Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000.

[P_Shep]

Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.

Taking that back. Of course its hard to say how much of the current hashrate spike is statistical noise, how much KnC, Bitfury or any of the other players, but the game is on it seems:

Last 120   08/10/2013 20:47   262437-262557   279 863 848   x1.48
Last 10   09/10/2013 09:13   262547-262557   288 979 007   x1.53
Next   16/10/2013 15:48   264096   263 789 841   x1.39

If its not a statistical fluke, its bound to go up further considerably as KnC is no where near done shipping/deploying. Will we see 300M difficulty the next round? I think we may.

Man, yeah that's one hell of a jump!

[1715159741]

1715159741

[1715159741]

1715159741

[1715159741]

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[1715159741]

1715159741

[Puppet]

Just saw this on reddit:
http://www.futureblock.com/

Lets you bet on the network hashrate increase. pretty neat idea, and afaict, well executed.
I just wish the criterion was the unambigious difficulty instead of a guestimated network hashrate

[abdulmad]

I believe alt coins will be feeling the heat as well when this happens.

[hulk]

Based on this website. Its much higher...

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367

[Puppet]

Based on this website. Its much higher...

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367

Its not the website thats so different, its just the time you are looking at it. Right now dot-bit predicts even more, 289M (x1.53)

But this estimate is based on a too short sample, simple luck / variance plays a very big role, so its too early to say we will really see such a jump. I wouldnt rule it out though, like I said 300M may be possible.

[hulk]

Based on this website. Its much higher...

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367

Its not the website thats so different, its just the time you are looking at it. Right now dot-bit predicts even more, 289M (x1.53)

But this estimate is based on a too short sample, simple luck / variance plays a very big role, so its too early to say we will really see such a jump. I wouldnt rule it out though, like I said 300M may be possible.

You are right, I looked at the same website and the estimate difficulty jumps to even higher.

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 288,762,149

Oh man, I do hope its much lower..

[viriat0]

very high!! 

[P_Shep]

Dropped back to where it was.
Maybe luck, maybe testing!

[smoothie]

New guess is 231,000,000

[niothor]

Bitcoin difficulty

Time   Block   Difficulty   Ratio
Last change   06/10/2013 14:42   262080   189 281 249   x1.17
Last 120   09/10/2013 09:13   262546-262666   223 942 585   x1.18
Last 10   10/10/2013 01:27   262656-262666   475 183 053   x2.51
Next   18/10/2013 11:34   264096   223 259 328   x1.18

now this is going to be funny

[hulk]

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 223,259,328

Sorry guys, but im not really good with maths. How come the difficulty swing so much up and down. I understand some people stop their mining at night and so on but this huge swing?

[Puppet]

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 223,259,328

Sorry guys, but im not really good with maths. How come the difficulty swing so much up and down. I understand some people stop their mining at night and so on but this huge swing?

You can not measure the hashrate. All you can measure is how long it takes to find blocks, and from that estimate the hashrate (and future difficulty). Blocks finding is heavily subjected to luck, so you need a lot of blocks to get a reasonable estimate. Just have a look at these charts to get an idea:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

[Miz4r]

New guess is 231,000,000

Are you crazy or just bad at math and projections? Difficulty will be way above 240M at the next jump and probably also over 250M. This is a blatant certainty, you can bet on it.

[Kluge]

Kludgey method: Difficulty can be roughly determined by hashpower at the mid-way point of the difficulty change window (7D in a stagnant mining network) IF it isn't an anomaly (that is, hashpower increase remains fairly linear). We're roughly 4.85 days in and if this were the halfway point, the difficulty could be projected @ 240M. 7/4.85=~1.4433 (estimated %increase from current point to 7D point). 1.4433*(240-189.28[<-Cur. diff.])= 73.204 (estimated difficulty increase).

Projected difficulty: 262.484M

ETA: Nope, all wrong. Forgot to factor in that this isn't a stagnant network, and diff change window <14D. Hrm. Without maffing it out, assuming 11.5D window... 5.75D ends up being the halfway point. 5.75/4.85=~1.185567. 1.185567*(240-189.28)=60.13195824.

Projected difficulty: ~249.412M. In reality, because hashpower increases exponentially, not linearly (right now), an adjusted projection would be ~251-253M. There's a lot of corner-cutting going on here, though.

[Nemo1024]

223,439,792 in 8 days.

KnC is not shipping as fast as expected, so the next diff jump might not be that huge.

[naRky]

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

[Puppet]

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)?
You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise.

We are already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month

[naRky]

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)?
You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise.

We already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month

HashFast  - already stated that in BEST case scenario shipping starts first week of november.

ASICminer - dont know

Bitfury - few TH

BFL - few TH (with they babies 5,25,50)

EDIT: im betting 220 for next jump not the end of the month!

[Puppet]

220M would mean 1.57PH. Were are already at ~1.7PH and growing. Maybe if all those KnCs catch fire and we have a terrible streak of bad luck,  we could get down to 220.  But Im betting anything you want against that.

[niothor]

Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..

"Last 10   10/10/2013 12:04   262741-262751   582 403 844   x3.08"