[Jun 2024] Fees are low, think about Consolidating your small inputs now

[Synchronice]

Mempool is still getting full of ordinals transactions. I just checked upcoming 6 blocks and almost 95% of transactions are ordinals transactions. Without them, right now fee would be 1 sat/vByte. By the way, does anyone know why are we 95 blocks behind? I check mempool.space very often and this is the first time I saw such a dramatic number. Or does it happen sometimes here and there? By the way, I expect that fees will go further down because being 95 blocks behind means at some point many blocks will be mined in a row and many transactions will soon get confirmed. That should dramatically drop fees for a moment.

[hosseinimr93]

By the way, does anyone know why are we 95 blocks behind?

That's because the average block in the current difficulty period hasn't been 10 minutes. Since the last difficulty adjustment, blocks have been mined with the average time of around 10.8 minutes. That's due to decrease in total hash power.

By the way, I expect that fees will go further down because being 95 blocks behind means at some point many blocks will be mined in a row and many transactions will soon get confirmed.

Being 95 blocks behind doesn't mean we will have 95 blocks mined fast to compensate for being behind.

Note that the difficulty will be adjusted in ~ 5 days to maintain the average block time of 10 minutes and this doesn't necessarily mean blocks will be mined faster than the current difficulty period.

[LoyceV]

Or does it happen sometimes here and there?

Yes. Hash rate sometimes drops a bit, or sometimes miners are just unlucky.

I just checked upcoming 6 blocks and almost 95% of transactions are ordinals transactions. Without them, right now fee would be 1 sat/vByte.

Without ordinal spam, more regular Bitcoin users and merchants could make more transactions.

Being 95 blocks behind doesn't mean we will have 95 blocks mined fast to compensate for being behind.

Note that the difficulty will be adjusted in ~ 5 days to maintain the average block time of 10 minutes and this doesn't necessarily mean blocks will be mined faster than the current difficulty period.

It's likely to happen though, with lower difficulty blocks should be faster, unless the hash rate drops further.

[stompix]

By the way, does anyone know why are we 95 blocks behind?

Three options:
- 4.5cents per th/s income, end of fiscal quarter maybe some are plugging off
- heatwave in the US and miners shutting down (pool data doesn't quite match)
- bad luck (even 7.5% is not impossible just with variation)

By the way, I expect that fees will go further down because being 95 blocks behind means at some point many blocks will be mined in a row and many transactions will soon get confirmed.

Nope, highly possible we go +120 or at least just as likely as going just +60.

[LoyceV]

I just consolidated many inputs at 7.2 sat/vbyte. I tried 3 months ago at 5.3 sat/vbyte, but it was still unconfirmed.

I manually edited (a copy of) my Electrum wallet, to remove the unconfirmed transaction (search for the txid). After that, I opened the same wallet again without going online, and Electrum let me create a new transaction.

[LoyceV]

Fees are down to 6.05 sat/vbyte minimum.

[igor72]

I just consolidated many inputs at 7.2 sat/vbyte. I tried 3 months ago at 5.3 sat/vbyte, but it was still unconfirmed.

I manually edited (a copy of) my Electrum wallet, to remove the unconfirmed transaction (search for the txid). After that, I opened the same wallet again without going online, and Electrum let me create a new transaction.

You don't need to manually edit the wallet file. Just execute in the console: wallet.adb.remove_transaction("txid") and refresh the wallet interface by pressing F5. This can be done online, everything works.

[Volgastallion]

What a good feel to have for long period of time low fees, i really miss it, i remember the bad and not s long ago time when consolidate some tx was a nightmare thanks to the ordinal boys.

[LoyceV]

You don't need to manually edit the wallet file. Just execute in the console: wallet.adb.remove_transaction("txid") and refresh the wallet interface by pressing F5. This can be done online, everything works.

I tried that, but it didn't work (on my watch-only wallet). And even if it would work, it instantly syncs the unconfirmed transaction from the server again.

[igor72]

I tried that, but it didn't work (on my watch-only wallet). And even if it would work, it instantly syncs the unconfirmed transaction from the server again.

It's weird. I've done this before and right now I've created a watch-only wallet in testnet and successfully replaced my transaction using this method. Btw, I didn't disconnect from the internet, Electrum v4.5.5.

[LoyceV]

What a good feel to have for long period of time low fees, i really miss it, i remember the bad and not s long ago time when consolidate some tx was a nightmare thanks to the ordinal boys.

Look at Mempool Goggles, it's still 80-90% spam:

Barely anyone makes real normal Bitcoin transactions, and that's really bad.

[shield132]

What a good feel to have for long period of time low fees, i really miss it, i remember the bad and not s long ago time when consolidate some tx was a nightmare thanks to the ordinal boys.

Look at Mempool Goggles, it's still 80-90% spam:

Barely anyone makes real normal Bitcoin transactions, and that's really bad.

The majority of transactions are between 1-4 sat/vb range but I can't check on mempool.space how much of them are normal Bitcoin transactions. In the upcoming 7 blocks, majority of transactions are ordinals transactions and another part is UTXO consolidations. I don't know why there is not a high activity of normal Bitcoin transactions, that looks strange to me. Now I think, what if ordinals were really banned? Btw it's good that the transaction fee is 6 sat/vb.

How correct is Coinjoin filter on mempool.space? After all the problems that happened to Bitcoin mixers, I was expecting increase in conjoin transactions but according to mempool.space, people don't coinjoin.

[LoyceV]

I don't know why there is not a high activity of normal Bitcoin transactions

It means less people use Bitcoin as a payment system.

what if ordinals were really banned?

There would be more space for more cheaper transactions, and Bitcoin users wouldn't have to move to shitcoins or even banks for small payments.

[BlackHatCoiner]

My observation is that people are tired with on-chain transactions. These transactions can be slow, especially compared to some altcoins, and their costs can be arbitrarily high, depending on the timing. This environment of prevailing uncertainty regarding transaction fees and confirmation times has discouraged people from using Bitcoin, at least as a medium of exchange.

It's reasonable to avoid adopting a medium of exchange with variable transaction fees, which are dictated by strict supply and demand rules. In my view, this suggests that the blockchain (L1) is inherently unsuitable for comfortable, large-scale retail adoption.

Better days are coming. Do not be discouraged.

[Pmalek]

Today was a good day for consolidations and moving bitcoin between wallets if you were waiting for a decent opportunity to do that. All transactions of 6 sat/vByte were confirmed almost always in the next block. Even transactions of 5 sat/vByte found their way in Bitcoin blocks.

The window still hasn't passed, so if you can, take advantage of the opportunity. There are many unconfirmed transactions in the 4-5 sat/vByte range. Don't use round numbers. Remember, 5.1 sat/vByte or a bit more gives you an advantage over everyone paying exactly 5 sat/vByte and the difference in the total fee you will pay won't be a big one.

[philipma1957]

My observation is that people are tired with on-chain transactions. These transactions can be slow, especially compared to some altcoins, and their costs can be arbitrarily high, depending on the timing. This environment of prevailing uncertainty regarding transaction fees and confirmation times has discouraged people from using Bitcoin, at least as a medium of exchange.

It's reasonable to avoid adopting a medium of exchange with variable transaction fees, which are dictated by strict supply and demand rules. In my view, this suggests that the blockchain (L1) is inherently unsuitable for comfortable, large-scale retail adoption.

Better days are coming. Do not be discouraged.

If they redesign LN to make it easier btc could be used for small payments.

At the moment both Doge and LTC are cheap and easy to use which sets back LN as LN Is Far harder to do.