Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[el_rlee]

Avalon2 chips from official Chinese supplier http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?spm=a1z10.1.w6461276-4508018524.1.ebCzQZ&id=18754154224 : 66295 sold in the last 30 days

[integrity42]

Cointerra sold out their March batch, and is now on April 2014.  You should add these to the list.

[Dabs]

Black Arrow also sold out their Feb batch, also on April now.

That's it, I can't buy anything since it seems like difficulty is going to exceed 5 billion by then.

[dspiel]

you might want to consider doing a group buy on someone's whose expecting shipment of hardware and just hold off on doing a larger investment on purchases until the NEXT NEXT gen of hardware is coming.

[Clayce]

Black Arrow also sold out their Feb batch, also on April now.

That's it, I can't buy anything since it seems like difficulty is going to exceed 5 billion by then.

I think BA reopened its Feb batch. I just purchased another X-3 tonight and it said 2/24 shipping, so hope its right..

[Dabs]

Actually, I'm seriously thinking of doing alt coins. Then just trade them for BTC.

[World]

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

For somebody offering products that cost thousands of dollars, they need to spend a little bit more time learning how to type.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Well if I am reading that right it is at least 3.6 PH/s.  1,200 *3 TH/s.  KNC also has been pretty conservative with their estimates so I think it could easily be 4 PH/s or more.

[Epoch]

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Well if I am reading that right it is at least 3.6 PH/s.  1,200 *3 TH/s.  KNC also has been pretty conservative with their estimates so I think it could easily be 4 PH/s or more.

It's actually double that.

1200 units @ $10k for prior customers (sold out) and 1200 units @ $13k for the general public (also sold out). That's where the $28 million dollar number comes from.

That's 2400 units *3 TH/s which is at least 7.2 PH/s and could easily be 8 PH/s or more. I don't believe your OP includes these Neptunes yet.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Well if I am reading that right it is at least 3.6 PH/s.  1,200 *3 TH/s.  KNC also has been pretty conservative with their estimates so I think it could easily be 4 PH/s or more.

It's actually double that.

1200 units @ $10k for prior customers (sold out) and 1200 units @ $13k for the general public (also sold out). That's where the $28 million dollar number comes from.

That's 2400 units *3 TH/s which is at least 7.2 PH/s and could easily be 8 PH/s or more. I don't believe your OP includes these Neptunes yet.

Yes you are right.  And no the OP # don't include these (and many other 2014 runs).  The original purpose was to estimate year end difficulty.  When I get some I time I will try to update it for 2014.  Many of the existing pre-order runs have been completed in full so we can look at current difficulty + undelivered future orders going forward.

[darcimer]

Any chance someone has time to update this thread?

[DeathAndTaxes]

I don't have the time to maintain this.  I am very busy through the end of the year.  Still the original goal was served.  It gave us a ballpark through the end of the year and when people were making insane predictions (<2 PH/s in Dec or >100 PH/s by Dec) it got us within shooting distance of reality.

Honestly it probably makes sense to start a new thread for Q1-2014, link to this and use it a template for projecting pre-orders over the next 3-6 months.  Going beyond that is really just rolling dice.

[de_ixie]

I don't have the time to maintain this.  I am very busy through the end of the year.  Still the original goal was served.  It gave us a ballpark through the end of the year and when people were making insane predictions (<2 PH/s in Dec or >100 PH/s by Dec) it got us within shooting distance of reality.

Honestly it probably makes sense to start a new thread for Q1-2014, link to this and use it a template for projecting pre-orders over the next 3-6 months.  Going beyond that is really just rolling dice.

I will do it - dont bite me

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.0

[Dexter770221]

So, predictions were quite accurate. If Hashfast wasn't late 2 weeks, hashrate certainly would be close to 13PH. It's 10PH now, at the begining of the year it was ~22TH. It's 454 times more. 1EH at the end of the year possible? I don't think so... What about you guys?

[jamesc760]

Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.

[darcimer]

Well, somebody is shipping..  I hope it's HF, otherwise, it's unexpected hash, now over 11Phs

[ImI]

unexpected hash

[Cablez]

November Jupiters as well.

[World]

Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.

HF start shipping 31.12/13 https://twitter.com/HashFast