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greyhawk
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September 30, 2013, 09:24:28 AM |
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My guess: 245MM. Do I get a cake if i got it right?  Yes. But you're not going to be right. Also the cake is a lie. |
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"In a nutshell, the network works like a distributed
timestamp server, stamping the first transaction to spend a coin. It
takes advantage of the nature of information being easy to spread but
hard to stifle." -- Satoshi
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Nemo1024
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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September 30, 2013, 11:06:56 AM |
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My guess: 245MM. Do I get a cake if i got it right? Yes. But you're not going to be right. Also the cake is a lie. Yep... You'll be baked, and then there'll be cake. |
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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Puppet
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 02, 2013, 07:46:46 AM |
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Network speed increase seems to be easing a bit temporarily. Looks like the next D increase may be relatively minor, all things considered:  Of course that will be the proverbial calm before the storm if KnC starts shipping in volume this week. |
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arlekyn13
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October 02, 2013, 03:19:17 PM |
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So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low?  |
1CmrswU7JYpi9WNC8EHWCV3aam1FJsW2Zu - to show appreciation for my work
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Nemo1024
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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October 02, 2013, 03:45:35 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2013, 09:10:42 PM by Nemo1024 |
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So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? That is so. Better make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on... |
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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MoneyMorpheus
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October 02, 2013, 03:49:08 PM |
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So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on... You are not considering that a lot of the orders where placed by international buyers and may not be able to be turned on before the next difficult increase. |
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Puppet
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 02, 2013, 03:49:24 PM |
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So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on... Not a chance. It doesnt look like more than a few dozen of them will be turned on this week. The rest will only arrive next week and then we are so close to the next difficulty that even bringing online a petahash wont make much difference. Nah, this upcoming D change wont be significant. The next one is what Im looking forward to. |
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j68r
Member
Offline
Activity: 94
Merit: 10
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October 02, 2013, 05:17:08 PM |
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That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...
KnC video I watched showed their Jupiter running on cgminer with 19.6% hw error rate. Probably 20% plus with rejected. Don't believe all the marketing hype, still impressive though but no ROI. |
1Bjgt6S6Mk3GsAPM4Mx4RGS4zYhoFURyCZ
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BeepBeep2
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October 02, 2013, 08:56:56 PM |
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That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...
KnC video I watched showed their Jupiter running on cgminer with 19.6% hw error rate. Probably 20% plus with rejected. Don't believe all the marketing hype, still impressive though but no ROI. At 570 GH/s... I'm sure around 500 GH/s HW Error will be low. KnC didn't break their promises, their chips were able to do even a little more than they projected, which was good. |
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cowandtea
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October 07, 2013, 07:17:44 AM |
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Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!
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Buffer Overflow
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1015
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October 07, 2013, 07:38:51 AM |
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Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!
Mining is designed to protect the network, not make you profit. |
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Kluge
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1015
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October 07, 2013, 10:45:18 AM |
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Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!
Mining is designed to protect the network, not make you profit. Profit is designed to protect mining. |
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fattypig
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October 07, 2013, 01:51:41 PM |
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Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!
I bet everyone is thinking the same thing as you do  |
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lucasjkr
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October 07, 2013, 02:28:45 PM |
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Crazy.
When I recieved my order from BFL, the total hashrate at bitminter was on the order of 5.5 TH. Today? 82 TH. And if i'm reading this right, the difficulty back then was right around 26 million? All I can say is that I am glad I sold the moment it got here!
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baritus (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 966
Merit: 1052
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October 08, 2013, 05:12:08 PM |
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I'm guessing 215m is the next difficulty, even though I was completely off last time.. |
Digitalcoin - Sha256, Scrypt, x11 Mining - Multi-algorithm & One Click Masternodes - Founded in 2013
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P_Shep
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1795
Merit: 1198
This is not OK.
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October 08, 2013, 08:30:13 PM |
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242M is my guess.
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Puppet
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 08, 2013, 08:42:36 PM |
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Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.
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Minor Miner
Legendary
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Activity: 2282
Merit: 1012
Be A Digital Miner
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October 08, 2013, 08:53:58 PM |
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Good job of totally missing the obvious. They will lower prices. A 400GH/s hashfast asic costs ~$30 to produce in volume.
Can you walk through the math you are so adamantly asserting is "possible" in volume? You are claiming that you can get to 7.5 cents per GH/s? Just give me a few numbers so I know that you are correct. Wafer cost, chips per wafer, packaging, boards etc. Power Supplies are more than per GH/s than your number all by themselves. |
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Puppet
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 08, 2013, 10:39:59 PM |
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Good job of totally missing the obvious. They will lower prices. A 400GH/s hashfast asic costs ~$30 to produce in volume.
Can you walk through the math you are so adamantly asserting is "possible" in volume? You are claiming that you can get to 7.5 cents per GH/s? Just give me a few numbers so I know that you are correct. $4000 per processed 300mm wafer, 177 candidates with hashfast die size (324mm²) that is $22.5 per candidate in silicon cost. Subtract 15% yield, a few dollar per chip for packaging and testing and $30 is about right. Note that $4000 was volume price at TSMC for 28nm over a year ago, its quite possible its cheaper now. Wafer cost, chips per wafer, packaging, boards etc. Power Supplies are more than per GH/s than your number all by themselves. Im only talking about the asic. Feel free to make your own estimate of costs for the PCBs and PSUs. For reference, PCBs of highend videocards is on the order of $8, and those are very complex PCBs with up to 12 layers and very timing critical due to the highspeed ram etc. |
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Puppet
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 09, 2013, 10:26:16 AM |
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Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.
Taking that back. Of course its hard to say how much of the current hashrate spike is statistical noise, how much KnC, Bitfury or any of the other players, but the game is on it seems: Last 120 08/10/2013 20:47 262437-262557 279 863 848 x1.48 Last 10 09/10/2013 09:13 262547-262557 288 979 007 x1.53 Next 16/10/2013 15:48 264096 263 789 841 x1.39 If its not a statistical fluke, its bound to go up further considerably as KnC is no where near done shipping/deploying. Will we see 300M difficulty the next round? I think we may. |
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