[Not] Good price at CEX.io

[FalconFly]

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

Within short timeframes, this seems to work (thanks to permanent market manipulation at cex.io), but it won't last long. When cex GHs price breaks downward, it breaks fast & furious like last time. And falling it will, guaranteed, taking your entire investment with it - step by step.

According to this prediction CEX price will drop from curent 0.042 to 0.038 by next weekend.

It doesn't have to, as it depends of the level and endurance of manipulation. But down it will come, be it a week earlier or later. In theory, it could be even a month. Delaying the inevitable just makes the price come down faster & harder (those colluded in the inside will sell for best price at a point of their choice, while the rest - confident due to the seemingly "price stability" - usually wakes up the next morning to find out).

[BorisAlt]

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

Within short timeframes, this seems to work (thanks to permanent market manipulation at cex.io), but it won't last long. When cex GHs price breaks downward, it breaks fast & furious like last time. And falling it will, guaranteed, taking your entire investment with it - step by step.

According to this prediction CEX price will drop from curent 0.042 to 0.038 by next weekend.

It doesn't have to, as it depends of the level end endurance of manipulation. But down it will come, be it a week earlier or later. In theory, it could be even a month. Delaying the inevitable just makes the price come down faster & harder (those colluded in the inside will sell for best price at a point of their choice, while the rest - confident due to the seemingly "price stability" - usually wakes up the next morning to find out).

One month at a time. You graciously provided your estimates on what others would not. So, now we will see if it's very insightful or it's "Paul Krugman". I am especially interested in your "*omg* have you seen a doctor lately?" estimate. Good times!

[FalconFly]

I'd be more than surprised if their GHs price actually held up to 0.029BTC at the end of May
That would be a good laugh...
(although, in case BTC value fell significantly for some reason, we could easily see these figures - but in terms of valuation at the time of my posting it would just add the need to calculate the current value)

Anyway, as stated being lucky after holding for 1 month is actually possible. Will be interesting to see how things work out after 2 months or more.
In that respect, it's not much of a prediction. It was just the math of the minimum requirements to leave the game with 0 losses.

Speaking about End of Jan 2014, 0.04BTC/GHs is an important psychological mark (round number), so I don't expect it to yield without a fight before it drops below that figure (as witnessed on 26 Jan @14:15-14:30, when it was temporarily broken downwards on high volume, then rebounded). So in terms of 0.038BTC/GHs... we're not quite there yet but obviously getting close and have 5 more days to go.

PS.
*ugh* please don't compare me with Krugman *yikes*
I'd rather go unemployed on the streets holding a sign saying "useless creature" than be like Krugman

[BorisAlt]

What I like about CEX.IO experiment is that it's a VERY GOOD free market sandbox. Even if CEX.IO or other powers are trying to manipulate the market, their influence will gradually peter out, left to the free market laws. It's a much better sandbox than Mt.Gox which limits people's ability to get money in/out.

The real question that has not been answered is what IS a fair market price for 1 GHS? How does it change over time? Does it go to ZERO or it will plateau at some non-ZERO value?

The insight that I HAVE after buying my own GPUs, ASICs, participating in group buys, shares of hosted mining with small, average and finally big (CEX.IO) entities, day trading with initial budget of $10,000, reading and otherwise absorbing all the data available, I have a hunch that the price of 1GHS is not approaching zero, at least not any time soon.

By far the biggest positive factor going for CEX.IO price is LOW ENTRY REQUIREMENT, paired with LOW MAINTENANCE participation.

First, to get stuff up and running is a HUGE learning curve. That cuts 99% of world population willing to do anything about bitcoins. Second, keeping rigs up and running cuts another 90% after 12-18 months. I had three children. Keeping BTC and especially Scrypt rigs running is very similar to having a child. Unless that's a day-time job (like a daycare), rigs keep having issues (power, network, heat in summer, DDOS of pools, fan failures, mice chewing on SATA cables for whatever strange reason, etc.). After doing this for a year I feel exhausted and my family is telling me to get out. Where do I go?

Group buys and hosted mining with DZ MC was a GREAT idea. The sad reality is that they do not seem to make ROI. The guys are doing amazing job trying to keep the whole endeavor going, but all the things I listed from my own experience, they go through exact same.

Day trading is also hard and pretty brutal profession. I ended up losing about 0.2BTC, but I am still up on USD, meaning if I just bought $10,000 worth of BTC I would be better off now without wasting two weeks of my life.

There are no magic bullets in BTC kingdom. CEX.IO's price per GHS is based on the grand total of experiences like mine. I am really curious if your math predictions are going to pan out or we will see a different curve.

PS
I apologize for comparing you with Paul Krugman. No one should be so cruel.

[Sonny]

First, to get stuff up and running is a HUGE learning curve. That cuts 99% of world population willing to do anything about bitcoins. Second, keeping rigs up and running cuts another 90% after 12-18 months. I had three children. Keeping BTC and especially Scrypt rigs running is very similar to having a child. Unless that's a day-time job (like a daycare), rigs keep having issues (power, network, heat in summer, DDOS of pools, fan failures, mice chewing on SATA cables for whatever strange reason, etc.). After doing this for a year I feel exhausted and my family is telling me to get out. Where do I go?

Group buys and hosted mining with DZ MC was a GREAT idea. The sad reality is that they do not seem to make ROI. The guys are doing amazing job trying to keep the whole endeavor going, but all the things I listed from my own experience, they go through exact same.

Day trading is also hard and pretty brutal profession. I ended up losing about 0.2BTC, but I am still up on USD, meaning if I just bought $10,000 worth of BTC I would be better off now without wasting two weeks of my life.

Yup, you are right. It is not that easy for newcomers to get into the bitcoin mining world.
I had a lot of difficulty trying to figure out everything at first, and later just decided to forget about mining.
But, the point is, you don't really have to mine, if you don't find it enjoyable or profitable.

[Sonny]

There are no magic bullets in BTC kingdom. CEX.IO's price per GHS is based on the grand total of experiences like mine. I am really curious if your math predictions are going to pan out or we will see a different curve.

For the cex.io hashrate price, I don't really think it is fair.
By using the built-in profit calculator (https://cex.io/calc), you can see the hashrate price is way higher than the revenue the hashrate can generate.
Of course, the hashrate may not be able to increase 50% a month forever (~20% every 12 days), but even if you plug in 20% increase a month (~less than 10% every 14 days, unlikely), you still can't get back your investment.

[Foysal]

I'd be more than surprised if their GHs price actually held up to 0.029BTC at the end of May
That would be a good laugh...
(although, in case BTC value fell significantly for some reason, we could easily see these figures - but in terms of valuation at the time of my posting it would just add the need to calculate the current value)

Anyway, as stated being lucky after holding for 1 month is actually possible. Will be interesting to see how things work out after 2 months or more.
In that respect, it's not much of a prediction. It was just the math of the minimum requirements to leave the game with 0 losses.

Speaking about End of Jan 2014, 0.04BTC/GHs is an important psychological mark (round number), so I don't expect it to yield without a fight before it drops below that figure (as witnessed on 26 Jan @14:15-14:30, when it was temporarily broken downwards on high volume, then rebounded). So in terms of 0.038BTC/GHs... we're not quite there yet but obviously getting close and have 5 more days to go.

PS.
*ugh* please don't compare me with Krugman *yikes*
I'd rather go unemployed on the streets holding a sign saying "useless creature" than be like Krugman

It's at the 0.038 mark now, and it's highly unlikely it will go back up to 0.04 I sold and rebought my gig, so have more gig to mine with in the interim of the next dip.

~Foyz

[MStan23]

The price of GHS has dropped to an awesome price, the most competitive price out there as far as I can tell. Now before you get all up in arms about that statement, CEX is set up to to take a fair portion not like all the others. I have earned $500 in 30 days.
Sign up here and check out the prices.

http://cex.io/informer/mjsminer/44858906d601bdadc5d372da052bb8a7/

Click the image above (that may or may not be displaying for some reason)

[Sonny]

The price of GHS has dropped to an awesome price, the most competitive price out there as far as I can tell. Now before you get all up in arms about that statement, CEX is set up to to take a fair portion not like all the others. I have earned $500 in 30 days.

You find the price awesome because you saw it dropped from 0.07 down to 0.03 now?
Have you even figured out how much the hashrate can bring you after all?

[Sonny]

Sign up here and check out the prices.

You just registered an account, and make your very first post solely for your referral link.
I guess this is exactly how you earned your bitcoin...

[mocolicious]

maybe I missed something.... What the hell happened last night that made the price shoot down in one day

[krampus]

maybe I missed something.... What the hell happened last night that made the price shoot down in one day

I personally rode my sleigh around the world and slapped some god-damned sense into these morons.

[DrG]

maybe I missed something.... What the hell happened last night that made the price shoot down in one day

I personally rode my sleigh around the world and slapped some god-damned sense into these morons.

Lol, sorry but that just made me shoot milk out my nose 

Hey if they want to share their wealth with others let them.  There's been enough math and warnings, if people can't read...

[kickbit]

Price is falling down again.
They sold more than 10TH/s yesterday.

PS. And don't forget to check your investments here: http://mining-profit.com/  

[jupppo]

Price is falling down again.
They sold more than 10TH/s yesterday.

PS. And don't forget to check your investments here: http://mining-profit.com/  

Already on its way back up. I think still a good opportunity before diff change.

[krampus]

Price is falling down again.
They sold more than 10TH/s yesterday.

PS. And don't forget to check your investments here: http://mining-profit.com/  

Already on its way back up. I think still a good opportunity before diff change.

Apparently I missed one.

[joelao95]

NOT recommend. I did some investiment in it, about 24 BTC. The mining profit is just less than the price falling, seeing a falling from initial 0.046GH/BTC to about 0.039GH/BTC, and now it is 0.038. I now sold all of GHs and withraw all out. Don't want go back. I lost about 1 BTC.

Anyone can tell me if I am wrong, or if there is a way to get profits, just let me know. I got the impression that price falling is unavoidable, not like altcoin/BTC markets, down and up. 

[FalconFly]

NOT recommend. I did some investiment in it, about 24 BTC. The mining profit is just less than the price falling, seeing a falling from initial 0.046GH/BTC to about 0.039GH/BTC, and now it is 0.038. I now sold all of GHs and withraw all out. Don't want go back. I lost about 1 BTC.

Anyone can tell me if I am wrong, or if there is a way to get profits, just let me know. I got the impression that price falling is unavoidable, not like altcoin/BTC markets, down and up.  

You did absolutely the right thing - recognized a mistake, took action and booked losses before they became more severe (which they do with increasing timeframe).
Just imagine you had bought @ 0.075BTC/GHs about two months ago and held on until today - your losses would be far greater. This is how their game of skinning the unsuspecting sheeple works, the longer they stay, the more profit cex.io is skinning off them.

The only way to profit at cex.io is to successfully daytrade GHs AND be lucky when it counts.
The next best way to profit is simply not to invest at cex.io basically.

[jupppo]

CEX is mainly about GHS price speculation, mining is not more than a side income. It is certainly not long term investment! If you buy GHS after a dump and sell it on a high it gives you good profit, but you must be all over it.

[Efitzhenry]

lol .034 now