Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[DeathAndTaxes]

Hey there DeathAndTaxes, do you suppose we could post some difficulty estimates on the first page of this thread?

There are difficulty estimates on the first page.  Not sure what you are asking?

[ralree]

So, are we accounting for all the horribly inefficient avalon hardware coming offline in a few months due to power cost?

I don't think Avalon's gear will be enough of the network to make a difference by the time it comes offline.

It's 500TH according to the first page - a decent hunk.  Especially in Europe, power cost is going to kill it (assuming 0.30 USD/kwh, 1.4 billion diff is breakeven on power).  By 3 billion or so, it will also be basically dead in the US.

Of course, all this assumes current pricing - it could change.

500TH will only be a few percent of the total hashrate when it comes offline, but I think it will still be noticeable versus GPU -> ASIC.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Updated to reflect increased HashFast order book (2.24 PH/s excluding IceDrill all batches combined).  Reduced KNC Sept/Oct back to 0.6 PH/s (1500 reported units @ 300 TH/s average - mixed units).   Estimated  KNC Nov batch @ 2 PH/s.

[Puppet]

Is the KNC Sept/Oct number for unshipped items only, or their entire first batch? Because if you read the KnC blog, I get a total of 2385 units already shipped and "one good day" worth of production pending (presumably >400).

[DeathAndTaxes]

Is the KNC Sept/Oct number for unshipped items only, or their entire first batch? Because if you read the KnC blog, I get a total of 2385 units already shipped and "one good day" worth of production pending (presumably >400).

Can you provide a link?  Hmm.  I don't have a link handy but in KNC thread I do recall them indicating ~500 shipped with ~1000 to go.  Maybe that was orders not units.  If the first batch was indeed 2700 units the hashrate should be updated (nearly double).

[Cablez]

Updated to reflect increased HashFast order book (2.24 PH/s excluding IceDrill all batches combined).  Reduced KNC Sept/Oct back to 0.6 PH/s (1500 reported units @ 300 TH/s average - mixed units).   Estimated  KNC Nov batch @ 2 PH/s.

Have I missed where the hashfast orderbook increased?  Can you throw a hapless miner a linky?

[Puppet]

Is the KNC Sept/Oct number for unshipped items only, or their entire first batch? Because if you read the KnC blog, I get a total of 2385 units already shipped and "one good day" worth of production pending (presumably >400).

Can you provide a link?  Hmm.  I don't have a link handy but in KNC thread I do recall them indicating ~500 shipped with ~1000 to go.  Maybe that was orders not units.  If the first batch was indeed 2700 units the hashrate should be updated (nearly double).

https://www.kncminer.com/news?page=2

10/11 "So far the factory has produced about 700 products, while it seems a lot we were hoping for more by now,"

The rest is here:

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Yesterday the factory produced and shipped 350 boxes
Yesterday in the factory we had 455 boxes
The factory produced 280 boxes yesterday.
Ok so after a weekend of producing boards and over 600 boxes shipped in the last few days I have imported the last of the October orders into the production Queue, If the factory have a good day tomorrow they should be able to completely finish the Order queue for all orders that had an October shipment.

its not entirely clear if that 600 figure also includes some of the ones reported earlier, but judging by the numbers and dates, 5 days after the previous shipping update, I guess it does not.

Total is 2,385 + one good day.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Actually unless they didn't ship anything on 10/14 it is probably closer to 3000.

10/24 -
10/23 - "with good day ~400 units?" should be finished
10/22 - ?? "600 boxes shipped in last few days"
10/21 - ??
10/18 - ??
10/17 - 280 boxes shipped
10/16 - 455 boxes shipped
10/15 - 350 boxes shipped
10/14 - ??
10/11 - 700 product total since start

So the "600" probably refers to 18th, 21st, and 2nd.  That leaves 10/14 as a unknown so unless nothing shipped we can guestimate it was probably 200-400 more units.

So 700 + 300 + 350 + 455 + 280 + 600 (3 days) + 400 (one final good day) = ~3085.  I will round to 3000 units. 
Assuming 350 GH per avg unit (mix of Jupiter, Saturn, Mercury) that 1 PH/s.

Thanks Puppet.

[-Redacted-]

Those big red ads all over the place make me very not-interested in spending any time reading that thread.

[rpg]

Cointerra is the only one that is competing on price and hash, and this is their V1. I first upgraded 2m GPU to 20M asicminer just to get my ,03 a day. I'll continue to run them until they produce less then 20 cents a day. Looks like I'll have to upgrade again to 200M just to keep up, but I refuse to pay the ongoing prices, in particular the pre-order ones. One thing is to spend a few hundred just to have a hobby, the other is spending thousands These hardware vendors are crazy, they are sure making a kiling. Want to see if they are going to lower their prices to compete with Cointerra  and the much higher diff. Ebay is already flooded with BFL going at bellow the last of their prices. If the network hash is going to run as much as you forecast this is going to stop being a hobby for many to being a big business. Save your BTC, they will become very rare to mine.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think in time all vendors will cut prices in good time.  Vendors want high prices, customers want low prices eventually the demand will dry up and with it the cashflow.  The only way to get customers to open their wallets will be lower prices.      To be fair Cointerra doesn't have lower prices because they are "nice" it is because they are last.  $10 per GH isn't going to fly with a "late Dec" = industry talk for Jan (or later) delivery.   To move units they have to be cheaper because they certainly aren't going to be earlier.

My guess is when KNC and HF open up January orders either they will be priced aggressively or the market will simply not commit.  

[Paladin69]

Why would you estimate KnC November to be so high?  A lot of people are probably getting refunds.  It would be the smart thing to do while KnC allows it.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Why would you estimate KnC November to be so high?  A lot of people are probably getting refunds.

Based on probable die size and wafer batch size.  If KNC gets too many refunds they will lower prices to sell more units.   The general version of this idea is that once chips are ordered (not by customers but by company from the foundry) it is very unlikely they won't end up hashing eventually.  Anecdotally I haven't seen much chatter on large number of refunds requests yet. Denial is a powerful thing.

Still the purpose of the list is not to be the "end all be all" official number but a starting point.  If you think the KNC Nov batch will be smaller then adjust the total accordingly.  Still the network is getting so large that even if KNC batch was half that size we are still probably looking at 11 to 13 PH/s by end of year.

[btc_uzr]

10days ago there had been more than 2003 Jupiters available, now it's down to 1855 and I assume there are more new orders in general than refunds - but this is just an assumption.

[TheDragonSlayer]

10days ago there had been more than 2003 Jupiters available, now it's down to 1855 and I assume there are more new orders in general than refunds - but this is just an assumption.

Where did you get the info about how many Jupiters were bought?

[btc_uzr]

10days ago there had been more than 2003 Jupiters available, now it's down to 1855 and I assume there are more new orders in general than refunds - but this is just an assumption.

Where did you get the info about how many Jupiters were bought?

The only thing I know for sure is that this amount has been ordered, no clue about whether it has been paid and will be shipped.
Meanwhile refunds might take place, so the amount can be lower than expected.

Add 2000 Jupiters to your cart and click reclaculate, then you will be told that in this very moment
"there are only 1849" left.

[BtcBling]

I think subject like states quite realistic diff estimate. Maybe it goes roughly Jan 2000, Feb 3000 March around 5000 and then increase slows down significaly, but eventually  doubles again to 10.000 MM, but who knows when! Maybe by end of the next summer?

[Lancelot19]

I think this needs to be looked at as much from the expenditure side as the forecast fabrication side.

In essence, a years worth of investment is coming onto the network now and over the next few months.  A lot of new miners (like me) have spent their available cash on pre-orders.  I'm not sure that the market will be there to pay for the production of the ~ 6 PH/s that's been announced by the new ASIC foundries over the past couple of weeks.

Of course, I could be very wrong, and new corporate-scale mining companies with new external capital might appear, but the existing contract 'cloud' hashing services don't seem to me to be capturing that much interest.

So another way to look at the question would be to try and calculate retrospective month-by-month dollar spends, and projecting that curve and factoring in some approximate hashrate-per-dollar forecasts. 

I really hope your pre-orders arrive on time. Every day I hear another company postponing delivery.

[ImI]

I think this needs to be looked at as much from the expenditure side as the forecast fabrication side.

In essence, a years worth of investment is coming onto the network now and over the next few months.  A lot of new miners (like me) have spent their available cash on pre-orders.  I'm not sure that the market will be there to pay for the production of the ~ 6 PH/s that's been announced by the new ASIC foundries over the past couple of weeks.

Of course, I could be very wrong, and new corporate-scale mining companies with new external capital might appear, but the existing contract 'cloud' hashing services don't seem to me to be capturing that much interest.

So another way to look at the question would be to try and calculate retrospective month-by-month dollar spends, and projecting that curve and factoring in some approximate hashrate-per-dollar forecasts. 

I really hope your pre-orders arrive on time. Every day I hear another company postponing delivery.

If all the companies postpone by 1-2 months the roi-calculations stay pretty much the same cause we see then also a postponed diff-increase by 1-2 months.

Diff increase has to be fueled by someone and if those companies have delays then the diff-increase has also delays.

[Dalkore]

D&T:  With all this information in hand (I thank you), what is your prognosis for the state of the mining sector in 6 months?  Which do you see giving way, BTC FX Rate (upward), Hardware Pricing (Way down) or Difficulty finally leveling off or declining?  Basically which of these mechanism will breakdown to possible compensate for the deluge of hardware coming online?

Your thought?



Thanks,
Dalkore