Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013

[DeathAndTaxes]

Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.

HF start shipping 31.12/13 https://twitter.com/HashFast

I have the 25th unit and it didn't ship.  So HashFast "shipped" a token number of units (potentially as little as 1 BabyJet & 1 Sierra) to say they are "shipping".  My guess is they didn't even ship 3 units but I know for a fact at the absolute most they only shipped units prior to mine which would be a staggering 24 units or ~10 TH/s.  For all practical intents and purposes they haven't shipped anything.

[unbalanced]

I have the 25th unit and it didn't ship.

Still nothing in the mail from HashFast, DeathAndTaxes? I see they tweeted a pretty picture but no further talk of shipping since New Year's Eve.

Does anyone here have (or can any of you point me at) updated projections for Jan or Q1 for overall ASIC shipments?

Or any news from Cointerra? Is there a new thread and I've just missed it?

[RoadStress]

I have the 25th unit and it didn't ship.

Still nothing in the mail from HashFast, DeathAndTaxes? I see they tweeted a pretty picture but no further talk of shipping since New Year's Eve.

Does anyone here have (or can any of you point me at) updated projections for Jan or Q1 for overall ASIC shipments?

Or any news from Cointerra? Is there a new thread and I've just missed it?

They shipped 2(two) units. One to IceDrill https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269216.msg4254717#msg4254717 and one was sent to Luke-Jr for development.

[Dende]

Well, somebody is shipping..  I hope it's HF, otherwise, it's unexpected hash, now over 11Phs

-snip-

looks like 1ph jump in one day, could not be shipped miners. It looks like either some manufacturer is doing 'test' or very deep pocket player turn on his farm.
It is scary to think that there might be mining development happening without any news.

[Dabs]

It is scary to think that there might be mining development happening without any news.

That should be the assumption you make when entering this game. Someone, somewhere, out there is making a farm. Then turning it on. Then it grows as time goes on.

[Dende]

It is scary to think that there might be mining development happening without any news.

That should be the assumption you make when entering this game. Someone, somewhere, out there is making a farm. Then turning it on. Then it grows as time goes on.

Well, if that the case one can forget about getting bitcoin miner at least if profit is concerned. This game is getting riskier each day as more and more interest getting into bitcoin.

It is 13ph now at bitcoinwisdom. Hash train never stops, why bitcoin train does not move like this?
From the chart below, it looks more like hash rocket
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-ever.png

[World]

Update from Cointerra interesting photos
http://cointerra.com/engineering-update-asic-bringup-diagnostic-testing/

[btcspender]

Hey great thread.
Is it still going to be updated with 2014 rollouts?

edit:
I don't have much to add but I think knc have 3x1200 neptune batches @3TH & it was posted that cointerra were doing 5000 unit batches so @ 2TH I would assume, they are already sold out till may. I will try and confirm these numbers if thread is going to be kept up to date.

[ujka]

It is scary to think that there might be mining development happening without any news.

That should be the assumption you make when entering this game. Someone, somewhere, out there is making a farm. Then turning it on. Then it grows as time goes on.

Well, if that the case one can forget about getting bitcoin miner at least if profit is concerned. This game is getting riskier each day as more and more interest getting into bitcoin.

It is 13ph now at bitcoinwisdom. Hash train never stops, why bitcoin train does not move like this?
From the chart below, it looks more like hash rocket

Hash rocket? Hash rocket was from July 2010 to July 2011.

[Dende]

Hash train Choo! Choo!
http://www.coindesk.com/coinseed-5m-investment-bitfury-mining/

[Cablez]

Hash train Choo! Choo!
http://www.coindesk.com/coinseed-5m-investment-bitfury-mining/

OT I know but...

This is a worrying statement: "In the future, a lot of these large merchants are going to be in need of dedicated confirmation power to rapidly transact their sales.”  Does this mean that he envisions his clearing house only accepting transactions from clients and disregarding all others?  What would that do to the general network efficiency?  Would it lead to a situation similar to what breaking net neutrality would do?

You are the brilliant one D&T, am I reading too much into this?

Again sorry for the OT. 

[mightycount]

Thanks for this, D&T. Solid analysis. Just to add my 2 Satoshis, Bitfury himself estimated that he would add at least .5Th/mo when his pilot project succeeded. I guess by now, as everyone realized what a huge success it was, he could have easily tripled or quadrupled his output. Who it goes to, God knows.

[omehenk]

It is scary to think that there might be mining development happening without any news.

That should be the assumption you make when entering this game. Someone, somewhere, out there is making a farm. Then turning it on. Then it grows as time goes on.

I know For sure that Q1 + Q2 there are coming some big farms operational .
As far as i know 8-12 PH total.
We buy chips direct form the suppliers and they have gave us some inside.

H

[samsonn25]

Slow ASIC manufacturers are in trouble if they cant come to market quickly.

Examples are the May batch Cointerra, Black Arrow and KNC.  From now to then the difficulty will go from to 2.6 to 10+++

Im sure part of the difficulty problem are some companies selling to insiders and wholesalers before the general public and mining for weeks before the products actually roll out (In addition to mining for themselves).   Examples BitFury, Asicminer, KNC, BFL.

[samsonn25]

Well it looks like Cointerra will miss.  Hashfast is unknown.  Not sure how much of KNC Nov run is left but I would guess it is mostly complete.  My guestimate was ~2 PH/s and we saw a nice bump from 5 PH/s to > 7 PH/s between 5 DEC and today.   My assumption is most of that is KNC "Nov run".  If Hashfast misses we probably are going to come in under 1.8 PH by end of year.

Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle.  I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.

I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely.  Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess.  January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February.  If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely.  If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple.  Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
  

With those difficulty estimates, what would you say 1TH could mine (per month), by say April-May? If you estimate the diff @ 4billion by April, that should be alittle over 3btc per month. How far off do you think this is??

Could be around .5 BTC mining first 2 weeks of May.

[Ytterbium]

I don't think hashrate growth can continue on the same exponential curve for too much longer.  It'll still increase rapidly, but you won't see a doubling every month for two much longer - in order to keep up the pace for a year we'd need to see the network hit 102 exahashes, the equivalent of 200 million Jupiters.  Hashfast and Cointerra can't even manage to ship a few thousand of their units out in a couple months.

[samsonn25]

Mining will be a thing of the past by July.

[Korbman]

Mining will be a thing of the past by July.

Oh? Replaced by what?

[samsonn25]

It will be controlled by the big companies as it will be to unprofitable for the small people like us who are the last people in the loop to get the newest hardware. Especially with the explosion of cheaper hardware and millions of miners jumping on too late.

Probably replaced by trading the coins themselves.

[Korbman]

It will be controlled by the big companies as it will be to unprofitable for the small people like us who are the last people in the loop to get the newest hardware. Especially with the explosion of cheaper hardware and millions of miners jumping on too late.

Probably replaced by trading the coins themselves.

In other words, mining is *not* a thing of the past, which is what I was trying to get you to point out.

But yes, whenever or wherever there's a chance to make money (even with slim margins), large organizations will slowly migrate over to it, consuming or crushing the small players in the process.