Gold/BTC parity guessing game! Guess and win some BTC! (current jackpot: 70mBTC)

[dnaleor]

Hi people,

I have a cool idea: let us guess when 1 BTC equals 1 oz of Gold !!

I open a BTC address and people can send their bets to it by using this format:
ticket price + date in Satoshis
Ticket price is 10 mBTC, so a guess for the 3th of januari 2014 would look like this:
0.01140103 BTC

Every ticket will be added to the jackpot !!

CURRENT PRIZES:

FIRST PLACE: 70 mBTC !!!
SECOND PLACE:    4.64450 mBTC
THIRD PLACE:            2.32225 mBTC


RULES:

§1 Everyone can post guesses. You guess the date in GMT and 1 date can be claimed by only 1 bitcoin address. I will keep a list here.
If a second user/address claims the same date/ammount, this guess will be refunded (minus transaction costs).

§2 You can not guess the "parity date" as the current date or a day in the next 2 weeks (so 14 days total).
For example: When the current GMT date is 2013-11-01 you can not guess/claim 2013-11-01, 2013-11-02, ..., 2013-11-13 and 2013-11-14.
These invalid guesses will also be refunded (minus transaction costs)

§3 We use the USD price on bitcoinaverage.com price (not the global average in USD)
More precisely: the 1min close on BTCaverage should have been at least equal or above the spot gold price at a certain moment in that minute.
We use these charts:
BTC-price: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_minute_24h_sliding_window.csv
Gold-price: http://goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/images/gold_1d_b_o_l_USD.png?0.07548413891345263

§4In case bitcoinaverage.com is not available, we use the bitstamp-price.
In case Bitstamp is not available, we use the BTC-e price.
In case goldprice.org is down, we use xe.com

§5 We use GMT: http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time/scripts/clock-8/runner.php?tz=gmt

§6 The winner (the one who was closest to the actual date) wins all the tickets. If the winning date is at an equal "distance" of 2 guesses, the jackpot will be split amoung them.
The person on the second place wins 50% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
The person on the thrid place wins 25% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
If the jackpot for the first place was split, the person on the third place will receive 75% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
If there is an ex aeqo for the second place, they will both receive 37.5% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.
I keep the remaining 25% of the mBTC paid for the guesses.

§7 Send funds from an address you control (you can sign with it) because the winner will receive his prize on the sending address.

Did you read the rules and accept them? Send your guesses to this address: 1Ge7zgS2H6QmxG7m78rgAKsVbfn92nse3G

[1715566374]

1715566374

[1715566374]

1715566374

[1715566374]

1715566374

[1715566374]

1715566374

[1715566374]

1715566374

[dnaleor]

Claimed dates:
(color indicates the current period in which a certain guess will win the jackpot. If a new bet is placed, this changes)

2014-01-03: 13c6RBxkAoQAdxVTZ7zWtS7B6ehKkdRNQN
2014-01-04: unclaimable
2014-01-05: unclaimable
2014-01-06: unclaimable
2014-01-07: unclaimable
2014-01-08: unclaimable
2014-01-09: unclaimable
2014-01-10: unclaimable
2014-01-11: unclaimable
2014-01-12: unclaimable
2014-01-13: unclaimable
2014-01-14: unclaimable
2014-01-15: unclaimable
2014-01-16: unclaimable
2014-01-17: unclaimable
2014-01-18: unclaimable
2014-01-19: unclaimable
...
2014-06-01: unclaimable
2014-06-02: unclaimable
2014-06-03: unclaimable
2014-06-04: unclaimable
2014-06-05: unclaimable
2014-06-06: unclaimable
2014-06-07: unclaimable
2014-06-08: unclaimable
2014-06-09: unclaimable
2014-06-10: unclaimable
2014-06-11: unclaimable
2014-06-12: unclaimable
2014-06-13: unclaimable
2014-06-14: unclaimable
2014-06-15: unclaimable
2014-06-16: unclaimable
2014-06-17: claimable
2014-06-18: claimable
2014-06-19: claimable
...


This list is updated regulary, but if you want to be sure, check the date on your calendar and check the blockchain for valid guesses

Failed guesses:

2013-11-26: 1Mwbsy6g2fR1DMe1AhDcCeU8Wzoz9NRS6Y
2013-11-29: 1GoLdyKwQaaZLuvqwp5Sy99xAKjHeXG52B
2013-11-30: 1AzTfV5DZ1nxrMcyTTFXEpcAsYWVThAczS
2013-12-01: 19eLe663ao4jVPqzTksz2CnESt5eMX9tQA
2013-12-06: 1EN8153W21Us5APk5vSBM8f9zdWWTGyMDo
2013-12-24: 1M8QuYgCUv6WamZkJhyUJ7NhxcNNDxR1F2

[dnaleor]

PS: I am trusted in the dutch community, so do not worry! I will not steal your funds.
The wallet is created with a brain wallet, and I wrote down the password and kept it in a safe space
(password >50 characters!)

[Pente]

Ok, sounds like fun, I just bet on Xmas eve 


https://blockchain.info/tx/120503421c7e03d1b0410ff694599d37802b27a4935c28bb5820a29aa45f06af

[dnaleor]

Ok, sounds like fun, I just bet on Xmas eve 


https://blockchain.info/tx/120503421c7e03d1b0410ff694599d37802b27a4935c28bb5820a29aa45f06af

already added

If we get 100 participants, you basically get the value of 1 oz of gold as a price!

[dnaleor]

I edited the rules a little, to make it more clear and avoid discussions:

We use the bitcoinaverage.com price (more precisely: the hourly close on BTCaverage should have been at least equal or above the spot gold price at a certain moment in that hour.
We use these charts:
BTC-price: https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts.htm#USD|averages
Gold-price: http://goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/images/gold_1d_b_o_l_USD.png?0.07548413891345263

In case bitcoinaverage.com is not availible, we use the Mt.Gox-price.
In case Mt.Gox is not availible, we use the bitstamp price.
In case goldprice.org is down, we use xe.com

[dnaleor]

Pente, it seems that it will be a bet amoung ourselves, and I fear that you will win

At the time I send my bet, I thought that even the 3th of january was too early, but at this rate...

[Pente]

I hope to see some major coverage of this event in the media. Pretty cool thinking about a bitcoin being worth as much or more than a 1 oz. gold coin. For me, the next milestone will be when a bitcoin is worth a 10 oz. bar of gold. I think I just might buy one for decoration.  

[dnaleor]

I hope to see some major coverage of this event in the media. Pretty cool thinking about a bitcoin being worth as much or more than a 1 oz. gold coin. For me, the next milestone will be when a bitcoin is worth a 10 oz. bar of gold. I think I just might buy one for decoration.  

or as bookend

[mb300sd]

I hope to see some major coverage of this event in the media. Pretty cool thinking about a bitcoin being worth as much or more than a 1 oz. gold coin. For me, the next milestone will be when a bitcoin is worth a 10 oz. bar of gold. I think I just might buy one for decoration. 

The day that happens, I'm buying a 100oz gold bar, and stamping a private key into it as a physical wallet.

[Inedible]

When this date does happen, I believe there'll be much news and fanfare.

You should allow multiple people to bet on the same date. They would just share the pot.

[dnaleor]

When this date does happen, I believe there'll be much news and fanfare.

You should allow multiple people to bet on the same date. They would just share the pot.

hmmm, Pente joined with the current rules, so I dont think I can change them.
And I think it is more exciting to "lock" a date now in stead of allowing different people for the same date.
It is too easy to "guess" the date 24 hours before the actual date.

[dnaleor]

March 17, 2014 before retracing back to around $1000

anybody can guess here, no problem, but if you want to win the prize, you need to send the money. In your case 0.01140317

[Sindelar1938]

In early 2015

[dnaleor]

And... We have a 3th participant!

2013-11-26: 1Mwbsy6g2fR1DMe1AhDcCeU8Wzoz9NRS6Y

[Jeffrey]

What if nobody guesses the right date?

[dnaleor]

What if nobody guesses the right date?

the closest person wins!

(and if 2 people are the same amount of days off, prize will be split off course)

[Parazyd]

Reserved for possible future use.

[dnaleor]

we are getting close again:
goldprice: 1242.70 USD
bitcoinaverage: 826.00 USD

[keewee]

I haven't voted in this, but this voting system seems like it could be used widely. A system where every voter can be verified (if necessary) (through signing the address), fraudulent voting could be eliminated, and the record of the vote is permanently recorded in the blockchain so cannot be altered by a corrupt organisation. Would this work? Or am I missing something here...