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Author Topic: Trading is gambling after all  (Read 636 times)
removebeforeflight
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March 07, 2018, 12:35:19 PM
 #101

May be you call as gambling but that is happening in fiat currency for a decade as share market, would you call that as gambling though? Trading is just like a market of any product where seller opts for a price and if we are okay with the price we could buy or sell to the seller back.

Gambling is like investing your small money first for a minimal profit and part by part you invest what you have or more than that losing all your money and winning only depends on luck but trading profit depends upon our skills and little bit of luck.
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March 07, 2018, 01:15:48 PM
 #102

That may be true because even how good a trader you are, there will really be a time where you earn almost nothing. Trading is quite the risk since you are trading with a very risky digital currencies because of its market price volatility. You may bought a crypto at a very low price today and only realized that it will pump after a couple of years.

Lol. The last statement really got me laughing, but with the way the cryptocurrency market is presently, the level of FOMO and new traders, it is always very easy for us to see those who would prefer to join a moving train, hence in a couple of months for long term holding, you may be in profit.

I feel you though, and the thing is that we cannot know what to expect from any market and sometimes even TA can still fail us, but in the long run, it is better than just predicting and expecting only luck (which is the real gambling) to take its course as trading requires skills to get the best of it.

Everything generally about life is gambling since we cannot predict the next outcome and we are only trying our best to get it right. For instance, a surgeon performing an operation even though a good one, may not know what the outcome would be for the patient after the operation, lawyers may not know whether he or she will end up winning a case and so on with other professions, but at the end, we always hope that with our skills, we can at least get it right most of the time.

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March 07, 2018, 01:47:06 PM
 #103

Of course it is. No matter how skilled trader you are, (or poker player/or sports expert), you might lose horribly in the short to mid term. No matter how well prepared you are, how much research you do, or good strategy you have, it is still possible the market (cards/result) go the other way and wipe you out. There's an element of randomness and variables you can't control or predict.
Technical analysis and fundamental are just a distraction in these wild markets, shady exchanges, market manipulations and inside practices are not predictable and eventually destroy even the best traders.
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March 08, 2018, 06:39:39 AM
 #104

Yes most especially if you don't really know well about the movement of every cryptocurrencies you have in portfolio or shall we say you are not regularly following the cryptomarket and missed an opportunity to buy a cheaper crypto or to sell it at a higher price. It's like really gambling and it has also two results of "WINNING" or "LOSING".
You cannot even know the movement of any coin, you can only use some analysis and some of the technical indicators to make those decisions and get the best of the trend change every time.

It is gambling when all you do is just capitalize on luck and expect to just buy anywhere and sell anywhere without using some good analysis to your advantage to make good decisions. Trading is more than just gambling your position in the market.


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March 08, 2018, 07:40:58 AM
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 #105

Yes trading is gamble because when money is involved in a short term profit is visible it means gamble, but it plays in a different way also, but since trading is about buying and selling therefore it is more on business activity, that needs a hard effort inorder to make profit,  but then after all it is still considered as gamble because money is the main character of the play😊
But anyway if seen from the basic of the effort, it's really not a gamble, it's more dependent on the expertise in analyzing the prices over time as well as choosing the right coins to be used as a trading effort. This is not a game such as in a gambling, which's only dependent on lucky (not strategy), and I think the luckies in trading depends on expertise on the price analys, it's different with a gambling that's just dependent on the game which's really randomly and testing our luckies.
Right,  trading is also not like gambling for me because of the mere fact that you can control how much profit you earned by using analysis before making any decisions. In trading,  you can make sure that there is a profit unlike in gambling where there is totally no assurance and  just luck.  Some are saying that mathematics  can be used to win gambling games but I think that it was very imaginative.
I do not think that trading is the same as gambling, obviously it's very different. In gambling we spend money to bet. while in trade, the capital we spend is only to develop the results obtained.
Yeah, but you have forgot that you do not get any positive result if you do not have any knowledge and which is what makes trading extreme gambling for those who do not have any trading idea or knowledge. This is not a call for debate, as long as we cannot give a 100% affirmation of the future and we are expecting a good outcome, makes it a prediction game.

Nevertheless, knowledge helps us to get the best of it to make accurate predictions once in a while, and without it, you are a gambler. Any trader that is depending on luck 100% on trading is definitely the highest of all the gamblers in the category that the OP mentioned.

I understand where he is coming from which is the fact that most of us who even have strategies, sometimes fail and we only have further strategies to make further decisions for a better gain. The whales like he said will never lose, they have all it takes, and they move the market the way they want, which makes the rest of us just trying to catch up.
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March 08, 2018, 05:49:50 PM
 #106

Yes trading is gamble because when money is involved in a short term profit is visible it means gamble, but it plays in a different way also, but since trading is about buying and selling therefore it is more on business activity, that needs a hard effort inorder to make profit,  but then after all it is still considered as gamble because money is the main character of the play
But anyway if seen from the basic of the effort, it's really not a gamble, it's more dependent on the expertise in analyzing the prices over time as well as choosing the right coins to be used as a trading effort. This is not a game such as in a gambling, which's only dependent on lucky (not strategy), and I think the luckies in trading depends on expertise on the price analys, it's different with a gambling that's just dependent on the game which's really randomly and testing our luckies.

In the end, it all comes down to how much you earn vs how much you lose, the financial result. It doesn't matter what trading strategies you build, what trading techniques you use, what trading philosophy you stick to. If you lose continuously, then you are gambling, end of story. I understand that trading feels differently and it is comforting as well as encouraging to find or conjure up explanations why trading is not gambling. But if you accept that trading is ultimately a zero-sum game and there is a certain edge that some actors have over the market, you will have to accept as well that trading is gambling for the majority of traders.
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March 08, 2018, 06:35:00 PM
 #107

Gambling can be termed as an educated guess. It isn't a pure gamble. A person does a thorough analysis of charts and patterns. Added to that, trader looks for the market sentiments as well. Whereas in gambling, most of the time it's pure luck. Both, trading and gambling, are the games of luck but in former, through analysis, chances are made better.
Pretty good point. Normally, if we are to look at the real meaning of gambling in the literal sense, trading can easily fit in, since it is still a prediction and we are busy awaiting an expected outcome which sometimes may not even dance to our tune irrespective of our analysis, but we get it right most of the time and that is what differentiates it from the real gambling where you have no strategy or information to make quality decision and all you rely on his luck. So with that, we may call trading a good or smartest way to gamble.

Since gambling is all about luck which is what makes it different entirely from trading. I understand that we may see it as a higher educated form of gambling since we are speculating and predicting what an outcome might be based on the indicators or analysis we do, but still, it is nothing compared to a total game of luck.
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March 08, 2018, 07:15:29 PM
 #108

We can't say trading and gambling are same. Gambling is purely luck and all about risks. Once lost we have to lose everything we bet and  if we have luck we can earn much all by chances. If we see trading it too involves high risks and of course we can overcome the risks if the person trading have good skill and knowledge plus keen observation on the market situation.

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March 08, 2018, 07:24:18 PM
 #109

The recent move of the prices of BTC has proven it. I'm certain that if there was no Binance FUD we'd be higher than 11700 USD. Everything was indicating that we are in the rising pattern and the pattern that formed when people sold following the FUD news of a hack made others think that double top is forming. As a result we have another wave of sales today. Worst case scenario they will continue doing so until we reach $7k to form this pattern.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Brab2m8H-Double-Top-on-Bitcoin/
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March 08, 2018, 07:58:12 PM
 #110

I tried trading twice back in 2016 and "lost" 1 Bitcoin in total. Thats a lot, if you consider the last ATH. Not everybody is a born trader  Cheesy
Lol. One thing I have noticed with trading is as long as you can manage yourself in the market to trade safely, then you should be fine. However, a lot of people only gamble the market, until they realize that they are totally wrong.

At least, we have somethings to look out for to know if the whales are looking to direct a market upward, look for available resistance and play with that, and at the end, that gives you some undisputed advantage as well over someone who does not have the skills.

I honestly like the last aspect of OP where he said losing to someone who has an undisputed advantage over him and the market. I consider all these groups as whales anyway and whether we leave it or not, they control the market and they will always have the highest advantage, and the only thing is to make use of this to roll along with them and see where it leads which gives the learned trader an edge over the ones who just see gambling as 100% luck. One way or the other, someone would be smarter than the other.

You're welcome, bud.

The problem is you can't get into their mind. Another problem is they come in all shades and colors, with different ideas and intentions. What I want to say is that they make easy money of course but it doesn't mean they always go for it. If things don't "dance to their tune", they will just stay away from doing anything. After all, if they are indisputable, they can't fight against each other, right? In a nutshell, guessing what will be the next move and who is actually going to make it is not very far from gambling on its own.
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March 08, 2018, 10:43:37 PM
 #111

Everything was indicating that we are in the rising pattern and the pattern that formed when people sold following the FUD news of a hack made others think that double top is forming.
It's a simple matter of there not being enough demand to sustain anything over the $10,000 mark. If the demand was there, then it would have broken through $12,000 already, regardless of what the charts indicate.

Worst case scenario they will continue doing so until we reach $7k to form this pattern.
That would be a shame, but not entirely impossible. It's a shame because the longer we trade below the $10,000 mark, the lower the overall confidence in the market will be, so $8000 or even $7000 might become reality.

I however prefer to wait for the market to dive below the $9000 mark to form a solid conclusion, because at this point the downward movement might just be of temporary nature. This market can bounce up as fast as it went down.

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March 09, 2018, 12:30:44 AM
 #112

Of course it is. No matter how skilled trader you are, (or poker player/or sports expert), you might lose horribly in the short to mid term. No matter how well prepared you are, how much research you do, or good strategy you have, it is still possible the market (cards/result) go the other way and wipe you out. There's an element of randomness and variables you can't control or predict.
Technical analysis and fundamental are just a distraction in these wild markets, shady exchanges, market manipulations and inside practices are not predictable and eventually destroy even the best traders.

Technically, what we do everyday is a gamble. Investing involves and individual risking his/her resources in the right circumstances and then withdrawing it when the right time comes. What makes it difference is we have all the factors to consider and the knowledge to know WHEN to withdraw every investment. Same as trading; people trade and risk their resources for higher profits but they have the power to control their risk and limit the chances of losing every investment. What makes these different from gambling is, even if you have all the techniques and tricks, if the odds are against you then you are surely bound to lose.

I wouldn't say that trading and gambling are the same, because trading and gambling are different by nature.Trade on my Demo account only,then the game ends))

They may be different in nature but all involves something that can be lost and the presence of risk. Anyone can gamble as long as they have the right amount of resources but not everyone can do trading as it involves some techniques and knowledge that can potentially lower the risk of you losing your investments, unlike gambling.
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March 09, 2018, 07:20:34 AM
 #113

I think trading is not a place for gambling trading is pure selling and buying bitcoin if you think gambling I think it is wrong. gambling is guessing the numbers whereas trading is only buying and selling when it's lucky then selling never to guess the numbers.

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March 10, 2018, 10:08:12 AM
 #114

Ill analyze gambling vs poker vs trading in three different dimensions

-1: House edge and winning odds-
A. Gambling: The house has a fixed edge of 10% or so, there is no skill, and you will always lose in the long run
B. Poker: The house still has an edge of 10% via the rake, but you are playing other players so if you are 10% better than other players (or 20% depending on the maths here), then you will win in the long run. Its very hard to get this kind of skill but its possible.
C. Trading: The house has a rake of 0.4% via commissions, and the game is based on skill. So its much easier to beat the game than poker if you are only 0.4% better than the other players.

-2: Risk-
A. Gambling: Typically betting 100% of your money which can be instantly lost
B. Poker: Typically bettering 100% of your money which can be instantly lost
C: Trading: Uness you are using margin, the loss is rarely 100%. A typical crypto loss is around 5-10%. On the worst of days, bitcoin goes down maybe 50% before having a hard rebound and if you have patience you wont even need to take that loss. You control your risk. You can set stop losses, you can catch rebounds. A good trader only takes losses of less than 1-5%, and makes wins of 50%+. Youd have to be in dozens of these losing trades in a row to lose your money.

-3: Bitcoin X factor -
Bitcoin has historically been in a bull market. Even with the 'rake' and even as a bad trader, the odds are always highly in favor of investors. Its still a zero sum game but the people who pay are going to be the big time investors that buy at the very top of $1M (or maybe it was $20K). So if all you do is make long trades, it is very hard to lose fiat (but easy to lose coins). This of course will no longer be the case once bitcoin finally fails.

Well, it seems that I could agree on your third "dimension", that Bitcoin has been in a bull market for the last few years, but for the "has been" part. You likely know it better than most posters here how bad this can play out in the end, which you seem to admit yourself. Basically, we can't read the future, and it is particularly true in respect to long-term investments, especially in the crypto world. In short-term or day trading this is irrelevant since you are mostly riding the volatility thing anyway, and it is not going to disappear any time soon.

The other two points are cherry picking. I had been gambling a little in the past and I'm somewhat familiar with the things there. Most casinos have a house edge of around 0.5-1% nowadays, so it is not much different from trading fees. And you don't typically stake everything.
For sure, we cannot always know what can happen with what we are holding in the market and sometimes, since we cannot predict what can really happen and we only have the analysis to help us, we still have the stop loss to help us out when our limit is reached. The only thing is that we do not only need to rely on luck 100% to be able to make a good trade, but in our skills which is what makes a professional different from a noob.

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March 10, 2018, 12:04:18 PM
 #115

I want to straighten it out, trading is not a gamble. Well, if you are just guessing in trading it can be said as gambling.
But here trading requires the expertise of the analyst so you do not lose.
Only a few people who think commerce is gambling because of the lack of science in trade, they just do their luck.

Most wannabe traders are gambling anyway. It works when the price steadily rises with minor pullbacks as was the case with Bitcoin for a couple of last years but it no longer works when a sideways market establishes. And then it starts to be a cut-throat competition and the vast majority of traders eventually lose. Ultimately, it doesn't matter what people think or how sophisticated their trading strategies are. It is the end result that counts, either profit or loss.
In a way, we may need some luck, but we cannot always rely on it but in our own skills. Trading is risky for sure, and with the way the market is, you still have to be extra careful and obviously, it seems only the group of whales in the market are the ones who are not really gambling since they are the ones who control it to the tune they want. The only saving grace we have is that there are strategies we can always make use of to play safe and win most of the time.
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March 10, 2018, 03:39:11 PM
 #116

That may be true because even how good a trader you are, there will really be a time where you earn almost nothing. Trading is quite the risk since you are trading with a very risky digital currencies because of its market price volatility. You may bought a crypto at a very low price today and only realized that it will pump after a couple of years.
You assumed wrongly perhaps because you're not into trading yourself! You may want to know that no experienced traders expects all the orders they place to end in profits and only those who do not understand the mechanism of the market would reason otherwise. To jump to the conclusion that trading and gambling are one and same, is a clear manifestation of the lack of understand how knowledge and skills demystifies mysteries!

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March 10, 2018, 07:13:49 PM
 #117

That may be true because even how good a trader you are, there will really be a time where you earn almost nothing. Trading is quite the risk since you are trading with a very risky digital currencies because of its market price volatility. You may bought a crypto at a very low price today and only realized that it will pump after a couple of years.
You assumed wrongly perhaps because you're not into trading yourself! You may want to know that no experienced traders expects all the orders they place to end in profits and only those who do not understand the mechanism of the market would reason otherwise. To jump to the conclusion that trading and gambling are one and same, is a clear manifestation of the lack of understand how knowledge and skills demystifies mysteries!
first you need to decide what kind of responsibility and desire you feel about gambling diarrhea or to trade. In fact, they are almost the same, but that nemesis is engaged in trade, the trader gets a profit much more often and much more, unlike a gambler .

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March 10, 2018, 07:40:05 PM
 #118

Yes trading is also gambling but at least with a small risk. Gambling is a game that if you lose you lose all that you have gambled. But in trading it is a buying and selling formula in which you can get more profit when the value will soar high but if not you can at least get a little profit and the invested money is still intact or at least a little bit lesser.

This is an argument which I already heard a few times in this thread alone. I had been gambling a lot in the past (dice to be sure), and believe me this is a wrong conclusion in general. Indeed, if you bet all you can lose all, as simple as it gets. But if you think that if you don't close a losing position in trading, then you will be able to make a profit or at least break even one day, this is a wrong assumption too. This has been the case with Bitcoin till recently but if the price never reaches your entry point, you are stuck. And in that very case, it is not particularly different from losing a bet in dice, even if you close your position, since a loss is a loss no matter where it happens.
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March 11, 2018, 04:24:09 AM
 #119

Trade is not always gambling. There are many people who abuse the bitcoin to commit illegal acts but not all gambling. Bitcoin is also a legitimate way of doing business and earning money if you follow the rules of bitcoin.


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March 11, 2018, 08:33:26 AM
 #120

I wouldn't say that trading and gambling are the same, because trading and gambling are different by nature.Trade on my Demo account only,then the game ends))
Yeah it's different. Although both has risk to lose your money. Trading has higher chances that you gain profits as gambling needs luck to gain due to slim probability of winning.

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