Bitcoin Forum
December 04, 2016, 10:32:24 PM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: logic question about solo mining  (Read 860 times)
Desolator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392



View Profile
July 14, 2011, 07:08:54 AM
 #1

I'm a programmer so when I read the description of the underlying structure of the sytem, that knowledge helps a lot so I think I get it Tongue but I just wanted to make sure before I do something "stupid" overnight.  It's sort of the same as picking an atom out of a group of radioactive material with a known decay rate, right?  So if I pick the right atom, that could be the one that goes and I'm done REAL fast. So then technically, my computer could randomly come up with a "correct" calculation within seconds if I'm really really really lucky, right?  Cuz I'm feeling lucky enough to solo mine for a few hours if that's the case Tongue  Can anyone verify that or have awesome success stories about it?
1480890744
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480890744

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480890744
Reply with quote  #2

1480890744
Report to moderator
1480890744
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480890744

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480890744
Reply with quote  #2

1480890744
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480890744
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480890744

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480890744
Reply with quote  #2

1480890744
Report to moderator
nmat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 602


View Profile
July 14, 2011, 07:26:27 AM
 #2

Wow... I have seen lots of comparisons, but this is the first one that involves radioactive materials.

But yes, you are right. It's lottery. It's like throwing 100 coins to try to get "heads" in every coin. You can go ahead and try your luck, but I am just going to give you some numbers to think about. Let's say that you have a nice setup at 500 Mhash/second. If you start solo mining with this, you have a 50% chance of having found a block after 107 days (4 months) and 95% chance after 465 days (September 2012). The probabilities of finding it overnight are... well... underflow. Tongue

If you join a pool, you can also be really really lucky and find the block before anyone else submits shares and you get to keep all the 50 coins. The probabilities of this are also ridiculously small.
Desolator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392



View Profile
July 14, 2011, 08:24:20 AM
 #3

Really?  The one most random yet most predictable (as a whole) process in the universe is radioactive decay and this is just like it and you didn't immediately think "OMG radioactive decay!" like 5 seconds into the explanation of bitcoin?  I can't be the only one geeky enough to have thought that  Grin  But I might have been the only one with all that going on while simultaneously watching Star Trek Voyager on Netflix on monitor 2 (true story).

Let's say that you have a nice setup at 500 Mhash/second.

I do not Tongue rofl.  It's a whopping CUDA based 38.2-40.0 MH/s on my GTS450.

So what you're saying about my odds of finding it overnight, and I might be reading into this a little, is I should instead take out my graphics card and use the corner of it to scratch some scratch off lottery tickets instead cuz the return would likely be better Cheesy
nmat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 602


View Profile
July 14, 2011, 02:30:58 PM
 #4

I do not Tongue rofl.  It's a whopping CUDA based 38.2-40.0 MH/s on my GTS450.

So what you're saying about my odds of finding it overnight, and I might be reading into this a little, is I should instead take out my graphics card and use the corner of it to scratch some scratch off lottery tickets instead cuz the return would likely be better Cheesy

Lottery tickets are far better... Wink There are some nice calculators around (I don't have the link right now, but check the wiki) that you can use to find you these probabilities and how many bitcoins/day will you make on average with your setup.
Desolator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392



View Profile
July 14, 2011, 04:10:48 PM
 #5

I ran one and it's not pretty Sad even the per month one is awful.  I have a spare comp that I got for dirt cheap.  It's an e-machines AM2 system with an X2 and a PCI-E slot.  If that won't hold back the graphics card too much, I can throw a popular AMD card in there for like $110 and do a lot better for a lot less money Tongue and it resides on my computer fixing bench in my basement where it's nice and cool.
BrimStone
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 71



View Profile WWW
July 14, 2011, 04:16:03 PM
 #6

I started with a solo rig but quickly realized the math was against me.  The pooling method works better because you can spread the risk (costs) and increase the possibility of payouts.

Any hardware, power, and pool costs should also be taken into consideration.  It costs money to make money but sometimes you can spend many $$$$ to make $.

BitCoin Addr: 1GvcrpJmvC9wsdAndVnMFLc7dD9Yeo1ggU
shane_kerr
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 5


View Profile
July 14, 2011, 07:17:05 PM
 #7

According to Bitcoin Charts:

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

There are 11.7 TH/sec being crunched right now. Consider your chances against that.


Go with pooled mining. Look at the rates that the big pools are at right now:

https://deepbit.net/
4.4 TH/sec

https://www.btcguild.com/index.php
2.3 TH/sec

http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/
2.4 TH/sec

The top 3 have a significant percentage of the processing load. Any of these will give quite consistent payout.
deepceleron
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470



View Profile WWW
July 14, 2011, 08:27:57 PM
 #8

I'm a programmer so when I read the description of the underlying structure of the sytem, that knowledge helps a lot so I think I get it Tongue but I just wanted to make sure before I do something "stupid" overnight.  It's sort of the same as picking an atom out of a group of radioactive material with a known decay rate, right?  So if I pick the right atom, that could be the one that goes and I'm done REAL fast. So then technically, my computer could randomly come up with a "correct" calculation within seconds if I'm really really really lucky, right?  Cuz I'm feeling lucky enough to solo mine for a few hours if that's the case Tongue  Can anyone verify that or have awesome success stories about it?

It's just like that, except the cat is 99.9999999999% dead.

Desolator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 05:47:23 AM
 #9

I never did buy into that quantum state until it's witnessed crap.  There is no witnessing, that's a human intellectual idea with no grounds in physics.

Here's a random question though.  If I'm in a pool, they know when they generate a block and split out the 50-ish bitcoins accordingly among who did what portion of the work and they know who to pay because I gave them my wallet address.  They handle all the coin distribution but if I'm soloing, how does the network know my wallet address to give the 50 coins to?  I pointed my miner at my coin/wallet program but unless it found and is using my actual wallet file without actually telling me, it doesn't really know who to send the payment to, right?
FractalUniverse
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 136



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 06:14:40 AM
 #10


Let's say that you have a nice setup at 500 Mhash/second.

I do not Tongue rofl.  It's a whopping CUDA based 38.2-40.0 MH/s on my GTS450.

So what you're saying about my odds of finding it overnight, and I might be reading into this a little, is I should instead take out my graphics card and use the corner of it to scratch some scratch off lottery tickets instead cuz the return would likely be better Cheesy

nothing is impossible our pool just found a block after submitting    27244 shares  Grin winning lotery ticket i guess, unlikely to be repeated soon

BitFinex.com Leveraged BTC and LTC trading. Fee discount code: wm8ibCC9Ve
BEST bitcoin mining pool: https://bitcoin.triplemining.com
my ORBitcoin address: oRXnDBdL75vuTmWi45UX7GiscwaDmSRgLS
Desolator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 07:08:23 AM
 #11

Well given the amount of shares my miner claims there were over the last few hours, I guarantee I could have scratched a scratch off with my card faster than that rofl.  What is a "share" btw?  Is that like everyone saying "I processed this many but didn't complete it yet" so the pool can say "well at least you tried" and then modify the distribution numbers for when coins are received.
And while we're at it, what's a "confirmation" and what is it confirming and why do we need 120 of them on BTCG?
BrimStone
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 71



View Profile WWW
July 16, 2011, 03:08:47 PM
 #12

I have been in BTC Guild for only a short time but I have been pretty pleased with the results.

My current payout has been: 0.06722862 and I have a very small rig right now.

BitCoin Addr: 1GvcrpJmvC9wsdAndVnMFLc7dD9Yeo1ggU
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!