2013-11-08 WashingtonPost: Everything you need to know about the Bitcoin bubble

[Arvicco]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/11/08/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-bitcoin-bubble/

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[DeathAndTaxes]

I don't agree with every statement but overall pretty balanced coverage.  I am amazed at how far the media has come with Bitcoin.  I mean first it was nothing ... absolutely nothing.  Then it was illogical rants, dubious claims, mocking, etc.  Then it was nothing but hype (fueling bubbles).  We are just starting to get into real coverage now.

I like that he in plain English discounts the fallacy of "everyone will hoard so it will fail because it becomes to valuable" nonsense

As for the idea that the rising value of bitcoins will cause people to hoard Bitcoins rather than spending them, that's based on flawed reasoning. If everyone holding bitcoins expect their value to rise dramatically in the future, then the price will rise now, until some Bitcoin holders are willing to part with their Bitcoins.

[Cubic Earth]

The argument you're referencing, 'that people will hoard for speculative reasons', runs counter to every bit of modern, empirical evidence thus far discovered.  The notion of compound interest is a basic, accepted economic concept, and summarized by the adage "it takes money to make money".  Despite this fact of life, most people seek the short term gains afforded by debt, and suffer as a result.  Therefore, that argument is provably bullshit, and it deeply bothers me to see it published.  Bitcoin has plenty of risks, from frangibility to early adopter-advantage, to that posed by a superior cryptocurrencie.  How about they read up offer some relevant critiques.

tl; dr -  If people actually hoarded appreciating assets, there wouldn't nearly as so much debt and poverty in the world as currently so.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Um the author wasn't making that claim, he was disagreeing with it.

[Cubic Earth]

Shit.  I got lost in some my thoughts and critiqued an article I didn't read.  I had intended only to bash that line of faulty reasoning your referenced that has been frequently published elsewhere.

*Note to self: Read before commenting*

[odolvlobo]

I think the article is well-written and researched, but it is biased. He does clear up much of the FUD and many of the myths, but he spends very little space on how bitcoin could fail and why the price might crash.

[proudhon]

I don't agree with every statement but overall pretty balanced coverage.  I am amazed at how far the media has come with Bitcoin.  I mean first it was nothing ... absolutely nothing.  Then it was illogical rants, dubious claims, mocking, etc.  Then it was nothing but hype (fueling bubbles).  We are just starting to get into real coverage now.

I like that he in plain English discounts the fallacy of "everyone will hoard so it will fail because it becomes to valuable" nonsense

As for the idea that the rising value of bitcoins will cause people to hoard Bitcoins rather than spending them, that's based on flawed reasoning. If everyone holding bitcoins expect their value to rise dramatically in the future, then the price will rise now, until some Bitcoin holders are willing to part with their Bitcoins.

Here's my own personal anecdote.  I actually have been more prone to spend during rally periods than downswings or periods of stability.

[Carlton Banks]

Here's my own personal anecdote.  I actually have been more prone to spend during rally periods than downswings or periods of stability.

Yup, use purchasing power when it looks like it's the best it will be for a while.

There are all sorts of psychological effects from hard currency, I tend to concentrate on never buying somehting useless that won't last (although I tended towards that with fiat, but giving up BTC just has to be a more careful decision). I think cryptocurrency will eventually remove the designed obsolescence from manufactured goods. The fiat system encourages such waste of time, effort and raw materials. When I was a boy, before The War.... etc

[knight22]

Here's my own personal anecdote.  I actually have been more prone to spend during rally periods than downswings or periods of stability.

Yup, use purchasing power when it looks like it's the best it will be for a while.

There are all sorts of psychological effects from hard currency, I tend to concentrate on never buying somehting useless that won't last (although I tended towards that with fiat, but giving up BTC just has to be a more careful decision). I think cryptocurrency will eventually remove the designed obsolescence from manufactured goods. The fiat system encourages such waste of time, effort and raw materials. When I was a boy, before The War.... etc

^^ This

unfortunatly a lot of economists are still confusing massive trash production with good economic growth

[notthematrix]

Why economists fail on understanding Bitcoin?
history was always with a inflationary currency.
This one is a deflationary one that's why all stats will fail here ,, dollar is inflationary since the beginning it was baked by a Limited supply of gold but at that time nobody knew how much this was precisely! and even now we don't know the amount of ounces gold in
planet earth!
But,,, with Bitcoin it will be 21.000.000 so , its a known constant! we are currently at 11925350 BTC so that's also known... and that's why it does what it does.
its the first time in history that we know the total of supply available on forehand to a currency system.

[Cubic Earth]

Here's my own personal anecdote.  I actually have been more prone to spend during rally periods than downswings or periods of stability.

Yup, use purchasing power when it looks like it's the best it will be for a while.

There are all sorts of psychological effects from hard currency, I tend to concentrate on never buying somehting useless that won't last (although I tended towards that with fiat, but giving up BTC just has to be a more careful decision). I think cryptocurrency will eventually remove the designed obsolescence from manufactured goods. The fiat system encourages such waste of time, effort and raw materials. When I was a boy, before The War.... etc

^^ This

unfortunatly a lot of economists are still confusing massive trash production with good economic groth

My biggest dream for bitcoin is not for great personal wealth, but that somehow, through it's deflationary nature, it can help us transition away from an economy based on growth.  At least not growth of pollution, war, population, etc., but perhaps growth of kindness, compassion, logic, understanding.  Ya, I know, I'm dreaming.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

unfortunatly a lot of economists are still confusing massive trash production with good economic growth

Agreed


And I disagree with the author to only look at bitcoin as a payment network, and not as a true currency.

[ShadowOfHarbringer]

Here's my own personal anecdote.  I actually have been more prone to spend during rally periods than downswings or periods of stability.

Yup, use purchasing power when it looks like it's the best it will be for a while.

There are all sorts of psychological effects from hard currency, I tend to concentrate on never buying somehting useless that won't last (although I tended towards that with fiat, but giving up BTC just has to be a more careful decision). I think cryptocurrency will eventually remove the designed obsolescence from manufactured goods. The fiat system encourages such waste of time, effort and raw materials. When I was a boy, before The War.... etc

^^ This

unfortunatly a lot of economists are still confusing massive trash production with good economic groth

My biggest dream for bitcoin is not for great personal wealth, but that somehow, through it's deflationary nature, it can help us transition away from an economy based on growth.  At least not growth of pollution, war, population, etc., but perhaps growth of kindness, compassion, logic, understanding.  Ya, I know, I'm dreaming.

I am thinking for sure Bitcoin could be the beginning of economy based on smart and really meaningful investments.

Inflationary economy = You have to spend or you lose, no choice = A lot of STUPID investments
Deflationary economy = You are not forced to do anything with your money = A lot of SMART investments (people will not waste their money needlesly on stupid ideas because they can earn just by holding them)