Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins!

[Predictious]

Only a few hours left for the Duke vs Badgers, make sure you place your prediction on Predictious!

• Duke Blue Devils to win Lay: x1.89 ; Back: x1.91
• Wisconsin Badgers to win: Lay: x1.91 ; Back: x1.89

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[TOMOAKI12345]

Accepting user-suggested prediction ? I would like to add prediction about Japan, such as Japan will be default of the national by 2050? I would like to see how the Japan is seen from bitcoiners in the world.

[Predictious]

Accepting user-suggested prediction ? I would like to add prediction about Japan, such as Japan will be default of the national by 2050? I would like to see how the Japan is seen from bitcoiners in the world.

Yes we do accept suggestions as long as they meet our guidelines. Can you clarify what you mean by "Japan will be default of the national by 2050"? Also it sounds like a very very long term prediction, so not sure if this would fit Predictious.

[Predictious]

The Rick Santorum's contract is getting very hot on Predictious!

[Predictious]

Can Manny Pacquiao Beat Floyd Mayweather Jr.? Have your say on Predictious!

[sangaman]

I wanted to share some feedback for potential improvements to the site. I've e-mailed about these before but I'm not sure I got a firm response.

1) The volume stats on the site are consistently way off. Often times the all time volume will read X whereas my own trading activity may greatly exceed X for that contract. It would be nice to have accurate and more detailed volume statistics. Something like a historical volume chart (the way we have historical price) would be very helpful and informative. It would also be nice to know at any time the total number of outstanding shares for a given contract.

2) I believe Predictious is still calculating margin requirements on a per-ccontract basis for the most part. For example if I'm short 10 shares of Joe Shmoe to win the 2016 US Presidential Election, there shouldn't be any additional margin requirements for me to offer to go short 10 shares of a different candidate (lets say Jane Doe). Only one candidate can win the 2016 election, so only one of my short positions can result in a loss. Currently, it seems that margin requirements go up in this case. Optimizing the margin requirements calculations to that it results in the lowest margin requirements possible would be a big improvement,, and would allow users to make more predictions with less money. That's a win-win. I realize this introduces some complexity to the trading engine but I think it would be a greatly valuable feature.

I've enjoyed Predictious and I hope these suggestions are taken into account and that the site continues to grow and improve.

[mjangler]

I wanted to share some feedback for potential improvements to the site. I've e-mailed about these before but I'm not sure I got a firm response.

1) The volume stats on the site are consistently way off. Often times the all time volume will read X whereas my own trading activity may greatly exceed X for that contract. It would be nice to have accurate and more detailed volume statistics. Something like a historical volume chart (the way we have historical price) would be very helpful and informative. It would also be nice to know at any time the total number of outstanding shares for a given contract.

2) I believe Predictious is still calculating margin requirements on a per-ccontract basis for the most part. For example if I'm short 10 shares of Joe Shmoe to win the 2016 US Presidential Election, there shouldn't be any additional margin requirements for me to offer to go short 10 shares of a different candidate (lets say Jane Doe). Only one candidate can win the 2016 election, so only one of my short positions can result in a loss. Currently, it seems that margin requirements go up in this case. Optimizing the margin requirements calculations to that it results in the lowest margin requirements possible would be a big improvement,, and would allow users to make more predictions with less money. That's a win-win. I realize this introduces some complexity to the trading engine but I think it would be a greatly valuable feature.

I've enjoyed Predictious and I hope these suggestions are taken into account and that the site continues to grow and improve.

I agree that point #2 is a very important issue.  If you could resolve this I think volume on your site would double or more.  I personally would increase my volume quite a bit.

[sangaman]

I wanted to share some feedback for potential improvements to the site. I've e-mailed about these before but I'm not sure I got a firm response.

1) The volume stats on the site are consistently way off. Often times the all time volume will read X whereas my own trading activity may greatly exceed X for that contract. It would be nice to have accurate and more detailed volume statistics. Something like a historical volume chart (the way we have historical price) would be very helpful and informative. It would also be nice to know at any time the total number of outstanding shares for a given contract.

2) I believe Predictious is still calculating margin requirements on a per-ccontract basis for the most part. For example if I'm short 10 shares of Joe Shmoe to win the 2016 US Presidential Election, there shouldn't be any additional margin requirements for me to offer to go short 10 shares of a different candidate (lets say Jane Doe). Only one candidate can win the 2016 election, so only one of my short positions can result in a loss. Currently, it seems that margin requirements go up in this case. Optimizing the margin requirements calculations to that it results in the lowest margin requirements possible would be a big improvement,, and would allow users to make more predictions with less money. That's a win-win. I realize this introduces some complexity to the trading engine but I think it would be a greatly valuable feature.

I've enjoyed Predictious and I hope these suggestions are taken into account and that the site continues to grow and improve.

I agree that point #2 is a very important issue.  If you could resolve this I think volume on your site would double or more.  I personally would increase my volume quite a bit.

Yes I'd increase my volume and order sizes as well, particularly on markets where there will be exactly 1 winner out of a number of possibilities. That describes most of the most active contracts I think - Oscars, election winners, sport championship winners, etc... When trading relative longshots, lets say i'm selling a contract at 0.5 mɃ, it sucks to have to tie up 9.5 mɃ for potentially months at a time for a relatively small payout. This is even more extreme when it's 9.8 or 9.9 to win 0.2 or 0.1. I realize that margin requirements need to be enforced, but they should be minimized where possible.

[Predictious]

Popular contracts this week:

• Golden State Warriors to win the 2015 NBA Finals
• Barcelona to win the 2015 UEFA Champions League Final
• Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States
• Rand Paul to be the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States
• Price of Bitcoin May 31st to be more than $300

[Lord Varys]

There appear to be SEVERE problems now at Predictious. Has the site gone defunct? Is anyone able to successfully withdraw funds? A deposit made has not appeared in my account for over 16 hours, with over 60 confirmations. I am afraid that I foolishly lost my small investment and Predictious has pulled a pathetic little Mt. Gox on anyone that still has BTC tied up in the site.

Please indicate if anyone is able to get their money back.

[Predictious]

There appear to be SEVERE problems now at Predictious. Has the site gone defunct? Is anyone able to successfully withdraw funds? A deposit made has not appeared in my account for over 16 hours, with over 60 confirmations. I am afraid that I foolishly lost my small investment and Predictious has pulled a pathetic little Mt. Gox on anyone that still has BTC tied up in the site.

Please indicate if anyone is able to get their money back.

Hi Lord Varys,

as discussed over email your transaction has been delayed due to our API provider which is currently experiencing delays due to the high load on the Bitcoin network: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3cdhtx/holy_smokes_50000_unconfirmed_transactions_and/

We're still fully operational and have never had any negative report from any of our users. Even though we're a small team, we provide fast support, and do our best to keep our users happy.

As you can see from www.predictious.com, we're still adding events on a daily basis and have lots of users trading on the platform.

Please just be patient and rest assure that your deposit will be credited to your account.

[Lord Varys]

Predictious, please explain what your Reddit link has to do with the issue? It is discussing lags in confirmations through the blockchain. My transaction has been confirmed over 100 times! It is not a Bitcoin issue, it is a bizarre Predictius issue that is unresolved. You have the Bitcoins, but my account remains uncredited. How does this qualify as "operational?" How long does it normally take after confirmation for Predictius to credit a deposit? How much longer will it take to withdraw?

I understand that there are many previously-satisfied Predictius users; just curious if any have successfully withdrawn funds recently. If I saw evidence anywhere on the Internet of a single one, I would shut up and "rest assured" that everything is OK.

I am experimenting with many different Bitcoin sites this week and have had no trouble creating accounts, depositing, or withdrawing from any of them except for Predictius.

[ticoti]

I really like your site ;P

But I don't understand what means: BUY at 0.34
it means I lose money betting to that option?

[Predictious]

Predictious, please explain what your Reddit link has to do with the issue? It is discussing lags in confirmations through the blockchain.

Operational issues happen to every company, that doesn't make them automatically "defunct".

We have been operating for 2 years, and have never lost a cent of user's funds. From time to time, the API we use to process payments (Blockchain.info) experiences lags, and in that case, deposits can take up to 48 hours to be processed. You can verify this is the case here or here, most likely caused by the current stress on the network.

If your deposit hasn't been credited in 48 hours, we'll refund you in full.

[Predictious]

I really like your site ;P

But I don't understand what means: BUY at 0.34
it means I lose money betting to that option?

Thanks

It means if you think this outcome will happen, you can buy a share at 0.34 mBTC, and you will make 10 mBTC from that share if you are right (basically multiply your stake by 30).

[ticoti]

I really like your site ;P

But I don't understand what means: BUY at 0.34
it means I lose money betting to that option?

Thanks

It means if you think this outcome will happen, you can buy a share at 0.34 mBTC, and you will make 10 mBTC from that share if you are right (basically multiply your stake by 30).

I understand now  

And I read you can short or long,is that right? how can you if you are buying a share?

[jeffthebaker]

Is there any way that Big Brother or Battle Bots related bets couldn't be added to the site? I would certainly make bets on either of those two shows.

[sangaman]

Hi Predictious. Over at Predictit.org, a USD based prediction market, they seem to be generating quite a bit of interest in propositions on the polling average for various key polls by certain dates. For example, Hillary Clinton to be polling over 60% (according to the average on realclearpolitics.com) by July 31st. Is this something you guys would consider as well?

[Predictious]

Hi Predictious. Over at Predictit.org, a USD based prediction market, they seem to be generating quite a bit of interest in propositions on the polling average for various key polls by certain dates. For example, Hillary Clinton to be polling over 60% (according to the average on realclearpolitics.com) by July 31st. Is this something you guys would consider as well?

Thanks for the great suggestion! We've now added the following contracts on primary polling numbers for the top Democratic and Republican candidates:

• Donald Trump primary polling to be 18% or more on August 31st 2015
• Bernie Sanders primary polling to be 17% or more on August 31st 2015
• Joe Biden primary polling to be 11% or more on August 31st 2015
• Scott Walker primary polling to be 12% or more on August 31st 2015
• Hillary Clinton primary polling to be 60% or more on August 31st 2015
• Jeb Bush primary polling to be 14% or more on August 31st 2015

[Predictious]

New contracts on Predictious:

Politics:

• Woman to be featured on $10 bill
• Primary polling percentage for top candidates on August 31st 2015
• Obama Gallup job approval
• Obamacare approval polling on August 31st 2015

Sport:

• 2016 Super Bowl 50 winner
• MLB World Series 2015
• Rugby World Cup 2015
• Davis Cup 2015
• US PGA 2015