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Author Topic: Trading is gambling after all  (Read 697 times)
di.ako.toh
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February 25, 2018, 04:05:10 AM
 #21

In some part, trading is different from gambling even there are risks each of them. As we all know, gambling depends on luck, more chances of we got to loose than winning, while in trading it requires deep analysis and strategic planning for us to succeed in trading.

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February 25, 2018, 05:47:36 AM
 #22

there are some way that some time trading are just like gambling, because you are putting your money into it and you will see if that money will grow or now, or in gambling "will win or not".
If we gain profit in trading it is also the same as winning in gambling.
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February 25, 2018, 02:12:24 PM
 #23

well gambling has a clear definition. it is something that you can not predict at all. it is 100% pure chance. for example when you roll a dice or flip a coin there is no way to know what the result of it will be. meaning pure chance.

but when it comes to trading and prices, it is hard to predict but it is not 100% unclear. you can expect certain scenarios to happen with different levels of certainty based on the market situation. and that is a big difference that makes it distinguished from gambling.

If we presume that the absolute majority of traders are losing in the long run, then, to me, this pretty much counts as gambling. I agree that traders do think they can expect certain scenarios to come about more often than others but if they invariably lose in the end, what does it change? When you flip a coin and you don't know anything about your chances, you can also build sophisticated theories why, for example, you should get heads more often than tails. But it doesn't matter, does it? Given that there is a sort of house edge in trading too, we should unmistakably come to the conclusion outlined in OP.
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February 25, 2018, 03:38:18 PM
 #24

 I dont see trading as one of a gambling activity. Because even the both of them has its own risk, but still requires deep learning and tactics for success in trading. While in gambling, even you think  better ways still it has more chances on the use of luck in order to win.

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February 25, 2018, 04:09:03 PM
 #25

In some part, trading is different from gambling even there are risks each of them. As we all know, gambling depends on luck, more chances of we got to loose than winning, while in trading it requires deep analysis and strategic planning for us to succeed in trading.
and I rather think that gambling can be more promising if we need profit quickly, and of course it can not be separated from. strategy and emotional control.
it is different with deep trading analysis and sometimes it always fails. and when that happens. sometimes we have to be patient to hold until the price back high
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February 25, 2018, 04:13:42 PM
 #26

Honestly, I disagree with you, because there is a big difference between the field of trading and gambling in many things. As well, In trading if you analyzed  the market 
 so well then you can earn an acceptable amount of money in an easy way. And always the best chance (opportunity) to ensure the profit when there is a Big drop ( Crisis) in the Market and the patience is essential in trading . In otherwise, In the field of gambling , It is very important to have a different strategies (Plan A, Plan B..) especially after each loss. And the choices are different in many types of areas (Casinos, Online sport betting) bur hurrying choices may lead to many financial losses.
On the other hand,  the only thing common to these two fields is the existence of luck for profit
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February 25, 2018, 06:22:24 PM
 #27

Trading is always gambling and people espousing TA aren't much different from weirdoes who devote their lives to coming up with mathematical formulas they believe work on horse racing.

It's true that the real men are forged in sideways markets. We're nowhere near inert though and I don't think this current action can be called sideways when 10-20% can be gained or lost in a day. Try weeks of $250.

Personally, I'm not a strong believer in TA myself unless we speak about pretty simple things like seeing the trend, which don't require convoluted math. That said, it is not just about sideways markets alone. It is even harder to make money on a falling market, and let's not forget that Bitcoin had been falling for almost two years before, and now we may well be at the verge of our road down. Indeed, you can try shorting but we all know how often it ends in a complete disaster with deposits blown away in a glimpse. In a sense, such markets are the worst nightmare for the total majority of traders if they come to stay.
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February 25, 2018, 08:53:18 PM
 #28

Again wrong. Trading bitcoin is extremely easy after 5 years of doing it. All I have to do is buy when I see a certain amount of volume on a big drop. Its not like ordinary trading where you have to make your wins bigger than your losses. In bitcoin I always win. Yes it is alot harder once the bear market really sets in. I tend to stay out during this time. Within a few weeks I will be finalizing all my withdrawals (into a ratio of cash and bitcoin) and you wont see me probably until the next halving.

Um, do you not think you're biased because you're good at it? If you have the discipline and the foresight then you're moving to something beyond raw gambling. Most 'traders' luzz shit at the wall and hope it sticks.

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February 25, 2018, 09:52:56 PM
 #29

In a way trading could be considered gambling, but there a lot of different variations in gambling risk. What I mean is that some gambling games are completely games of chance like dice where there is no skill involved. But there are also games where skill is a factor such as in poker.

You can argue that risk in trading is lower if you are skilled at reading charts and if you do research on the coins you are trading. You may even be able to say that if you are highly skilled, trading may not really be gambling.
I would say that trading is not gambling. I think when we do trading then we can still do an analysis that can help us to take decisions, while playing trading then fully we hope to luck. Everyone must have a difference of opinion and I think it is fair. if calculated maybe only 30% of people who consider trading as a gambling.

Exactly, gambling is way too far than trading, you can't stop loss in gambling but through trading you can minimize your loss by taking additional measures. Trading is gambling for panic sellers and beginners who leave the market soon after a single loss.
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February 26, 2018, 06:04:54 AM
 #30

For most of us, it's gambling indeed. This is not different than buying a lottery ticket, if you don't know how to analyze charts and understand the market.

95% of "trader" will lose money, when only 5% will win. Of course, these 5% have more knowledge than the rest. And it's easy to lose, generally, in the first trades, we win. But once we start to lose, we make mistakes to try to recover, so we are less patient, or taking more risks. When I discovered bitcoin, I tried to trade, and of course, I almost lost all what I had  Cheesy

Thanksfully, I didn't invested so much at this time.

If you want to stop gambling, go to a trading school and learn the basics. If you can't reconsider the question, you trade without knowledge, this will turn against you, for sure. So in this case, don't play all your stack on trading, just a small part. At least, you'll be smart and don't lose everything.


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February 26, 2018, 06:50:29 AM
 #31

well gambling has a clear definition. it is something that you can not predict at all. it is 100% pure chance. for example when you roll a dice or flip a coin there is no way to know what the result of it will be. meaning pure chance.

but when it comes to trading and prices, it is hard to predict but it is not 100% unclear. you can expect certain scenarios to happen with different levels of certainty based on the market situation. and that is a big difference that makes it distinguished from gambling.

If we presume that the absolute majority of traders are losing in the long run, then, to me, this pretty much counts as gambling.
why would you make that assumption? based on what data?

even if we assume it is true, that still doesn't make "trading" like gambling. instead it makes "traders" as gamblers. and there is a big difference there.

Quote
When you flip a coin and you don't know anything about your chances, you can also build sophisticated theories why, for example, you should get heads more often than tails. But it doesn't matter, does it? Given that there is a sort of house edge in trading too, we should unmistakably come to the conclusion outlined in OP.
first of all making theories doesn't mean these theories are correct. and when it comes to gambling such as flipping a coin you will never get more heads and tails. every flip has an equal chance of going either way no matter what happened before.
and that is one of the differences. for example in trading if there was a big rise (ie what happened before) then you can expect a drop or correction (you can predict heads or tails since one has a much higher chance of happening now)

secondly house edge means the house or the thingy you are betting against has a better chance of winning than you. there is no such thin in trading, and you are not trading against one entity. you are trading against a lot of others based on the market movements.
if you can go with the flow you win.

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February 26, 2018, 07:10:42 AM
 #32

well gambling has a clear definition. it is something that you can not predict at all. it is 100% pure chance. for example when you roll a dice or flip a coin there is no way to know what the result of it will be. meaning pure chance.

but when it comes to trading and prices, it is hard to predict but it is not 100% unclear. you can expect certain scenarios to happen with different levels of certainty based on the market situation. and that is a big difference that makes it distinguished from gambling.

If we presume that the absolute majority of traders are losing in the long run, then, to me, this pretty much counts as gambling.
why would you make that assumption? based on what data?

even if we assume it is true, that still doesn't make "trading" like gambling. instead it makes "traders" as gamblers. and there is a big difference there.

Quote
When you flip a coin and you don't know anything about your chances, you can also build sophisticated theories why, for example, you should get heads more often than tails. But it doesn't matter, does it? Given that there is a sort of house edge in trading too, we should unmistakably come to the conclusion outlined in OP.
first of all making theories doesn't mean these theories are correct. and when it comes to gambling such as flipping a coin you will never get more heads and tails. every flip has an equal chance of going either way no matter what happened before.
and that is one of the differences. for example in trading if there was a big rise (ie what happened before) then you can expect a drop or correction (you can predict heads or tails since one has a much higher chance of happening now)

secondly house edge means the house or the thingy you are betting against has a better chance of winning than you. there is no such thin in trading, and you are not trading against one entity. you are trading against a lot of others based on the market movements.
if you can go with the flow you win.

I like the point about a rise being more likely to be followed by a fall than not. There will always be some luck involved, but with smart decisions you should be able to 'win' more often than you lose. I'm just trying to build up the skill of knowing the correct times to sell and buy back in during swings to take advantage of this and increase my holdings in the coins I've chosen. Now, daytrading on minute candles, to me that feels more like gambling. Doesn't mean you can't be good at it though.
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February 26, 2018, 07:19:16 AM
 #33

yes definitely true, trading is like a gamble..you use money as capital... you gamble it whether   it will be successful or not..it is a nature in trading but it is good to try because it adds knowledge on how and what to trade

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February 26, 2018, 08:17:12 AM
 #34

and I rather think that gambling can be more promising if we need profit quickly, and of course it can not be separated from. strategy and emotional control.

I beats me why some people still believe that gambling can be more "promising". In trading you can at least hope to evaluate fundamentals and expect the prices to rise or fall in the near future unless these fundamentals have already been priced in. But in casino gambling, such as dice, your only chance at winning is pure luck, except when you can change the odds in your favor somehow. The longer you play the less importance and effect luck will have because it will be largely overridden by house edge. It is not particularly different in trading either, given that the market has its own "house edge" over a typical trader, but at least milking the market as via arbitrage is not considered illegal here.

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February 26, 2018, 08:53:01 AM
Last edit: February 26, 2018, 09:10:04 AM by PX-Z
 #35

yes definitely true, trading is like a gamble..you use money as capital... you gamble it whether   it will be successful or not..it is a nature in trading but it is good to try because it adds knowledge on how and what to trade

No it's not, crypto trading needs a lot of learnings and abilities while gambling are not. Because when it comes to crypto trading, you can be a successful one if you have all the abilities of a good trader. But in gambling, even though that you're a professional gambler or what ever profession you have, you don't know actually what will happen to your capital, because gambling always depend on the luck of the player.
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February 26, 2018, 11:09:42 AM
 #36

Honestly, I disagree with you, because there is a big difference between the field of trading and gambling in many things. As well, In trading if you analyzed  the market 
 so well then you can earn an acceptable amount of money in an easy way. And always the best chance (opportunity) to ensure the profit when there is a Big drop ( Crisis) in the Market and the patience is essential in trading . In otherwise, In the field of gambling , It is very important to have a different strategies (Plan A, Plan B..) especially after each loss. And the choices are different in many types of areas (Casinos, Online sport betting) bur hurrying choices may lead to many financial losses.
On the other hand,  the only thing common to these two fields is the existence of luck for profit

Obviously, you can find many differences between trading and gambling. In the end, it all depends upon what you are looking for and into. But here, I'm looking into the most important thing that all traders are striving for. This is profit or lack thereof. And as far as profits are concerned (lack of profits), trading and gambling are quite similar. And it is not only about some outward similarities and likeness in this regard, it is more about mechanics which explains why people are set to lose both in trading and gambling, what makes most traders lose in the long run.
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February 26, 2018, 11:12:00 PM
 #37

and I rather think that gambling can be more promising if we need profit quickly, and of course it can not be separated from. strategy and emotional control.

I beats me why some people still believe that gambling can be more "promising". In trading you can at least hope to evaluate fundamentals and expect the prices to rise or fall in the near future unless these fundamentals have already been priced in. But in casino gambling, such as dice, your only chance at winning is pure luck, except when you can change the odds in your favor somehow. The longer you play the less importance and effect luck will have because it will be largely overridden by house edge. It is not particularly different in trading either, given that the market has its own "house edge" over a typical trader, but at least milking the market as via arbitrage is not considered illegal here.

There are a lot of gamblers who 'play' the crypto market. For a guy who is investing in the 1000th ranked cryptocurrency, do you really think he is trying to evaluate fundamentals and take an informed view? He is just making a punt on the coin. Trading can be treated as a game, and crypto trading is a high-adrenaline game.


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February 27, 2018, 06:48:09 AM
 #38

I have experienced shady exchange practices first hand back in the early days. In my cases it was on Mintpal and Cryptsy. The issues were Bitcoin deposits not posting during a massive crash of a certain altcoin, where the deposits posted exactly at the moment the market was bought up again. Disabling deposits and withdrawals of coins with massive spreads accross various exchanges, where everything was enabled again once the spread was gone. Orderbook manipulation where the orderbook adjusted itself based on how I was modifying a buy or sell order before I even executed the order. Altcoins that suddenly got dumped down massively, where a few minutes later the exchanges announced that they will be delisted -- this is something Poloniex has done last year as well. Overall, great analysis!
This has even happened recently and honestly that sucks, knowing that a lot of these exchanges are mostly the ones playing with the market to prevent somethings from happening. The Altcoins getting dumped and then you getting the news of delisting is even more common on bittrex and that has made me as a whole concentrate more on coins that are at least better. One thing with trading is that with knowledge, you can make some predictions based on where the market may be leading and this is where swings come in, and as long as you are not controlling the market, just stick to your own knowledge.
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February 27, 2018, 06:59:32 AM
 #39

In human endavour every things is gambling. Trading is an advance gambling and we have to let newbie know  that trading is a gambling and you cannot continue making money without loses and the odd is always against you because you can not predict the market 100% perfectly.  Don't trade without understanding how the market behave and of a truth cannot make money in forex, stock, commodities and cryptocurrencies without understanding the risk associating with it.

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yonjitsu
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February 27, 2018, 10:54:44 AM
 #40

Yes most especially if you don't really know well about the movement of every cryptocurrencies you have in portfolio or shall we say you are not regularly following the cryptomarket and missed an opportunity to buy a cheaper crypto or to sell it at a higher price. It's like really gambling and it has also two results of "WINNING" or "LOSING".

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