Time to sue ButterflyLabs - Big Single-SC owner let's league for class action

[mah87]

Holy crap. BCP19 is the latest BFL sock. Everyone hail to the king of socks!

A sock? Hmm.
IQ: 148
Attended M.I.T. for 4 terms (could not afford to graduate)
worked odd jobs for 2 years
Joined the military.  Scored in the 98th percentile on the ASVAB.
Trained as an Aviation Electronics Technician
Worked and flew on the P-3C, in excess of 3,500 hours of flight time.
Retired after 20 years.

I sure don't see sock puppet in there anywhere, sorry.

You are a BFL sock. And we don't give a shit about you IQ ...Do you have something to prove ?

[k9quaint]

Actually you are presenting non factual information as Inaba ie Joshua does post here. You are definitely posting like someone whom does not have a high IQ as all you have presented in any post is your assumptions.

While I have used examples to show things people refuse to believe, I never claimed any of them were fact.  I have said things like "If they shipped 1.5TH a day, this would be the result" and I have performed the calculations based on that IF.  People have made statements that shipping has stalled all because Singles: July 4 appeared 2 days in a row.  From there they make claims that BFL is intentionally NOT shipping to FORCE people to switch orders.

Followed by:

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Oops. bcp19 was asked to provide evidence of that 7PH and rising claim, but of course could not.
There are many more examples of bcp19 confusing fact and fan-fiction. 

What you fail to note is that they asked for a GUESTIMATE of how mant TH of preorders each company has.  A guess is a guess.  I never claimed it to be fact, it was, is and always will be a guess.  While you think cutting and pasting little anecdotes is cute and funny, in reality it is rather sad.  Instead fo trying to find REAL proof of anything, you manufacture it and mis-repesent it.  Grow up already.

Guesstimate: an estimate based on a mixture of guesswork and calculation.
When asked for your calculation, you could provide none. Of course, you could provide your calculations for the 7PH here. Then we could ridicule them and send you on your way. But I doubt someone with as much pride as you would risk showing your work. 

I stated then, as I do now, they were from another post that I looked for and did not find.

So you read somewhere on the internet that there was 7PH, then represented it as fact. Got it.

Using information from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ as a guide, on average you see .1TH of network speed per order placed.  Since ASIC orders start around 1600 due to upgraded FPGA orders, the then order numbers into the 72,000's indicated over 70,000 potential orders.  Simple math gets you from .1TH * 70,000 = 7PH.  This did not take into account, as I said, cancelled or refunded orders.  It was a guess of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK.

You are assuming that every time the order number increments, it indicates an order than corresponds to a single entry in bfl.ptz.ro worth 100GH/s. Incorrect assumption. We don't know how orders were grouped or what percentage of each device family registered with the list. What everyone could agree on was that mini-rigs were over represented in the data. Also, BFL would assign a number to an order that was never fully processed (payment did not complete), further skewing the numbers. Finally, the order number is probably a primary key in a database, they are not guaranteed to be a monotonically increasing sequence.

Extrapolating the mini-rig orders out smoothly is not a wise assumption. Mini-rig orders are most likely to be from people who have been to both bitcointalk and BFL forums and would be most likely to have encountered the list at bfl.ptz.ro. 1 time Jalapeno orders would be the least likely to have entered their order into the list. Mini-rigs are also a large investment, so the people who ordered them have the most incentive to register on the list to keep BFL honest. Assigning each BFL order number a value of 100GH/s is certainly wildly optimistic.

Finally, BFL is between 15% and 20% of the way through their order book.  If your estimate held up, that would indicate that they have already shipped between 1050TH/s and 1400TH/s according to your "guesstimate". This is can be verified as false because the network hash rate is no where near that.

[bcp19]

Holy crap. BCP19 is the latest BFL sock. Everyone hail to the king of socks!

A sock? Hmm.
IQ: 148
Attended M.I.T. for 4 terms (could not afford to graduate)
worked odd jobs for 2 years
Joined the military.  Scored in the 98th percentile on the ASVAB.
Trained as an Aviation Electronics Technician
Worked and flew on the P-3C, in excess of 3,500 hours of flight time.
Retired after 20 years.

I sure don't see sock puppet in there anywhere, sorry.

You are a BFL sock. And we don't give a shit about you IQ ...Do you have something to prove ?

Not to a troll like yourself, I know when not to beat a dead horse.

[DrJoeGrine]

Guys can we stop feeding the trolls.

And a Public Service Announcement!
If you have ordered from BFL and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask Butterfly Labs for one, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via BTC or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with BFL to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises.

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from BFL, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

[frankenmint]

FYI, BFL is actually physically located in Overland Park, Kansas but because of an old post office tradition, the Leawood mailing addgress is used.  Has to do with a few things that happened when Overlan Park tried to annex the whole county a few years back.

If you want the media in on this, here is the best way to go:

http://www.kctv5.com/category/209403/investigations

This TV station will not back down from any investigation they start.

My $.02.

thanks I filed a complaint despite living in CA

[Trupik]

...

I guess it's conceivable that someone friendly with BFL could come along late and place an order for a dozen minirigs and formally or in informally make their order conditional on jumping to the front of the queue; but BFL would have to realise how that would put the company at risk, so I'm sure they wouldn't accept such a proposition - still, it's something to ponder.

...

I consider this as a very good explanation of the slowness in MiniRig and Single SC production. For every "normal" customer being served, there have to be multiple of out-of-order units being built for VIP customers, employees, or the company itself.

[bcp19]

Actually you are presenting non factual information as Inaba ie Joshua does post here. You are definitely posting like someone whom does not have a high IQ as all you have presented in any post is your assumptions.

While I have used examples to show things people refuse to believe, I never claimed any of them were fact.  I have said things like "If they shipped 1.5TH a day, this would be the result" and I have performed the calculations based on that IF.  People have made statements that shipping has stalled all because Singles: July 4 appeared 2 days in a row.  From there they make claims that BFL is intentionally NOT shipping to FORCE people to switch orders.

Followed by:

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Oops. bcp19 was asked to provide evidence of that 7PH and rising claim, but of course could not.
There are many more examples of bcp19 confusing fact and fan-fiction. 

What you fail to note is that they asked for a GUESTIMATE of how mant TH of preorders each company has.  A guess is a guess.  I never claimed it to be fact, it was, is and always will be a guess.  While you think cutting and pasting little anecdotes is cute and funny, in reality it is rather sad.  Instead fo trying to find REAL proof of anything, you manufacture it and mis-repesent it.  Grow up already.

Guesstimate: an estimate based on a mixture of guesswork and calculation.
When asked for your calculation, you could provide none. Of course, you could provide your calculations for the 7PH here. Then we could ridicule them and send you on your way. But I doubt someone with as much pride as you would risk showing your work. 

I stated then, as I do now, they were from another post that I looked for and did not find.

So you read somewhere on the internet that there was 7PH, then represented it as fact. Got it.

Nope, troll failed again.  I had made a post detailing a breakdown of http://bfl.ptz.ro/ and by extrapolation came up with the estimated 7PH.  

Using information from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ as a guide, on average you see .1TH of network speed per order placed.  Since ASIC orders start around 1600 due to upgraded FPGA orders, the then order numbers into the 72,000's indicated over 70,000 potential orders.  Simple math gets you from .1TH * 70,000 = 7PH.  This did not take into account, as I said, cancelled or refunded orders.  It was a guess of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK.

You are assuming that every time the order number increments, it indicates an order than corresponds to a single entry in bfl.ptz.ro worth 100GH/s. Incorrect assumption. We don't know how orders were grouped or what percentage of each device family registered with the list. What everyone could agree on was that mini-rigs were over represented in the data. Also, BFL would assign a number to an order that was never fully processed (payment did not complete), further skewing the numbers. Finally, the order number is probably a primary key in a database, they are not guaranteed to be a monotonically increasing sequence.

Extrapolating the mini-rig orders out smoothly is not a wise assumption. Mini-rig orders are most likely to be from people who have been to both bitcointalk and BFL forums and would be most likely to have encountered the list at bfl.ptz.ro. 1 time Jalapeno orders would be the least likely to have entered their order into the list. Mini-rigs are also a large investment, so the people who ordered them have the most incentive to register on the list to keep BFL honest. Assigning each BFL order number a value of 100GH/s is certainly wildly optimistic.

Finally, BFL is between 15% and 20% of the way through their order book.  If your estimate held up, that would indicate that they have already shipped between 1050TH/s and 1400TH/s according to your "guesstimate". This is can be verified as false because the network hash rate is no where near that.

First, I understand quite well that http://bfl.ptz.ro/ and reality don't mesh, but it was a starting point.  I made no claims these were accurate, it was a guess and remains a guess.  Second, I doubt the REALLY big mini-rig buyers listed their orders.  According to http://bfl.ptz.ro/ only 10 minis were bought Day 1 and only 29 by the end of July.  It took them 21 shipping days to clear day 1 minis... 1 every other day?  Yet they cleared the other 19 in 11 shipping days?  I remember reading a rumor that an order for 50 mini's was placed day 1.  That would be 3 per shipping day for the day 1's IF TRUE and 2+ per shipping day since (if you add the 2/3's).  Makes more sense than 1/2 followed by 2.

Sadly, no, BFL is not even 10% of the way through their complete orderbook as I detailed it.  You are discounting the fact that their 2 biggest lines are the farthest behind.  If you go by order numbers alone, Jalapenos are only at 26%.  Little singles are only at 17%, Singles are only at 4% and the mini's are at 6% for 1/3 of orders and maybe 1-2% of 2nd?

That said, this also does not take into account cancelled orders and refunds.

Using the available data, i calculated 2/3 orders had a jalapeno, 1/4 had an LS, 5/9 had a single and 1/27 had a mini.  Using the order numbers they were up to at the time, these averages gave me 165TH for BFL when total hash was ~450TH.  Given the lack of other shippers and 40TH to bitfury, when added to the estimates everyone had for Avalon and ASICMiner, we were still about 30TH shy.  I felt that was a pretty good estimate.

[RoadStress]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

[DrJoeGrine]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

A friend maybe, to derail the thread possibly. He did invite me to his house to see his accomplishments earlier. Stranger Danger went off in my head.

[bcp19]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

[k9quaint]

Using information from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ as a guide, on average you see .1TH of network speed per order placed.  Since ASIC orders start around 1600 due to upgraded FPGA orders, the then order numbers into the 72,000's indicated over 70,000 potential orders.  Simple math gets you from .1TH * 70,000 = 7PH.  This did not take into account, as I said, cancelled or refunded orders.  It was a guess of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK.

You are assuming that every time the order number increments, it indicates an order than corresponds to a single entry in bfl.ptz.ro worth 100GH/s. Incorrect assumption. We don't know how orders were grouped or what percentage of each device family registered with the list. What everyone could agree on was that mini-rigs were over represented in the data. Also, BFL would assign a number to an order that was never fully processed (payment did not complete), further skewing the numbers. Finally, the order number is probably a primary key in a database, they are not guaranteed to be a monotonically increasing sequence.

Extrapolating the mini-rig orders out smoothly is not a wise assumption. Mini-rig orders are most likely to be from people who have been to both bitcointalk and BFL forums and would be most likely to have encountered the list at bfl.ptz.ro. 1 time Jalapeno orders would be the least likely to have entered their order into the list. Mini-rigs are also a large investment, so the people who ordered them have the most incentive to register on the list to keep BFL honest. Assigning each BFL order number a value of 100GH/s is certainly wildly optimistic.

Finally, BFL is between 15% and 20% of the way through their order book.  If your estimate held up, that would indicate that they have already shipped between 1050TH/s and 1400TH/s according to your "guesstimate". This is can be verified as false because the network hash rate is no where near that.

First, I understand quite well that http://bfl.ptz.ro/ and reality don't mesh, but it was a starting point.  I made no claims these were accurate, it was a guess and remains a guess.

You mean like this order number 234234?
4860   2013/07/10   234234   No   1   2   3   4      asdf
or this order?
1073   2012/11/23   100057492   No   2   0   0   15      Blacksheep
Name:   BlackSheep
Posts:   9
Activity:   9
Position:   Jr. Member
Date Registered:   April 06, 2013, 08:28:04 PM
Last Active:   May 14, 2013, 11:44:29 PM

Second, I doubt the REALLY big mini-rig buyers listed their orders.  According to http://bfl.ptz.ro/ only 10 minis were bought Day 1 and only 29 by the end of July.  It took them 21 shipping days to clear day 1 minis... 1 every other day?  Yet they cleared the other 19 in 11 shipping days?  I remember reading a rumor that an order for 50 mini's was placed day 1.  That would be 3 per shipping day for the day 1's IF TRUE and 2+ per shipping day since (if you add the 2/3's).  Makes more sense than 1/2 followed by 2.

So you think there are a massive number of "dark mini-rig orders" that make up the difference between what the data shows and your conclusions.

Sadly, no, BFL is not even 10% of the way through their complete orderbook as I detailed it.  You are discounting the fact that their 2 biggest lines are the farthest behind.  If you go by order numbers alone, Jalapenos are only at 26%.  Little singles are only at 17%, Singles are only at 4% and the mini's are at 6% for 1/3 of orders and maybe 1-2% of 2nd?

15% by order number, not by hash rate (which there is no way to divine). Again you rely on your "dark mini-rig" mass to account for the difference.

That said, this also does not take into account cancelled orders and refunds.
Using the available data, i calculated 2/3 orders had a jalapeno, 1/4 had an LS, 5/9 had a single and 1/27 had a mini.  Using the order numbers they were up to at the time, these averages gave me 165TH for BFL when total hash was ~450TH.  Given the lack of other shippers and 40TH to bitfury, when added to the estimates everyone had for Avalon and ASICMiner, we were still about 30TH shy.  I felt that was a pretty good estimate.

2/3rds Jalapenos? 3575 Jalapenos ordered, 4951 orders total. That is 72.2% of orders have a Jalapeno if nobody ordered more than one.
Sadly, there are orders for 5,8,10,12,16,25,40,64, & dozens for 2 or 3. That blows your 2/3rds estimate out of the water.
You made the same mistake with your 5/9ths as Singles. More orders of singles were for multiple units than not. Far fewer than 1 in 27 orders had a mini-rig, and again many were for multiple units.

This is not the guesstimate of someone who attended MIT.

Another example of bcp19 playing fast and lose with the facts:

3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.

I specifically disabused him of this notion and dismantled his assertions to the contrary. Again, obviously not MIT material as he is unable to understand even basic currency calculations.

[bcp19]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

A friend maybe, to derail the thread possibly. He did invite me to his house to see his accomplishments earlier. Stranger Danger went off in my head.

I really don't care if you sue BFL or not, it's your money.  That said, a lot of the claims made here are flat out fiction.  In honesty, the inflammatory statements and outright lies made by some make it appear they only want to bankrupt BFL regardless of where or not they truly are a scam.  They are rallying the hordes to their cause and shout down any attempt to shed light on their claims.  I must be a huge friend to BFL to call them out for only having gone through less than 10% of their orders in 2+months.  I could be wildy wrong, the refunds I estimate at 10% of orders could be as high as 30%.  Maybe they truly did only have 90 total mini rigs ordered and are closer to 50% shipping on them.  It's all wild speculation though.

You're the one who kept calling me a child, were you afraid I'd get you on charges of being a pedophile?

[peonminer]

Insert long post from k9quaint here

Got em' coach.

[k9quaint]

Insert long post from k9quaint here

Got em' coach.

I get paid by the ASCII code

[DrJoeGrine]

And the derailment continues, now using incendiary tactics to provoke confrontations. Definitely not the approach of someone with such purported intellect.   More like a child one would guess.

[RoadStress]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

1) Ok but they are still way behind and as long as you are entitled to an opinion we are entitled to one too so let us think whatever we want and we will let you think whatever you want.
2) You have too much spare time.
3) You have too much spare time and we are free to dislike you for whatever reason we want. Your reasons towards k9 make me feel that you really lack the IQ you said you have.
4) You have too much spare time.
5) Someone with IQ 148 isn't looking for a good debate on an internet forum especially this one with those people.

[bcp19]

[You mean like this order number 234234?
4860   2013/07/10   234234   No   1   2   3   4      asdf
or this order?
1073   2012/11/23   100057492   No   2   0   0   15      Blacksheep
Name:   BlackSheep
Posts:   9
Activity:   9
Position:   Jr. Member
Date Registered:   April 06, 2013, 08:28:04 PM
Last Active:   May 14, 2013, 11:44:29 PM

2/3rds Jalapenos? 3575 Jalapenos ordered, 4951 orders total. That is 72.2% of orders have a Jalapeno if nobody ordered more than one.
Sadly, there are orders for 5,8,10,12,16,25,40,64, & dozens for 2 or 3. That blows your 2/3rds estimate out of the water.
You made the same mistake with your 5/9ths as Singles. More orders of singles were for multiple units than not. Far fewer than 1 in 27 orders had a mini-rig, and again many were for multiple units.

This is not the guesstimate of someone who attended MIT.

Have you never done anything with probability and statistics?  if you pulll X samples out of a batch of Y and use the information from them, you can garner a working data point to extrapolate what the total would hold.

We have 4951 orders and 3575 Jalapenos, yes.  As you point out, this is 72%, but using 2 of 3 is a lot easier than using 18 of 25 to the average person.  Now IF on AVERAGE 2 of every 3 orders is a Jalapeno, and you are 12,300 order numbers into the book, that means out of 12,300 that you should have ~8,200 Jalapenos.  This is how statistics work.  On that day there had been ~6400 order numbers of LS.  1/4 of this is ~1600LS.  900 singles order numbers gives us 500 singles and 2100 mini order numbers gave us 77.7.  8,200*5 = 41TH.  6400*30 = 19.2 TH  500 * 60 = 30TH and 77* 500 = 38.5TH.  41+19.2+30+38.5 = 128.7.  Obviously I am misremembering where the numbers were on that day, as I had a total at 165TH.

Sneer all you want, I care not, just because you cannot understand, you belittle and demean.  Go pat yourself on the back and try not to hurt yourself.

[bcp19]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

1) Ok but they are still way behind and as long as you are entitled to an opinion we are entitled to one too so let us think whatever we want and we will let you think whatever you want.
2) You have too much spare time.
3) You have too much spare time and we are free to dislike you for whatever reason we want. Your reasons towards k9 make me feel that you really lack the IQ you said you have.
4) You have too much spare time.
5) Someone with IQ 148 isn't looking for a good debate on an internet forum especially this one with those people.

Your points are good and solid.  I think you would be a good debate partner.

[xzempt]

too bad my IQ isnt higher... maybe i wouldnt have wasted 10 minutes reading this this crappy thread...

[peonminer]

Will someone tell me what bcp19 exactly wants?

1) I believe (not a fact) that BFL has shipped more than people believe.
2) I dislike the trolls who used 2 data points out of 200 and try to make a valid arguement.
3) I kinda just dislike k9 in general, cause he seems to think BTC is a set currency and not a volatile commodity.
4) I really enjoy laughing at PG
5) I love a good debate

1) Ok but they are still way behind and as long as you are entitled to an opinion we are entitled to one too so let us think whatever we want and we will let you think whatever you want.
2) You have too much spare time.
3) You have too much spare time and we are free to dislike you for whatever reason we want. Your reasons towards k9 make me feel that you really lack the IQ you said you have.
4) You have too much spare time.
5) Someone with IQ 148 isn't looking for a good debate on an internet forum especially this one with those people.

Your points are good and solid.  I think you would be a good debate partner.