[LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)

[BitThink]

Well at least there is no more middle ground, they either provide proof of hashing or it's a 'black friday' rush to exit.

TheSwede isn't stupid, he knows the consequences if Sam does not deliver something substantial. Keep your eye out for large sell orders before the announcement. LOL

LOL... there is no fucking "Sam"

It does not make sense to give out the real name of the CEO, but make up a fake director.

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[velacreations]

Even AM faced the deploy problem and the hashing was delayed weeks. The point is not always no delay, but to be honest and transparent. If they admit they have some problems and hashing is not stable, or the chip is under performed. The price will dip in short term, but the project will be still live. As long as the 65nm chips succeed, we can still wish a happy end.

On the contrary, if they still provide empty words and promise for future without any frankness. It may at best postpone the end of this project for a couple of days.

yeah, but you know the difference?  AM let people know what was going on.  Even at the beginning, you could see AM's hash rate.

The last real news we heard here was "we are hashing and we're planning to expand". Nothing to back that up (AM was pool mining, so had 3rd party verification)


EDIT: and AM had a lot more room for error.  LC can't delay weeks with 2 TH/s.

[tucenaber]

We're mentioned in the press.

http://singularityhub.com/2013/09/11/bitcoins-big-year-attracts-regulators-in-the-us-sparks-ipos-in-china/

[velacreations]

It feels like someone is trying to push the price down to buy back in.

Typical sellers remorse!

if I wanted lower share prices, I'd wait until the update tomorrow. 

[freedomno1]

We're mentioned in the press.

http://singularityhub.com/2013/09/11/bitcoins-big-year-attracts-regulators-in-the-us-sparks-ipos-in-china/

Mumbles Banned in Thailand geez
http://qz.com/110164/thailands-infamous-bitcoin-crackdown-is-not-quite-what-it-seems/
In short: Thailand hasn’t yet worked out how to handle Bitcoin. And at least for the time being, many of Bitcoin Co Ltd’s rivals are still operational. In a telephone interview with Quartz, one Bangkok-based Bitcoin trader said that the central bank has made no attempt to contact him or his peers. “All these yellow newspapers are just printing rumors,” he said, “Bitcoin is legal in Thailand like in any other country.”

[BitThink]

We're mentioned in the press.

http://singularityhub.com/2013/09/11/bitcoins-big-year-attracts-regulators-in-the-us-sparks-ipos-in-china/

This is a pretty old news, almost a month ago, if i am not wrong. Don't know why it is copied with a new date. It was published before MyMiner canceled their IPO.

[wickedgoodtrader]

If they are hashing, I suspect that will be enough for many.

they aren't hashing.  Look at the blockchain.  Where's the blocks?  They don't exist.  You know why?  Labcoin is not hashing.

let me repeat that just so everyone is clear on what is going on:

LABCOIN IS NOT HASHING

Well, there's this transaction  The coinbase is unsigned, and the coins where sent to 1NBDEAYH49tZvFMJ95oa4kYrqgecgnc16C, which had never received coins before. It was found a little over 7 hours ago.

If they are hashing at 2Th/s, there's a about a 78% chance they'll have found a block after 72 hours. Another 22h brings that likelyhood up to about 87% (going by slush's pool's CDF graph)

Anyway, all they need to show are 1: pictures of boards, and 2: an address that they are sending rewards too.

As I was saying earlier, if this was actually a scam they would come up with a hashrate on a pool and some pictures long ago. They'd just need to buy a bunch of bitfury chips and slowly bring them online to and eligus account

Photos of boards would be equally easy to do, just have some actual PCBs made with fake chips.  You can get PCBs made within 24 hours.

So if it's a scam, why aren't they doing those things?

If they're not a scam, they may be having technical difficulties. If they are should explain the problem and what they're doing to fix it. Stock price may decline but I doubt it will completely crater.

Jesus fucking christ, yet another fucking IF THIS WERE A SCAM THEY WOULD SCAM BETTER post. You realize crooks aren't always that smart? That they don't know how to think things through like an intelligent person who chooses not to scam. Forget all your BS about "if they were scamming" and think about the IF THEY WERE LEGIT!

All you suckers best case scenario is maybe they are having troubles and they lied about hashing (which is BEST case and most likely not even that good in your favor). Well lies are like cockroaches, where's there's 1 there's a bunch. You can't invest in a company that lies to you.... well I guess I can't, maybe you can.

[salviel]

Well at least there is no more middle ground, they either provide proof of hashing or it's a 'black friday' rush to exit.

TheSwede isn't stupid, he knows the consequences if Sam does not deliver something substantial. Keep your eye out for large sell orders before the announcement. LOL

LOL... there is no fucking "Sam"

... are... are you joking, or are you just an idiot?

[eve]

UPDATE NOTICE:

I just spoke to Sam and confirmed that there will be an update tomorrow Friday Sept 13th at approx 8 PM Central Time (Approx 23 hours from this post). I have no details on the information but the update will be released both here on the forum and on btct.co

TLDR; There will be an update tomorrow at 8 pm Central.

Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-14+01:00:00UTC

Get Ready only 18 hours to go ...or another Bs or excuse.

[Ytterbium]

Jesus fucking christ, yet another fucking IF THIS WERE A SCAM THEY WOULD SCAM BETTER post. You realize crooks aren't always that smart?

Yeah, crooks aren't always smart.  Just look at cedartech or xCrowd.  But these guys are smart.

Forget all your BS about "if they were scamming" and think about the IF THEY WERE LEGIT!

I'm not saying that you should invest because I don't think it's a scam. I'm simply stating why I don't think it's a scam and why I think it's likely they'll have something tomorrow.  I could be wrong, of course, and if so It's going to cost me money.  On the other hand if I'm right I'll make money - but I think people will probably keep saying it's a scam anyway.

The way you make money speculating on a stock market is to predict the probability of various outcomes. The way you make predictions about the future is to estimate the probability of certain things being true now. You're basically saying I should just "forget" about trying to make predictions? That's completely ridiculous.  First of all, you can't just turn your brain off and stop thinking, and second of all, if I did how would I make any money?

Anyway, there are four basic probabilities

1) It's a scam and they won't have proof
2) It's a scam and they'll have fake proof
3) It's legit but they won't have proof due to technical difficulties.
4) It's legit and they will have proof.

#1 seems pretty implausible to me, and while #3 is a possibility it shouldn't be that big of a deal if they're straightforward about it.  The "it's a scam" people will obviously have a field day but at this point they obviously don't own any of the stock anymore.

#2 is an interesting possibility, it would imply that I'll make money even if they are (smart) scammers. But the problem is they've already had so many problems it's pretty unlikely that they're smart scammers, otherwise they would have faked proof a long time ago.

So the only plausable outcomes seem like #3 and #4, so I expect the stock to either drop a little (but stay above my average buy price) or spike up to at least 0.0038 or so. Maybe more.

TL;DR: They're not dumb scammers because they're dumb.  They're not smart scammers because if they were their scam would be going more smoothly. So either they're hashing, or the're having problems, and I don't really think the downside will be that bad if they have a reasonable explanation and plan for fixing those problems.

All you suckers best case scenario is maybe they are having troubles and they lied about hashing (which is BEST case and most likely not even that good in your favor). Well lies are like cockroaches, where's there's 1 there's a bunch. You can't invest in a company that lies to you.... well I guess I can't, maybe you can.

You said earlier there's no proof on the blockchain, but that's not correct.  There's at least one unsigned block (257612 that's gone to a totally new address 1NBDEAYH49tZvFMJ95oa4kYrqgecgnc16C.  So it is not the case that the blockchain is inconsistent with Labcoin's clams to be solo mining.   And, even that's not their block and they don't find one before their announcement, there would still be a 13% chance that they actually were hashing at 2Th/s.

Again, I'm not saying people should buy the stock if they don't feel comfortable, I'm just explaining why I'm not particularly worried at this point.

[BitThink]

Anotheranony. In your reference, it was reported some company exposed nominee director's identity to keep the real owne anonymous. But in Labcoin's case, it is in the other way. The CEO's identity is public. The nominee director's identity is also public, just not verified. According to what TheSwede75 said "Sam posted update himself", then at least we know sometimes the account 'labcoin' represents Sam. There's also Wang Zhenghua (Howard Wang) in Shenzhen side. Identity wise, I mean only identity wise, it's more public than AM.

Actually I really don't want to defend for them at all. I dislike what they did as well. Just don't want to exaggerate the risk.

[somestranger]

Labcoin traders had better stock up on some options in case the price shoots up tomorrow (or crashes). I see a few reasonable ones in the sea of overpriced.

[Mabsark]

where's Mabsark?

I'm still here, watching, waiting and laughing my arse off at you gullible fools who keep selling based on FUD, while the actual FUD spreaders are snapping up cheap shares.

[abuelau]

where's Mabsark?

I'm still here, watching, waiting and laughing my arse off at you gullible fools who keep selling based on FUD, while the actual FUD spreaders are snapping up cheap shares.

+1.

I hate these fudsters, but I have actually doubled my share count in the last week because prices were so cheap!

[Ytterbium]

They can be pretty annoying, but I think people who don't know enough to evaluate the risks should be scared off. A company should be able to prove it's claims empirically when people bring up reasonable questions or doubts. 

The non-reasonable stuff (like the crazy pixel detective stuff) isn't going to shake investors who have some understanding of what's going on and how the technology works. Those people you can put on ignore. A thread full of cheerleaders is a bad idea.

Plus, as long as you're still buying shares and not selling them, you actually benefit from the lower share price.

[001sonkit]

Amazing sCamompany

[abuelau]

Well I work in a big technology company and I know very well how these projects work. They are very complex, you need to coordinate a number of things, stakeholders, costs, milestones, risks, etc. and you simply can't be so precise to say "Sunday at 1pm we will have it working". This is always an estimate, and a number of unpredictable things can happen that force you to delay.

This is especially true when you are getting a new hardware to work for the first time. So I am not too worried here, they will get their act together. It's just that they know that it's more important to get the chips working and hashing than focus on answering forum questions.

Once the chips are hashing and stable, their new website is in place, more chips start arriving (and now they have more experience in making them work the first time), things will settle. These first days are always hectic.

[Ytterbium]

Well I work in a big technology company and I know very well how these projects work. They are very complex, you need to coordinate a number of things, stakeholders, costs, milestones, risks, etc. and you simply can't be so precise to say "Sunday at 1pm we will have it working". This is always an estimate, and a number of unpredictable things can happen that force you to delay.

This is especially true when you are getting a new hardware to work for the first time. So I am not too worried here, they will get their act together. It's just that they know that it's more important to get the chips working and hashing than focus on answering forum questions.

Once the chips are hashing and stable, their new website is in place, more chips start arriving (and now they have more experience in making them work the first time), things will settle. These first days are always hectic.

Yeah, I feel like the FUDsters have no idea what it's actually like to develop and ship software let alone custom hardware, let alone custom hardware plus the software they need to make that hardware actually work.

Other then the "it's a scam" stuff there are a number of possibilities

Worst case is there is something wrong with the chips that needs to be fixed in the next rev, in which case the delay is a month(?) or so

Next is some IC flaw that can be worked around somehow on the circuitboard or in software.

Then maybe a problem with the circuitboard, and they need to modify it or get new ones

Among the least bad would be some kind of software issue that they need to debug or finish.

My guess guess for the most likely probability is that they were so focused on the chips/circuitboards/deployment that they stopped software development once they got basic solo-mining working on their FPGAs, and can't connect to pools and need to modify the software to do block signing.

These people aren't stupid, and if they were scammers they would have just faked some evidence/started mining with hardware purchased with IPO funds.

[BitThink]

I agree most of your opinions. But the things really annoy me are: 1 they said they've already mining 3 days ago without mention any difficulty. 2. Nothing prevent them from posting a photo of installment they promised long ago. These are the main reason caused the price fluctuation, not the FUDs all over this thread.

[abuelau]

I agree most of your opinions. But the things really annoy me are: 1 they said they've already mining 3 days ago without mention any difficulty. 2. Nothing prevent them from posting a photo of installment they promised long ago. These are the main reason caused the price fluctuation, not the FUDs all over this thread.

Yeah, well I take your point it's annoying. But what I think is really happening is this: they were eager to start hashing. So they assembled a test PCB and started hashing with around 2TH/s and realized that there's still work to do to stabilize it. Perhaps their software doesn't allow joining a pool, perhaps there are some issues with the PCB, perhaps a few chips overheated... who knows.

What I know is that things very rarely work the first time, and what we can hope is that any issues are minor ones that can easily be fixed.

This is why they didn't want to post pictures before they stabilize the situation. And honestly, if they manage to do it in just a few days, it's really not bad, they must be working their assess off, not even sleeping in some nights. I've been there in other projects, I know how it feels like getting close to the deadline and some odd thing not working the way it's supposed to.

They said they will update tonight. Let's wait and see what they are going to say. But delays like these are pretty normal in big projects, even for the biggest companies that have years of experience.