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Author Topic: Market has peaked, sell off incoming.  (Read 13522 times)
notme
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July 30, 2013, 08:09:43 AM
 #61

effing fractal layers.

so, could your current counts for the I-II-III waves (in july) possibly be an ABC corrective trend of the bear 5-wave count changing trends into a new bull wave I? I  emphasize possibly, I do agree with your wave III count considering the market psychology


You lost me.  effing fractals indeed.

If you asking if there is a possible bearish count that could invalidate this count, I would answer that while it is possible, I have a hard time overlooking the strong 5 structure off the recent low around $65 that I have labelled Wave 1.  I suppose my "Wave 1" could be Wave A of an ABC correction, and we could be finishing C here.  But I don't see the overexuberance yet that I would expect at the finish of C.

There is also the guideline that waves 2 and 4 alternate between simple and complex.  In the big-picture count Wave 2 was certainly a complex correction, so Wave 4 should be relatively simple.

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July 30, 2013, 08:11:20 AM
 #62

effing fractal layers.

so, could your current counts for the I-II-III waves (in july) possibly be an ABC corrective trend of the bear 5-wave count changing trends into a new bull wave I? I  emphasize possibly, I do agree with your wave III count considering the market psychology


You lost me.  effing fractals indeed.

If you asking if there is a possible bearish count that could invalidate this count, I would answer that while it is possible, I have a hard time overlooking the strong 5 structure off the recent low around $65 that I have labelled Wave 1.  I suppose my "Wave 1" could be Wave A of an ABC correction, and we could be finishing C here.  But I don't see the overexuberance yet that I would expect at the finish of C.

There is also the guideline that waves 2 and 4 alternate between simple and complex.  In the big-picture count Wave 2 was certainly a complex correction, so Wave 4 should be relatively simple.

I meant something more like this:


i think my question is, when you have an upwards ABC corrective trend of say a main bear trend, could that ABC be inside a trend-changing wave 1? or is ABC not even used at all if you're counting a bull wave?

edit: i think I figured it out. ABC are used simply to denote the corrective bounces of a continuing trend, and you start a new count for the opposite trend, right?

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July 30, 2013, 08:21:16 AM
 #63

effing fractal layers.

so, could your current counts for the I-II-III waves (in july) possibly be an ABC corrective trend of the bear 5-wave count changing trends into a new bull wave I? I  emphasize possibly, I do agree with your wave III count considering the market psychology


You lost me.  effing fractals indeed.

If you asking if there is a possible bearish count that could invalidate this count, I would answer that while it is possible, I have a hard time overlooking the strong 5 structure off the recent low around $65 that I have labelled Wave 1.  I suppose my "Wave 1" could be Wave A of an ABC correction, and we could be finishing C here.  But I don't see the overexuberance yet that I would expect at the finish of C.

There is also the guideline that waves 2 and 4 alternate between simple and complex.  In the big-picture count Wave 2 was certainly a complex correction, so Wave 4 should be relatively simple.

I meant something more like this:


i think my question is, when you have an upwards ABC corrective trend of say a main bear trend, could that ABC be inside a trend-changing wave 1? or is ABC not even used at all

I don't think the ABC would apply unless the downtrend resumed, or if we had a complex correction.  Like I said above, Overall Wave 4 should be simple due to the complexity of Wave 2.  Looking at the action since $65, we have 1/A, 2/B, and are working on 3/C.  When this uptrend tops out we get to see if we will have a Wave 4 followed by a Wave 5, or resume the bear market.  Watch for a point of recognition in the middle of wave 3.  If volume doesn't pick up sharply, we might have a C and a we will be in a bull trap.  Or maybe the trap is already sprung and we will head down from here Tongue.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 30, 2013, 08:22:18 AM
 #64

i think I figured it out my confusion. So ABC is used simply to denote the corrective bounces off a wave 5 before a continuing trend, and you start a new count for the opposite trend, right?

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July 30, 2013, 09:09:14 AM
 #65



how come your subcounts don't have 4s and 5s?

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July 30, 2013, 11:57:22 AM
 #66

Today we will have low trading volume, it will be back and forth. Saturday a big sell off is coming, not sure where it will end up. The market will recover into a small up-trend Sunday and Monday but we might be looking at another long-climb back to where we are now. It could take weeks.

That's good.  Knowing that in advance you should make a killing.  Congrats.

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July 30, 2013, 01:45:05 PM
 #67

In the mean time I thought of a possible explanation of this strange looking dump.
The sellers were careful not to cross the bid sum with the ask sum, so they don't trigger a panic sale yet.
But they dumped more than required to make a nice profit at the 96 wall, so maybe they were testing the market.
This means we can expect other such dumps the coming days, but only the last one will trigger a panic sale.
Don't ask me which will be the last one, I simply don't know. For this possible explanation, do I get a cookie?  Grin

As long as there are enough people interested in buying up the coins being "dumped" it should not be a problem and will not affect the price that much.  Personally I think anyone dumping coins is crazy right now.  I think Bitcoin may plateau for a month or two but it is just a matter of time before we have another spike in price, and this time I believe it will be much more than the last spike.  As more and more people are interested in buying and using the demand will just naturally increase.


I have to agree with you. Bitcoins have been stable around $100 for a long time now. The next spike is going to be significant considering the current "normal" price. It hasn't fallen back down to $30 as some people feared probably because it has become too mainstream now.

I get this feeling that we are in for another bubble.
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July 30, 2013, 07:32:00 PM
 #68

Today we will have low trading volume, it will be back and forth. Saturday a big sell off is coming, not sure where it will end up. The market will recover into a small up-trend Sunday and Monday but we might be looking at another long-climb back to where we are now. It could take weeks.

That's good.  Knowing that in advance you should make a killing.  Congrats.

I bet he's really rich.

Its price is not a very relevant factor in its adoption....
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July 30, 2013, 07:35:22 PM
 #69

Also you'll see I pegged Sunday/Monday - I'm working on Tuesday and Wednesday right now. Thursday is not looking so good though, looks like another dip. Won't really know until later today when I can get my hands on more data. We could start seeing a dip as early as Wednesday.
Maybe I'm misreading, but how did you "peg" it? The market did not peak and rather than a sell off, the price of a bitcoin has gone up.

These people are delusional.
They just go on and on and simply ignore they are wrong 99% of the time.
There are a bunch of them in this part of the forum.

Its price is not a very relevant factor in its adoption....
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July 30, 2013, 08:00:20 PM
 #70

Also you'll see I pegged Sunday/Monday - I'm working on Tuesday and Wednesday right now. Thursday is not looking so good though, looks like another dip. Won't really know until later today when I can get my hands on more data. We could start seeing a dip as early as Wednesday.
Maybe I'm misreading, but how did you "peg" it? The market did not peak and rather than a sell off, the price of a bitcoin has gone up.

These people are delusional.
They just go on and on and simply ignore they are wrong 99% of the time.
There are a bunch of them in this part of the forum.
I've noticed you are especially bitter of late.

What's wrong?  Cry
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July 30, 2013, 09:42:01 PM
 #71

You gota love speculative claims, each of us have them, where else better to shoot them off than on a forum, where you get all sorts of fishies that bite and lots of big whales who glide through with their mouths full...  Grin
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July 30, 2013, 09:52:33 PM
 #72

You gota love speculative claims, each of us have them, where else better to shoot them off than on a forum, where you get all sorts of fishies that bite and lots of big whales who glide through with their mouths full...  Grin

there's always 4chan

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July 30, 2013, 11:17:14 PM
 #73

~ $92.50 then we run for $104

Well the bears disappoint slightly, but the correction bottomed at $93 and then wave 1 of 3 of 3 off the $65 bottom is probably finished at $99.9.  Now we have a small corrective wave followed by 3 of 3 of 3.  Students of Elliot Wave know what that means.  Wink

Bears underperform again.  Wave 1 extended to finish at $102.85.  Corrective wave 2 of 3 of 3 is nearing completion and then we well have our 3/3/3 off the $65 bottom.

3 of 3 of 3 has begun.... unless this is just a C wave in a giant bull trap Tongue.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 30, 2013, 11:47:15 PM
 #74

time for bears to go into hibernation! see you next year

ok
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July 31, 2013, 11:08:48 AM
 #75

For once the title of this thread may be relevant, although I am referring to the very short term. After we cool off a bit, we should see a test of $115.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 31, 2013, 04:24:44 PM
 #76

Finally, the bears got their selloff.  Possibly one more leg down.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 31, 2013, 04:26:19 PM
 #77

Finally, the bears got their selloff.  Possibly one more leg down.

time frame?

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July 31, 2013, 04:28:26 PM
 #78

Finally, the bears got their selloff.  Possibly one more leg down.

time frame?

We should have the final 5th wave down of wave C of the correction within a couple hours... maybe sooner.  $100 should hold or the bull case gets tougher.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 31, 2013, 04:36:14 PM
 #79

so there are 5 waves in wave c? too cool

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August 01, 2013, 05:42:58 AM
 #80

If the bears can hold it here a bit longer we should have a decent move down fueled by the 2 hour goomboos to complete C of the correction.  Or we could just head up from here Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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