.

[rampantparanoia]

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

calm before the storm.

[1714947133]

1714947133

[1714947133]

1714947133

[1714947133]

1714947133

[1714947133]

1714947133

[1714947133]

1714947133

[SkRRJyTC]

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now?  All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

[SkRRJyTC]

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now?  All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

I think your trend is lacking volume.

[adpinbr]

Chodpaba do you believe that 5-7 digit bitcoins are likely to happen? If so wouldn't the best strategy be to wait till it goes lower and then buy in and hold? If my memory serves me correctly you once said something about deffered greed...

[byronbb]

If you are a green trader, nothing could be more foolish than trading this market. If you believe in bitcoin then buy and hold and just let things run its course.

[adpinbr]

thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?

[adpinbr]

Either of those scenarios and I think we are all happy campers. Hopefully around 2017 when finances collapse bitcoin infrastructure will be strong enough that people may consider bitcoin a global hedge. We will see tho

[byronbb]

thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?

2nd time someone has asked me that, but no, it's the shield for Mossad (Israel's CIA). However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.

[adpinbr]

you have a high influx of israelis on this forum, that must be way. There is a very strong bitcoin community in Israel. Partly due to Meni Rosenfeld, but more so the general Israeli population has the mind for things like bitcoin

[superduh]

israel has one of the biggest tech industries in the world. they are big fans. they also have quite a lot of gold shops there too

[SkRRJyTC]

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville.  

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now?  All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

I think your trend is lacking volume.

That speaks to the segment of the funds-holding population that is actually trading. There is a lot sitting on the sidelines.

It is a low information market.

edit: uninterestingly enough there is almost the same amount of volume between $136 down to $65.50 as there was from $65.50 back up to $148.70

Perhaps this is true, but it doesnt speak to the trend.  The trend consists of the people actually buying and selling, and there doesnt seem to be many compared to April.

I think the clear 'trend' will be showen after the breaking out of this consolidation range/triangle and you will certainly see the volume then.

[JimboToronto]

However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.

Damn. Now I can't get Frank Zappa out of my head.   

[Adrian-x]

I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

Code:

$75.20	median		Wednesday, October 23, 2013

This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0 I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.

[rampantparanoia]

I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

Code:

$75.20	median		Wednesday, October 23, 2013

This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0 I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.

The way I interpreted it - we're going down, the lowest point being

Code:

$52.64			Wednesday, October 09, 2013

If $75.20 is the median, it puts the max at $97.76. The range for October 9th is $52.64 - $97.76

All the dates are in October/November/December... nothing for this month, which leaves me confused as well.

[notme]

I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

Code:

$75.20	median		Wednesday, October 23, 2013

This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0 I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.

The way I interpreted it - we're going down, the lowest point being

Code:

$52.64			Wednesday, October 09, 2013

If $75.20 is the median, it puts the max at $97.76. The range for October 9th is $52.64 - $97.76

All the dates are in October/November/December... nothing for this month, which leaves me confused as well.

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

[Adrian-x]

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.

[Adrian-x]

... slightly more precise that saying we are going to "zero"—or "to da moon!!1!"  

thanks,
It is here were I cracked and LOL.  .

On a separate note I found the principals for "welth" growth interesting from a VC's perspective.  
http://gigaom.com/2013/09/10/as-bitcoin-hype-settles-down-real-possibilities-start-to-emerge/

[notme]

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.

Okay, you have a list of numbers.  You put them in order.  Median is the number middle (or average of the two middle numbers if there is an even count).  You can't say anything about the max given the minimum and median other than max >= median.

[rampantparanoia]

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

Not everyone is a math genius like yourself, so please forgive me oh Lord of the Numbers for utilizing the median as the literal center point of 2 numbers rather than the midpoint in a range data plots.

[Adrian-x]

Max was $103.03.  I don't think you know how medians work.

I am not going to argue, can you ELI5, I am not wanting to do the number crunching just understand the principal behind the method of prediction.

Okay, you have a list of numbers.  You put them in order.  Median is the number middle (or average of the two middle numbers if there is an even count).  You can't say anything about the max given the minimum and median other than max >= median.

thanks got it.