We're WAY too CONFIDENT about the current BTC Price. See picture in topic.

[hieroglyph]

I'd say there is much more room to go up before we hit the ceiling for the current bitcoin price.  I do understand where the OP is coming from bur I'd say there are many factors to consider and the main one for me is that Bitcoin is global and many people will want to get a piece of the limited pie.

[rampantparanoia]

Same chart, with red circles:

What in the circles are quite different. papaminer outlined it with the blue circle.

In the April case, the price go straight up, and experienced a reversal when it crash down. In the current case, the trend is the opposite, the upward trend went through a reversal for a few days before it continues to the top - for some speculators, it is a Fibonacci retracement, which is a clear signal to position long and expect continues growth - I didn't buy the Fabonacci concept, but only to show that it is NOT the same.

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/fibonacci-retracements.html

Likely.

[laowai80]

Ok, I know I suck at graphics editing, but I hope I can get my point across.
See the similarities between the point in time where the black arrow is pointing (end of March) and current price pattern? Only this time the scale (both price and time period) is different, pattern is similar to middle of March - end of March, which suggests the price still can at least double from current ~300, but then could also fall back into 200-300 region.

[Pruden]

To me, this is like 5-10 March. Early month, first big correction after huge growth as a consequence of breaking the ATH. Turns out, BTC never went back to 47$ after that.

Oh, and get ready for a fork next week.

[deisik]

I'd like to point out the bubble that burst back in april. It didn't just fall from $266 to $200... it literally tanked. Now I'd like to draw your attention to the right side of this chart... see something similar?

It doesn't look like a bubble at all, rather a price spike carefully managed and operated (for sure, somebody earned a huge deal of money)

[Sitarow]

True. It may be too soon to say, but, I sold today at $360 and it's dropped to about ~$339 soon after.

So you sold on gox? I was wondering who still did that.

No, I'm using gox's chart as a standard. I use Cavirtex.com to trade.

Was it you who sold into the 350 bid wals yesterday morning on VirtEx?
Good call but your buy back in at around $330 instead of $290 shows you still feel that BTC true value vs usd is on the rise.

[hieroglyph]

I don't see how the current bitcoin prices and tulip mania are even slightly similar.  Bitcoin has real value and the tulips value was in the eye of the beholder. 

I've read and article posted in the forum about Yahoo investing into BTC and China adopting BTC recently which for me is pretty bullish.  Not saying the price is where is should be cause I really don't have the TA skills to say but I wouldn't compare it to tulip mania one bit.
 

[perlboy]

Hey Look, I found another 'bubble', all I had to do was use a linear graph:

[ex-trader]

Hey Look, I found another 'bubble', all I had to do was use a linear graph:

I always love Apple vs Bitcoin comparisons, so utterly stupid.

One is a company who has progressively sold more and more products and generated growing real cash profits. The other is a currency basically being bought entirely for speculation, with a small amount of it being actually used for real transactions but that no-one can actually quantify.

[perlboy]

I always love Apple vs Bitcoin comparisons, so utterly stupid.

You know my post was an attempt at satire right?

I was simply trying to point out the silliness of drawing a graph on a linear scale.

[haightst]

Here's the char for the last running 12 months... ending with this month so far:

I'd like to point out the bubble that burst back in april. It didn't just fall from $266 to $200... it literally tanked. Now I'd like to draw your attention to the right side of this chart... see something similar?

http://puu.sh/5cTEH.png

Yep. If you're dealt with bitcoins for a long time, you'll know that history has repeated itself in the past with bitcoin (Remember the first time it hit $28?? haha.. yeah we were all shocked.)

Anyway, be very very very careful.

i noticed we are blasting through 500 like a bump in the road! LOL 

[haightst]

I don't see how the current bitcoin prices and tulip mania are even slightly similar.  Bitcoin has real value and the tulips value was in the eye of the beholder.  

I've read and article posted in the forum about Yahoo investing into BTC and China adopting BTC recently which for me is pretty bullish.  Not saying the price is where is should be cause I really don't have the TA skills to say but I wouldn't compare it to tulip mania one bit.
 

hey now tulips are useful! I'm a horticulturist i love tulips and bitcoins!!! Tulips reached the same price as gold if not higher~ I think /\BTC will go 1200+ very soon! *jmho!*  


http://farm1.static.flickr.com/239/447066807_08b9928d0d.jpg

[ex-trader]

I always love Apple vs Bitcoin comparisons, so utterly stupid.

You know my post was an attempt at satire right?

I was simply trying to point out the silliness of drawing a graph on a linear scale.

No, in which case we're agreed....

[ex-trader]

I don't see how the current bitcoin prices and tulip mania are even slightly similar.  Bitcoin has real value and the tulips value was in the eye of the beholder. 

This has still yet to be proven.

It seems like 99% of Bitcoin use is mining, hoarding and speculation. Finding ways for people who have generated Bitcoins to spend them on more Bitcoin related activities is not an economy.

A Bitcoin economy will properly exist when people who are not miners or speculators are buying or using Bitcoins because they have a real reason to do so by comparison to Fiat, which right now is almost entirely absent. I'm not saying it might happen, but right now it's unproven.

[tutkarz]

I don't see how the current bitcoin prices and tulip mania are even slightly similar.  Bitcoin has real value and the tulips value was in the eye of the beholder.  

This has still yet to be proven.

It seems like 99% of Bitcoin use is mining, hoarding and speculation. Finding ways for people who have generated Bitcoins to spend them on more Bitcoin related activities is not an economy.

A Bitcoin economy will properly exist when people who are not miners or speculators are buying or using Bitcoins because they have a real reason to do so by comparison to Fiat, which right now is almost entirely absent. I'm not saying it might happen, but right now it's unproven.

as with any stock (and bitcoin is one too) people are anticipating future value of the market which also fuels it's growth. I don't know how people like you imagine revolutionary currency is supposed to launch. With all shops accepting it at once the first day of launch or what.
First people have to own currency to shop's accept them as payments.

[ex-trader]

as with any stock (and bitcoin is one too) people are anticipating future value of the market which also fuels it's growth. I don't know how people like you imagine revolutionary currency is supposed to launch. With all shops accepting it at once the first day of launch or what.
First people have to own currency to shop's accept them as payments.

I agree with that. My issue is that Bitcoin trading and speculation is growing and there's been lots of positive announcements about merchants that will take Bitcoins, but little real evidence of growing usage. No one is keen to calculate the stats or promote them because the truth is not good for Bitcoin.

The fact that Bitcoins keep appreciating is also ironically killing Bitcoin usage, since no rational person would spend using Bitcoins as compared to Fiat when they expect their Bitcoins to appreciate and their Fiat to depreciate.

[deisik]

The fact that Bitcoins keep appreciating is also ironically killing Bitcoin usage, since no rational person would spend using Bitcoins as compared to Fiat when they expect their Bitcoins to appreciate and their Fiat to depreciate.

Quite so! That's why deflation is harmful for an economy and to work a currency should be constantly depreciating...

[Carlor]

Lots of people are still WAY too confident in the current value of the US Dollar. Being air funded and all, having Ben Bernanke screwing up beyond belief, I say it's an accident waiting tot happen.

Current USD value is still very high, it may easily fall below 0.001 BTC.

Hehe 

[deisik]

Lots of people are still WAY too confident in the current value of the US Dollar. Being air funded and all, having Ben Bernanke screwing up beyond belief, I say it's an accident waiting tot happen.

Current USD value is still very high, it may easily fall below 0.001 BTC.

Hehe 

I think 1 satoshi for 1 dollar ultimately should be a fair price...

[haightst]

as with any stock (and bitcoin is one too) people are anticipating future value of the market which also fuels it's growth. I don't know how people like you imagine revolutionary currency is supposed to launch. With all shops accepting it at once the first day of launch or what.
First people have to own currency to shop's accept them as payments.

I agree with that. My issue is that Bitcoin trading and speculation is growing and there's been lots of positive announcements about merchants that will take Bitcoins, but little real evidence of growing usage. No one is keen to calculate the stats or promote them because the truth is not good for Bitcoin.

The fact that Bitcoins keep appreciating is also ironically killing Bitcoin usage, since no rational person would spend using Bitcoins as compared to Fiat when they expect their Bitcoins to appreciate and their Fiat to depreciate.

i agree BTCitcoin will largely be hoarded by the elites because it's so secure where the emerging altcurrency markets will be the new gold rush!!! just look @ : LTC/DGC/FTC/TRC/FRK/NET/MST/ASC/ZET etc etcc.. >>>GET IN LOW!!!