.

[MAbtc]

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

No, I can't. My landlord doesn't accept bitcoins. I suppose I could work with some no-name company like billpayforcoins to send a company check to my landlord through Bitpay (what % cut they take TBD)... but I can also just convert to fiat and pay myself. So why would I do that?

I could have done that several months ago, too, in the midst of the last downtrend.

or use this old service that now allows bitcoin payments, IF your landloard uses this old service, http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/8/prweb11063422.htm

because if you spend it you don't pay capital gains tax. can't pay capital gains tax without any capital gains

The idea is cool, unfortunately never heard of them. Still, same deal. Pay through Bitpay and and eat fees.

Re taxes, do you have a legal basis for saying that, or are you just playing with words? I don't think I agree, and anyone considering that route should have a sitdown with a good attorney.

The term "fair market value" comes to mind in re to US tax code. Don't know about Canada, but again..... tax attorney.

Specifically, Section 988 of IRC seems to account for a "gain from the sale or other disposition of property" which is a taxable event.

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[adamstgBit]

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

you can pay your rent in bitcoin now

No, I can't. My landlord doesn't accept bitcoins. I suppose I could work with some no-name company like billpayforcoins to send a company check to my landlord through Bitpay (what % cut they take TBD)... but I can also just convert to fiat and pay myself. So why would I do that?

I could have done that several months ago, too, in the midst of the last downtrend.

or use this old service that now allows bitcoin payments, IF your landloard uses this old service, http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/8/prweb11063422.htm

because if you spend it you don't pay capital gains tax. can't pay capital gains tax without any capital gains

The idea is cool, unfortunately never heard of them. Still, same deal. Pay through Bitpay and and eat fees.

Re taxes, do you have a legal basis for saying that, or are you just playing with words? I don't think I agree, and anyone considering that route should have a sitdown with a good attorney.

The term "fair market value" comes to mind in re to US tax code. Don't know about Canada, but again..... tax attorney.

Specifically, Section 988 of IRC seems to account for a "gain from the sale or other disposition of property" which is a taxable event.

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

[MAbtc]

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

So that's not taxable? In the US, gains on barter transactions are taxable based on market value, unfortunately.

[adamstgBit]

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

So that's not taxable? In the US, gains on barter transactions are taxable based on market value, unfortunately.

ya its taxable, here too, no one actually decaires barter tx on their income taxes tho...


not sure if its income tax or VAT tax, steal your money because we can tax, idk...

[molecular]

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

So that's not taxable? In the US, gains on barter transactions are taxable based on market value, unfortunately.

ya its taxable, here too, no one actually decaires barter tx on their income taxes tho...


not sure if its income tax or VAT tax, steal your money because we can tax, idk...

For some reason I fear this might change.

[adamstgBit]

[BlockChains]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

This is somewhat bullish. A six page spread in The new issue of maximum pc http://m.imgur.com/a/6dDHQ

[MAbtc]

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

So that's not taxable? In the US, gains on barter transactions are taxable based on market value, unfortunately.

ya its taxable, here too, no one actually decaires barter tx on their income taxes tho...

not sure if its income tax or VAT tax, steal your money because we can tax, idk...

Yeah, agreed, I would never think to declare gains on barter ordinarily. I'm more just thinking in the context of bitcoins, with sizable gains. Tax man makes me nervous.  

[adamstgBit]

The CRA told the CBC there are two separate tax rules that apply to the electronic currency, depending on whether they are used as money to buy things or if they were merely bought and sold for speculative purposes.

"Barter transaction rules apply where BitCoins are used to purchase goods or services," Canada Revenue Agency spokesman Philippe Brideau said in an email.

move to canada.

So that's not taxable? In the US, gains on barter transactions are taxable based on market value, unfortunately.

ya its taxable, here too, no one actually decaires barter tx on their income taxes tho...

not sure if its income tax or VAT tax, steal your money because we can tax, idk...

Yeah, agreed, I would never think to declare gains on barter ordinarily. I'm more just thinking in the context of bitcoins, with sizable gains. Tax man makes me nervous.  

the worst that will happen is Tax man demands more money.

hope for the best be prepared for the worst?  

A friend recently got fucked, and now owes like 70K, because he wasn't declaring the scrapping he did for years, and he was doing it with a buddy splitting the profits 50-50
and now he's stuck with 100% of the tax liabilities....

there is a bright side to declaring more income, the banks will want lend you more dirty fiat! and you can buy a really big really over price house ( later to be repossessed when the interest rate goes to 15% and you can't make the payments anymore! )

[notme]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

This is somewhat bullish. A six page spread in The new issue of maximum pc http://m.imgur.com/a/6dDHQ

WTF is Maximum PC?  Do they have more than 1000 readers?

[adamstgBit]

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.

News = whatever. Nothing unprecedented. And it's priced in.

By the same token, it's quite clear looking at the chart that one could say the same about whale buyers. Without these intermittent whale buys, there is no volume to be seen.

lol, this is exactly what i'm talking about.

the bubble started with news of wordpress, and now the news we've been seeing these days is viewed as Nothing Special.

WEIRD!

Bitcoins were worth $10 back then. Now $130...... again, priced in.

Could you give some examples? Things that are significant now for price movement, that weren't a week ago, or 2 months ago, for instance?

This is somewhat bullish. A six page spread in The new issue of maximum pc http://m.imgur.com/a/6dDHQ

WTF is Maximum PC?  Do they have more than 1000 readers?

they have 21K twitter followers 74K facebook likes

seems like a small mag, but still ya more than 1000 readers

[Tzupy]

At the rate things are going I'd have to extend the target another week.

$137 Thursday, September 05, 2013

I should have stayed with the original methodology, which still seems to be holding for indicating reversal from intermediate peaks. But reading an indicator after the fact and projecting where it will converge in the future are two different things. Mostly, there just wasn't enough information to do the projection. But basically, the closer to the convergence we get the easier it is to see where it will happen. But I can not really predict how fast it will happen.

Ok, thanks for posting the new prediction.
However, it does not fit with my EW sub-sub-wave recognition. I expect the peak no later than tomorrow the 30th August, although I can't see any sign in market indicators yet.
The 30th fits from a temporal perspective, but not from money flow or MACD. And the peak could be quickly followed by a whale dump including the 127$ buy wall.
That's what happened in May, with a 25k+ BTC buy wall, also at 127$ IIRC. It could happen again.
Also, the 137$ peak value: it's too high IMO, it would require a buy of 1.8 M$ plus resistance. Do you see that much money available for the push?

It appears I was correct with the 30th August, but still the price peak could be later, as Chodpaba predicted, if panic buyers follow this whale buy.

[Tzupy]

How much higher, may I ask? To me it seems that it's a limited push, the money came from order redistribution, and the market is not yet following.
It reached a peak above 142, but there's only about 3k BTC buy orders from 129 to 140. This could reverse anytime.

[Tzupy]

Do you believe that we could go parabolic? Another 20k BTC out of the order book could trigger a parabolic rise IMO.
However, I suspect there's a smart whale who just wants the uber-bulls to believe that the market could go parabolic.

[superduh]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

$138

i may have been wrong sept 14 - $18x

[sickpig]

Just 1 - 2 days before the market dropping big, we have this large whale buy ( just the 125 wall ) that pushes the price
eventually beyond 130. Question: is this related to the news of the BF meeting or it's something else?
Anyway, this proved that one large whale buy ( or dump ) can't be predicted by TA.
Maybe he's trying to trigger a parabolic rise, but I still doubt he has the means.

Chodbapa, would you mind issuing another prediction, considering that the parameters have changed ( at least as I see )?

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

you have to be a genius. you missed it only by a day. incredible. now (30 Aug 17:11 UTC) gox is at almost 138 USD.
kudos

[oda.krell]

Isn't it obvious? chodpaba him/herself is the whale driving up the price.

1. Post predictions based on some fancy experimental indicator.
2. Be ridiculed for prediction.
3. Initiate corresponding buying program (simple. doesn't need more than ~100k coins.)
4. Gain people's trust, after prediction is confirmed
5. ???
6. Profit

[rampantparanoia]

5.

5. Take picture smoking joint & place as Bitcointalk avatar

[Tzupy]

Isn't it obvious? chodpaba him/herself is the whale driving up the price.

1. Post predictions based on some fancy experimental indicator.
2. Be ridiculed for prediction.
3. Initiate corresponding buying program (simple. doesn't need more than ~100k coins.)
4. Gain people's trust, after prediction is confirmed
5.
6. Profit

I asked myself the same question, and my guess is that it's not Chodpaba, I believe he does not fit the profile.
The smart whale about whom I wrote yesterday, but no one cared to comment, should be bullish in the forums.
After all, his current goal is to dump a lot of coins at the highest price the market can reach.

I copied what I wrote yesterday about the smart whale ( sorry, I'm too lazy to reformulate ):

I may have an answer for you. After looking again at the recent history, I believe there is one smart whale that started the
last rally to 130+, with a whale buy of about 8k BTC that smashed through the 125 resistance level ( up to 126 ).
Other smaller and slower whales followed, and then some panic buyers. The smart whale has already sold at least 4k BTC
around the 130 price, he positioned his sell orders almost one day before starting the rally ( saw this in the ask sum graph ).
This operation ( repeated ) is an efficient way to pump up the price without losing money. As for the final target of the smart whale,
it's to dump big at a higher price IMO. I have no idea what's his final price - at which he would dump big.
The smart whale could be one of you early adopters, with activity in the hundreds in this forum and ( tens of ? ) thousands of coins.
And he would hate to see his MO uncovered. About what to do in order to better adapt to his strategy, I don't know.
The smart whale covers his actions behind normal market movements, he just triggers them a bit sooner and stronger.

[Adrian-x]

@Tzupy
Don't kid your self more people read than comment, I read your post and was wowed. You earned a following of 1.
All in all chodpaba has provided the strategy that is effective. (deferred greed) buy and hold.