Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter

[ferda2mx]

So you took a logarithmic chart and drew a line with windows paint? Cool...

Power in simply solutions

But if exponential growth could last forever, it would work. Remind me how one fly could populate in just few years to a population weighting one Earth mass in ideal conditions

[thezerg]

Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU!

You are ignorant if you think the BRICs are economically backwards.  There is a lot of concentrated wealth and also a lot of concentrated poverty in these nations.  But just for clarity I did start to wince when the OP suggested the exponential was going to continue to 1 trillion.  My gut tells me the S will inflect FAR before that point.  Regardless, thx for reading my post!

[justusranvier]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

This adoption process is slow and mostly invisible to the consumer (you), and will even be considered by some companies to be a confidential competitive advantage.  So expect news about this to be under-reported.  This is 2014.

Interesting. You should mention this on /r/Bitcoin, because I don't think people really get this. They tend to think retail adoption is the main thing to watch. I myself think people are buying primarily for store-of-value based on future promise (and wealthy getting a few percent of their wealth hide-able and unconfiscatable), perhaps followed by B2B soon, then retail - same story as yours but with store-of-value/investment being the primary driver.

[smoothie]

We live in very interesting times.

The cool factor is that in the bitcoin world a year feels like 30 years when compared to financial markets.

[BitChick]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

This sounds about right.  Many people would say that is crazy and too optimistic but tell that to the people who bought at $15 a year ago!  It could be a conservative estimate for all we know.

I think there will be some ups and downs along the way of course.

[sgbett]

This is my arbitrary line. Its more of a fairly conservative baseline support level. I expect there will continue to be bumps along the way, but I dont think the price will ever dip much below this line failing a black swan event.

$1000 BTC July '15  seems reasonable.

[impulse]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

[600watt]

$1000 BTC July '15  seems reasonable.

Yeah, that would be a lower est for me. Seems pretty solid.

july 2015 ? good to know, because:   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285771.msg3055867#msg3055867

[cypherdoc]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

this must be why your name is impulse.

[adamstgBit]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

this must be why your name is impulse.

i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising....

[cypherdoc]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

this must be why your name is impulse.

i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising....

not again?!  Adam!

[impulse]

i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising....

not again?!  Adam!

Isn't this one of the reasons we love Adam so much? The quick rises also give me some anxiety, but I also don't want to be caught in a short position should the price explode. There was plenty of that going on early this year.

[adamstgBit]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

this must be why your name is impulse.

i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising....

not again?!  Adam!

this time, i'm buying FTC

 

[jubalix]

There are Austrians who can't think for themselves and those that can. Nice how the ones who can get to make the dough.

--

For a slightly more conservative estimate (14 months for every order of magnitude instead of about 11.5 months in my version), see this projected chart from adamas's post. "$200 by Christmas, $500 by late Spring, $1000 by Fall." (A little over 4 months to double.)

my version is 13 months to do an order of magnitude (x 10) so very close to yours, but note upper and lower bounds, for quicker 10x

[prophetx]

Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU!

You are ignorant if you think the BRICs are economically backwards.  There is a lot of concentrated wealth and also a lot of concentrated poverty in these nations.  But just for clarity I did start to wince when the OP suggested the exponential was going to continue to 1 trillion.  My gut tells me the S will inflect FAR before that point.  Regardless, thx for reading my post!

i think you mean widespread poverty...

anyway the OP clearly has not heard of Mpesa...

[prophetx]

Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time.

NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, we're the whole world's in for a wild ride.

So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000
Thats 20 quintillion.

Next.

Puppet, ZB is simply applying the same exponential growth functions to the price that you keep insisting apply to the difficulty in the Hardware forum.

as soon as we start minting those 1 trillion dollar platinum coins this becomes totally possible

[adamstgBit]

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

this must be why your name is impulse.

i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising....

not again?!  Adam!

this time, i'm buying FTC

 

Xpm or ltc will be around in two years.    Will ftc?

yes i think so, the guys behind it are really pushing it hard, i think.

FTC is a geek! BUY BUY BUY!

why would LTC or PMS be a safer choice?

[wobber]

My humble rodents, I command you to take that wall down!

[wobber]

Thank you! Going to sleep, and want to see 200 in the morning.

Your master.