Those who deny that BTC will rise to seven figures: clearly explain yourselves

[johnyj]

I think 1 million dollar bitcoin is likely to happen in a run away inflation environment, but under such a situation, people won't even sell their coins

[minarchist]

OP: Please help me understand your poll.  At 118 US dollars = 1 BTC; does that equate to 3 figures (digits)?  If so then 1,000,000 US dollars = 1 BTC is the threshold you are concerned with, right?  That's a lot more demand than we have right now.  I would be very surprised if that much fiat shows up at the exchanges anytime soon.  Can *anyone* say how much fiat has been pumped into Bitcoin through the exchanges and other avenues?  The Bitcoin capitilization is something like $1.2 billion right now *but* it did not take that much fiat to get it there.  Fundamentally it is a confidence game.  If buyers believe then they will bid higher and higher.  If one buyer showed up and bought 1 BTC for $1,000,000 through an exchange that reports it then for at least a brief moment your threshold would be met.  The next exchange might happen back down in the hundreds but so be it.  Btw, I'd be delighted to be the one to sell one of my own Bitcoins to acheive this.  Or are you rejecting any and all such artificial occurances?

I implicitly mean a sustained value of that level or higher so that Bitcoin is the de facto main international currency.

[ElectricMucus]

So early adopters in bitcoin are still better than federal reserve banks

Don't call them adopters, nobody adopted anything. They were early miners, you can argue they've earned it because they promoted Bitcoin initially.
But then you'd have to give the FED bankers the same credit. They too were in the right place at the right time.

[crumbs]

...
I have proved that deflative currency will incentivise spending and discourage hoarding permanently when a certain amount of saving is done,

Where?  If you have, you're the only one.

so this is not the real reason behind the adoption of inflative currency

You understand that fiat != inflationary currency, right?  Fiat can also be deflationary, if that's what you want.  Most people don't.

The real reason could be:

1. Without a fast circulation of money, the banks would not make enough income in interest

Why?

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

[Carlton Banks]

The holy trinity of uber-trolls all in the one thread! "Don't cross the streams"

[zubelutte]

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

This one is not so easy and laws require you to accept fiat money as legal tender

[minarchist]

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

This one is not so easy and laws require you to accept fiat money as legal tender

"Just refuse to have sex with the guy who wants to rape you."

[xxjs]

OP: Please help me understand your poll.  At 118 US dollars = 1 BTC; does that equate to 3 figures (digits)?  If so then 1,000,000 US dollars = 1 BTC is the threshold you are concerned with, right?  That's a lot more demand than we have right now.  I would be very surprised if that much fiat shows up at the exchanges anytime soon.  Can *anyone* say how much fiat has been pumped into Bitcoin through the exchanges and other avenues?  The Bitcoin capitilization is something like $1.2 billion right now *but* it did not take that much fiat to get it there.  Fundamentally it is a confidence game.  If buyers believe then they will bid higher and higher.  If one buyer showed up and bought 1 BTC for $1,000,000 through an exchange that reports it then for at least a brief moment your threshold would be met.  The next exchange might happen back down in the hundreds but so be it.  Btw, I'd be delighted to be the one to sell one of my own Bitcoins to acheive this.  Or are you rejecting any and all such artificial occurances?

Money does not have to show up at an exchange. There is no "pumping into" bitcoin.
Look: If those with current asks all change their asks up with f.ex USD10, and the same om the bit side, the value of bitcoin has changed. You need only a few small trades at the new level to be certain what the price really is.

[xxjs]

I don't have to explain myself.

you usually complain about money velocity and when it comes to inflation your opinion is the less the value of the money becomes over time the better it is LOL

If you say so.

Actually I'm in favor of a system where the buying power of the money remains constant.

And this is clearly impossible.

[xxjs]

I don't have to explain myself.

you usually complain about money velocity and when it comes to inflation your opinion is the less the value of the money becomes over time the better it is LOL

If you say so.

Actually I'm in favor of a system where the buying power of the money remains constant.

And this is clearly impossible.

... because, should something like a stable currency show up, people would be less interested in holding assumed inflation hedging assets, which would itself change all prices, including the price of money measured in goods.

[crumbs]

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

This one is not so easy and laws require you to accept fiat money as legal tender

Don't be ridiculous -- in most jurisdictions you may specify how you except expect your debt to be extinguished -- you are only obligated to accept legal tender *if that debt was accrued without a payment method being specified.*  You wish to sell a car?  Put up a sign "For Sale! 23 BTC!!1!"  When i walk up and ask you "how much is that in dollars," you can reply "i'm not accepting dollars, only BTC!"  Perfectly legal.  You can also specify seashells or bark.  People might laugh, but they won't call the cops.

If *you* run up debts, OTOH, you may be asked to pay in fiat.  The solution is simple -- don't run up such debts.

Your government will, undoubtedly, *tax* you in fiat, and you have to render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's.  That's life

[MAbtc]

Why is the burden squarely on the bears? What is the basis for your position, OP?

In the context of fiat sucking so badly that only a retard would think that it would last indefinitely, when something as revolutionary as Bitcoin appears it is incumbent on those who claim that Bitcoin will not do well to explain why.

So, everyone besides you, and those who agree with you, is a retard. That's a really compelling argument for why you don't have to explain yourself.

Because robbing and raping the shit out of people is so honest and noble if you're a keynesian asswipe.

Let me guess. You're some rothbardian asswipe? 

[notme]

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

This one is not so easy and laws require you to accept fiat money as legal tender

Don't be ridiculous -- in most jurisdictions you may specify how you except your debt to be extinguished -- you are only obligated to accept legal tender *if that debt was accrued without a payment method being specified.*  You wish to sell a car?  Put up a sign "For Sale! 23 BTC!!1!"  When i walk up and ask you "how much is that in dollars," you can reply "i'm not accepting dollars, only BTC!"  Perfectly legal.  You can also specify seashells or bark.  People might laugh, but they won't call the cops.

If *you* run up debts, OTOH, you may be asked to pay in fiat.  The solution is simple -- don't run up such debts.

Your government will, undoubtedly, *tax* you in fiat, and you have to render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's.  That's life

Yep.  Legal tender laws only have to be accepted as settlement of debt.  If you don't extend anyone credit, you can't be forced to accept dollars.

[mp420]

I for one believe fiat money is not going anywhere at least in the next 50 to 100 years. The monetary policy may change and maybe there's going to be an actual kinda bitcoin-like (but nonpseudonymous) crypto version of fiat money at some point (not technically feasible at the moment but we never know, the scalability issues that affect Bitcoin might someday be solved).

Bitcoin might yet rise an order of magnitude or two, but that's the max. More likely it's never rising above $700 (a number I pulled out of my arse).

Near term I'm bearish. We're seeing a redistribution of the bubble money, virtually no one new is coming aboard. When the bubble fiat runs out, the price is going to collapse.

[johnyj]

...
I have proved that deflative currency will incentivise spending and discourage hoarding permanently when a certain amount of saving is done

Where?  If you have, you're the only one.

It's very simple, just one more step: Deflative currency at first will encourage hoarding, but when people build up a reserve through hoarding, that reserve will increase in value over time, so you have a guaranteed income source, a secure net, that will encourage spending long term wise

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277275.0

so this is not the real reason behind the adoption of inflative currency

You understand that fiat != inflationary currency, right?  Fiat can also be deflationary, if that's what you want.  Most people don't.

Debt based fiat money issuing must be inflationary, because you have to print more money to pay back the interest. Look at the ever increasing national debt, without ever expanding money supply, it is not possible to pay back those debts' interest

The real reason could be:

1. Without a fast circulation of money, the banks would not make enough income in interest

Why?

Commercial banks mostly living on the interest difference between loan and deposit. A deflative currency will encourage saving instead of borrowing, so banks will have no income. An inflative currency encourage borrowing, it can be loaned out many times through FRB, banks can make lots of profit during the process

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

If no one is borrowing money from banks, banks will have huge problems. Their trick to keep the value of fiat money is to let the government borrow more and more from them

[Carlton Banks]

This thread = Signal < Noise

In just three pages. Astounding.

[crumbs]

...
I have proved that deflative currency will incentivise spending and discourage hoarding permanently when a certain amount of saving is done

Where?  If you have, you're the only one.

It's very simple, just one more step: Deflative currency at first will encourage hoarding, but when people build up a reserve through hoarding, that reserve will increase in value over time, so you have a guaranteed income source, a secure net, that will encourage spending long term wise
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277275.0

What happens to the economy during the hoarding period?
If my bitcoins consistently outperform running a business, why would i *ever* start spending?  I'll just keep cashing out tiny fractions of my bitcoin stash, as its value keeps growing.  Just like you described in your link.
Profit, foreverz!  
What, other than my stupidity, would make me spend?

so this is not the real reason behind the adoption of inflative currency

You understand that fiat != inflationary currency, right?  Fiat can also be deflationary, if that's what you want.  Most people don't.

Debt based fiat money issuing must be inflationary, because you have to pring more money to pay back the interest. Look at the ever increasing national debt, without ever expanding money supply, it is not possible to pay back those debts' interest

Don't be silly -- you agree that the FED just prints more monyz whenever it feels like it, right?  So they'll just burn some midnight oil at the money factory, and print up enough bills to pay off every debt.
Simple

The real reason could be:

1. Without a fast circulation of money, the banks would not make enough income in interest

Why?

Commercial banks mostly living on the interest difference between loan and deposit. A deflative currency will encourage saving instead of borrowing, so banks will have no income. An inflative currency encourage borrowing, it can be loaned out many times through FRB, banks can make lots of profit during the process

Banks will profit the same way as Joe in the link you gave -- they'll just hold on to their money & it will grow & grow, no need to add water or lend.  Deflationary money, remember?  The value of the money banks hold will increase forever, without them doing a lick of work or taking any chances.  Profit!

2. If people don't spend fiat money, then they don't need fiat money, then fiat money will lose its value quickly, the money printing scam will be discovered easily

So don't spend fiat money, don't use fiat money, and your problem's solved.  Presto!

If no one is borrowing money from banks, banks will have huge problems. Their trick to keep the value of fiat money is to let the government borrow more and more from them

But *you* know it's just a trick, so don't use fiat.  How much simpler can it be?
The governments will destroy themselves.  
Just like with deflationary money, all we must do to profit is ... nothing!

[ElectricMucus]

I don't have to explain myself.

you usually complain about money velocity and when it comes to inflation your opinion is the less the value of the money becomes over time the better it is LOL

If you say so.

Actually I'm in favor of a system where the buying power of the money remains constant.

And this is clearly impossible.

... because, should something like a stable currency show up, people would be less interested in holding assumed inflation hedging assets, which would itself change all prices, including the price of money measured in goods.

Ever heard of the Nash Equilibrium?

[johnyj]

What happens to the economy during the hoarding period?
If my bitcoins consistently outperform running a business, why would i *ever* start spending?  I'll just keep cashing out tiny fractions of my bitcoin stash, as its value keeps growing.  Just like you described in your link.
Profit, foreverz!  
What, other than my stupidity, would make me spend?

Just like a pension fund, you need to first accumulate enought amount of saving before you spend, if you saved only $5000 worth of bitcoin, spending 10% of that each year won't make your ends meet

The hoarding period is not the same for everyone, some early adopters of bitcoin already finished this phase and they can start to spend without worrying about the future, just like some people who have already worked 35 years and just retired

Don't be silly -- you agree that the FED just prints more monyz whenever it feels like it, right?  So they'll just burn some midnight oil at the money factory, and print up enough bills to pay off every debt.
Simple

That is possible, but since FED is owned by a bounch of private banks, I doubt that they will write off those debt, especially when they can create more fiat and lend them to government for refinancing

Banks will profit the same way as Joe in the link you gave -- they'll just hold on to their money & it will grow & grow, no need to add water or lend.  Deflationary money, remember?  The value of the money banks hold will increase forever, without them doing a lick of work or taking any chances.  Profit!

There will be no bank with bitcoin, everyone will take care of their own coins, since banks have operational cost, giving bitcoins to a bank will get lower income than holding coins by yourself. Of course there will be people who want to rely on others to handle their money, then we have twin's ETF

But *you* know it's just a trick, so don't use fiat.  How much simpler can it be?
The governments will destroy themselves.  
Just like with deflationary money, all we must do to profit is ... nothing!

You can profit by doing nothing only after you have accumulated enough amount of bitcoin, and during that phase, you were working. Bitcoin is just a medium of saving which gains in value over time, your life will be much easier with such a deflative medium of saving

[halfawake]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.