.

[Tzupy]

130$ on the 20th September is OK with me, but first I'd like to hit the 150$ level.
Until now, the wave pattern has been supportive ( uptrend ), and I believe that after a small correction, it may continue.

[1714965585]

1714965585

[1714965585]

1714965585

[1714965585]

1714965585

[1714965585]

1714965585

[1714965585]

1714965585

[1714965585]

1714965585

[lebing]

Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.

I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:

Friday, September 20, 2013   $130.27

I approve of this prediction(projection)!

Apologies for coming late to the party, but are you predicting gox or bitstamp's price here?

[notme]

Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.

I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:

Friday, September 20, 2013   $130.27

I approve of this prediction(projection)!

Apologies for coming late to the party, but are you predicting gox or bitstamp's price here?

Gox

[Tzupy]

Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.

I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:

Friday, September 20, 2013   $130.27

chodpaba, it would be nice of you to issue a prediction for 2 days from now, if possible.
We can reach a price of 130$ in two ways:
1. Drop to 120$ and then rebound to 130$.
2. Rise to 150$ and then drop to 130$.
I am very interested to find out if your method works reliably for a 2 days interval.

[lebing]

the methodology is certainly interesting, but in the face of the fundamental issues and other forces pushing the price higher I just don't see this drop happening in the short term. Until mtgox is able to reliably become an exchange again (rather than a trap...), the price essentially has only one direction.

[sidhujag]

syria is done so look for a drop i expected this month to be bearish.. If it doesnt end in a drop then october may provide bigger drops.

[adamstgBit]

syria is done so look for a drop i expected this month to be bearish.. If it doesnt end in a drop then october may provide bigger drops.

did US boom them?

[lebing]

the methodology is certainly interesting, but in the face of the fundamental issues and other forces pushing the price higher I just don't see this drop happening in the short term. Until mtgox is able to reliably become an exchange again (rather than a trap...), the price essentially has only one direction.

It is tempting to infer a psychology based on such 'fundamentals' but how do you measure that? What I am actually seeing is nothing more that a repetition of behaviors that can actually be measured. Until I see evidence that tells me something different I still have to base my conclusions on what can be demonstrated.

Right now I am taking a more principled look at the distribution of price movement, and I have discovered an interesting correlation between the standard deviation of movement from bin to bin, and momentum. It shows that as momentum picks up in either direction the standard deviation increases, and when momentum starts to reverse the standard deviation decreases. We have already gone through a period where the standard deviation has reached a minimum and it is now increasing again. I expect momentum to pick up in a downward direction. More to come...

Not everything that will affect the price can be measured. I'm not talking about psychology, I'm talking about the fact that people cannot get their fiat out of gox, which forces them to buy coins and move it elsewhere. This is simply a form of resignation which pushes the price up directly when those who finally realize there is no other way out decide to bite the bullet.

To be clear, I'm in no way discounting your methodology, I think it's very interesting and may be quite valid under normal market circumstances. But we are far from normal market circumstances and therefore there is no way one can use these sorts of techniques to achieve anything resembling market prediction.

[sidhujag]

syria is done so look for a drop i expected this month to be bearish.. If it doesnt end in a drop then october may provide bigger drops.

did US boom them?

hero member really? syria = bullish for btc last i checked

[derpinheimer]

$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

$175 Saturday, September 21, 2013

$187 Friday, September 27, 2013

$192 Sunday, September 29, 2013

Are these still active?

[superduh]

it's been stable within 15% for over a month now (guesstimating) this can mean only 2 things (obviously) either repeat of 2012 where price does nothing or what people call the moon

[adamstgBit]

just buy Buy BUY...

 

[molecular]

just buy Buy BUY...

 

why? 180 by end of week?

[Tzupy]

I find a lot more likely a drop to about 120$ followed by a rebound to about 130$.
But since it's Sunday it may happen in slow motion, due to the low volume.

[bitcoin carpenter]

im guessing it will be a repeat of sept 7 to the 13th

[Tzupy]

That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.

[bitcoin carpenter]

sorry i meant exactly the same, first well drop to 124ish then a rebound and a new wall at 140

[bitcoin carpenter]

lol rereading the post i should have just said that i agree with you

[Nemo1024]

A lesson that I learnt the hard way: you should never dump all.

[Tzupy]

It looks like some are pulling sell orders, at least 2k BTC worth, in preparation for a dump. Something similar happened on the 5th.