How high will the difficulty be in 60 days?

[silvergoldandbitcoin]

Estimates anyone?

[1714915378]

1714915378

[1714915378]

1714915378

[solex]

93,675,302

[ravix5]

If difficylty raise 20 -35%
93045167 < diff < 124200306 for an example, difficulty = 104043503 13-10-2013

[ridnovir]

currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month

that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI.

[ravix5]

why? 50 /37 = 1.35 sa dif change IS 35% NOT 40  and Jupiter is profitable
http://minercharts.com/?curr=0.10&prod=400000&cons=1000&investment=7200&currency=USD&investstart=2013-10-16&datefrom=2013-02-13&dateto=2014-02-10&diff_perc=35&bc_perc=

[crazyates]

currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month

that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI.

We're not going to jump 40% every single diff recalc. August was supposted to be a big month for ASIC delivery, and I think the next 2-3 months will see sharp increases, and then it will somewhat level off.

[ridnovir]

currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month

that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI.

here is a better calculator http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
even if you assume difficulty will increase %35 per 10 days and round it off to %100 per month the outlook is bleak

[FeedbackLoop]

125,000,000

[bitcoinator]

132,000,000

[af_newbie]

100 Aug
150 Sept 15
225 Sept 30
337.5 Oct 15


So look at 300M+  Avalon, BFLs, bitfury chips are coming

[jspielberg]

My latest exponential projections put around ~85M for 30 days and ~150M for 60 days.  Though those I bet will be low estimates.

[vesperwillow]

If some of the bigger rigs come online as projected, I believe it's likely you'll see number similar to this for a worse case scenario:

78 End of August
212 End of September
613 Last week of October

Less than worse case scenario:

78 End of August
162 End of September
241 Last week of October

Network speed has risen dramatically over the past few months, but we're just beginning to enter the "actual" rise. Growth will be exponential for a short time period, I'd wager you'll see the Network speed line shooting "almost straight up" for a short while sometime in the near future.

Some math whizz's have said they expect network speed to double or quadruple in the next 120 days. Not sure if I can bite into that, but it's certainly plausible.

[goxed]

My estimate is somewhere around 200M. My observation is around ~2% daily growth.

[Takeshi_Kovacs]

currently difficulty is at 37. and is estimated to jump to 50. which is %40 increase so, if this trend continues, we are talking %120 increase per month or %240 per 2 month

that is why I decided not to buy knc Jupiter at the moment, even if it is delivered in October as promised I still would not make ROI.

here is a better calculator http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
even if you assume difficulty will increase %35 per 10 days and round it off to %100 per month the outlook is bleak

Why would you round that off to 100%? A rate increase of 35% every 10 days is a rate increase of 146% over a 30 day period. That would take a 50M difficulty up to 123M in one month and then on to over 300M in 60 days. (You need to multiply percentage increases not add them.)

If the network hash rate increases at the same rate as in the last cycle, that is where we will be in 60 days - a difficulty of 300M.

That begs an important question. Will hash rates keep rising at 35% per cycle? What can we see from the network today? We are currently one third of the way through the current cycle and allchains.info estimates a 17.7% increase for the next cycle. Of course, that is not a real estimate. It really means that, over the last 3 days, the net has added enough hashing power to require a 17.7% increase in difficulty. The are seven more days to go before the next recalculation and there will surely be more hash power by then. If the trend over the last three days continues then the next difficulty jump would be greater than the last one. Of course random variance has a role to play in this and things may not be as bad as that - but equally, they may be worse.

[rolling]

222,716,830 on October 13th.

[smoothie]

Estimates anyone?

110,000,000

[vesperwillow]

My less-than-worst case scenario looks like it's close as of today.

[thy]

4-5 PH/s at least i guess so it should mean 550-660 million or so.

[vesperwillow]

I figured it's time to review how we all did lol

Estimates anyone?

60 days would've been 12-Oct. The last jump put us at 267,731,249 on 16-Oct, previous to that 189,281,249 on 6-Oct, a difference of 78,450,000 (source: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty). For simplicity's sake the linear daily difference is 7,845,000.

6 days @ 7,845,000 = 47,070,000. Add that to 6-Oct difficulty and we arrive at the 60 day rough difficulty projection of....

236,351,249

With that, here's the top 3 predictions:

vesperwillow - 241M (98% accuracey)
rolling - 222,716,830 (96.2% accuracy)
goxed - 200M. (84% accuracey)

I think these 3 did really well.

It's almost as if I knew something lol.

Sources:

If some of the bigger rigs come online as projected, I believe it's likely you'll see number similar to this for a worse case scenario:

78 End of August
212 End of September
613 Last week of October

Less than worse case scenario:

78 End of August
162 End of September
241 Last week of October

Network speed has risen dramatically over the past few months, but we're just beginning to enter the "actual" rise. Growth will be exponential for a short time period, I'd wager you'll see the Network speed line shooting "almost straight up" for a short while sometime in the near future.

Some math whizz's have said they expect network speed to double or quadruple in the next 120 days. Not sure if I can bite into that, but it's certainly plausible.

My estimate is somewhere around 200M. My observation is around ~2% daily growth.

222,716,830 on October 13th.

[petersiddle98]

1,200,000,000. 5 times of what it is now