Just bought GHash's from CEX is that a good idea?

[CaptainGoodVibes]

Hi all , I'm new to the BTC business and came across an ad for buying 1 Ghash for 0.1BTC with CEX.io and they do the mining so I signed up. Is that the way to go?
Thanks

mod note: ref spam removed

[DeathAndTaxes]

Probably not and nobody wants your affiliate spam.

Might have been smart to ask/read first.   $18 per GH is insanely overpriced and you almost certainly will lose 50% to 90% of that unless you find a ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool

[CaptainGoodVibes]

Thanks for the feedback BTC Legend 

[uk1]

dont forget the extra cost
How much is the maintenance fee? When will it be implemented?

    We are planning to implement the maintenance fee starting from November 1st. The amount is still being decided, the approximate cost will be $0.001 per GHS / hour.
https://www.cex.io/faq

signup with my link if you want https://cex.io/r/0/uk1/0/

[OracionSeis]

Dude you have done something seriously bad really really bad! worst ever!

[erre]

cex.io seemed to me a good investment... according to this calculator http://www.coinish.com/calc/, if i buy 1000 mh/s for 18 $ the break-even is 69 days and total income 76$/year, what am i doing wrong?

[DeathAndTaxes]

cex.io seemed to me a good investment... according to this calculator http://www.coinish.com/calc/, if i buy 1000 mh/s for 18 $ the break-even is 69 days and total income 76$/year, what am i doing wrong?

You are assuming difficulty will be flat forever when in reality it is rising >100% per month.

A crude guesstimate @ 100% month over month growth:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/15fb55ff8a

Over the last 90 days it has been closer to 130% month over month growth:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/


A meta question.
If you had a widget which you could sell for $18 but would be worth (residual value + payments) >$36 in 70 days would you sell?  Would anyone?  
Why wouldn't they wait 70 days and double their value?  
If you had a widget you could pawn off on a sucker that at best will produce $16 in gross revenue and more likely produce <$8 would you sell it?
Which scenario seems more like CEX?

[erre]

cex.io seemed to me a good investment... according to this calculator http://www.coinish.com/calc/, if i buy 1000 mh/s for 18 $ the break-even is 69 days and total income 76$/year, what am i doing wrong?

You are assuming difficulty will be flat forever when in reality it is rising >100% per month.

A crude guesstimate @ 100% month over month growth:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/15fb55ff8a

Over the last 90 days it has been closer to 130% month over month growth:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/


A meta question.
If you had a widget which you could sell for $18 but would be worth (residual value + payments) >$36 in 70 days would you sell?  Would anyone?  
Why wouldn't they wait 70 days and double their value?  
If you had a widget you could pawn off on a sucker that at best will produce $16 in gross revenue and more likely produce <$8 would you sell it?
Which scenario seems more like CEX?

shit... over 100% increase? and for at least 6 months?
Regarding the metaquestion: I thought cex.io was about attracting investments and earning BOTH on fees and mining. If they're not mining by their own, you're right

[EccLipSe]

probably you will get 0.07-0.09 btc back in next 3 months. And it'll not make money later on and you'll sell it for almost 0.

[DeathAndTaxes]

shit... over 100% increase? and for at least 6 months?

Probably not but it won't help.  Looking at those estimates just as a ballpark view you see that most of gross revenue will come in the next 2 months and difficulty is almost certainly going to quadruple by the end of the year.   The growth MAY (or may not) slow down after that but by then you are looking at 0.01 BTC per month so even lets say it slows down to only 50% growth per month so you make a couple more months at 0.01 BTC and then a couple more at 0.005 BTC and then a couple more at 0.0025 BTC.  In the long run it doesn't change the gross revenue much.

I would point out that $18 per GH is just insanely overpriced.   It is like saying is a Prius a bad deal at $2,800,00 ea?  Won't I show a profit from the reduced gas consumption?

Miners paying <$5 per GH are unsure if they will show a profit (and they may or may not there are a lot of unknowns).  $18/GH is just taking your money and lighting it on fire hoping it will produce a profit.

[erre]

Clear. Buying from cex.io is not a big idea, unless you're speculating on assetts rather than mining.
But there's no way to buy some hosted mining power? this HAVE TO be cheaper than run the machine by themself.. i see that butterflylab offer 10 "wannabe" GH/s for 10 bucks, but there are many concerns about the delivery time and it sounds like scam...

[favdesu]

Clear. Buying from cex.io is not a big idea, unless you're speculating on assetts rather than mining.
But there's no way to buy some hosted mining power? this HAVE TO be cheaper than run the machine by themself.. i see that butterflylab offer 10 "wannabe" GH/s for 10 bucks, but there are many concerns about the delivery time and it sounds like scam...

you guys should step away from the mining idea. it's over.

[superresistant]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnoTFX7YTCl0dFFFektlRmJ0T0pwRGlvN3pyVHhPVFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Yeah it's a great way to loose 80% of your bitcoins. It's not even a scam, it's the fool's game.

[erre]

you guys should step away from the mining idea. it's over.

Maybe for now. But what's next? If people stop mining, the difficulty will fall again and mining will return to be convenient, or not?
I mean: a lot of people are overinvesting in mining now, so in the next future difficulty could be artificially high because people are mining more than it's convenient to mine... and we'll expect a drop in difficulty in the short time. Am i wrong?

[gamersglory]

you guys should step away from the mining idea. it's over.

Maybe for now. But what's next? If people stop mining, the difficulty will fall again and mining will return to be convenient, or not?
I mean: a lot of people are overinvesting in mining now, so in the next future difficulty could be artificially high because people are mining more than it's convenient to mine... and we'll expect a drop in difficulty in the short time. Am i wrong?

Mining only makes sense now if you are mining in TH/s not MH/s or GH/s. because of the difficulty 

[pontiacg5]

you guys should step away from the mining idea. it's over.

Maybe for now. But what's next? If people stop mining, the difficulty will fall again and mining will return to be convenient, or not?
I mean: a lot of people are overinvesting in mining now, so in the next future difficulty could be artificially high because people are mining more than it's convenient to mine... and we'll expect a drop in difficulty in the short time. Am i wrong?

Mostly wrong, because the electricity cost of the current network hashrate is a lot lower than the BTC/USD exchange rate. Miners likely won't turn hardware off till it's breakeven at best and slightly negative at worst.

Assuming the exchange rate stays steady we've a lot more difficulty to go before current network hardware becomes inefficient. 

[EccLipSe]

mining power will not be decreased. no one stops mining because they make investment for it. So the dificulty will be increased following months and it'll stabilize somewhere. Miners will go on mining but device prices will go down or capasity will be bigger.

Anyway the result is step away mining in following months. Everything will be stabilized later on.

[erre]

Mostly wrong, because the electricity cost of the current network hashrate is a lot lower than the BTC/USD exchange rate. Miners likely won't turn hardware off till it's breakeven at best and slightly negative at worst.

Assuming the exchange rate stays steady we've a lot more difficulty to go before current network hardware becomes inefficient. 

Got it: with ASIC miners and a "strong" BTC, the electricity cost/GH will drop and mining will be money-efficient for a still a long time, but not worth the overpriced hardware unless you start mining today.
Thank you guys, u're helping me a lot in understanding how all of this work.

[lysolcargo]

Unless the Bitcoin difficulty stops growing like this, you may never get a return on your investment.

[monbux]

Well at the current price, no. If it was cheaper then it might be worth your money.

It was.  Just about a week ago the high price was only 0.04 BTC, if you had bought it then, you wouldv'e made quite a lot of dollars.