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Desolator (OP)
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July 14, 2011, 07:08:54 AM |
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I'm a programmer so when I read the description of the underlying structure of the sytem, that knowledge helps a lot so I think I get it  but I just wanted to make sure before I do something "stupid" overnight. It's sort of the same as picking an atom out of a group of radioactive material with a known decay rate, right? So if I pick the right atom, that could be the one that goes and I'm done REAL fast. So then technically, my computer could randomly come up with a "correct" calculation within seconds if I'm really really really lucky, right? Cuz I'm feeling lucky enough to solo mine for a few hours if that's the case Can anyone verify that or have awesome success stories about it? |
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nmat
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July 14, 2011, 07:26:27 AM |
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Wow... I have seen lots of comparisons, but this is the first one that involves radioactive materials. But yes, you are right. It's lottery. It's like throwing 100 coins to try to get "heads" in every coin. You can go ahead and try your luck, but I am just going to give you some numbers to think about. Let's say that you have a nice setup at 500 Mhash/second. If you start solo mining with this, you have a 50% chance of having found a block after 107 days (4 months) and 95% chance after 465 days (September 2012). The probabilities of finding it overnight are... well... underflow. If you join a pool, you can also be really really lucky and find the block before anyone else submits shares and you get to keep all the 50 coins. The probabilities of this are also ridiculously small. |
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Desolator (OP)
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July 14, 2011, 08:24:20 AM |
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Really? The one most random yet most predictable (as a whole) process in the universe is radioactive decay and this is just like it and you didn't immediately think "OMG radioactive decay!" like 5 seconds into the explanation of bitcoin? I can't be the only one geeky enough to have thought that  But I might have been the only one with all that going on while simultaneously watching Star Trek Voyager on Netflix on monitor 2 (true story). Let's say that you have a nice setup at 500 Mhash/second.
I do not rofl. It's a whopping CUDA based 38.2-40.0 MH/s on my GTS450. So what you're saying about my odds of finding it overnight, and I might be reading into this a little, is I should instead take out my graphics card and use the corner of it to scratch some scratch off lottery tickets instead cuz the return would likely be better  |
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nmat
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July 14, 2011, 02:30:58 PM |
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I do not rofl. It's a whopping CUDA based 38.2-40.0 MH/s on my GTS450. So what you're saying about my odds of finding it overnight, and I might be reading into this a little, is I should instead take out my graphics card and use the corner of it to scratch some scratch off lottery tickets instead cuz the return would likely be better Lottery tickets are far better...  There are some nice calculators around (I don't have the link right now, but check the wiki) that you can use to find you these probabilities and how many bitcoins/day will you make on average with your setup. |
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Desolator (OP)
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July 14, 2011, 04:10:48 PM |
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I ran one and it's not pretty  even the per month one is awful. I have a spare comp that I got for dirt cheap. It's an e-machines AM2 system with an X2 and a PCI-E slot. If that won't hold back the graphics card too much, I can throw a popular AMD card in there for like $110 and do a lot better for a lot less money and it resides on my computer fixing bench in my basement where it's nice and cool. |
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BrimStone
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July 14, 2011, 04:16:03 PM |
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I started with a solo rig but quickly realized the math was against me. The pooling method works better because you can spread the risk (costs) and increase the possibility of payouts.
Any hardware, power, and pool costs should also be taken into consideration. It costs money to make money but sometimes you can spend many $$$$ to make $.
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BitCoin Addr: 1GvcrpJmvC9wsdAndVnMFLc7dD9Yeo1ggU
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deepceleron
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1025
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July 14, 2011, 08:27:57 PM |
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I'm a programmer so when I read the description of the underlying structure of the sytem, that knowledge helps a lot so I think I get it but I just wanted to make sure before I do something "stupid" overnight. It's sort of the same as picking an atom out of a group of radioactive material with a known decay rate, right? So if I pick the right atom, that could be the one that goes and I'm done REAL fast. So then technically, my computer could randomly come up with a "correct" calculation within seconds if I'm really really really lucky, right? Cuz I'm feeling lucky enough to solo mine for a few hours if that's the case Can anyone verify that or have awesome success stories about it? It's just like that, except the cat is 99.9999999999% dead. |
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Desolator (OP)
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July 15, 2011, 05:47:23 AM |
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I never did buy into that quantum state until it's witnessed crap. There is no witnessing, that's a human intellectual idea with no grounds in physics.
Here's a random question though. If I'm in a pool, they know when they generate a block and split out the 50-ish bitcoins accordingly among who did what portion of the work and they know who to pay because I gave them my wallet address. They handle all the coin distribution but if I'm soloing, how does the network know my wallet address to give the 50 coins to? I pointed my miner at my coin/wallet program but unless it found and is using my actual wallet file without actually telling me, it doesn't really know who to send the payment to, right?
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FractalUniverse
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July 15, 2011, 06:14:40 AM |
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Let's say that you have a nice setup at 500 Mhash/second.
I do not rofl. It's a whopping CUDA based 38.2-40.0 MH/s on my GTS450. So what you're saying about my odds of finding it overnight, and I might be reading into this a little, is I should instead take out my graphics card and use the corner of it to scratch some scratch off lottery tickets instead cuz the return would likely be better nothing is impossible our pool just found a block after submitting 27244 shares winning lotery ticket i guess, unlikely to be repeated soon |
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Desolator (OP)
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July 15, 2011, 07:08:23 AM
Last edit: July 15, 2011, 08:46:49 AM by Desolator |
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Well given the amount of shares my miner claims there were over the last few hours, I guarantee I could have scratched a scratch off with my card faster than that rofl. What is a "share" btw? Is that like everyone saying "I processed this many but didn't complete it yet" so the pool can say "well at least you tried" and then modify the distribution numbers for when coins are received.
And while we're at it, what's a "confirmation" and what is it confirming and why do we need 120 of them on BTCG?
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BrimStone
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July 16, 2011, 03:08:47 PM |
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I have been in BTC Guild for only a short time but I have been pretty pleased with the results.
My current payout has been: 0.06722862 and I have a very small rig right now.
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BitCoin Addr: 1GvcrpJmvC9wsdAndVnMFLc7dD9Yeo1ggU
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