Call the top

[Tzupy]

The theoretical top for Gox was 378$, because of low volume it couldn't climb higher. China went up a lot at the same time.
And then the rebound on Gox climbed higher than the top, to 395$, because the volume and bullishness returned. Crazy!

[BarkinTree]

are you saying we already reached the top? i was thinking we just needed a very deep correction because of the velocity of price movement. which we have had. not sure how much lower it will go, but i think there is some fuel left to the rally. just need to consolidate first.

[Adrian-x]

I'll put on my rose coloured glasses, I see a lot of demand coming from existing traders, investing virgin fiat. (So this rally is partly supported by the old guard and poised for a huge correction from where we are now.)

There is also new investors testing the water with a sub $1000 investment a lot of them investing at sub $100.

Then there are the new oligarchs, some invested in mining and they have been snapping up a lot of coins off exchange behind the eyes of the traders. (I've herd a few mention coin supply has run dry.)

There are also the SecondMarket converts who will spin this off by investing directly in Bitcoin, leveraging there public investment in the ETF's (and some speculation the Winklevoss will get SEC approval)

Then there is the upcoming presentation to the US Senate and the resulting insight.

Not to mention I've noticed more public opinion on why we need something like Bitcoin, indicating people get it.

So I'm going out on a limb and call a top in 6 to 9 month's of around $30,000 give or take a handful of flash crashes like we have just seen 30-50% volatility on the way up.

[600watt]

I'll put on my rose coloured glasses, I see a lot of demand coming from existing traders, investing virgin fiat. (So this rally is partly supported by the old guard and poised for a huge correction from where we are now.)

There is also new investors testing the water with a sub $1000 investment a lot of them investing at sub $100.

Then there are the new oligarchs, some invested in mining and they have been snapping up a lot of coins off exchange behind the eyes of the traders. (I've herd a few mention coin supply has run dry.)

There are also the SecondMarket converts who will spin this off by investing directly in Bitcoin, leveraging there public investment in the ETF's (and some speculation the Winklevoss will get SEC approval)

Then there is the upcoming presentation to the US Senate and the resulting insight.

Not to mention I've noticed more public opinion on why we need something like Bitcoin, indicating people get it.

So I'm going out on a limb and call a top in 6 to 9 month's of around $30,000 give or take a handful of flash crashes like we have just seen 30-50% volatility on the way up.

i will send you 50 000,- us $ if you are right. with love. 

[kireinaha]

Already hit the top this time around. Investors are getting wiser, and everyone is anticipating a big drop like in April. We're likely to see a bear market as investors lose interest and the price eases down to the $150-$200 range by year end.

[600watt]

Already hit the top this time around. Investors are getting wiser, and everyone is anticipating a big drop like in April. We're likely to see a bear market as investors lose interest and the price eases down to the $150-$200 range by year end.

one month ago this would would have been seen as optimistic. kinda changed now. sub 200 is history.

[david64]

When I saw it fall from $395 I thought it would be the top, until then I had no idea. At that point the volume to sustain could not be found. Right now I think we are in the phase of people thinking they are buying cheap, plus some whales who are trying to pump to sell the coins other whales dumped on them.

I think a big crash will be seen in China, as they are newer to BTC. They went almost $50 above Gox, and are now lagging. So consider getting on a Chinese exchange. I took advantage of the $1 difference in LTC there to get in.

So I guess now we are calling the bottom. There has been a serious amount of money put into BTC at prices above 200 and 300. If these people wake up and find the price is 250, there could be some serious panic selling, snowballing. However, to counteract this I think there will be a lot of people ready to catch the falling knife. If BTC were to continue a steady growth as from about July, we'd be looking at 120-160. So I think the bottom will be either a bit below or above this, depending on how frantic the panic is and how determined people are to buy on the way down.

In this spike we must have seen at least $100,000,000 come into BTC. If 25% of that goes on panic sells, it should fall to the mid-100 range.

[ajax3592]

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

[TERA]

$550, or $800. Bitcoin has not had two 'tall bubbles' in a row since its inception. We might a short bubble like in 2012 instead. I feel the resistance at each level getting progressively heavier and more violent. Eventually it will be too much for the bulls to handle and they will turn into bears.

[AlgoSwan]

It is always impossible to predict the top of any given market especially if the market has limited-supply and increased-demand which is seen exactly now on BTC. Four digits is more likely than two digits in this kind of environment (limited-supply, increased demand).

[Paladin69]

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

Yes it could.  Have your funds ready.

[tarmi]

523 $

[kireinaha]

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

Bitcoin works on waves of enthusiasm as new investors and new money seeps in. But once the bull rush loses momentum and interest trickles down, it will likely fall well below $280. I'd be surprised if it isn't in that range again or lower by next month.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Around 650-700 or 1200 based on previous bubbles and where we might be now in relation to them.

If I am right I expect a cake

[Barnacle_Ed]

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.

If I am right I expect a cake

Me too.

[wobber]

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.

If I am right I expect a cake

Me too.

What historical data?

[Barnacle_Ed]

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.

If I am right I expect a cake

Me too.

What historical data?

Basically how the crash back in April went down (I wasn't around for the first major crash). The remarkably steep slope in the price increase has me convinced this isn't sustainable growth, so we'll be seeing a major correction soon.

[PumpkinCoin]

my WAG:

$1975 if the Senate hearings are not negative
$524 if they are a catastrophe

[Marbit]

$500 will be broken through and then we will crash shortly after. 

[blablahblah]

$500 will be broken through and then we will crash shortly after. 

Spike up to $2000 and a disastrous collapse to $800 where it will stagnate for a few months? Sweet!