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Author Topic: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan  (Read 78493 times)
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September 20, 2015, 12:57:17 AM
 #201

What I'm doing right now is basically using the money that i would otherwise spent it for entertainment and buying other non valued stuff and put it into bitcoin. If it becomes trash one day, the loses wouldn not significantly impact or bring down my whole life.

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September 21, 2015, 11:31:21 PM
 #202

A pretty simple plan is to invest only what you can lose 100% on.

If you can't lose 100% of what you think you want to invest...you probably should invest much much less.

It's your call and no one else's.

Proceed at your own risk.

Yeah, but the SSS plan is NOT only about choosing how much to invest, but also about a plan for raking profits and holding off from raking those profits too soon.. maybe even to take some thinking out of the equation, by creating an investment plan ahead of time, and attempting to stick with such ahead of time created plan.

I personally think that the SSS plan is a good framework for starting to think about possibilities, and that the SSS could pay off really well in some scenarios, but some would call such a plan a bit insane rather than sane to expect mathematical and continued exponential growth in BTC..... especially as some of the big player downward bank manipulators increasingly come into the BTC space.

I have tweaked and personalized the SSS plan in such a way that currently I am dividing my BTC portfolio into 3 portions, but within some of my BTC portions, I will be trading (based on a preset model that I have personalized and is adaptive to my view of the world of bitcoin and the probabilities of certain outcomes), and the other portion of my BTC portfolio, I will be raking as the price goes up (in the event that it does go up, which i am sort of presuming within my plan - even though I am prepared for the scenario that BTC prices may NOT go up (and that is investing no more than I can afford to lose. 

 I concede that the SSS did provide me with some terms in which to think about what I consider to be realistic probabilities within my own plan while allowing savings, trading, and trading only with a portion of my BTC portfolio that assumes that it remains very likely that at some unexpected point, there could be an exponential spurt upward in BTC values that will cause part of my portfolio (that had been sold) to be treated as a rake.








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September 24, 2015, 05:49:28 PM
 #203

A pretty simple plan is to invest only what you can lose 100% on.

If you can't lose 100% of what you think you want to invest...you probably should invest much much less.

It's your call and no one else's.

Proceed at your own risk.

Yeah, but the SSS plan is NOT only about choosing how much to invest, but also about a plan for raking profits and holding off from raking those profits too soon.. maybe even to take some thinking out of the equation, by creating an investment plan ahead of time, and attempting to stick with such ahead of time created plan.

I personally think that the SSS plan is a good framework for starting to think about possibilities, and that the SSS could pay off really well in some scenarios, but some would call such a plan a bit insane rather than sane to expect mathematical and continued exponential growth in BTC..... especially as some of the big player downward bank manipulators increasingly come into the BTC space.

I have tweaked and personalized the SSS plan in such a way that currently I am dividing my BTC portfolio into 3 portions, but within some of my BTC portions, I will be trading (based on a preset model that I have personalized and is adaptive to my view of the world of bitcoin and the probabilities of certain outcomes), and the other portion of my BTC portfolio, I will be raking as the price goes up (in the event that it does go up, which i am sort of presuming within my plan - even though I am prepared for the scenario that BTC prices may NOT go up (and that is investing no more than I can afford to lose. 

 I concede that the SSS did provide me with some terms in which to think about what I consider to be realistic probabilities within my own plan while allowing savings, trading, and trading only with a portion of my BTC portfolio that assumes that it remains very likely that at some unexpected point, there could be an exponential spurt upward in BTC values that will cause part of my portfolio (that had been sold) to be treated as a rake.









After experiencing a couple Bitcoin bubbles and not taking advantage of those rises as well as I should have, I fully understand the need for something like this SSS plan.  It is so easy to get very emotional about buying and selling for some people and I am admittedly one of those people!  I realize now that to really benefit fully it is extremely important to have a plan like this in place in order to make wiser decisions in the future.  The difficult part is just waiting for the next price increase so I can put this plan into practice. Wink

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October 17, 2015, 03:00:44 AM
 #204

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?

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October 17, 2015, 03:32:01 AM
 #205

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight. Wink  I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.

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October 17, 2015, 03:53:11 AM
 #206

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight. Wink  I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.


Even though you have somewhat differing inclinations, working with some kind of plan will probably benefit your sanity considerably to come to some compromise as to the various triggering points.

If I were in your situation (having to share in some of my BTC decision making with another person), then I think that it would be good to play around with the whole matter a bit.

For example, lets say that hypothetically you have 100 BTC between you.  Maybe you could come to some kind of compromise to treat 80% or 80 BTC as subject to joint decisions?  10% or 10 BTC strictly for you to have final determination and 10% 10BTC for him to have final determination. 

Surely you could play around with this, and in the end, you would likely still be sharing all of the proceeds, but you would just allow some additional discretion to each of you to be able to play around with it, and maybe even jokingly be able to say "I told you so."  hahahahaha


You may also be able to learn more about the whole bitcoin experience by dividing it up a bit... and maybe even one of you may be more active than the other... ?  and maybe hahahaha Bitchick's Husband is worried that Bitchick will end up gambling away all of her BTC proceeds (so Bitchick may have to receive a relatively small BTC play allowance).






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October 17, 2015, 07:54:18 AM
 #207

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight. Wink  I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.

Just that you have a plan. If your analysis of the expected value turns negative, my advice is to sell at regular intervals instead of SSS, because then the investment gets sold in your base case (price going down) yet gains are somewhat dollar-averaged in the happy case (price going up).

In other words: SSS should be used so that the rake price points are multiples of original entry point. Otherwise you take the risk yet cap the gains. It is bad luck that if you(s) almost did not hit your rake last time. I did. My first cashout ever in 15 years of investing... Luck plays a role.
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October 17, 2015, 08:51:27 PM
 #208

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight. Wink  I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.

Just that you have a plan. If your analysis of the expected value turns negative, my advice is to sell at regular intervals instead of SSS, because then the investment gets sold in your base case (price going down) yet gains are somewhat dollar-averaged in the happy case (price going up).

In other words: SSS should be used so that the rake price points are multiples of original entry point. Otherwise you take the risk yet cap the gains. It is bad luck that if you(s) almost did not hit your rake last time. I did. My first cashout ever in 15 years of investing... Luck plays a role.

Some of us just get a bit greedy and set the starting point too high (This is what I am guilty of.)  Although I talked hubby out of selling coins on multiple occasions, we did sell some coins off, just to be in the black at about $400, but certainly didn't take advantage of the bubble cycle like we should have, or could have, had we followed the plan a little better.  Emotions are a dangerous thing!  I am learning though, I think. Wink  I really think we should buy some more coins right now, but with too many expenses it really isn't feasible. 

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October 17, 2015, 09:01:55 PM
 #209

I really think we should buy some more coins right now, but with too many expenses it really isn't feasible. 

Buy Monero. If you ever dreamed of having 10,000 BTC, you can now buy 10,000 XMR for about $4k. Not too much, is it?

Total quantity of XMR is about the same as BTC, actually less, so this is a valid comparison.

Then just do the SSS plan methodically from the beginning  Grin
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October 17, 2015, 09:48:22 PM
 #210

I really think we should buy some more coins right now, but with too many expenses it really isn't feasible. 

Buy Monero. If you ever dreamed of having 10,000 BTC, you can now buy 10,000 XMR for about $4k. Not too much, is it?

Total quantity of XMR is about the same as BTC, actually less, so this is a valid comparison.

Then just do the SSS plan methodically from the beginning  Grin

I have thought about it.  I have mentioned it to BitchicksHusband.  Some of us are more "visionary" than others though.  The educated "risk takers" do get the greatest rewards in life. Smiley

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October 17, 2015, 10:01:36 PM
 #211

I really think we should buy some more coins right now, but with too many expenses it really isn't feasible. 

Buy Monero. If you ever dreamed of having 10,000 BTC, you can now buy 10,000 XMR for about $4k. Not too much, is it?

Total quantity of XMR is about the same as BTC, actually less, so this is a valid comparison.

Then just do the SSS plan methodically from the beginning  Grin

I have thought about it.  I have mentioned it to BitchicksHusband.  Some of us are more "visionary" than others though.  The educated "risk takers" do get the greatest rewards in life. Smiley

If you dreamed of having 1,000 BTC, buy 1,000 XMR. Surely you can afford $400?  Roll Eyes It is not even risk. Just set the rake thresholds 10x higher and the end result is just the same.
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October 17, 2015, 10:13:29 PM
 #212

What do you mean with the 10.000 BTC = 10.000 XMR?
You mean it can reach the current Bitcoin price, or that it will reach parity with BTC whatever the BTC price is?
I don't see this at all. I think XMR is a good coin, im invested, but it will never reach parity with BTC. No coin is going to be more valuable than Bitcoin, when sidechains open the gates towards endless possibilities we are going to see some serious shit.

Im sure there is money to be made by selling during bubbles, but it's too hard to know when the price is bubbled. As a long term holder I would easily hold for 5+ years without selling any sensible amount of my stack. It's all or nothing with this. Even Satoshi said so.

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October 17, 2015, 10:34:21 PM
 #213

What do you mean with the 10.000 BTC = 10.000 XMR?
You mean it can reach the current Bitcoin price, or that it will reach parity with BTC whatever the BTC price is?
I don't see this at all. I think XMR is a good coin, im invested, but it will never reach parity with BTC. No coin is going to be more valuable than Bitcoin, when sidechains open the gates towards endless possibilities we are going to see some serious shit.

Im sure there is money to be made by selling during bubbles, but it's too hard to know when the price is bubbled. As a long term holder I would easily hold for 5+ years without selling any sensible amount of my stack. It's all or nothing with this. Even Satoshi said so.

Of course you may think so but the topic of this thread since 2 years ago is a method how to invest in crypto so that you gain from the volatility and stay in black even if the end result is "nothing".

What I mean is that BTC has experienced serious problems with fungibility, regulation etc. and does not have leadership. Price has suffered as a result. A widely disproportionate number of the smartest guys in crypto have moved to Monero, and the opportunity is very much available still - Monero price is about 10-20% of what is was last year. I threw in a 10k to Bitcoin when everyone in our club was buying silver, thinking that diversification can never be bad, and due to that, I am able to write this in the conference room of my castle, looking at the opposite wall 17 meters away. There just isn't anything to lose when you buy Monero (the amount required to scoop the number corresponding to 10,000 BTC is nothing, even less than I paid to enter Bitcoin). If you believe BTC will stay larger that is all fine, silver is also more valuable than Bitcoin marketcapwise, but what counts here is if you make money or not with it.
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October 17, 2015, 10:37:27 PM
 #214

What do you mean with the 10.000 BTC = 10.000 XMR?
You mean it can reach the current Bitcoin price, or that it will reach parity with BTC whatever the BTC price is?
I don't see this at all. I think XMR is a good coin, im invested, but it will never reach parity with BTC. No coin is going to be more valuable than Bitcoin, when sidechains open the gates towards endless possibilities we are going to see some serious shit.

Im sure there is money to be made by selling during bubbles, but it's too hard to know when the price is bubbled. As a long term holder I would easily hold for 5+ years without selling any sensible amount of my stack. It's all or nothing with this. Even Satoshi said so.

Even if you are correct about the "all or nothing" dynamic of bitcoin and its success, that does NOT mean that you invest with "all or nothing" strategies... that would be foolish, because we know that there are going to be ups and downs along the way, and the realities is that you want to be taking out some profits at various times and even incorporating the enjoying of the fruits of your labor and life from time to time...


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October 20, 2015, 04:04:45 PM
 #215

Currently, there appears to be quite a few indicators that BTC prices are transitioning into reversal - meaning that maybe this time for sure we are leaving the fairly long bear market.  Accordingly, it seems even more necessary to prepare for some upward BTC price surges (even though we will likely experience several ups and downs along the way to the moon).

I think that I have created a pretty decent tentative rake plan that draws from concepts in this thread and according to my own individual particulars, and that is going to involve both raking and reinvesting. 

Even though my tentative rake plan is NOT as "simple" as the one set forth by op,  it still borrows fundamental concepts from the principles of projecting ahead and then establishing various criteria and triggering points. 

For me, these criteria are NOT exactly set in stone, but they are pretty solidly predetermined in order that I am able to act quickly when the predetermined BTC price points are triggered. 

My current projected rake plan involves raking approximately 6% the first time when my overall BTC holdings are at approximately 66% profits.  Thereafter, my rake is projected to be 3.3% each time that my BTC portfolio reaches an additional 33% profits.

Furthermore, my rake plan involves completely taking out 50% of the rake proceeds and holding the other 50% of the rake proceeds in a BTC reinvestment fund that will be triggered in approximately three stages (of equal amounts) - in the event that BTC prices subsequently drop 9% then 7% and then 4% (which in essence would cause the total amount of the reinvestment portion of the rake proceeds to be reinvested by the time BTC prices dropped 20% lower than my rake price, if such a drop were to occur).

I would be interested to hear about any other interesting and/or individualized tweaks to the SSS plan that others may have made.






 

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November 02, 2015, 08:54:15 PM
 #216

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight. Wink  I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.

Have you thought about the 50/50 approach. You get 50% of coins to do as you will and so does he. If he sells early and BTC price then drops, he has his money to play with and he can take you out sometimes. If he sells early and BTC goes to the moon, you can let him visit your mansion or join you on trips from time to time.
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November 02, 2015, 08:57:33 PM
 #217

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight. Wink  I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.

Have you thought about the 50/50 approach. You get 50% of coins to do as you will and so does he. If he sells early and BTC price then drops, he has his money to play with and he can take you out sometimes. If he sells early and BTC goes to the moon, you can let him visit your mansion or join you on trips from time to time.

Let him visit my mansion? That makes for a healthy marriage. LOL

I am fine with going with the "plan."  If I had gone with the plan we would most likely have a few more coins to play with now but in reality if and when BTC bubbles in price again we can make some gains just by sticking to the SSS and reinvesting if we choose to on the dips if they happen.  If not then it really isn't a problem.  We have made some gains and it is all good.

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June 05, 2016, 09:23:38 AM
 #218

I think this thread deserves a bump.

A successful man is one who makes more money than his wife can spend. A successful woman is one who can find such a man.
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June 05, 2016, 09:30:52 AM
 #219

I think this thread deserves a bump.

bullish Wink

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July 23, 2016, 06:29:10 PM
 #220

This thread definitely deserves at least a "monthly bump"  Grin

Especially *now* I think, what with the 2nd Halvening successfully behind us (no big price jump yet but at least no big DROP either, and hashpower does not seem to have gone down, so apparently miners are not shutting off machines?) and HOPEFULLY maybe also *finally* a resolution to the block size battle IF next month the alleged chinese rebellion "Terminator" plan somehow forces an update to at least 2mb blocks...?

Remains to be seen, of course, and as always the next "two weeks are critical" LOL

But I'm optimistic that the blocksize problem will be solved one way or another and Honey Badger will then resume upward exponential trajectory.  Hope Hope.

P.S. But, yeah, if not I've personally taken Risto's advice and socked away an equal amount of Monero that I'd have wanted to have already saved in bitcoin: seems to me actually even if BTC does not fail, that of all the altcoins maybe only Monero could find it's own use/niche and also succeed independently.  MaidSafe is also very ambitious and potentially world-changer even outside of the cryptocurrency space alone... but I still have most hope and confidence in BITCOIN
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