
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October 19, 2013, 02:33:48 AM
 #134

That said, now that wave 5 is in progress, Elliot offers nothing other than "keep a tight stop" Tongue.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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windjc
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October 19, 2013, 02:34:11 AM
 #135

Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture

So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
notme
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October 19, 2013, 02:35:55 AM
 #136


I know it seems nice to use these simple wave formulas to speculate, but there is much to much going on and way too few bitcoin being traded for us to surmise where this things is headed intermediate term.


Well no shit, this is about sharing potential outcomes and their likelyhoods, not predicting the future.  That is impossible

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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notme
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October 19, 2013, 02:36:35 AM
 #137

Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture

So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/

Corrections can happen quick in this market.  Only having orders on the books at all times can win you extra btc in this market.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
windjc
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October 19, 2013, 02:39:33 AM
 #138

Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture

So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/

Corrections can happen quick in this market.  Only having orders on the books at all times can win you extra btc in this market.

So you sold in July (except for your bot) and now you would be happy at $116 but dont expect it to fall there.  Is that what I am supposed to suppose the answer to my question was with that riddle you just put in quotes?

Or maybe you bought in July believing that wave 4 was ending. Nice work, if thats the case.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
notme
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October 19, 2013, 02:47:45 AM
 #139


So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

...snip...

So you sold in July (except for your bot) and now you would be happy at $116 but dont expect it to fall there.  Is that what I am supposed to suppose the answer to my question was with that riddle you just put in quotes?

No.... where are you getting that I sold?  In July, I labelled the rally as wave 1 of the 5 wave structure.  That was a bullish call, so I wouldn't have sold.

As I bolded, "I haven't really investigated a target".  If you really want me to, I can pull up some charts, but I'm more of a big picture guy and just sometimes guess at short term wiggles for the fun of it.

In short, my answer is my bot buys back at many levels, but I don't do manual trades on anything smaller than the weekly charts.  The bot is a bit short, but at a price I can live with if we take off from here since it makes money from dampening big swings Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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wobber
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October 19, 2013, 02:50:30 AM
 #140

The most fun part of the roller coaster is when it gets down. Weak hands might slip away from the wagon.

Also, be cautious, climbing up with your eyes closed makes you not see when it goes downhill.

If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
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