Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[qiuness]

this does not look good for the Jupiter's!

[600watt]

this does not look good for the Jupiter's!

would you share your figures?

[World]

another player? 
http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/chinese-company-phoenix-technologies-increases-production-of-asic-chips-329528.htm
http://bitcoinminingcenter.com/products/

[Cablez]

another player? 
http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/chinese-company-phoenix-technologies-increases-production-of-asic-chips-329528.htm
http://bitcoinminingcenter.com/products/

I am surprised that they would produce more chips because their pricing is not that great for their release timeline.

[SolarSilver]

I am surprised that they would produce more chips because their pricing is not that great for their release timeline.

500GH/S Hash Rate
- Shipping within 8-10 weeks of ordering
- Power Consumption: 2160 W

(Batch one consists of 100 units to qualify for the first shipping date you must be in batch one if you are in batch two shipping dates will be extended)

Price: $14,790.00

Shipping:$650.00

4 times more expensive and 8 times more power consumption than some 28 nm offerings

[Roy Badami]

March is probably a bit pessimistic for Bitmine now, given they're taking pre-orders and claiming a 16 December ship date.

https://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-desk

[Puppet]

This may also give an indication for volume:
https://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-ai-asic

If you buy the chips in bulk, they give prices for orders of up to 10K chips (400TH). That may be their entire production run, but that seems rather unlikely, since they would have no more chips to put in their own miners .
2PH for the batch is probably a more sane guestimate.

Dear God, I knew asic mining would be trouble before BFL even announced their first chip, but even I had never anticipated THIS many asic vendors coming out with 28nm chips in roughly the same time. Even if only a fraction actually end up shipping, this is going to be one hell of a bloodbath!

[Cablez]

It just goes to show you how many chip makers there are in the woodwork. And these really aren't the big boys either, imagine that.

[Puppet]

It just goes to show you how many chip makers there are in the woodwork. And these really aren't the big boys either, imagine that.

Big or small doesnt really matter a whole lot here, considering how "simple" bitcoin asics are, at least compared to CPU's, SoCs or even GPUs.
Even if Intel/AMD/nVidia were to design one, Im sure they could make it a bit more efficient or faster, but the difference wouldnt likely be very big.

The real differentiator is the process tech, and with 28nm all these companies are pretty much on state of the art for whats available commercially.

Anyway, just saying I dont expect anything spectacular to happen after the transition to these asics. I doubt it will even make sense to invest in a 20/22 or 14nm maskset in the coming years.

[Cablez]

I think process tech so far is the biggest factor to performance and efficiency but there are design benefits to be had as well.  Just look at what bitfury accomplished only on 55nm node.

When ASIC saturation occurs and that difficulty curve levels out again we will see the lower process nodes showing their faces as miners will want a bigger piece of the pie always and the only way to get that is through efficiency gains.

[Puppet]

I think process tech so far is the biggest factor to performance and efficiency but there are design benefits to be had as well.  Just look at what bitfury accomplished only on 55nm node.
When ASIC saturation occurs and that difficulty curve levels out again we will see the lower process nodes showing their faces as miners will want a bigger piece of the pie always and the only way to get that is through efficiency gains.

yeah, I just wonder if there will be a market to make good on the multi million dollar investment for a 20nm maskset.
By the time difficulty levels out, mining profitability will be so marginal, I cant see a lot of demand even if electrical efficiency of a new chip is substantially better (but not orders of magnitude better).
More likely is that the mining will shift towards miners with very cheap/free electricity.

To put it differently, if 55nm asics had been in production for a longer time and  the providers able to keep up with demand, allowing the market prices to approach production cost (which will happen inevitably), so that current difficulty would be 10-100x higher than it is today,   Im not even sure there would have been a viable market for 28nm products.

Anyway, we may or may not see another shrink one day, but we will never again see the difficulty explosion thats about to happen.  Fun times ahead .

[Cablez]

I patiently await the leveling off as well.

[qiuness]

4-5PH by December... leveling off somewhere in January maybe feb.. but it'll be to late by then

[OldGeek]

4-5PH by December... leveling off somewhere in January maybe feb.. but it'll be to late by then

It’s already too late if you believe the stats here:  http://blockchain.info/stats

Mining Profits
Operating Profit   $-1,542,928.64
Operating Margin   -272.43%   
Profit Margin **   -490.89%

In fact the graph (http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin) shows that it has been too late since about July of this year.

/Frank

[JohnDow1968]

https://bitmine.ch

[Syke]

In fact the graph (http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin) shows that it has been too late since about July of this year.

That chart needs to be redone.

* Electricity consumption is estimated based on power consumption of 650 Watts per gigahash and electricity price of 15 cent per kilowatt hour. In reality some miners will be more or less efficient.

** For profit margin hardware costs are estimated to be $1000 per gigahash every 2 years, and bandwidth $1 per gigahash per year.

Both of those assumptions are no longer accurate.

[Puppet]

Here is a chart showing the theoretical network speed were miners can still achieve break even after one year, in function of electricity price and asic production cost (based on  hashfast's specs):



Note that this is an "end game" simulation that assumes ASIC prices have come down as far as they reasonably can given the production cost. Current market prices are still orders of magnitude above that, so dont read that as if you can buy a cointerra rig for $5000 now and still break even when the network goes to 200PH.

More explanation and if you want to play the numbers, go here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.msg3165594#msg3165594

[DeathAndTaxes]

$250 to $50 per TH/s?  The low end of that range is less than the cost of fabrication right, even in volume and with 100% yields?  Throw in other components, assembly, labor, and profit margin and we aren't going to see $50 per TH/s.  You might as well graph a chart showing $50 per PH/s.

[Puppet]

$250 to $50 per TH/s?  The low end of that range is less than the cost of fabrication right, even in volume and with 100% yields?

Dont know yet. For hashfast's chip I get $90 per TH using these assumptions:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.0

But it remains to be seen if hashfast is the most efficient 28nm design and likewise, volume prices of $4000 per wafer might be a reasonable assumption today, but in one or two years, it will be down substantially. $2-$2.5K is a more typical wafer price once the process has matured.

Im not predicting $50 per TH, but I certainly wouldnt rule it out either.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I got to run but I will make some comments on your thread later.  I think it is an interesting idea I just think some of the lines may be optimistic to the point of lacking utility.