[Not] Good price at CEX.io

[FalconFly]

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

Within short timeframes, this seems to work (thanks to permanent market manipulation at cex.io), but it won't last long. When cex GHs price breaks downward, it breaks fast & furious like last time. And falling it will, guaranteed, taking your entire investment with it - step by step.

According to this prediction CEX price will drop from curent 0.042 to 0.038 by next weekend.

I see a closing price of 0.0344BTC/GHs, turns out we weren't lucky at all. That's about a 8% loss for 1 month based on the original scenario *.
Technically, we're already in close reach of what would be minimum required for end of Feb 2014 already (!).
Right now, I think my Feb 2014 statement is easy to hold, the realized 8% loss generated in Jan when invested and not successfully trading at cex.io will very likely increase further next month.

* Scenario :
Rent GHs at cex.io in early Jan 2014 and fully re-invest everything mined (merged mined NMC/IXC/DVC is approximated by assuming an additional 2% mining output, as I lack/forgot the exact figure).
Personal prediction :
Progressive and cumulating losses over increasing timeframes, above prices are minimum resale GHs prices to avoid a net loss (negative ROI).

[krampus]

I see a closing price of 0.0344BTC/GHs, turns out we weren't lucky at all. That's about a 8% loss for 1 month based on the original scenario *.

Shocking.

[Efitzhenry]

I think the real value will come when you can switch it to mine other coin pools.

[krampus]

I think the real value will come when you can switch it to mine other coin pools.

Please explain to us why you think that will be have "value".

[neversay]

Wait till Mar and price will drop futhur, with higher difficulty its less likely that the price will go up again.
I sympathise for those who bought 1GHz for 0.07BTC in Dec

[Sonny]

Price is falling down again.
They sold more than 10TH/s yesterday.

It could go up for some short-term fluctuation.
But as the network hashrate grows, difficulty will continue to go up, and the value of 1 GHs will keep dropping.

[Sonny]

I think the real value will come when you can switch it to mine other coin pools.

You understand that the hashrate on cex.io (from Bitfury chips) cannot be used for scrypt-based mining, right?
If so, what do you mean by "real value will come" lol, especially when there is currently 0% mining fee, and merged mining is already done on cex.io ?

[Flinten]

* Scenario :
Rent GHs at cex.io in early Jan 2014 and fully re-invest everything mined (merged mined NMC/IXC/DVC is approximated by assuming an additional 2% mining output, as I lack/forgot the exact figure).

If you always re-invest your mined profit your loss will be 100% at the time the "maintenance fee"="mined coins".

[BorisAlt]

Price is falling down again.
They sold more than 10TH/s yesterday.

It could go up for some short-term fluctuation.
But as the network hashrate grows, difficulty will continue to go up, and the value of 1 GHs will keep dropping.

Agreed. What value will it approach log term? Zero?

[Efitzhenry]

I think the real value will come when you can switch it to mine other coin pools.

You understand that the hashrate on cex.io (from Bitfury chips) cannot be used for scrypt-based mining, right?
If so, what do you mean by "real value will come" lol, especially when there is currently 0% mining fee, and merged mining is already done on cex.io ?

Absolutely but you can point it at other sha coins. That can't be merge mined... So for people that don't have massive amounts of ASICS it would be a value to them. Bitcoin isn't always the most profitable sha coin to mine.....

[L1LK1LLERZ]

I am looking for something as welll

[Sonny]

I think the real value will come when you can switch it to mine other coin pools.

You understand that the hashrate on cex.io (from Bitfury chips) cannot be used for scrypt-based mining, right?
If so, what do you mean by "real value will come" lol, especially when there is currently 0% mining fee, and merged mining is already done on cex.io ?

Absolutely but you can point it at other sha coins. That can't be merge mined... So for people that don't have massive amounts of ASICS it would be a value to them. Bitcoin isn't always the most profitable sha coin to mine.....

If then, it will cause a huge problem to those sha256 altcoins.

With the influx of tons of hashrate to a coin (say, TRC), the diffculty could go up terribly.
After the difficulty readjustment, all those hashrate will be directed to mine another coin, while the block finding will be extremely slow for TRC (very high difficulty, very low hashrate). Transaction will take a very long time to be confirmed, and the coin price will crash terribly or the coin could even die if the situation is real bad.

After all, the mining revenue from mining other sha256 coins will be very low due to the price crash.

[FalconFly]

I just noted from reading somewhere that cex.io drastically increased their maintenance fee since January.

Right now it's at a ludicrous 5.59% (WTF?!) and well above the ~3% that I used for my calculations. If it stays there, rented GHs are becoming even more unprofitable than they already are.

[Sonny]

I just noted from reading somewhere that cex.io drastically increased their maintenance fee since January.

Right now it's at a ludicrous 5.59% (WTF?!) and well above the ~3% that I used for my calculations. If it stays there, rented GHs are becoming even more unprofitable than they already are.

You can find the maintenance fee here, and yes it is now at 5.59%.  
https://cex.io/maintenance

The maintenance fee is estimated as $0.30 / kW x hour: $0.17/kW electricity cost + $0.09 data centre upkeep + $0.04 hardware repair/maintenance.

1 GHS maintenance = $0.00045 / hour

So, when hashrate price goes down, the maintenance fee % will go up.

[Flinten]

The % maintenance fee increases with the difficulty at constant bitcoin price. We will see 6.9% in 3 days.

[FalconFly]

*ouch*

...that means the entire merged mining surplus (NMC/DVC/IXC) doesn't even cover the maintenance fee by a far margin and the cumulative losses from rented GHs will be even far worse than I projected.

[xandriel]

Even if the cost per GH/s stayed the same, some people would moan that they are not making enough profit.

[FalconFly]

Even if the cost per GH/s stayed the same, some people would moan that they are not making enough profit.

Even if the cost per Ghs stayed the same, there still would be no profit to be made
That's the whole story, their ROI is negative right from the start...

But I'm not surprised to read that from a cex.io customer with this Signature :

Want more bitcoin? Build you own cloud miner, today! (Referrer Spam removed)

Honest Translation :

Want to lose money? Build you own cloud miner, today! (someone please click on my Referral link so I get my 3% provision)

[xandriel]

Even if the cost per GH/s stayed the same, some people would moan that they are not making enough profit.

Even if the cost per Ghs stayed the same, there still would be no profit to be made
That's the whole story, their ROI is negative right from the start...

But I'm not surprised to read that from a cex.io customer with this Signature :

Want more bitcoin? Build you own cloud miner, today! (Referrer Spam removed)

Honest Translation :

Want to lose money? Build you own cloud miner, today! (someone please click on my Referral link so I get my 3% provision)

You really have no idea about it...that much is obvious

If the cost per GH/s remained constant, then the mining profit would be the actual profit.
Same as mining with your own hardware but cheaper.

It seems you wouldn't notice a profit if it smacked you in the face

[sickhouse]

So it will go back to 0.045-48 again? It's free BTC aint it after all? Instead of storing it in some third party wallet or have something happend recently?