Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[ecliptic]

Don't forget Bitfury's private pool(at least I believe it is his pool) -> https://ghash.io/. I haven't been keeping up with it but I know it has grown to 100 TH/s very quickly. This has nothing to do with the 100TH(now 200TH) mine. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bitfury just maintain 20% of the network for months to come given how efficient his chips are.

edit: Just realized this post may not be useful for the purpose of your thread. Just something that should be considered though given the opportunity that Bitfury has to replace ASICMINER as the 800 pound gorilla on the network. If ASICMINER's 2nd generation chips can compete with Bitfury you could end up with a large chunk of the network held by those two.

This is a single person with this hasing power?

Single person is probably not accurate.  It is a single entity I imagine it takes more than one person to build, manage, and maintain it.

Ok, I had heard some talk that it was a combined pool of various, numerous people who had bought those chips

[1714801821]

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[1714801821]

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[dhenson]

I think you may be underestimating KnC as they pan to mine on their own devices and we have no idea how much that will add.

[Ytterbium]

Um, are you forgetting someone?

For the test run we opted for QFP packaging, 44 pin, no exposed heat pad, here is a small preview :

They should have 3-4TH in a few weeks, and will be ordering a 50TH run of chips soon, which should be delivered late September, and online in Oct.

[World]

[ActiveMining] 24 TH/s.
http://thegenesisblock.com/easic-announces-24-ths-hash-fast-miner-activemining-shares-move-70/

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think you may be underestimating KnC as they pan to mine on their own devices and we have no idea how much that will add.

True however we need to start somewhere.  Who knows what the future hashrate will be BUT if we know 6 PH/s has been pre-ordered then we know it will at least rise by that much.  IF we believe it is realistic that will be deployed by end of Dec then that lets of start to see growth of the network.

[DeathAndTaxes]

[ActiveMining] 24 TH/s.
http://thegenesisblock.com/easic-announces-24-ths-hash-fast-miner-activemining-shares-move-70/

Um, are you forgetting someone? [Labcoin]

For the test run we opted for QFP packaging, 44 pin, no exposed heat pad, here is a small preview :

They should have 3-4TH in a few weeks, and will be ordering a 50TH run of chips soon, which should be delivered late September, and online in Oct.

Both added.  Thanks.

[glendall]

Thanks for the work on making this analysis.

It's sort of scary but good to know.

[DeathAndTaxes]

The thread title says 8 TH/s by end of 2013

I believe you mean 8 PH/s.

Yes.  Thanks & fixed.

[kakobrekla]

Ok, I had heard some talk that it was a combined pool of various, numerous people who had bought those chips

Its not a single person pool, I have access and I am not bitfury.

Anyway, interesting read D&T.

[SolarSilver]

Some more specs of the new chip by Bitmine.ch

https://bitmine.ch/?p=882

Power usage of 0.35 W/GH in low power, 0.6 W/GH in nominal and 1 W/GH in Turbo mode

https://bitmine.ch/?page_id=863

[600watt]

so what is worst case ?

1000 mio diff at the beginning of 2014 ?

level at about 1400 mio in march ?

if you run 500 GH/s from jan - dez 2014 with this diff you would would mine 65 btc

hm...  

[bcp19]

so what is worst case ?

1000 mio diff at the beginning of 2014 ?

level at about 1400 mio in march ?

if you run 500 GH/s from jan - dez 2014 with this diff you would would mine 65 btc

hm...  

I had originally thought 1 billion difficulty by ~15 Nov, but with Avalon's problem causing a domino effect of the start-ups, I'm beginning to think we might not hit it by the end of the year.  The next 45 days will tell the story, once KNC starts shipping I think we'll have a clearer picture.  They seem to have the largest preorder batch atm.

[GodHatesFigs]

Thanks for compiling this!

[Mutated btc]

what those numbers in brackets mean next to hash numbers? in op

thank you

[Cablez]

Those are citations for the end of the OP.

[organofcorti]

This is a huge job, d&T - thanks for taking it on.

[smoothie]

D&T has done a good guestimate on the hash rate numbers by the end of the year.

My other thread I totally underestimated the hashrate at the end of the year in my poll.

5 PH/s to 9 PH/s by year end sounds definitely feasible. I'd guess on the higher end (closer to 9).

Good job D&T

[Ytterbium]

Labcoin's upped their 2013 max to 200-300TH/s based on their 65nm chip.   the 50th should be by the end of october.

[FeedbackLoop]

Some more specs of the new chip by Bitmine.ch

https://bitmine.ch/?p=882

Power usage of 0.35 W/GH in low power, 0.6 W/GH in nominal and 1 W/GH in Turbo mode

https://bitmine.ch/?page_id=863

Order numbers upon placing one for a rig are presently around 1300. Not sure if they bundle all products together in order numbers.

[SolarSilver]

Order numbers upon placing one for a rig are presently around 1300. Not sure if they bundle all products together in order numbers.

It's the same order system they used for their Batch #1 and Batch #2 Avalon clones and the orders seem to be consecutive. They probably include BTC orders that timed out by late or no payment.