Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[Puppet]

Another day, another asic announcement (blackarrow, apparently well known and with good rep for selling bitcoin FPGAs):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.0

Also for completeness, labcoin posted some numbers, they are shooting for 500TH by december:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg3148724#msg3148724

scam or no scam, who knows, but you can ask that of many companies.

[RoadStress]

Another day, another asic announcement (blackarrow, apparently well known and with good rep for selling bitcoin FPGAs):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.0

Also for completeness, labcoin posted some numbers, they are shooting for 500TH by december:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg3148724#msg3148724

scam or no scam, who knows, but you can ask that of many companies.

scam or no scam they can't even post a mining address...

[el_rlee]

1 PH actually only means 10M$ for a 51% attack at a rate of 10$/GH...

What would be a "healthy" relationship between the value of the safe and the money in it?

[btc_uzr]

KNC Sept/Oct 500TH/s is way too low, because September are day1+2 [1,7] only(?) and ~800 orders [2].
Most of the orders contain at least one Jupiter, few orders contain one Saturn [6] which has not upgraded meanwhile [speculation].
October orders are shipped on 11 business days, so lets assume another 11*(800/2)= 4400 orders (containing Mercuries as well).
According to knc-staff Jupiter will have at least 500GH/s [3].

So let's calculate with 0,5TH/s as an average per order [6]: (800 + 4400) * 0,5TH/s = 2.600TH/s
Maybe even more since there are orders with 6,8,10+ Jupiters [6].
Cloudhashing wanted to buy from knc as well [4], don't know whether they actually pre-ordered. If so I guess it's one huge order. Looks like they did [7].


Those days knc is shipping ppl will think the network-graph must be broken as it is showing hashrate increase at an angle of 88° or so until October 15th when last ones are shipped [5]. At least it will not be comparable to anything we saw before during this time x_X



[1] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-32
  "Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September."

[2] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-20
  "The number was 890 but has dropped a little as not all bank transfers arrived in time."

[3] http://forum.kncminer.com/forum/main-category/hardware/107-psu-recommendation-jupiter-the-largest-planet?p=1050#post1050
  "According to our engineers an 850W, 80+ Gold certified PSU should be enough for a Jupiter running at the expected speed of 500 GH/s."

[4] https://cloudhashing.com/blog/13-blog/press/65-bitcoin-mining-as-a-service-maas
  "He (Cloudhashing’s founder, Emmanuel Abiodun) is also in negotiation with KNC, which he says is pledging September delivery for its own ASIC products."

[5] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-33
  " All current paid orders will be shipped no later than October 15th.
    All new sales will reflect our November price point of;"

[6] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=249065.0
   "In Total 138 Jupiter 65 Saturn 17 Mercury"

[7] https://www.cloudhashing.com/frequently-asked-questions
  "A1: (...) We are currently mining and by September 2013, will be operating at over 115 terahashes. This number will climb steeply to 300 terahashes by November 2013. "
  "A2: We expect mining for September contracts to start by 26th September 2013 (...)"


*edits:
-added [speculation]
-removed [unverified] - thanks for contribution!
-added new links
-made it more readable

Hm, seems like the main assumption my foreward was based on, is actually a misinterpretation and wrong (?):

“Currently we’re looking at 450 Th/sec that we expect to enter the network between September and the end of October,” Cole predicts. That will mean substantially increased difficulty as more miners come onstream.

Sam Cole KnC

http://www.coindesk.com/a-look-inside-kncminer/

*edit:
...hm...when thinking twice it does not make sense.
450TH/s divided by 0,4TH/s (Jupiter spec at this time) = 1125 Jupiters and no saturn, no mars

In the beginning those numbers in the cart were  set to 3000 in case my memory doesn't play tricks on me
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg2635325#msg2635325


*edit2:
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&sl=es&tl=en&u=http://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/innovation/forskning_utveckling/article3759919.ece
"Customers have already ordered several thousand."
"According to Johan Rilegård the company has already received a few thousand orders for boxes"

[GodHatesFigs]

1 PH actually only means 10M$ for a 51% attack at a rate of 10$/GH...

What would be a "healthy" relationship between the value of the safe and the money in it?

Very interesting question. Anyone got stats?

[polarhei]

Pre-order is completely nothing but the first real 500Th/s can be possible by Kncminer due to the shipping. but for caution note. Since there are many problem for the current model. If you like to win, two methods must be used at the same time.

[FeedbackLoop]

Bitfury is shipping these early:

http://www.bitfurystrikesback.com/product/bitfury-reel-fifo/

that's 9 TH-s per reel...

How many reels are they delivering?

[Puppet]

How many reels are they delivering?

I had no problems adding 1000 reels to my cart. I may have some problems coming up with the €83,700,000 needed to find out if they actually ship

Anyway, 9TH in a box is kinda cool.

[console_cowboy]

How many reels are they delivering?

I had no problems adding 1000 reels to my cart. I may have some problems coming up with the €83,700,000 needed to find out if they actually ship

Anyway, 9TH in a box is kinda cool.

I wonder if that is a poorly coded web cart or a true indicator of the number of reels they are shipping. I'd go with the former.

[ArthurBitcoin]

Now that Bitcointalk is back up... How are these projections coming along?

Any major changes that should be noted?

[btc_uzr]

so far KnC seems to ship less than guesstimated (and slower)
Cointerra is already late on tape out as it seems: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269093.msg3337524#msg3337524
Hashfast statement is 'shipping Oct. 20-30th' but: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262052.msg3340500#msg3340500

[RoadStress]

so far KnC seems to ship less than guesstimated (and slower)
Cointerra is already late on tape out as it seems: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269093.msg3337524#msg3337524
Hashfast statement is 'shipping Oct. 20-30th' but: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262052.msg3340500#msg3340500

I think it's safe to say that Hashfast is already late too and no i'm not hunting posts and i don't want to get into an argue with troll wannabe cypherdoc.

[GodfatherBond]

I wish to give my 2 satoshis, but not exacty sure how network speed converts roughly to difficulty.
Can I calculate 1PH/s = 150 MM difficulty and 10PH/s = 1500 MM difficulty? (Please correct if Im calculating this absolutely wrong?)

[DeathAndTaxes]

I wish to give my 2 satoshis, but not exacty sure how network speed converts roughly to difficulty.
Can I calculate 1PH/s = 150 MM difficulty and 10PH/s = 1500 MM difficulty? (Please correct if Im calculating this absolutely wrong?)

Closer to 1 PH/s = 140 MM difficulty but yes there is a direct linear relationship between difficulty and network hashrate.

[ralree]

So, are we accounting for all the horribly inefficient avalon hardware coming offline in a few months due to power cost?

[600watt]

So, are we accounting for all the horribly inefficient avalon hardware coming offline in a few months due to power cost?

why do you think one would turn off mining gear ? because its irrelevancy. if it is irrelevant, there´s nothing to account.  

[geofflosophy]

So, are we accounting for all the horribly inefficient avalon hardware coming offline in a few months due to power cost?

I don't think Avalon's gear will be enough of the network to make a difference by the time it comes offline.

[Cablez]

So, are we accounting for all the horribly inefficient avalon hardware coming offline in a few months due to power cost?

I don't think Avalon's gear will be enough of the network to make a difference by the time it comes offline.

Just like GPUs when they came off the network.  Didn't see any dip there either.

[maursader]

Hey there DeathAndTaxes, do you suppose we could post some difficulty estimates on the first page of this thread?

[ujka]

I wish to give my 2 satoshis, but not exacty sure how network speed converts roughly to difficulty.
Can I calculate 1PH/s = 150 MM difficulty and 10PH/s = 1500 MM difficulty? (Please correct if Im calculating this absolutely wrong?)

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty#What_network_hash_rate_results_in_a_given_difficulty.3F

Hashrate = Diff * 2^32 / 600