Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000.

[Puppet]

Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..

"Last 10   10/10/2013 12:04   262741-262751   582 403 844   x3.08"

10 blocks is fairly meaningless, Ive seen it go anywhere from x0.3 to x5.

If you look at 120 blocks, there is still quite some variance, but at least the numbers mean something:
Last 120   09/10/2013 22:04   262631-262751   260 578 393   x1.38

If you add to that the upward trend, well 300 might get difficult, but 270-280M might still be possible.

[1715145940]

1715145940

[Puppet]

If you look at 120 blocks, there is still quite some variance, but at least the numbers mean something:
Last 120   09/10/2013 22:04   262631-262751   260 578 393   x1.38

Picking up some serious speed (or luck) now.

Last 120   10/10/2013 04:17   262680-262800   284 966 752   x1.51

Who knows, if this keeps up, that 300M may not be out of reach after all.

[Dabs]

Starting at 300 million and having 50% increase per month gives me these estimates for next year:

2014 Jan  1.013 billion
2014 Feb  1.519 billion
2014 Mar  2.278 billion
2014 Apr  3.417 billion
2014 May  5.126 billion
2014 Jun  7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

90% is only likely for the next few months, but sustained for an entire year is simply too much. 50% starting now might be underestimating the immediate future, but seems likely is going to closely follow this pattern for several months.

So, it's a billion by January. Only profitable for the next generation of ASIC devices that cost below $3 per GH/s.

[cowandtea]

Starting at 300 million and having 50% increase per month gives me these estimates for next year:

2014 Jan  1.013 billion
2014 Feb  1.519 billion
2014 Mar  2.278 billion
2014 Apr  3.417 billion
2014 May  5.126 billion
2014 Jun  7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

90% is only likely for the next few months, but sustained for an entire year is simply too much. 50% starting now might be underestimating the immediate future, but seems likely is going to closely follow this pattern for several months.

So, it's a billion by January. Only profitable for the next generation of ASIC devices that cost below $3 per GH/s.

I predicted a slow down in increment instead. Reason cause the electricity cost is base on per GH/s.

[Miz4r]

Starting at 300 million and having 50% increase per month gives me these estimates for next year:

2014 Jan  1.013 billion
2014 Feb  1.519 billion
2014 Mar  2.278 billion
2014 Apr  3.417 billion
2014 May  5.126 billion
2014 Jun  7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

90% is only likely for the next few months, but sustained for an entire year is simply too much. 50% starting now might be underestimating the immediate future, but seems likely is going to closely follow this pattern for several months.

So, it's a billion by January. Only profitable for the next generation of ASIC devices that cost below $3 per GH/s.

Your estimates until April or May 2014 could very well be accurate, but the exponential growth can't go on forever and will have to level off at some point. I'd say we'll be around 60-70 PH/s in December 2014, that would be around 9 billion difficulty. That's around the point when the best ASICs on the market right now will no longer be able to mine more BTC than they cost in electricity.

[ScaryHash]

Most of the ASIC buying has already been done. Now people are waiting for delivery.

Depends on what has been delivered and what will be delivered in the next 1.5-2 weeks.

My guess is 250ish, and next one will be 400 mil beginning of November.

 

[Puppet]

Your estimates until April or May 2014 could very well be accurate, but the exponential growth can't go on forever and will have to level off at some point. I'd say we'll be around 60-70 PH/s in December 2014, that would be around 9 billion difficulty. That's around the point when the best ASICs on the market right now will no longer be able to mine more BTC than they cost in electricity.

What numbers do you use to get that 60-70PH figure? Keep in mind electricity is dirt cheap in some places in the US, Russia and China and also keeping in mind performance projections of current 28nm asics are skewed towards performance per dollar, not so much power efficiency. As illustration, from bitmine.ch specs this:

Power usage of 0.35 W/GH in low power, 0.6 W/GH in nominal and 1 W/GH in Turbo mode


https://bitmine.ch/?page_id=863

IMO we will end up well above 100PH, possibly as much as 3-400PH at todays BTC exchange rate.

The point that exponential growth cant continue forever is of course valid, and its very difficult to predict how fast these companies will be able to produce and deploy. If BFL is taken as benchmark, it will take a few decades, but if you read that Hashfast has contracted  Ciara (https://hashfast.com/big-news-hashfast-signs-exclusive-deal-with-ciara-technologies/) and they are rumored to have the ability to crank out >1000 units per day (!), and keeping in mind Hashfast is just one of many, we may get their sooner than you'd think.

[Puppet]

Most of the ASIC buying has already been done. Now people are waiting for delivery.

Depends on what has been delivered and what will be delivered in the next 1.5-2 weeks.

My guess is 250ish, and next one will be 400 mil beginning of November.

 

We are only halfway through this difficulty interval and already it points towards ~250M. KnC seems to have found a firmware solution for their machines, if they resume production and shipment, the next 6-7 days might add a fair bit on top that.

Also, Im quite sure the difficulty change after that, will still happen this month. I dont expect HF to ship anything before then, so I think we will end october around 350M, maybe a bit more if asicminer delivers. End of November, all bets are off.

[ScaryHash]

You might be right also.

All that means is machines that have not shipped, that were ordered months ago, are not worth the money people spent on them.

Now, it's not all about ROI, at least for some people. I care about securing the network also, but I'd like to make a little on the side too. Heh. 

[cowandtea]

The difficulty need to slow down, its going too fast..

[Puppet]

The difficulty need to slow down, its going too fast..

lol. In all likelihood, its only going to speed up over the next ~6 months. The avalanche of 28nm products from countless vendors has barely even started.

[Puppet]

Heating up quite a bit now.

Last 120   12/10/2013 10:45   263112-263232   300 944 020   x1.59
Last 10   12/10/2013 22:44   263222-263232   519 052 786   x2.74
Next   16/10/2013 17:54   264096   261 500 120   x1.38

Blockchain shows hashrate just a hair under 2PH

[nwfella]

Looking like 2 months from now we will be looking back and remembering with fondness when total network hashrate was still in the single digit PHashes.

[Puppet]

Looking like 2 months from now we will be looking back and remembering with fondness when total network hashrate was still in the single digit PHashes.

I remember getting upset over breaking 1M difficulty. Now it looks like we may hit 1 billion this year.

[niothor]

Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..

"Last 10   10/10/2013 12:04   262741-262751   582 403 844   x3.08"

10 blocks is fairly meaningless, Ive seen it go anywhere from x0.3 to x5.

If you look at 120 blocks, there is still quite some variance, but at least the numbers mean something:
Last 120   09/10/2013 22:04   262631-262751   260 578 393   x1.38

If you add to that the upward trend, well 300 might get difficult, but 270-280M might still be possible.

I know , that's why i stated it 's just for 10 blocks , but still amazing , just like this one:

Last 10   13/10/2013 10:02   263321-263331   921 076 639   x4.87

[Puppet]

yeah just saw that one too. There was a time I was refreshing btc exchange pages all day, now Im refreshing hashrate pages all day. I need a life lol.

[fattypig]

based on http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Current Diffculty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 260,433,451

Looks like the increment is about 37% this time and that really sux. Looks like most miner ganna lose out.

[polarhei]

How accurate would you say that is?

Past predictions:
Guess   Actual
145m - 148m
170m - 189m
215m - N/A

I think should be +/- 45% to ensure as more asic in the network. The higher difficult it should be.


I think the next level should be 230M.

[baritus]

Let's just say there is too much craziness to predict. 

[GodHatesFigs]

Just use www.allchains.info - it has the most reliable method.

Currently predicts 243,000,000 for next adjustment.