Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins!

[IveBeenBit]

Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.

[Predictious]

Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.

Thanks for the suggestion, we will look into it.

[Predictious]

New Markets on Predictious:

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[qxzn]

Trading: The trading fee structure is as follow for all contracts with a starting date post January 25th 2014:
For shares bought or sold between m฿0 and m฿0.25: ฿0.00001 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿0.25 and m฿1: ฿0.00005 per share
For shares bought or sold between m฿1 and m฿9: ฿0.0001 per share
For shares  bought or sold between m฿9 and m฿9.75: ฿0.00005 per share
For shares  bought or sold between m฿9.75 and m฿10: ฿0.00001 per share

You list the nominal amount in millibits, but the fee in bitcoins. Why would you do that? Not only does it make it harder to see what's going on, but it sure does make the fee look small...

Sorry for the confusion, we've now updated everything to millibitcoins: https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/articles/1222008

Thanks for the quick fix. There's one more thing you could do to clarify, which is, if a trade happens at e.g. *exactly* 0.25mB, what is the fee? In other words, what is the fee on the boundaries?

[eldentyrell]

Wow, this is great, I've wanted a site like this for soooo long.  Can't believe I didn't find out about it until now.

1) We are considering a slight change in the fee structure to make it more interesting for extremely low or high probabilities (along the lines of what you are suggesting).

Please bump this up your priority list.  The strange fee structure risks distorting the markets.  Why not something simple like X% of each transaction and Y% of each redemption?  You'll probably be able to charge higher fees by skewing towards lower X and higher Y; from the customer's perspective fees on winning shares are easy to account for, simply treat it as a reduced reward.  Really the per-transaction fees should be just barely high enough to prevent silly HFT-churn-trading; setting them too high discourages arbitrage.

Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.

I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market.  It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company.  Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores.  I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one.  It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).

Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency.  Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories.  You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.

[Predictious]

Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.

I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market.  It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company.  Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores.  I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one.  It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).

Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency.  Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories.  You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

• Mt.Gox Insolvency

[Predictious]

New Market on Predictious:

• NBA MVP Award 2014

[IvanIlyich]

1) As everybody knows, mtgox is having serious liquidity problems. This post could very easily become obsolete in the next few hours, but...

It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.
Basically, if you look at mtgox prices on the exchange, and you compare them with what people are offering for goxed coins on the "mtgox <-> btc bid/ask" thread here, there has been a huge overlap. It would seem that lots of people should be willing to do trades, but either ignorance or high transaction costs (e.g. fear of getting scammed or being unsure about escrow) is preventing them.

Now, market manipulation might be a problem, conceivably, except that your order books are so thin that that kind of seems like the tail wagging the dog.

Bets for mtgox insolvency is helpful, but I think bets on hitting certain price points would generate a lot of interest. You could publicize it widely: tell a reporter at Wired and I bet they would put up a story right away. I think people would trade, and a lot of people would be happy.

thanks

Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.

I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market.  It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company.  Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores.  I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one.  It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).

Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency.  Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories.  You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

• Mt.Gox Insolvency

[eldentyrell]

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

• Mt.Gox Insolvency

Thanks for the quick response!

I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site.  I do not have a google account and can't get one.

[eldentyrell]

It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.

I can understand why predictious might not want to create zillions of contracts with every possible combination of date/time/price… it clutters up the list of contracts and it looks bad for them to have markets with empty order books.

One thing they might consider is offering "meta markets" consisting of a contract term with variables ("mtgox price to fall below $X before date Y") and display only those variable combinations for which there are orders on the order book.  As long as the API presents this in a sensible way people will step up with market-maker bots across the variable combinations, for a spread… sorta like how the banks keep the order books for the options market full by using Black-Scholes and subtracting out their fee (which manifests itself as the nontrivial bid/ask spread you always see on options markets).  That way when an infrequent end user shows up and wants a specific kind of hedge there's always some depth there waiting for them.

[IveBeenBit]

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

• Mt.Gox Insolvency

Thanks for the quick response!

I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site.  I do not have a google account and can't get one.

I, too tried to log in yesterday to make my first trades, but stopped when it looked like I was forced to go through Google.

[Predictious]

It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.

Thanks for the suggestion! We've now added the following market:

• Price of Bitcoin Mt.Gox Feb 28th
• Price of Bitcoin Mt.Gox Feb 25th

We'll add more if this gets popular.

I'd like to bring some liquidity to your order book, but I can't figure out how to log into your site.  I do not have a google account and can't get one.

I, too tried to log in yesterday to make my first trades, but stopped when it looked like I was forced to go through Google.

Yes, you do need a google account, it only takes a few minutes to create one, and if privacy is a concern you do not have to enter your real name when creating it.
Here are the reasons why we've decided to use google for our authentication system.

[quone17]

just tried to visit site for first time and could not access site.  Obviously not impressed. 

[Predictious]

just tried to visit site for first time and could not access site.  Obviously not impressed.  

We had a temporary outage due to an issue with our DNS host, this is now resolved.

[Predictious]

New Market on Predictious:

• Price of Bitcoin March 21st

[Predictious]

Check out our new blog: http://blog.predictious.com/

[Predictious]

New Markets/Contracts on Predictious:

• Vircurex Insolvency
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $50
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $100
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $300

[eldentyrell]

Yes, you do need a google account, it only takes a few minutes to create one, and if privacy is a concern you do not have to enter your real name when creating it.
Here are the reasons why we've decided to use google for our authentication system.

People who already have a Google account and don’t mind using it (the case of most people) have one less password to remember and one less account to secure. For people who don’t have a Google account, or don’t want to use the one they already own, they can easily create a new one, with fake personal information, and use it to access Predictious.

Absolutely not, this is a violation of Google's terms of service.  You're probably going to get your google authentication API privileges yanked for printing that both here and on your website.

Google also reserves the right to lock your account and require a working SMS-receiving cell phone number to identify you before unlocking it (even if you never gave them your phone number in the first place).  They claim this is some sort of anti-spammer thing.  I am not going to trust my coins to an organization that (a) will let google lock me out of my deposits and (b) can't figure out how to use a standard like OpenID.  This is extra surprising since google's authentication APIs are basically just a proprietization of OpenID.

Sad, really.  You've got a nice little site but clearly the security is not thought through well at all.  You have major technological counterparty risk and seem to be unaware of it.

[5thStreetResearch]

New Markets/Contracts on Predictious:

• Vircurex Insolvency
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $50
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $100
• Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $300

added just in time 

[Predictious]

New Market on Predictious:

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