Technological unemployment is (almost) here

[bigtimespaghetti]

Automation will just make things cheaper, so people will need less money and just need to work less.
If the automation doesn't make things cheaper then how will all these people without jobs be able to afford the products created by this automation? How will this automation survive economically?

These problems are always resolved automatically and naturally by market forces.

aside:
Unemployment is an artificially created situation used by governments to keep the employment market competitive and wages low.
It's easy to solve n% unemployment if you want to - just make everyone work n% less and thus create n% more work.

I do not think i would have put in another way, well said.

If we were robots that might work.. I'll agree job markets are manipulated, but imagining some top down mandate would be effective is communism- which is inherently ineffective due to misdirection of incentives.

[Nicolas Dorier]

Old guys, with experience in many languages and fields, yet are still able to self-train are like gold and worth 5-10 times more than their younger counter-parts.

Yes, my coding heroes are above fifty, and they would wipe my ass. Mark Russinovich and Anders Hejlsberg to cite them.
And I don't cite the best book authors in development and business I read. This is what happen when someone does not stop learning until such age, they are at a whole new level.

Are you suggesting that certain automation hasn't been implemented due to the significant disruption that would likely occur? It's plausible I suppose, but I think it's creeping in, slowly. Banks having automated deposit machines now, same at train stations in the UK...

Yes.
It happens every time government give subsidize to maintain jobs. (in any disguised form, explicitly, or implicitly via tax break or political favor)

The subsidy make it economically unprofitable to automate things, so one does not develop it.
Another way of thinking is saying that subsidy make it economically profitable to keep manual labor, at the price of intellectual labor. (Well I have some doubt about whether I am paying for it because I profit directly from the shortage of intellectual labor)

[bigtimespaghetti]

It happens every time government give subsidize to maintain jobs. (in any disguised form, explicitly, or implicitly via tax break or political favor)

The subsidy make it economically unprofitable to automate things, so one does not develop it.
Another way of thinking is saying that subsidy make it economically profitable to keep manual labor, at the price of intellectual labor. (Well I have some doubt about whether I am paying for it because I profit directly from the shortage of intellectual labor)

Totally agree, government subsidy enhances inefficiency. As an aside, I believe that a large of institutionalised inefficiency is public sector unions 'protecting' their 'employees' when it's just jimmying the power of the state in a huge racket.

Boggles my mind how most people do not see the huge conflict of interest that exists in any public 'service'.

[Rassah]

Someone earlier in this thread said that "The current technology is already advanced enough to replace quite significant % of man labour, it just hasn't been implemented yet." While the poster simply stated that as an ominous looming threat, and trailed off, you guys really need to examine why it hasn't happened yet.

Are you suggesting that certain automation hasn't been implemented due to the significant disruption that would likely occur? It's plausible I suppose, but I think it's creeping in, slowly. Banks having automated deposit machines now, same at train stations in the UK...

It's mostly because it's still cheaper to use people for some labor than machines. A hiring burger making human is cheaper than building and installing a burger making robot. Same for cashiers, ticket booth operators, janitors, etc. But as long as people keep demanding increases in labor price floors (minimum wage), they will keep pushing themselves above the costs of such robots, and getting their jobs replaced. It will always be cheaper for me to just ask someone to sweep my yard, than to get a robot that's specifically designed for that job, and sits around and does nothing for most of its life.

[Beliathon]

And don't forget poetry. Machines can't do that.

Yet.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Technological Unemployment is (almost) here .... and it will be ALMOST here forever .... like it has been ALMOST here since the malthusians and luddites started spouting there unsubstantiated nonsense for 200 years already.

[maker88]

the thing about machines is someone has to maintain it. i used to work a job where i was the guy in a parking garage who took your money. then a machine got brought it (Automated payment at automatic gate) and then i became a valet parking guy, who also had to now fix that god damn machine because it broke every 45 minutes of every day. god that job sucked haha but either way. for every machine invented a job field is created for technicians of those machines, until machines start to repair themselves, which requires self awareness. and then we have bigger problems on our hands.

[iluvpie60]

at some point there would honestly have to be a law against it. unless of course.... SMART people actually bought their own robots and leased them out/maintinedthem/repaired them also.

didnt think of that did ya

hehe i dunno.

ill rent out a roomba for a few bucks. why nottt

[STT]

There are on the verge of realising an automatic fries and burger machine, coincidently there are many popular protests for fast food workers to receive unprofitable rates of pay.  Hence they invest in machines and reduce ongoing costs, that is what a business will always do and its not about being evil or whatever because business is not charity

[maker88]

at some point there would honestly have to be a law against it. unless of course.... SMART people actually bought their own robots and leased them out/maintinedthem/repaired them also.

didnt think of that did ya

hehe i dunno.

ill rent out a roomba for a few bucks. why nottt

hey those things are expensive lol, thats not a bad idea. way cheaper than a maid.

[maker88]

There are on the verge of realising an automatic fries and burger machine, coincidently there are many popular protests for fast food workers to receive unprofitable rates of pay.  Hence they invest in machines and reduce ongoing costs, that is what a business will always do and its not about being evil or whatever because business is not charity

hold on right there. the rates of pay being protested for by workers is in no way shape or for going to make these places unprofitable. they profit in the billions of dollars a year, paying workers the wage they made 10 years ago accounting for inflation is not so much to ask.

[STT]

Put it this way if its cheaper to get a machine to do it, or self service pre package the goods and let customers warm it up then they will go this way.   People just have the wrong perspective about why a business even exists.   Why not setup a fast food cooperative and then the workers will determine their own costs, pay and profits together.  

If people want to paint it as evil company making billions, treating people like slaves then why wouldnt any competition be possible.  All Im interested in is an open fair trade system, Ive worked in catering and its dam hard work but there is no monopoly on beef cooking and sticking it in some bread?

Governments forcing something to be true is a real negative, for the business, for the people working, for capitalism.   Just increase freedom and open competition and it'll raise prices for the cost of labour.  Stick a legal chain and ball on companies and it eventually causes unemployment, its sad to see people calling for it

[transient858]

We had this arguments since the industry revolution in the early days.

Free market competition will solve the unemployment issue. That is, if we also remove intellectual protection and long term welfare.

[bigtimespaghetti]

There are on the verge of realising an automatic fries and burger machine, coincidently there are many popular protests for fast food workers to receive unprofitable rates of pay.  Hence they invest in machines and reduce ongoing costs, that is what a business will always do and its not about being evil or whatever because business is not charity

hold on right there. the rates of pay being protested for by workers is in no way shape or for going to make these places unprofitable. they profit in the billions of dollars a year, paying workers the wage they made 10 years ago accounting for inflation is not so much to ask.

Flipping burgers is not a career, it's a teenagers job. Plus, the profit margins are thin on fast food restaurants, why do you think the food is so cheap? They are being paid what they are worth(the value they provide ) . Doesn't take much to dunk some rates in oil.

[Rassah]

And don't forget poetry. Machines can't do that.

Yet.

A even better example of computer poetry http://cctvcambridge.org/node/71611

In one rhyming test that the computer flunked, the clue was a "boxing term for a hit below the belt." The correct phrase was "low blow," but Watson's puzzling response was "wang bang." "He invented that," said Gondek, noting that nowhere among the tens of millions of words and phrases that had been loaded into the computer's memory did "wang bang" appear.

[bigtimespaghetti]

And don't forget poetry. Machines can't do that.

Yet.

A even better example of computer poetry http://cctvcambridge.org/node/71611

In one rhyming test that the computer flunked, the clue was a "boxing term for a hit below the belt." The correct phrase was "low blow," but Watson's puzzling response was "wang bang." "He invented that," said Gondek, noting that nowhere among the tens of millions of words and phrases that had been loaded into the computer's memory did "wang bang" appear.

This has made my morning! Thanks for the chuckle.

[BigBoozie]

Can anyone recommend some good books on this topic, Im really interested in what are predictions by people from economic and technological circles, about the coming robotization of everything, also people working on AI believe we will get there in our life time. AI will bring bigger revolution than internet.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Can anyone recommend some good books on this topic, Im really interested in what are predictions by people from economic and technological circles, about the coming robotization of everything, also people working on AI believe we will get there in our life time. AI will bring bigger revolution than internet.

If you can stand the simpering bias towards excessive socialism, Jeremy Riffkins 'Zero Marginal Cost Society' is an interesting read. Opened my eyes to some major trends, though I disagree with a lot of his reasoning - he fundamentally misunderstands what capitalism is in favour of the zeitgeist that big business is evil. Though I think there is some admittance that the state is partially responsible for destructive monopolies it is frustrating that someone obviously so clever seems to be a staunch statist.

[ihuntbtc]

No doubt we will see this happen, I wonder what BTC will be useful for in a such a society?

[bigtimespaghetti]

No doubt we will see this happen, I wonder what BTC will be useful for in a such a society?

It could be that cryptocurrency will play a part in the knowledge based information economy.