Time to sue ButterflyLabs - Big Single-SC owner let's league for class action

[k9quaint]

[You mean like this order number 234234?
4860   2013/07/10   234234   No   1   2   3   4      asdf
or this order?
1073   2012/11/23   100057492   No   2   0   0   15      Blacksheep
Name:   BlackSheep
Posts:   9
Activity:   9
Position:   Jr. Member
Date Registered:   April 06, 2013, 08:28:04 PM
Last Active:   May 14, 2013, 11:44:29 PM

2/3rds Jalapenos? 3575 Jalapenos ordered, 4951 orders total. That is 72.2% of orders have a Jalapeno if nobody ordered more than one.
Sadly, there are orders for 5,8,10,12,16,25,40,64, & dozens for 2 or 3. That blows your 2/3rds estimate out of the water.
You made the same mistake with your 5/9ths as Singles. More orders of singles were for multiple units than not. Far fewer than 1 in 27 orders had a mini-rig, and again many were for multiple units.

This is not the guesstimate of someone who attended MIT.

Have you never done anything with probability and statistics?  if you pulll X samples out of a batch of Y and use the information from them, you can garner a working data point to extrapolate what the total would hold.

We have 4951 orders and 3575 Jalapenos, yes.  As you point out, this is 72%, but using 2 of 3 is a lot easier than using 18 of 25 to the average person.  Now IF on AVERAGE 2 of every 3 orders is a Jalapeno, and you are 12,300 order numbers into the book, that means out of 12,300 that you should have ~8,200 Jalapenos.

Nope. 2 out of 3 devices ordered might be a Jalapeno. But 2 out of 3 orders do not consist of orders of Jalapenos. You are mixing devices in absolute numbers with orders of devices (which can consist of multiple devices in multiple families). Also, order number 12000 does not equate to 12,000 orders. If that were true, then it would mean because there is an order number 100070471 in that data set that there are 100,070,471 orders from BFL. I think we can safely rule that out.

 This is how statistics work.  On that day there had been ~6400 order numbers of LS.  1/4 of this is ~1600LS.  900 singles order numbers gives us 500 singles and 2100 mini order numbers gave us 77.7.  8,200*5 = 41TH.  6400*30 = 19.2 TH  500 * 60 = 30TH and 77* 500 = 38.5TH.  41+19.2+30+38.5 = 128.7.  Obviously I am misremembering where the numbers were on that day, as I had a total at 165TH.

Actually, that is not how statistics works. Before you use a data set you need to assess it's quality. Determine how many entries are duplicates like these:
4843   2013/07/04   100070420   No   0   1   0   0      Algorn
4844   2013/07/04   100070420   No   0   1   0   0      Algorn
4845   2013/07/04   100070420   No   0   1   0   0      Algorn
Determine how many are obviously false like this one:
4860   2013/07/10   234234   No   1   2   3   4      asdf

Worse, you have based your entire assessment on 1 order number = 1 order. A cursory examination of the data will reveal this to be totally false (as would an understanding of databases and online order systems).

Sneer all you want, I care not, just because you cannot understand, you belittle and demean.  Go pat yourself on the back and try not to hurt yourself.

It is true, I cannot understand how someone who claims to attended MIT have such a bad aptitude at math and statistics.

[1715582713]

1715582713

[PuertoLibre]

too bad my IQ isnt higher... maybe i wouldnt have wasted 10 minutes reading this this crappy thread...

If you had an IQ of 190 and EQ of 10, you would have known this before having started.

[PuertoLibre]

Insert long post from k9quaint here

Got em' coach.

I get paid by the ASCII code

[Meizirkki]

Holy crap. BCP19 is the latest BFL sock. Everyone hail to the king of socks!

A sock? Hmm.
IQ: 148
Attended M.I.T. for 4 terms (could not afford to graduate)
worked odd jobs for 2 years
Joined the military.  Scored in the 98th percentile on the ASVAB.
Trained as an Aviation Electronics Technician
Worked and flew on the P-3C, in excess of 3,500 hours of flight time.
Retired after 20 years.

I sure don't see sock puppet in there anywhere, sorry.

BCP19

Go learn more about yourself http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy

[PuertoLibre]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

A friend maybe, to derail the thread possibly. He did invite me to his house to see his accomplishments earlier. Stranger Danger went off in my head.

I really don't care if you sue BFL or not, it's your money.  That said, a lot of the claims made here are flat out fiction.  In honesty, the inflammatory statements and outright lies made by some make it appear they only want to bankrupt BFL regardless of where or not they truly are a scam.  They are rallying the hordes to their cause and shout down any attempt to shed light on their claims.  I must be a huge friend to BFL to call them out for only having gone through less than 10% of their orders in 2+months.  I could be wildy wrong, the refunds I estimate at 10% of orders could be as high as 30%.  Maybe they truly did only have 90 total mini rigs ordered and are closer to 50% shipping on them.  It's all wild speculation though.

You're the one who kept calling me a child, were you afraid I'd get you on charges of being a pedophile?

Reminder:
BFL started shipping on April 1st 2013 according to normal folk, but according to Luke Jr. they started shipping on March 31st 2013.
(Counter-to-counter courier services provided by Josh Express®)

So it has actually been 4+ months.

[bcp19]

[You mean like this order number 234234?
4860   2013/07/10   234234   No   1   2   3   4      asdf
or this order?
1073   2012/11/23   100057492   No   2   0   0   15      Blacksheep
Name:   BlackSheep
Posts:   9
Activity:   9
Position:   Jr. Member
Date Registered:   April 06, 2013, 08:28:04 PM
Last Active:   May 14, 2013, 11:44:29 PM

2/3rds Jalapenos? 3575 Jalapenos ordered, 4951 orders total. That is 72.2% of orders have a Jalapeno if nobody ordered more than one.
Sadly, there are orders for 5,8,10,12,16,25,40,64, & dozens for 2 or 3. That blows your 2/3rds estimate out of the water.
You made the same mistake with your 5/9ths as Singles. More orders of singles were for multiple units than not. Far fewer than 1 in 27 orders had a mini-rig, and again many were for multiple units.

This is not the guesstimate of someone who attended MIT.

Have you never done anything with probability and statistics?  if you pulll X samples out of a batch of Y and use the information from them, you can garner a working data point to extrapolate what the total would hold.

We have 4951 orders and 3575 Jalapenos, yes.  As you point out, this is 72%, but using 2 of 3 is a lot easier than using 18 of 25 to the average person.  Now IF on AVERAGE 2 of every 3 orders is a Jalapeno, and you are 12,300 order numbers into the book, that means out of 12,300 that you should have ~8,200 Jalapenos.

Nope. 2 out of 3 devices ordered might be a Jalapeno. But 2 out of 3 orders do not consist of orders of Jalapenos. You are mixing devices in absolute numbers with orders of devices (which can consist of multiple devices in multiple families). Also, order number 12000 does not equate to 12,000 orders. If that were true, then it would mean because there is an order number 100070471 in that data set that there are 100,070,471 orders from BFL. I think we can safely rule that out.

 This is how statistics work.  On that day there had been ~6400 order numbers of LS.  1/4 of this is ~1600LS.  900 singles order numbers gives us 500 singles and 2100 mini order numbers gave us 77.7.  8,200*5 = 41TH.  6400*30 = 19.2 TH  500 * 60 = 30TH and 77* 500 = 38.5TH.  41+19.2+30+38.5 = 128.7.  Obviously I am misremembering where the numbers were on that day, as I had a total at 165TH.

Actually, that is not how statistics works. Before you use a data set you need to assess it's quality. Determine how many entries are duplicates like these:
4843   2013/07/04   100070420   No   0   1   0   0      Algorn
4844   2013/07/04   100070420   No   0   1   0   0      Algorn
4845   2013/07/04   100070420   No   0   1   0   0      Algorn
Determine how many are obviously false like this one:
4860   2013/07/10   234234   No   1   2   3   4      asdf

Worse, you have based your entire assessment on 1 order number = 1 order. A cursory examination of the data will reveal this to be totally false (as would an understanding of databases and online order systems).

Sneer all you want, I care not, just because you cannot understand, you belittle and demean.  Go pat yourself on the back and try not to hurt yourself.

It is true, I cannot understand how someone who claims to attended MIT have such a bad aptitude at math and statistics.

Yet again, you refuse to read and simply act the king of trolls and nitpick things you do not understand to death.

While there are some bad data points in the matrix, the overall premise still holds true.  You seem to expect me to go through and vet 4951 entries to determine if every single one of the is correct?  Impossible.  I'd have to have BFL's order book in hand to do such a thing.  We are still talking about an ESTIMATE.  You are talking absolute accuracy.  The two do not mesh.

Your fallacious assertation that 100070471 is 100 million orders highlights your ignorance.  That is only order number 70471.  While the lower numbered orders were ONLY the order number, somewhere around mid February it appears the 1000 prefix was added.  It really is too bad you cannot understand the simple logic behind that.  Some people seeing the lower numbers did not include the 1000 and others faithfully typed in the full order number.

Now, HOW you can say 2 out of 3 DEVICES ordered might be a Jalapeno, I really do not understand.  There are 7668 devices for 4951 orders!!!!  By using the average as I stated, that was using as given that each Jalapeno order was for 1 unit.  Who cares if 64 were ordered on 1 actual order?  if 2 out of every 3 orders contained a Jalapeno, the overall total would equal virtually the same thing!  WE ARE STILL ESTIMATING HERE!

What does it matter that I am using 1 order = 1 unit if the overall figures total the same in the end?  Why is simplification of the process so bad a thing to do?  Your need to pick things apart blinds you to the whole picture being displayed.  Who cares if you can stand 1 inch from a computer generated picture and see black dots and red dots and yellow dots?  What matters is when you step back and take it in as a whole it becomes a picture.

Go ahead, troll and nitpick some more. I know you will.

[joeventura]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

1) A Good debate does not allow name calling like being childish and calling someone a troll
2) Prove there are 200 data points or shut your face  - Good Debates use the data available
3) It does not matter how much BFL has shipped, it matters how fast. If Apple gets orders for 7 million Ipads and only delivers 800,000 in a year that matters, especially to the 6,200,000 that didn't get theirs.
4) You sir couldn't debate your way out of a wet paper bag. You lack contrary data, you like to call names, and act like a child.
5) We laugh at you, back under the bridge with you.

[peonminer]

Insert long post from k9quaint here

Got em' coach.

I get paid by the ASCII code

The best lulz today

[PuertoLibre]

What does it matter that I am using 1 order = 1 unit if the overall figures total the same in the end?  Why is simplification of the process so bad a thing to do?  Your need to pick things apart blinds you to the whole picture being displayed.  Who cares if you can stand 1 inch from a computer generated picture and see black dots and red dots and yellow dots?  What matters is when you step back and take it in as a whole it becomes a picture.

Go ahead, troll and nitpick some more. I know you will.

You filthy reductionist!

(Joking, but it's actually true....)

[Loredo]

BCP19

Go learn more about yourself http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy

I'm not quite sure what you are implying by this, but I think I take offense to it.

I have a step-son with cerebral palsy; it arises usually from brain damage at birth, affecting fine motor skills and muscle control.  It typically causes no intellectual impairment; that young man has a chess rating over 2000 (although he needs someone to move his pieces for him in tournaments), speaks (with cp "accent") three languages, and is in a PhD program at a major university in international relations.  

So, if this is a slam at the poster, I'm not sure what joke you were trying to make, but, I'm just setting the record straight here.

[bcp19]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

1) A Good debate does not allow name calling like being childish and calling someone a troll
2) Prove there are 200 data points or shut your face  - Good Debates use the data available
3) It does not matter how much BFL has shipped, it matters how fast. If Apple gets orders for 7 million Ipads and only delivers 800,000 in a year that matters, especially to the 6,200,000 that didn't get theirs.
4) You sir couldn't debate your way out of a wet paper bag. You lack contrary data, you like to call names, and act like a child.
5) We laugh at you, back under the bridge with you.

1) true.  having responded in kind after being called names was uncalled for.
2) I can point to 4,951 of them. http://bfl.ptz.ro/  While not COMPLETELY accurate, it's better than the stuff most people try to use.
3) Actually, how much does matter.  People are claiming less than 50TH when fairly accurate data points to closer to 165TH.  Defamation works in both directions.
4) You have come late to the party sir, wait until these same people have told you the same thing 20 times after being proved wrong cause they can't accept being wrong.
5) Really?  Name calling is childish and yet your IMPLYING I am a troll is not?  I challenge you to repent sir.

[joeventura]

So , ahh, all of this is just so much crap until someone provides contact info for some US lawfirm they've approached to represent those who have claims against BFL and want to pursue legal action.  Hint - a law firm proximal to BFL HQ is probably a good start.

The one time I've ever had a post deleted on the BFL forums, it was when I was musing about the extraordinary number of day-1 minirig orders, and thinking out loud about how, if it turned out that BFL had provided any kit ahead of the actual payment date for friends and/or staff, it would almost certainly constitute a fraud against their other customers.  I did say that I thought this was highly unlikely - but the post got deleted anyhow.

I guess it's conceivable that someone friendly with BFL could come along late and place an order for a dozen minirigs and formally or in informally make their order conditional on jumping to the front of the queue; but BFL would have to realise how that would put the company at risk, so I'm sure they wouldn't accept such a proposition - still, it's something to ponder.

I converted my order to Monarch within about half an hour of it being available, so I am in no position to demand a refund, and I really don't expect anyone angrily bashing away on their keyboards to actually initiate a legal suit, but even if they did I wouldn't be party to it.  If I get my Monarch in Dec/Jan I'll be delighted, but if BFL were to offer me a refund in the meantime I'd take it.

Here is a Law firm that would work:

http://www.scimlaw.com/

[joeventura]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

1) A Good debate does not allow name calling like being childish and calling someone a troll
2) Prove there are 200 data points or shut your face  - Good Debates use the data available
3) It does not matter how much BFL has shipped, it matters how fast. If Apple gets orders for 7 million Ipads and only delivers 800,000 in a year that matters, especially to the 6,200,000 that didn't get theirs.
4) You sir couldn't debate your way out of a wet paper bag. You lack contrary data, you like to call names, and act like a child.
5) We laugh at you, back under the bridge with you.

1) true.  having responded in kind after being called names was uncalled for.
2) I can point to 4,951 of them. http://bfl.ptz.ro/  While not COMPLETELY accurate, it's better than the stuff most people try to use.
3) Actually, how much does matter.  People are claiming less than 50TH when fairly accurate data points to closer to 165TH.  Defamation works in both directions.
4) You have come late to the party sir, wait until these same people have told you the same thing 20 times after being proved wrong cause they can't accept being wrong.
5) Really?  Name calling is childish and yet your IMPLYING I am a troll is not?  I challenge you to repent sir.

I was not implying, perhaps you were inferring?

[DrJoeGrine]

I guess if you tell yourself you a right enough times you might start to believe it. Ego is a hell of a drug.

In other news:

Public Service Announcement!
If you have ordered from Butterfly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask Butterfly Labs for one, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via BTC or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with BFL to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from BFL, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

[k9quaint]

Yet again, you refuse to read and simply act the king of trolls and nitpick things you do not understand to death.

I call it basic math, you call it nitpicking. Sorry, 2+2 != 5 is not nitpicking, even though you were just off by one.  

While there are some bad data points in the matrix, the overall premise still holds true.  You seem to expect me to go through and vet 4951 entries to determine if every single one of the is correct?  Impossible.  I'd have to have BFL's order book in hand to do such a thing.  We are still talking about an ESTIMATE.  You are talking absolute accuracy.  The two do not mesh.

It is fairly simple to screen out duplicate order numbers and even more simple to sort them and screen out obviously false order numbers. Even these simple steps were not taken.

Your fallacious assertation that 100070471 is 100 million orders highlights your ignorance.  That is only order number 70471.  

No. It is order number 100070471. It might be the 70,471st order taken, but you have no evidence to support that claim.

While the lower numbered orders were ONLY the order number, somewhere around mid February it appears the 1000 prefix was added.  It really is too bad you cannot understand the simple logic behind that.  Some people seeing the lower numbers did not include the 1000 and others faithfully typed in the full order number.

Supposition on your part how people are representing their order numbers. Furthermore, there are roughly 150 orders in a row that have the 1000 prefix, but are below 100016000. There are 250 orders that do not have the prefix but do have orders above 16000. These are grouped by date and do not overlap. That seems to blow your guesswork out of the water. I think you must have read somewhere on the internet about this, instead of looking at the data for yourself.

Now, HOW you can say 2 out of 3 DEVICES ordered might be a Jalapeno, I really do not understand.  There are 7668 devices for 4951 orders!!!!

Those two statements have nothing to do with each other. You care about how many devices are Jalapenos, not how many orders have Jalapenos in them. After all, there could be 1 order for 3900 Jalapenos and the average might still hold.

 By using the average as I stated, that was using as given that each Jalapeno order was for 1 unit.  Who cares if 64 were ordered on 1 actual order?  if 2 out of every 3 orders contained a Jalapeno, the overall total would equal virtually the same thing!  WE ARE STILL ESTIMATING HERE!

Nope. Each Jalapeno order was NOT for just one unit. Quite the opposite actually. So you cannot extrapolate number of orders to number of Jalapenos because you do not understand the distribution of Jalapenos across orders. Worse, you then added a huge number of "dark mini-rig" orders to make your 7PH/s claim add up.

What does it matter that I am using 1 order = 1 unit if the overall figures total the same in the end?  Why is simplification of the process so bad a thing to do?  Your need to pick things apart blinds you to the whole picture being displayed.  Who cares if you can stand 1 inch from a computer generated picture and see black dots and red dots and yellow dots?  What matters is when you step back and take it in as a whole it becomes a picture.

You simplified with bad assumptions and came up with an obviously incorrect number. Worse, you have been trying to defend it here and only made yourself look worse. If you thought BFL was going to ship 7PH/s and had already shipped 500TH/s, that might explain your undying support of them. Perhaps you can serve as an example to people out there that if they fail at math, they are liable to get fleeced by BFL. I doubt you have the math skills to ever understand your mistake.

And
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.
You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-forms

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

[DrJoeGrine]

Yet again, you refuse to read and simply act the king of trolls and nitpick things you do not understand to death.

I call it basic math, you call it nitpicking. Sorry, 2+2 != 5 is not nitpicking, even though you were just off by one.  

While there are some bad data points in the matrix, the overall premise still holds true.  You seem to expect me to go through and vet 4951 entries to determine if every single one of the is correct?  Impossible.  I'd have to have BFL's order book in hand to do such a thing.  We are still talking about an ESTIMATE.  You are talking absolute accuracy.  The two do not mesh.

It is fairly simple to screen out duplicate order numbers and even more simple to sort them and screen out obviously false order numbers. Even these simple steps were not taken.

Your fallacious assertation that 100070471 is 100 million orders highlights your ignorance.  That is only order number 70471.  

No. It is order number 100070471. It might be the 70,471st order taken, but you have no evidence to support that claim.

While the lower numbered orders were ONLY the order number, somewhere around mid February it appears the 1000 prefix was added.  It really is too bad you cannot understand the simple logic behind that.  Some people seeing the lower numbers did not include the 1000 and others faithfully typed in the full order number.

Supposition on your part how people are representing their order numbers. Furthermore, there are roughly 150 orders in a row that have the 1000 prefix, but are below 100016000. There are 250 orders that do not have the prefix but do have orders above 16000. These are grouped by date and do not overlap. That seems to blow your guesswork out of the water. I think you must have read somewhere on the internet about this, instead of looking at the data for yourself.

Now, HOW you can say 2 out of 3 DEVICES ordered might be a Jalapeno, I really do not understand.  There are 7668 devices for 4951 orders!!!!

Those two statements have nothing to do with each other. You care about how many devices are Jalapenos, not how many orders have Jalapenos in them. After all, there could be 1 order for 3900 Jalapenos and the average might still hold.

 By using the average as I stated, that was using as given that each Jalapeno order was for 1 unit.  Who cares if 64 were ordered on 1 actual order?  if 2 out of every 3 orders contained a Jalapeno, the overall total would equal virtually the same thing!  WE ARE STILL ESTIMATING HERE!

Nope. Each Jalapeno order was NOT for just one unit. Quite the opposite actually. So you cannot extrapolate number of orders to number of Jalapenos because you do not understand the distribution of Jalapenos across orders. Worse, you then added a huge number of "dark mini-rig" orders to make your 7PH/s claim add up.

What does it matter that I am using 1 order = 1 unit if the overall figures total the same in the end?  Why is simplification of the process so bad a thing to do?  Your need to pick things apart blinds you to the whole picture being displayed.  Who cares if you can stand 1 inch from a computer generated picture and see black dots and red dots and yellow dots?  What matters is when you step back and take it in as a whole it becomes a picture.

You simplified with bad assumptions and came up with an obviously incorrect number. Worse, you have been trying to defend it here and only made yourself look worse. If you thought BFL was going to ship 7PH/s and had already shipped 500TH/s, that might explain your undying support of them. Perhaps you can serve as an example to people out there that if they fail at math, they are liable to get fleeced by BFL. I doubt you have the math skills to ever understand your mistake.

And
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.
You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-forms

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

+1

Seems to me that a facepalm is in order.

[pyra-proxy]

 By using the average as I stated, that was using as given that each Jalapeno order was for 1 unit.  Who cares if 64 were ordered on 1 actual order?  if 2 out of every 3 orders contained a Jalapeno, the overall total would equal virtually the same thing!  WE ARE STILL ESTIMATING HERE!

Nope. Each Jalapeno order was NOT for just one unit. Quite the opposite actually. So you cannot extrapolate number of orders to number of Jalapenos because you do not understand the distribution of Jalapenos across orders. Worse, you then added a huge number of "dark mini-rig" orders to make your 7PH/s claim add up.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/bfl_jody/304-can-really-thursday-shipping-update.html

Jalapenos: January 21, 2013

Little Singles: Oct. 11, 2012 pay date

Singles: July 5, 2012 pay date

MiniRigs: MiniRigs for June 23 (2nd 500gh/s unit) and July 28 for 1st 500 gh/s

Observations:
People who ordered Jalapenos usually only ordered one.
People who ordered Singles often ordered 3, 6, 12 or more.
People who ordered in January hardly wrote us any emails.
People who order MiniRigs don't ask for refunds ...

fyi....

[bcp19]

Yet again, you refuse to read and simply act the king of trolls and nitpick things you do not understand to death.

I call it basic math, you call it nitpicking. Sorry, 2+2 != 5 is not nitpicking, even though you were just off by one.  

While there are some bad data points in the matrix, the overall premise still holds true.  You seem to expect me to go through and vet 4951 entries to determine if every single one of the is correct?  Impossible.  I'd have to have BFL's order book in hand to do such a thing.  We are still talking about an ESTIMATE.  You are talking absolute accuracy.  The two do not mesh.

It is fairly simple to screen out duplicate order numbers and even more simple to sort them and screen out obviously false order numbers. Even these simple steps were not taken.

Your fallacious assertation that 100070471 is 100 million orders highlights your ignorance.  That is only order number 70471.  

No. It is order number 100070471. It might be the 70,471st order taken, but you have no evidence to support that claim.

While the lower numbered orders were ONLY the order number, somewhere around mid February it appears the 1000 prefix was added.  It really is too bad you cannot understand the simple logic behind that.  Some people seeing the lower numbers did not include the 1000 and others faithfully typed in the full order number.

Supposition on your part how people are representing their order numbers. Furthermore, there are roughly 150 orders in a row that have the 1000 prefix, but are below 100016000. There are 250 orders that do not have the prefix but do have orders above 16000. These are grouped by date and do not overlap. That seems to blow your guesswork out of the water. I think you must have read somewhere on the internet about this, instead of looking at the data for yourself.

Now, HOW you can say 2 out of 3 DEVICES ordered might be a Jalapeno, I really do not understand.  There are 7668 devices for 4951 orders!!!!

Those two statements have nothing to do with each other. You care about how many devices are Jalapenos, not how many orders have Jalapenos in them. After all, there could be 1 order for 3900 Jalapenos and the average might still hold.

 By using the average as I stated, that was using as given that each Jalapeno order was for 1 unit.  Who cares if 64 were ordered on 1 actual order?  if 2 out of every 3 orders contained a Jalapeno, the overall total would equal virtually the same thing!  WE ARE STILL ESTIMATING HERE!

Nope. Each Jalapeno order was NOT for just one unit. Quite the opposite actually. So you cannot extrapolate number of orders to number of Jalapenos because you do not understand the distribution of Jalapenos across orders. Worse, you then added a huge number of "dark mini-rig" orders to make your 7PH/s claim add up.

What does it matter that I am using 1 order = 1 unit if the overall figures total the same in the end?  Why is simplification of the process so bad a thing to do?  Your need to pick things apart blinds you to the whole picture being displayed.  Who cares if you can stand 1 inch from a computer generated picture and see black dots and red dots and yellow dots?  What matters is when you step back and take it in as a whole it becomes a picture.

You simplified with bad assumptions and came up with an obviously incorrect number. Worse, you have been trying to defend it here and only made yourself look worse. If you thought BFL was going to ship 7PH/s and had already shipped 500TH/s, that might explain your undying support of them. Perhaps you can serve as an example to people out there that if they fail at math, they are liable to get fleeced by BFL. I doubt you have the math skills to ever understand your mistake.

Hmm, it appears you cannot see the forest for the trees.  I'm sorry dude, the forest is RIGHT THERE.  I cannot help it if all you see is trees.

That's still a forest.  I'm sorry if you cannot wrap your head around it, your semantics do not change the fact that it is a forest.

Yet again, you see those trees? THAT is a forest!  Your refusal to see that doesn't change it.

Forest.  Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest. Forest.

Forest.  Many trees = forest.  Forest.  Forest.  Forest.

Still semantics and still a forest.

[Xian01]

Holy crap. BCP19 is the latest BFL sock. Everyone hail to the king of socks!

A sock? Hmm.
IQ: 148
Attended M.I.T. for 4 terms (could not afford to graduate)
worked odd jobs for 2 years
Joined the military.  Scored in the 98th percentile on the ASVAB.
Trained as an Aviation Electronics Technician
Worked and flew on the P-3C, in excess of 3,500 hours of flight time.
Retired after 20 years.
I sure don't see sock puppet in there anywhere, sorry.

Alright, I take that comment back.

- because no one on the Internet lies
- because anyone who feels the need to advertise their IQ has a problem with their ego

Everything there is verifiable.  Can you say the same of your posts?

Prove me wrong, smart-guy.

[Meizirkki]

 it appears you cannot see

 I'm sorry if you cannot wrap your head around it

 Your refusal to see that doesn't change it.

sounding more like josh post by post