laughted at me when I said ASIC companies are manipulating you

[mmitech]

P4man said 2 years ago that no one except the vendors and some early adopters would make a profit out of ASIC.

Yet people are still placing orders for the old AM blades that are pretty much guaranteed to not pay for themselves.  What a racket.

I was talking to a friend today about this, each time I see an ASIC, I always say It could be a good deal if you get it for the 1/3 of the original price, allot of people here are educated but always fail to calculate  ROI  and the profit after  ROI, even when they do know that they will never make a ROI, they still put so much faith in these vendors, just hoping that the network charts will freeze so they can make some profit.


If people used common sense, these vendors would begs us to buy from them not the other way.

[1715002232]

1715002232

[1715002232]

1715002232

[miter_myles]

P4man said 2 years ago that no one except the vendors and some early adopters would make a profit out of ASIC.

Yet people are still placing orders for the old AM blades that are pretty much guaranteed to not pay for themselves.  What a racket.

I think ASICMINER is at least helping (slowly) put people in check with what they are selling their gear for..  people wanting gold bars for BFL equipment on hand is nuts..

[GenTarkin]

P4man said 2 years ago that no one except the vendors and some early adopters would make a profit out of ASIC.

Yet people are still placing orders for the old AM blades that are pretty much guaranteed to not pay for themselves.  What a racket.

I think ASICMINER is at least helping (slowly) put people in check with what they are selling their gear for..  people wanting gold bars for BFL equipment on hand is nuts..

keep prices in check?! your kidding right. They are the ones selling hardware way overpriced as well, just so they can easily keep adding to their network hashrate. Its the perfect model and unfortunate. Have people fund your operation up front, hold a huge portion of the network hashrate then keep the illusion of hope for miners by releasing overpriced hardware to them... just to keep funding their own operation in keeping 1/3rd the network hashrate. Its like saying "yeah Ill pay you to ensure that I will never make ROI... take my money!" Wish people would wake up and stop fueling the giant.

[reactor]

Here's the thing that makes me laugh.  A while back, AM USB's are 2BTC.  Then 1BTC.  Then .55BTC.  Then .32BTC.  Let's say the cost for AM is around $10.  They've been capitalist-robbing folks with their markup because they were the only shipping vendor, meaning they were able to do this.  This is how business is traditionally run, but people continually fool themselves into their purchases thinking it is a good value.

I want a new car because it is new, but it loses X% value the moment you roll it off the lot.  You order a BE USB today, gets delivered shortly before the next dif increase, by the time you're running on a full diff change the price dropped again.  K1 Nano w/ Avalon chips was exciting... until the price vs. availability question comes into play, and especially with Avalon delays and AM price drops there is no hope of them getting off the ground.  

Sadly, Butterfly Labs is the story of Bitcoin today.  Lofty aspirations, continual delays, poor customer service, wacky cast of characters, and by the time most of their customers have hardware in-hand it'll be a tough bet if they will pay themselves off.  Still, we are an industry of "pre-orders".  Still, we fund companies who mutually assure that the hardware they deliver will never live up to the dream.  

Yes the explanation "It is a huge up-front cost, nobody will fund that themselves in such a risky business" holds a lot of truth, but why?  People are banking off of mining hardware, if someone offered hardware tomorrow that shipped next week the community would dive headfirst into it as long as a few hero/senior members could verify units worked.  This would be the Hashfast sponsor "people will cancel their pre-orders" moment.  As-is, people can cancel pre-orders for pre-orders, hoping that people with a refund policy actually refund, and hoping their newest pre-order delivers when it will still make some cash back.  It's like the abused wife who keeps saying her husband really has good intentions and only takes advantage of her because he loves her.

Venture cash is out there, internet startups doing basically nothing can get enough funding to run the whole ASIC design/development/testing/fabrication process.  But nobody is doing it. That doesn't speak well long-term for Bitcoin as we know it today.  Here's the other problem - the only people who really give a damn about Bitcoin today are traders, miners, optimistic geeks, and manufacturers.  Mining will become a zero sum game sooner than anyone is willing to admit, so the primary reason for adoption (profit) goes away.  This means the network is only running and growing because people can continue to profit from it.  When that goes away...

[GenTarkin]

What I wish would happen ... would be an honest ASIC supplier who prices according to their costs and comes out and says "ok, this is our price no matter the diff, its x% above our cost to make"
Cost per piece w/ initial cost of mask & R&D .. prorated over every piece. I dont know w/e you guys get my point.
An honest fucking ASIC supplier would be nice.

Im willin to bet bitfury initial costs were paid for in the 100th machine. Its insane for them to charge 25k on a 400GH machine for "the rest of us miners" ... that damn thing probably cost like 1000$ .. hell probably not even that.

Bitcoin mining landscape will eventually look just like the banking industry. A select few mining corps control significant hashing power and can decide to do w/e they want with it. I hate the thought of centralized mining...but thats where its headed. Its not the ASICs thats what to blame. Its the suppliers who are at fault because they werent willing to keep the ASICs available to everyone(because of insanely high up front cost requirements as I mentioned in my first post in this topic)

[KWH]

[GenTarkin]

 Mining will become a zero sum game sooner than anyone is willing to admit, so the primary reason for adoption (profit) goes away.  This means the network is only running and growing because people can continue to profit from it.  When that goes away...

That is true, but you do have to remember ... that really will never go away. Bitcoin is interesting because no matter the price, theres always potential to make profit from mining and thats what keeps people in the game... but, as I explained previously, in the ASIC era, its an illusion, because many havent realized yet that what you make today in profit from ASICs will need to be saved to buy tomorrows ASICs.
When profits diminish people stop mining, diff drops & at some point settles to where it becomes profitable again, then thats when you have a huge surge of people getting back into mining.
Its kinda cool how that aspect works.... its designed perfectly to work w/ human greed and its that in of itself which keeps demand for mining alive over long period of time.

[reactor]

For some reason I love this.

[reactor]

 Mining will become a zero sum game sooner than anyone is willing to admit, so the primary reason for adoption (profit) goes away.  This means the network is only running and growing because people can continue to profit from it.  When that goes away...

That is true, but you do have to remember ... that really will never go away. Bitcoin is interesting because no matter the price, theres always potential to make profit from mining and thats what keeps people in the game... but, as I explained previously, in the ASIC era, its an illusion, because many havent realized yet that what you make today in profit from ASICs will need to be saved to buy tomorrows ASICs.
When profits diminish people stop mining, diff drops & at some point settles to where it becomes profitable again, then thats when you have a huge surge of people getting back into mining.
Its kinda cool how that aspect works.... its designed perfectly to work w/ human greed and its that in of itself which keeps demand for mining alive over long period of time.

But it is moving towards the above-mentioned centralization.  Right now the hobbyist can only afford to buy hardware they will never see a return on (so keeping vendors and resellers in business, which does nothing for Bitcoin) while the folks in the business for a while have made enough to justify purchasing (or I'll say 'betting') on new hardware.  The diff will raise to a point that only buying fuck-off expensive hardware or shares in a central mining pool will make sense if you want to "make money" from Bitcoin. 

The next gen of hardware will be worse.  The 'community' will be unable to afford it.  Most of the 'community' will be unable to run it for noise/heat/power reasons. 

Bitcoin doesn't have an answer to this, a market niche that it fills so perfectly that without all the mining hype it survives.  Yeah, it may be another long slide down in price as centralization happens, opening up a small door for another round of early adoption then screw everyone late through the door.  But that doesn't make BTC a winning proposition.

[crumbs]

Thus far, our ASIC makers were noobs & amateurs.  Each and every one got lost in the details -- fumbling the design & manufacture of ASICs.  Today's ASIC leaders have built upon the flimsy fundaments of their literal-minded predecessors, obsolescing tangible touchstones.

New, virtual ASICs for virtual currencies are here.  No more will the virtual miner be burdened with actual profits on his virtual currency!  Modern virtual corporations, virtually traded on virtual exchanges, are virtually free to do virtually whateverthefuq they virtually want.  
Am i speaking to the man of the house?  How many PH/sec should i sign you up for?

[mmitech]

Here's the thing that makes me laugh.  A while back, AM USB's are 2BTC.  Then 1BTC.  Then .55BTC.  Then .32BTC.  Let's say the cost for AM is around $10.  They've been capitalist-robbing folks with their markup because they were the only shipping vendor, meaning they were able to do this.  This is how business is traditionally run, but people continually fool themselves into their purchases thinking it is a good value.

I want a new car because it is new, but it loses X% value the moment you roll it off the lot.  You order a BE USB today, gets delivered shortly before the next dif increase, by the time you're running on a full diff change the price dropped again.  K1 Nano w/ Avalon chips was exciting... until the price vs. availability question comes into play, and especially with Avalon delays and AM price drops there is no hope of them getting off the ground.  

Sadly, Butterfly Labs is the story of Bitcoin today.  Lofty aspirations, continual delays, poor customer service, wacky cast of characters, and by the time most of their customers have hardware in-hand it'll be a tough bet if they will pay themselves off.  Still, we are an industry of "pre-orders".  Still, we fund companies who mutually assure that the hardware they deliver will never live up to the dream.  

Yes the explanation "It is a huge up-front cost, nobody will fund that themselves in such a risky business" holds a lot of truth, but why?  People are banking off of mining hardware, if someone offered hardware tomorrow that shipped next week the community would dive headfirst into it as long as a few hero/senior members could verify units worked.  This would be the Hashfast sponsor "people will cancel their pre-orders" moment.  As-is, people can cancel pre-orders for pre-orders, hoping that people with a refund policy actually refund, and hoping their newest pre-order delivers when it will still make some cash back.  It's like the abused wife who keeps saying her husband really has good intentions and only takes advantage of her because he loves her.

Venture cash is out there, internet startups doing basically nothing can get enough funding to run the whole ASIC design/development/testing/fabrication process.  But nobody is doing it. That doesn't speak well long-term for Bitcoin as we know it today.  Here's the other problem - the only people who really give a damn about Bitcoin today are traders, miners, optimistic geeks, and manufacturers.  Mining will become a zero sum game sooner than anyone is willing to admit, so the primary reason for adoption (profit) goes away.  This means the network is only running and growing because people can continue to profit from it.  When that goes away...

+1

What I wish would happen ... would be an honest ASIC supplier who prices according to their costs and comes out and says "ok, this is our price no matter the diff, its x% above our cost to make"
Cost per piece w/ initial cost of mask & R&D .. prorated over every piece. I dont know w/e you guys get my point.
An honest fucking ASIC supplier would be nice.

Im willin to bet bitfury initial costs were paid for in the 100th machine. Its insane for them to charge 25k on a 400GH machine for "the rest of us miners" ... that damn thing probably cost like 1000$ .. hell probably not even that.

Bitcoin mining landscape will eventually look just like the banking industry. A select few mining corps control significant hashing power and can decide to do w/e they want with it. I hate the thought of centralized mining...but thats where its headed. Its not the ASICs thats what to blame. Its the suppliers who are at fault because they werent willing to keep the ASICs available to everyone(because of insanely high up front cost requirements as I mentioned in my first post in this topic)

+1

they told me that If I can't afford an asic it doesn't mean that is expensive, I said If you can pay 5000-25000$ for it that doesn't mean it is cheap.

I was looking in the bottom of things, I work in production, we could do the same thing , but our initial profit never goes more than 25%, our customers have the first and the last word, simply because they are the only ones who matters, if we lose them we lose our business.

and yes I am happy that I am not the only one who thinks this way. this is why I started this thread .

[Bitcoinorama]

Here's the thing that makes me laugh.  A while back, AM USB's are 2BTC.  Then 1BTC.  Then .55BTC.  Then .32BTC.  Let's say the cost for AM is around $10.  They've been capitalist-robbing folks with their markup because they were the only shipping vendor, meaning they were able to do this.  This is how business is traditionally run, but people continually fool themselves into their purchases thinking it is a good value.

I want a new car because it is new, but it loses X% value the moment you roll it off the lot.  You order a BE USB today, gets delivered shortly before the next dif increase, by the time you're running on a full diff change the price dropped again.  K1 Nano w/ Avalon chips was exciting... until the price vs. availability question comes into play, and especially with Avalon delays and AM price drops there is no hope of them getting off the ground.  

Sadly, Butterfly Labs is the story of Bitcoin today.  Lofty aspirations, continual delays, poor customer service, wacky cast of characters, and by the time most of their customers have hardware in-hand it'll be a tough bet if they will pay themselves off.  Still, we are an industry of "pre-orders".  Still, we fund companies who mutually assure that the hardware they deliver will never live up to the dream.  

Yes the explanation "It is a huge up-front cost, nobody will fund that themselves in such a risky business" holds a lot of truth, but why?  People are banking off of mining hardware, if someone offered hardware tomorrow that shipped next week the community would dive headfirst into it as long as a few hero/senior members could verify units worked.  This would be the Hashfast sponsor "people will cancel their pre-orders" moment.  As-is, people can cancel pre-orders for pre-orders, hoping that people with a refund policy actually refund, and hoping their newest pre-order delivers when it will still make some cash back.  It's like the abused wife who keeps saying her husband really has good intentions and only takes advantage of her because he loves her.

Venture cash is out there, internet startups doing basically nothing can get enough funding to run the whole ASIC design/development/testing/fabrication process.  But nobody is doing it. That doesn't speak well long-term for Bitcoin as we know it today.  Here's the other problem - the only people who really give a damn about Bitcoin today are traders, miners, optimistic geeks, and manufacturers.  Mining will become a zero sum game sooner than anyone is willing to admit, so the primary reason for adoption (profit) goes away.  This means the network is only running and growing because people can continue to profit from it.  When that goes away...

Well apparently xcrowd claims to have, but wants you to tie your funds up unnecessarily in an escrow whilst they make their products. If they have sought VC then there is no need for this, they apparently just want to stop your from buying elsewhere. They could in complete honesty sell to you in hand if they had secure such funds. This is pre-ordering, but being told you are not preordering. Fact is it's your choice where you spend your money, but you could also wait and see what becomes available as it's proven, which is all that matters now. People are just fed up with being dicked around, and it's not the problem with ASICs, or the technology, or Bitcoin, but human nature, laziness and greed, with a dash of incompetence, lack of experience in running companies and especially scaling start-ups.

Choose your company wisely when pre-ordering you need both design talent and business experience as well as honesty and integrity.

[GenTarkin]

Next up will be the government or governments coming into these mining corps, demanding or bribing them into ownership and next thing we know.... we got the government once again controlling the financial sector from within =P

That would be hilarious & sad at the same fucking time. We know the true colors of said government...but when the above happens, we realize the true colors of the mining corps.
Like we already dont =P but just shows how fucking evil they are. They dont care about crypto-currency, they just wanna make a shit ton of money & they wouldnt care to sell out of the offering was good enough. Fucking pisses me off, this is why I want mining to remain in garages for hobbyists. Its much more difficult for the government to convince hundreds of thousands of garage miners to sell out then it is for a single mining corp that holds tons of hashrate.

Truth of the matter is, centralized mining is just bad on all fronts for a "decentralized currency" .. unfortunately its inevitable =(
And whos to fucking blame? once again... the ASIC suppliers and their insane price gouging tactics.

[Bitcoinorama]

Next up will be the government or governments coming into these mining corps, demanding or bribing them into ownership and next thing we know.... we got the government once again controlling the financial sector from within =P

That would be hilarious & sad at the same fucking time. We know the true colors of said government...but when the above happens, we realize the true colors of the mining corps.
Like we already dont =P but just shows how fucking evil they are. They dont care about crypto-currency, they just wanna make a shit ton of money & they wouldnt care to sell out of the offering was good enough. Fucking pisses me off, this is why I want mining to remain in garages for hobbyists. Its much more difficult for the government to convince hundreds of thousands of garage miners to sell out then it is for a single mining corp that holds tons of hashrate.

Truth of the matter is, centralized mining is just bad on all fronts for a "decentralized currency" .. unfortunately its inevitable =(
And whos to fucking blame? once again... the ASIC suppliers and their insane price gouging tactics.

I realise I'll be told I'm this, that or the other, but from what I saw when I visited KnC is they actually give a shit about a deal where everybody wins and cryptocurrencies gain momentum. If you don't want to believe, and at the end of the day actions speak louder than words, just keep an eye on them. It's part of the reason they've sponsored that young couple making the 'Life on Bitcoin' film, because they understand mining is only part of what makes cryptocurrencies real, the other side is the battle for public adoption, creating liquidity in the BTC market and getting merchants to accept and people to spend the coins. Their initial pricing has always had to cover NRE, then they can give people a better deal.

That said they also definitely said they for see mining eventually moving out of the garage and into the datacentres as people won't want a magic box collecting dust in their room when it can be housed with 24/7 uptime. I wanted to disagree with that, but it's inevitable unless households can power that much equipment...

[crumbs]

Next up will be the government or governments coming into these mining corps, demanding or bribing them into ownership and next thing we know.... we got the government once again controlling the financial sector from within =P

That would be hilarious & sad at the same fucking time. We know the true colors of said government...but when the above happens, we realize the true colors of the mining corps.
Like we already dont =P but just shows how fucking evil they are. They dont care about crypto-currency, they just wanna make a shit ton of money & they wouldnt care to sell out of the offering was good enough. Fucking pisses me off, this is why I want mining to remain in garages for hobbyists. Its much more difficult for the government to convince hundreds of thousands of garage miners to sell out then it is for a single mining corp that holds tons of hashrate.

Truth of the matter is, centralized mining is just bad on all fronts for a "decentralized currency" .. unfortunately its inevitable =(
And whos to fucking blame? once again... the ASIC suppliers and their insane price gouging tactics.

I realise I'll be told I'm this, that or the other, but from what I saw when I visited KnC is they actually give a shit about a deal where everybody wins and cryptocurrencies gain momentum. If you don't want to believe, and at the end of the day actions speak louder than words, just keep an eye on them. It's part of the reason they've sponsored that young couple making the 'Life on Bitcoin' film, because they understand mining is only part of what makes cryptocurrencies real, the other side is the battle for public adoption, creating liquidity in the BTC market and getting merchants to accept and people to spend the coins. Their initial pricing has always had to cover NRE, then they can give people a better deal.

That said they also definitely said they for see mining eventually moving out of the garage and into the datacentres as people won't want a magic box collecting dust in their room when it can be housed with 24/7 uptime. I wanted to disagree with that, but it's inevitable unless households can power that much equipment...

Come on.  Every efing ASIC company brays about their love for the solo miner, and, as soon as they can, makes a deal with a megaminer who's guaranteed to kill hobbyshoppers.  Wake up.  I have nothing against greed, but let's at least call it by name, instead of passing it off as "ah's securin' da networkz!!."

[johnyj]

As soon as the profit is too obvious (like January's Avalon launch and the price rally afterwards), people who have no idea about bitcoin would rush into the mining game

Usually these speculators will leave bitcoin once they found the mining is also highly risky, actually the risk of mining equipment investment has become so huge that it is simply better to purchase coins directly. I read somewhere that there was a chinese established a mining farm with many GPU rigs in 2011 summer, and he sold everything when price crashed that autumn

This time it will be different, given past history of 2011 crash and 2013 rally, these miners will keep mining at whatever the cost, and waiting for a future rally to bring their investment back

This is positive, the cheapest way to get coin will be purchasing, just like gold investment, most of the people will not try to establish a mining company to mine gold, and mining companies' profit is really thin

[reactor]

Choose your company wisely when pre-ordering you need both design talent and business experience as well as honesty and integrity.

Buuuuuuuuuuuuuut they are all still selling the impossible dream.  Avalon, AM, BFL, KNC, BitFury, HashFast, xCrowd, CoinTerra, LabCoin, and who knows who in the shadows are all delivering hardware around the same timeframe.  Everyone says "Look at this price for this rate, it's a sure win!" but nobody will admit to the fact that if the rate today is, say, 350TH, but each player above adds another 350TH in Oct-Dec of this year, even if half deliver, that brings us to a whopping 2,100TH by Jan 1, 2014.  Could be more, probably will be.  A 20% diff increase is nothing compared to what should happen if these companies all deliver.  

And at the end of the day, the BTC community will have handed over a lump of cash to these manufacturers, and even if they have the best intentions (KNC) we know there are people and companies who are more than happy to pounce on this next few months, make a killing, and leave just as quickly as they arrived with everyone sitting on expensive cup warmers.

[johnyj]

Next up will be the government or governments coming into these mining corps, demanding or bribing them into ownership and next thing we know.... we got the government once again controlling the financial sector from within =P

That would be hilarious & sad at the same fucking time. We know the true colors of said government...but when the above happens, we realize the true colors of the mining corps.
Like we already dont =P but just shows how fucking evil they are. They dont care about crypto-currency, they just wanna make a shit ton of money & they wouldnt care to sell out of the offering was good enough. Fucking pisses me off, this is why I want mining to remain in garages for hobbyists. Its much more difficult for the government to convince hundreds of thousands of garage miners to sell out then it is for a single mining corp that holds tons of hashrate.

Truth of the matter is, centralized mining is just bad on all fronts for a "decentralized currency" .. unfortunately its inevitable =(
And whos to fucking blame? once again... the ASIC suppliers and their insane price gouging tactics.

I think mining will mostly become distributed because of electricity and heat concerns, ASICminer's operation can not scale just because of these

A future with multiple mining companies each have their nuclear power plant in antarctica... how to prevent bitcoin from causing global warming??  

[Bitcoinorama]

Next up will be the government or governments coming into these mining corps, demanding or bribing them into ownership and next thing we know.... we got the government once again controlling the financial sector from within =P

That would be hilarious & sad at the same fucking time. We know the true colors of said government...but when the above happens, we realize the true colors of the mining corps.
Like we already dont =P but just shows how fucking evil they are. They dont care about crypto-currency, they just wanna make a shit ton of money & they wouldnt care to sell out of the offering was good enough. Fucking pisses me off, this is why I want mining to remain in garages for hobbyists. Its much more difficult for the government to convince hundreds of thousands of garage miners to sell out then it is for a single mining corp that holds tons of hashrate.

Truth of the matter is, centralized mining is just bad on all fronts for a "decentralized currency" .. unfortunately its inevitable =(
And whos to fucking blame? once again... the ASIC suppliers and their insane price gouging tactics.

I think mining will mostly become distributed because of electricity and heat concerns, ASICminer's operation can not scale just because of these

A future with multiple mining companies each have their nuclear power plant in antarctica... how to prevent bitcoin from causing global warming??  

Lol, but seriously Bitcoin still uses the tiniest amount of power in relation to fiat and payment processing with all the intermediaries concerned. But I want to see more renewables being used to power Bitcoin!

[crumbs]

...
I think mining will mostly become distributed because of electricity and heat concerns, ASICminer's operation can not scale just because of these

A future with multiple mining companies each have their nuclear power plant in antarctica... how to prevent bitcoin from causing global warming??  

We're not talking aluminum smelters here, and mining certainly scales up well.  If it doesn't make economic sense to mine commercially, how would hobby mining make sense?  Describe a scenario where a small miner makes a profit where large one loses money.