Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness.

[Edward50]

First I want to say that I would like If only bears here post. The reason why is I want to get the opinion only of people who think that the current price is unsustainable.

I get plenty of bull reasons on 99% of the other posts. I already know why bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars and how it is going to continue to go up. I am not looking for an argument here or more reasons why the price is cheap from people like this. I was around during the first bubble in 2010 and heard the same reasons as the price went form $30 to $2.00.

What I am curious about is how bitcoin can reach such a high price and actually hold? I would think many people still have coins from when they were single digits or even pennies and would be unloading now to become millionaires.

I also think that there would be a lot of people cashing out at these prices and because the price is so high that the few buyers who would actually buy for $800 could not keep the price up.

Here are some reasons why I think the price may be temporary so high.

1) There seems to be no easy way to cash out large sums of bitcoins. I have read posts where people who want to unload big time can not do it so easily.
2) The people that own bitcoins are just hording them and waiting for the price to go even higher
3) Bitcoins have changed hands so much now that many people who held large quantities of them have sold them already
3) There are a few big money players (or manipulators) who are trying to bring the price to new levels to get higher demand and price in the long run.
4) These same manipulators are trying to get the price to $1000 so that they can split bitcoin up into 1000 mbtc or something.

Does anyone think that the price is unsustainable and there is no way that the demand for these bitcoins can support such a high price? Do you think that eventually when people start cashing out it will drop huge because the demand simply isn't there to support paying off all the people who want to cash out?

I simply can just not believe that the demand for bitcoins is so great right now that they are truly worth $800. I personally have trouble buying bitcoins right now as I have been away from bitcoins for a couple of years.

I am hopefully looking for some like minded individuals who also believe that the current price is unsustainable and simply crazy.

[1715167326]

1715167326

[1715167326]

1715167326

[1715167326]

1715167326

[windjc]

First I want to say that I would like If only bears here post. The reason why is I want to get the opinion only of people who think that the current price is unsustainable.

I get plenty of bull reasons on 99% of the other posts. I already know why bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars and how it is going to continue to go up. I am not looking for an argument here or more reasons why the price is cheap from people like this. I was around during the first bubble in 2010 and heard the same reasons as the price went form $30 to $2.00.

What I am curious about is how bitcoin can reach such a high price and actually hold? I would think many people still have coins from when they were single digits or even pennies and would be unloading now to become millionaires.

I also think that there would be a lot of people cashing out at these prices and because the price is so high that the few buyers who would actually buy for $800 could not keep the price up.

Here are some reasons why I think the price may be temporary so high.

1) There seems to be no easy way to cash out large sums of bitcoins. I have read posts where people who want to unload big time can not do it so easily.
2) The people that own bitcoins are just hording them and waiting for the price to go even higher
3) Bitcoins have changed hands so much now that many people who held large quantities of them have sold them already
3) There are a few big money players (or manipulators) who are trying to bring the price to new levels to get higher demand and price in the long run.
4) These same manipulators are trying to get the price to $1000 so that they can split bitcoin up into 1000 mbtc or something.

Does anyone think that the price is unsustainable and there is no way that the demand for these bitcoins can support such a high price? Do you think that eventually when people start cashing out it will drop huge because the demand simply isn't there to support paying off all the people who want to cash out?

I simply can just not believe that the demand for bitcoins is so great right now that they are truly worth $800. I personally have trouble buying bitcoins right now as I have been away from bitcoins for a couple of years.

I am hopefully looking for some like minded individuals who also believe that the current price is unsustainable and simply crazy.

So basically you JUST want people to respond who agree with you - or more accurately people that will make you FEEL BETTER about not buying bitcoins a few years ago when you heard about them.  What?

Why didn't you buy them then? Maybe it was for the same reasons that you telling yourself you don't want to buy them now. I'm not going to argue your points. Ill just let the "bears" come in and commiserate with you.

But, if you want a REAL discussion, you should welcome it from both sides, imo.

[seriouscoin]

LOL at this thread ....FAIL HARD is your mojo huh ?

/end thread

[Edward50]

If you read my first post correctly, I do not want to get into an argument with you bulls. I read every other post and know your or the bull side very well. I also said bears only, yet you come in and try and scare anyone from posting anything negative about the price and bitcoins.

I would just like to hear from the other side for once.

I personally do not think it is sustainable and want to hear from other like minded people to get some fresh ideas from the other side.

[seriouscoin]

If you read my first post correctly, I do not want to get into an argument with you bulls. I read every other post and know your or the bull side very well. I also said bears only, yet you come in and try and scare anyone from posting anything negative about the price and bitcoins.

I would just like to hear from the other side for once.

I personally do not think it is sustainable and want to hear from other like minded people to get some fresh ideas from the other side.

How can you stand on other side if you're actually like minded? I hope you're just some rare species because i do believe bears are not stupid.

[Edward50]

If you read my first post correctly, I do not want to get into an argument with you bulls. I read every other post and know your or the bull side very well. I also said bears only, yet you come in and try and scare anyone from posting anything negative about the price and bitcoins.

I would just like to hear from the other side for once.

I personally do not think it is sustainable and want to hear from other like minded people to get some fresh ideas from the other side.

How can you stand on other side if you're actually like minded? I hope you're just some rare species because i do believe bears are not stupid.

Good point. It was just a badly written sentence. The other side is really to mean the bear side.

[tunctioncloud]

Its not uncommon to miss Bitcoin advantages and just look at price. Then you think the price can not be real when you could buy 3 year ago just under 1 USD. But the more people use Bitcoin, the higher the price is, because userbase has high value in any business

[firstlast]

HOLY SHIT FUCKING PANIC SELL

I couldn't sell my fucking bitcoins fast enough. I took a bit of a fucking loss.

Stupid fucking mt. gox does not have a stop loss, where I would have sold my coins before the $5.00 wall was broke.

That was intense selling those coins.

Well I gambled. I had my chance to sell above $5.2 all day today. And had my chance to sell at $5.1 just before the drop and my warning.

Now I have a fucking bit coin loss.

I knew better than to hold them, but held them like an idiot. Just look at my last posts when I said multiple times I was selling,

[Edward50]

Its not uncommon to miss Bitcoin advantages and just look at price. Then you think the price can not be real when you could buy 3 year ago just under 1 USD. But the more people use Bitcoin, the higher the price is, because userbase has high value in any business

But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.

In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.

It is hard to see how the demand has grown this much and how the market can support such a high price.

I am totally confused and can not figure out how the value can rise so fast so quickly. Lets face it, the technology is still very new and it is still difficult to even buy bitcoins for more computer savvy people.

Something just does not add up here. I personally believe there is major manipulation in the market right now by very rich players who can move the price easily short term.

[Edward50]

HOLY SHIT FUCKING PANIC SELL

I couldn't sell my fucking bitcoins fast enough. I took a bit of a fucking loss.

Stupid fucking mt. gox does not have a stop loss, where I would have sold my coins before the $5.00 wall was broke.

That was intense selling those coins.

Well I gambled. I had my chance to sell above $5.2 all day today. And had my chance to sell at $5.1 just before the drop and my warning.

Now I have a fucking bit coin loss.

I knew better than to hold them, but held them like an idiot. Just look at my last posts when I said multiple times I was selling,

I was smart to sell those coins. It was not long before bitcoin was at 2.01. I was personally waiting for it to drop to the $1.00 range to buy in again and I was planning on buying in big. Oh well, missed my buy in point but was close enough.

Bitcoins now should be worth more than they were in early 2012 when I wrote that. It has been out longer and the technology tested better. However, the $800 price for a bitcoin is still crazy in my book and unsustainable.

[emanymton]

Its not uncommon to miss Bitcoin advantages and just look at price. Then you think the price can not be real when you could buy 3 year ago just under 1 USD. But the more people use Bitcoin, the higher the price is, because userbase has high value in any business

But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.

In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.

It is hard to see how the demand has grown this much and how the market can support such a high price.

I am totally confused and can not figure out how the value can rise so fast so quickly. Lets face it, the technology is still very new and it is still difficult to even buy bitcoins for more computer savvy people.

Something just does not add up here. I personally believe there is major manipulation in the market right now by very rich players who can move the price easily short term.

I agree with the manipulation. I am afraid we are witnessing a gigantic pump and dump. I really wish I am wrong because if it is the case it will leave bitcoin discredited.

We have been seeing this since the inception of bitcoin.
Truth is that even despite the volatility at this early stage your fear is unfounded because nothing could possibly discredit bitcoin,
with a foundation of cold hard maths, anywhere near as much as fiat with a foundation of greedy bankers.

[zachcope]

HOLY SHIT FUCKING PANIC SELL

I couldn't sell my fucking bitcoins fast enough. I took a bit of a fucking loss.

Stupid fucking mt. gox does not have a stop loss, where I would have sold my coins before the $5.00 wall was broke.

That was intense selling those coins.

Well I gambled. I had my chance to sell above $5.2 all day today. And had my chance to sell at $5.1 just before the drop and my warning.

Now I have a fucking bit coin loss.

I knew better than to hold them, but held them like an idiot. Just look at my last posts when I said multiple times I was selling,

I was smart to sell those coins. It was not long before bitcoin was at 2.01. I was personally waiting for it to drop to the $1.00 range to buy in again and I was planning on buying in big. Oh well, missed my buy in point but was close enough.

Bitcoins now should be worth more than they were in early 2012 when I wrote that. It has been out longer and the technology tested better. However, the $800 price for a bitcoin is still crazy in my book and unsustainable.

I agree, bitcoin at $800 / usd is unsustainable.

Unsustainably low. Wait till some of the 80 billion usd / month new money gets involved. These coins will be seen as cheap cheap yum yum!
BTCBTCBTCBTC
Good luck with the bear love fest!

[Hawker]

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/china-and-the-soaring-price-of-bitcoin.html

When the Chinese can freely buy dollars without buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the coming fall in the Yuan, Bitcoin values will take a big hit.

[Ibian]

Why do threads like this keep popping up? Why is supply and demand so difficult to understand?

[Elwar]

I sold a good chunk of my BTC and have around $30k sitting in my bank account so I would love for the price to plunge.

But I think we are at a sustainable level. Those that wanted to sell at $1,000 have probably already cashed out by now as it is likely close enough for most people.

I do not believe we will go over $1,000 for the moment, we would need momentum to take us over that price point and we no longer have it. A week ago I believed we would shoot up past $1,000 to new territory but even then I believed we would fall back to around this price, right below $1,000.


But...the price does like to drop on bad news. When Silk Road went down the price crashed (before bouncing right back).

So if you are looking to buy back in, make sure you have some buy orders in the $600 and $700 range because a quick reaction to some bad news may create a quick fear sell. But it will be short lived (when the price was sitting at $120 for a long time I had a bunch of buys going all the way down to $82, the price dropped to my bid of $93 before returning up). Though the money I had in the 80s waiting to buy would have done better at $120 than at $500 when I finally made use of those funds.

[BitThink]

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/china-and-the-soaring-price-of-bitcoin.html

When the Chinese can freely buy dollars without buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the coming fall in the Yuan, Bitcoin values will take a big hit.

Buying dollars as hedge of Yuan seems really funny to me. But I agree that BTC is a good hedge.

[GriTBitS]

You think its unattainable because you think 800 is a lot to you. To the rich that realize what bitcoin really is. 800$ is nothing. They buy it up. Implement it as the new standard and then hold the price at the 1m+ range and if you wanna shop at their stores you will pay the bitcoin price. Cash sure you can keep, money in bank yes you can keep, well some. Because the new zirp thats about to sweep over. Look to the banks to charge you interest on your money. So Cash=dangerous. Banks=pay interest. Bitcoin=free storage. But since you don't buy now. Look to being a slave.... Telling everyone around you. I could have been rich, instead of having the balls to be.

[BitThink]

But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.

In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.

Don't look at the absolute value, and look at the percentage instead. Moving $10 to $20 (100%) is huge, but moving $790 to $800 (1.27%) is really nothing.

[maz]

You should have probably made this a self-moderated post if you want to keep it bear only. You will be constantly berated by bulls otherwise.

[sgbett]

The bear argument is just as well understood. There just isn't much of one, so however hard you look you are going to struggle to find some huge insight why you shouldn't buy other than "it could crash anytime". Same could be said about pretty much every financial instrument I can think of.

I'm far bigger bull now than the past few crashes, but of course its once you get complacent that you should worry.

Thats about as serious/bearish as you'll get me though.

Hold for the longest time. Skim a bit when shit gets cash. Don't trade. Works for bears and bulls alike.

[kehtolo]

The bear argument is just as well understood. There just isn't much of one, so however hard you look you are going to struggle to find some huge insight why you shouldn't buy other than "it could crash anytime". Same could be said about pretty much every financial instrument I can think of.

I'm far bigger bull now than the past few crashes, but of course its once you get complacent that you should worry.

Thats about as serious/bearish as you'll get me though.

Hold for the longest time. Skim a bit when shit gets cash. Don't trade. Works for bears and bulls alike.

+1 from me. Great advice.. and true to boot.

[WompRat]

Firstly, I don't really like the terms bull and bear, I would describe myself instead as a skeptical investor, so I hope that qualifies.  There is clearly a lot of exuberance in the crypto market and evidence of herding which are both indicative of a bubble pattern, but I am afraid it is just too early to say if the price is unsustainable.

Bitcoin behaves and is treated a lot like a stock.  If it were it probably would have been split a few times already and you would see a much more palatable price, although one that doesn't change the market cap.  A move to mbtc would presumably be the Bitcoin equivalent of a stock split, but I don't think will catch on for a while.  I will throw in to the mix too that a single share of Bekshire Hathaway trades for over $173,000 and is non divisible, so high stock prices are not unknown and may encourage a longer term outlook.

The market manipulation, if verified, concerns me greatly.  It was a major factor in the collapse of the South Sea bubble and may shatter investor confidence.  The thing that concerns me most though, more than the problems of getting money out, hoarding or volatility, is probably the lack of utility that Bitcoin holds for me.   I never had any qualms about shopping on the Internet in 1994, so I don't consider myself too conservative - I just don't understand why I would want to use my coins to pay for anything.  I also remember that people have been re-inventing digital wallets every few years for decades and they never catch on.  Perhaps it will be different this tine, but perhaps not. Cash has a powerful hold on most people.   I will add though that I have no idea what they do in China, so I concede that foreign markets may be different. 

I was also thinking about the times I have needed a bankers draft or CHAPS payment  - these are the UK terms for a guaranteed immediate exchange of payment.  People often use one or other when buying a house or car.  Bitcoin could potentially be used for these transactions, to avoid bank charges, but then again it is needed so infrequently by most people that the £20-ish charge is tolerable. 

As a last point i would add that with an entirely digital, globally traded entity, Bitcoin may just become the biggest example of an irrational price hike we have yet seen (although I am not saying it is currently irrational).  When one market slows down another may pick up the baton and run with it, prolonging the run for many more years.  This makes it quite unique historically where the crazy has been much more geographically isolated.  Even the dot com boom, although partly global, was largely NASDAQ led. A sustainable level might just be higher than you think.

[BitThink]

But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.

In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.

Don't look at the absolute value, and look at the percentage instead. Moving $10 to $20 (100%) is huge, but moving $790 to $800 (1.27%) is really nothing.

And from $100 to $900 it's 900%.

Yes, you are right. But from $0.001 to $1 is 100000% and from $1 to $100 is 10000%.

[umaOuma]

I believe those who think 800 cannot be real and is unsustainable dont want accept the fact they made bad decision and feel the need to be proven they were right. It is quite normal human behaviour.

[damnek]

The amount of bullish circlejerk is reaching alarming levels, time to get out..

[Tzupy]

IMO the current situation on Gox can have (at least) two possible outcomes:
1. break the resistance and stabilize above 900$, with a new ATH of about 1,300$. (the bullish scenario, although uber-bulls would say 1,800$ or more).
In EW theory terms, the break would be the first sub-sub-wave, followed by a slow uptrend (second) and then the parabolic rise (third) and large drop.
2. failure to break 900$ and stabilize, followed by a large drop.
In EW theory terms, it would mean that now we are at the top of wave B (fake return to bull market), and we can expect several large drops, with rebounds in between.

[Bitsurprise]

Edward

Yes it is unsustainable at these prices and yes it will drop hard but to be honest i don't know where is the top , it could be between 1-2 K , so it isn't that far but we will visit lower prices again that's for sure , BTC price bloated alot within a short period of time at the beginning of the year it was at what $13 so lets get real , i have seen many penny stocks that jump and drop within a short period of time and i've seen some penny stocks jump and make a correction then visit the top again then go sideways -but drifting slowly to the downside - for a long time until it reaches the starting point again 0.0001 , if i've learned one thing in life it would be that making money is hard and getting rich is near impossible , so think of it why would be buying BTC at 800 a sure easy smooth bet ?

[Ibian]

Think I'll get a beartrap for my avatar.

[henryreardon]

from http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bitcoin-heading-toward-high-could-1-million-175818638.html

Right now, because Bitcoin's price is going up, and Bitcoin is in relatively short supply, people are willing to pay almost $1,000 for it. And the ever-increasing demand for Bitcoin will keep driving the price up until people don't want to buy or hold it anymore.

At that point, by the way, unless Bitcoin has become widely accepted as a legal means of exchange (as "money"), the price of Bitcoin will collapse. And anyone who thinks the price of Bitcoin can't collapse all the way to zero is delusional.

I also think the odds are that Bitcoin will probably prove to be a gigantic bubble, like Beanie Babies, Pogs, or, yes, tulip bulbs. Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of bubbles, including:

A good underlying story (the need for a global, electronic, anonymous currency)
A sexy "new-ness" that requires some work to understand
A small and finite supply
A fundamental "value" that is subjective
A high level of risk and excitement associated with trading it
A passionate community of early adherents who are convinced of their own brilliance and lash out defensively at anyone who dares suggest that they are hallucinating. (Don't believe this? Diss Bitcoin on Twitter and see what happens. Bitcoin zealots are more aggressive and sillier than Apple fanboys.)

I have also described some of the major risks that could break the Bitcoin spell and lead to a price collapse. The biggest of these, I think, is that Bitcoin won't ever become widely accepted as a means of exchange — either because governments ban it or because it remains complicated and shadowy.

So, yes, Bitcoin is probably a gigantic bubble that will leave its early religious devotees looking and feeling like fools.

[MAbtc]

The amount of bullish circlejerk is reaching alarming levels, time to get out..

Indeed it is.

We can remain at high-volume circlejerk levels for long periods. Be careful now!

[fleabag]

The pyramid is going to collapse. Way too many bulls now. Someone is going to eventually have to hold the bag.
One reason I think it will fall is because fractional purchases of a full bitcoin should not move the price to the next bid. For example if I want to buy $100 worth of bitcoin the price should not move to the next bid until one full bitcoin is sold. Hypothetically if you have no human investors and only bots, the price will keep going up and up with .00001 buys and sells. so you have a .01 buy at $800 then a .01 buy at $801 .01 buy at $802 etc. but nobody is actually buying a whole coin, so how can there be all this money when the price can be increased buy putting in a $8 buy. Total false price mechanism.

[Ibian]

The only ones holding the bag will be the people with fiat. And at this point, I don't feel sorry for them.

[ElectricMucus]

Who the frack cares if it is sustainable?

[Ibian]

Who the frack cares if it is sustainable?

I kind of do. As little as ten coins could enable most of us to live a nice work-free life for the next 50 years and still have a few millions left over. But only if it doesn't crash in the meanwhile.

[fleabag]

The only ones holding the bag will be the people with fiat. And at this point, I don't feel sorry for them.

Cash is king! I love cold hard fucking cash!

[Ibian]

The only ones holding the bag will be the people with fiat. And at this point, I don't feel sorry for them.

Cash is king! I love cold hard fucking cash!

Me too. I never use plastic except for online stuff. But fiat is gonna crash, it's built into the system. Change is required for financial survival, across all of society including down to the individual level.

[torrentheaven]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits 

[ElectricMucus]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits  

Fractional digits actually, not because I want to buy in at this price, but because the fallout would be hilarious. Still that doesn't affect how I speculate, if it goes up, fine I am a happy as long as I can siphon off fiat, I buy and sell all the time.

[wobber]

Yes it is unsustainable. Think of 4k coins daily and the money needed to buy all of those.

Actually, the price could go up some more or sideways for a few weeks. But bubblepop's time will come... Sadly...

[fleabag]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits 

if this goes to double digits now. its all over

[phelix]

From my models price should be somewhere around $250. I really hope it will go for a stopover on planet earth for some refueling before it goes ttm. The Bitcoin reactor does not yet have the critical mass to self-sustain without media afterburner imho.

We are past the news peak according to Google trends...

[pera]

Yes it is unsustainable. Think of 4k coins daily and the money needed to buy all of those.

Actually, the price could go up some more or sideways for a few weeks. But bubblepop's time will come... Sadly...

I wouldn't say "sadly": since 2011 the price is growing exponentially, that's fantastic, but over the last 40 days we went double exponentially, that's madness, specially without some mass adoption supporting it (where mass adoption means mass use of bitcoin, not mass speculation)

[Overcast]

I don't consider myself a 'bear' or 'bull'. Just an interested onlooker.

A few days ago I listed some of the problems which face BTC here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=344492.0;topicseen

None of my concerns were well-answered.

I am very happy for people who bought at low prices, sold at high prices, and have realised big profits from their investment into cryptocurrency.

At the same time I think that cryptocurrency will prove to be just like regular money in that it ruins more peoples lives than it improves.

How do you think people will feel if and when they have dozens/hundreds/thousands of near-worthless BTC which they *could* have sold for nearly $1000? Or for $10,000 (if it rises that high)? They will be shattered, many probably suicidal.

I imagine that many BTC holders are reading this thinking 'If it collapses, I will get out just before it does'. Do you think the dudes jumping out of buildings on Black Tuesday didn't have the same plan?

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

[Crazy]

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

That's interesting, because I too believe the crash of this bubble will result in the first Bitcoin related suicides.

[ElectricMucus]

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

That's interesting, because I too believe the crash of this bubble will result in the first Bitcoin related suicides.

I sincerely hope not. It would be dramatic.

I am addicted to Internet Drama, of any kind so fuck your ethics!

[Edward50]

We have some good posts going here and it is nice to hear some posts from people who are not ridiculously bullish.

I believe part of the reason why the price is so high is that it is very difficult to cash out bitcoins. If someone wanted to cash out say $200,000 worth of bitcoins then he would have to do a lot of research and may have to do it very slowly. This is causing a lot less sell pressure. There is no way that the Chinese or the bitcoin bulls will spend that kind of fiat dollars buying all those expensive bitcoins from the people who want to cash out.

Once this price boom stalls and starts to creep lower, the mass cashing out will start. That is when a lot of hell will break loose. Anyone holding a large amount of bitcoins are hopefully cashing out at least a small percentage.

I think it will hit $1000 though.

[Crazy]

China and the US markets have essentially decoupled. This is for me, the clearest indication we've reached the apex of this bubble, or close to it. China was leading it, and now speculation is what's causing the US markets to act on their own accord.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits 

Funny how many thin this price is sustainable. I bet they stand a lot to lose which is why they are so delusional



PS
The 52wk low is about $11.89
To an investor rich or poor, this is not the time they will be buying in

[glendall]

My logical mind says 'Yes' and I agree with the OP. But you know what? Every time, every single time, I have doubted Bitcoin's market strength I've been wrong.

I now even bite my tongue when hearing people toss around numbers like $5,000 etc.  Logically I don't think it is sustainable, but ya, I've learnt enough that I'm not going to say it isn't going to happen.

[sgbett]

We have some good posts going here and it is nice to hear some posts from people who are not ridiculously bullish.

I believe part of the reason why the price is so high is that it is very difficult to cash out bitcoins. If someone wanted to cash out say $200,000 worth of bitcoins then he would have to do a lot of research and may have to do it very slowly. This is causing a lot less sell pressure. There is no way that the Chinese or the bitcoin bulls will spend that kind of fiat dollars buying all those expensive bitcoins from the people who want to cash out.

Once this price boom stalls and starts to creep lower, the mass cashing out will start. That is when a lot of hell will break loose. Anyone holding a large amount of bitcoins are hopefully cashing out at least a small percentage.

I think it will hit $1000 though.

This is one of the most difficult issues that I am finding. Whilst I am not nearly there yet, I can't help wondering what to do should that time arise. I was burned back in the day by bitcoinica for several hundred dollars, which was pretty painful. Time moves on though and coins I had left mitigate those losses - after all it was always the wild wild west of bitcoin so I had to expect collateral damage here and there. Fortunately I saw pirate a mile off

That memory makes me worry though, what if I want to cash out just 1 bitcoin right now? I have to put faith in another (as yet still unregulated) exchange to handle equiv. of a thousand dollars? What happens if/when we go up to the next order of magnitude? I really hope, by then, that the words we heard over in the US recently have had some impact on the state of play with legitimacy, accountability and regulation of exchanges. To date I have had no issues with bitstamp, but neither had I any issues with bitcoinica - until I did and then *poof* it all disappears! The pseudonymous nature was an interesting facet to launch with, but it looks to me that it is becoming clear that block chain accountability and auditability significantly undermines any pipe dream of 'anonymity' and really in my opinion those potential benefits are nothing compared to the core property of bitcoin being transparent insomuch as it prevents mismanagement by those in charge of the current monetary system(s) around the world. (Incompetence or intention aside!)

What If I hold a bitcoin until it goes to a million (sounds stupid crazy I know!) how do I get that out, how many questions are gonna be asked by my bank about a $1m international transfer! Sure I'll (reluctantly) pay tax and all that, provided the govt has got its act together figuring out what that should be. I still think its gonna be hairy... not to mention having to transfer $1m through some random eastern european entity!!! Now is regulation and accountability a good thing? I think so.

Real considerations, not quite crystal as of yet (for me at least), but given time who knows?

[pera]

[...]
What If I hold a bitcoin until it goes to a million (sounds stupid crazy I know!) how do I get that out, how many questions are gonna be asked by my bank about a $1m international transfer! Sure I'll (reluctantly) pay tax and all that, provided the govt has got its act together figuring out what that should be. I still think its gonna be hairy... not to mention having to transfer $1m through some random eastern european entity!!! Now is regulation and accountability a good thing? I think so.

Real considerations, not quite crystal as of yet (for me at least), but given time who knows?

Well, I think the problem is not in the price, the problem is the massive speculation: if people panic buy bitcoins just because duh magic money, yes you, me and everyone here have a big problem, but iif the value of bitcoin grows with the price (ie new killer apps, amazing UX in clients, more services, and more commerce) then you will never want fiat again.

This is why I am against to the current price, we are not Western Union nor Paypal, yet. Yes, I know we are better: Bitcoin is an amazing technology, and maybe in three years we will be able to use it almost everywhere, but now we don't even have something like eBay because for some reason Bitmit closed.
I want to see a big correction and go back to the old "slow" exponential growing we had one month ago so we can all focus in more important stuff, like keep bitcoin decentralized, expand the current services and online markets, improve the clients and the protocol, etc.

[BitThink]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits  

Funny how many thin this price is sustainable. I bet they stand a lot to lose which is why they are so delusional



PS
The 52wk low is about $11.89
To an investor rich or poor, this is not the time they will be buying in

It's only possible for BTC to cross $11.89 once, that is if it goes to 0.  Otherwise, you will never see $11.89 any more.  

When paper money is keep printed in a faster and faster rate, people have to invest something to fight with inflation,, no matter it is gold, silver, property, or stock. Now bitcoin is the easiest and safest, besides it is possible be used as currency directly. Therefore, it will only goes to 0 if there's something much better than it is invented. We haven't seen anything close yet. Keep this in you mind, and you can know better the value of BTC.

Those compare BTC with West Union and Paypal miss one big point. West Union and Paypal are dealing with fiat, and they can never help you to survive the inflation. BTC = Paypal + Gold.

[W2014]

Sell a little whenever large numbers of posters in this forum are screaming "to the moon" and other ridiculous slogans after BTC rises 500% in a few weeks.

Buy a lot when it crashes and everyone is declaring BTC a terrible investment.

[BitThink]

Sell a little whenever large numbers of posters in this forum are screaming "to the moon" and other ridiculous slogans after BTC rises 500% in a few weeks.

Buy a lot when it crashes and everyone is declaring BTC a terrible investment.

Then it is still not the time to sell yet. Nobody here really believes BTC will rise 100% (to $2000) soon, and majority of them are just expecting $1000, which is very close already.

[Bitsurprise]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits  

Funny how many thin this price is sustainable. I bet they stand a lot to lose which is why they are so delusional



PS
The 52wk low is about $11.89
To an investor rich or poor, this is not the time they will be buying in

It's only possible for BTC to cross $11.89 once, that is if it goes to 0.  Otherwise, you will never see $11.89 any more.  

When paper money is keep printed in a faster and faster rate, people have to invest something to fight with inflation,, no matter it is gold, silver, property, or stock. Now bitcoin is the easiest and safest, besides it is possible be used as currency directly. Therefore, it will only goes to 0 if there's something much better than it is invented. We haven't seen anything close yet. Keep this in you mind, and you can know better the value of BTC.

Those compare BTC with West Union and Paypal miss one big point. West Union and Paypal are dealing with fiat, and they can never help you to survive the inflation. BTC = Paypal + Gold.

Its not the safest nor the easiest , its risky and may go to zero at some point unlike property and other assets , we're in a bubble but we r in the delusion greed phase right now , so it is understandable to not see that its not easy to see that , nobody knows where is the top , it could be higher but we will visit lower prices at some point that's for sure , taking some profit here is wise take some and keep some , BTC is a man made digital currency , so it is another form of fiat i don't see the difference , the 22 M limit is meaningless ... if i can find binary options on BTC to be lower i would take , i need a binary 0-100 type of options like IGmarkets was used to offer on BTC but unfortunately not anymore ...

[BitThink]

So stock, property are not man-made? Why do you think something has no value because it's man-made? Cash is also man-made.

Holding BTC has only one risk, that is suddenly everyone throw it away and think it is valueless, which I've said only will happen when something much better replaces it. Otherwise, it is much safer than any other investment.

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

[seanneko]

How do you think people will feel if and when they have dozens/hundreds/thousands of near-worthless BTC which they *could* have sold for nearly $1000? Or for $10,000 (if it rises that high)? They will be shattered, many probably suicidal.

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

I disagree. I'm not quite a BTC millionaire yet, but I'm getting there. I am however at the point where I'd be upset if it permanately crashed.

However I don't see it as being "money" until you've sold it and have $ in your hand. Or Bitcoin becomes a currency (despite what some people will try to claim, it's nothing but an investment now).

It's just paper losses. My life will not be affected if Bitcoin crashes. I'll just be back to the same boring guy I was before I ever bought Bitcoin.

[windjc]

How do you think people will feel if and when they have dozens/hundreds/thousands of near-worthless BTC which they *could* have sold for nearly $1000? Or for $10,000 (if it rises that high)? They will be shattered, many probably suicidal.

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

I disagree. I'm not quite a BTC millionaire yet, but I'm getting there. I am however at the point where I'd be upset if it permanately crashed.

However I don't see it as being "money" until you've sold it and have $ in your hand. Or Bitcoin becomes a currency (despite what some people will try to claim, it's nothing but an investment now).

It's just paper losses. My life will not be affected if Bitcoin crashes. I'll just be back to the same boring guy I was before I ever bought Bitcoin.

Not me. I'd slit my hands with my wrists.

Or something like that. 

[Bitsurprise]

So stock, property are not man-made? Why do you think something has no value because it's man-made? Cash is also man-made.

Holding BTC has only one risk, that is suddenly everyone throw it away and think it is valueless, which I've said only will happen when something much better replaces it. Otherwise, it is much safer than any other investment.

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Man made from thin air thats what i meant , and i didn't say it has no value but certainly not 900 , stocks are different you make earnings from it , its business anyway i didn't say go ahead buy stocks it is safe , BTC is risky as an investment especially at these prices and risky as an asset , your wallet may be hacked at anytime , thieves may steal your password under gun threat ... etc it is not safe at all , the general public certainly wouldn't know how to properly secure their coins , and it is not the easiest to use lets face it you have to know how to use the client and dowanload it and then sync it for few days - growing size of GBs - , and then learn how to buy your BTC and verify your exchange account and fund it and then transfer BTC to your wallet and secure it by encrypting your wallet and have a backup and then know how to send and use your coins and how to transfer it to another person and know about fees , confirmations , waiting time ... etc , believe me it is not the easiest to use not for the public anyway , and btw it is not the fastest as they say , CC wins here - speed wise -, most of bitcoiners are hoarders it is currently a speculative asset and should be treated that way .

[kireinaha]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

[windjc]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

If you sold near $1000 its not a bad sell, in so far as you are almost guaranteed that price point will be tested again after the breakout.

However, you will very likely miss out on $200-$600 points in the breakout before it comes back down.

However again, once we break out to 1050 or 1100 we might have a quick retest of $1000 and if that happens, we could see $1600+ before the next correction.

AND again, if all we get is a correction (like we got a week ago) and NOT a full crash, then who knows, we might not see $1000 again. However, I am pretty sure we see it at least once, if just on that initial pullback.

[zoinky]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

Enjoy the profits!

[windjc]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

Enjoy the profits!

Second that!

[Edward50]

So stock, property are not man-made? Why do you think something has no value because it's man-made? Cash is also man-made.

Holding BTC has only one risk, that is suddenly everyone throw it away and think it is valueless, which I've said only will happen when something much better replaces it. Otherwise, it is much safer than any other investment.

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Man made from thin air thats what i meant , and i didn't say it has no value but certainly not 900 , stocks are different you make earnings from it , its business anyway i didn't say go ahead buy stocks it is safe , BTC is risky as an investment especially at these prices and risky as an asset , your wallet may be hacked at anytime , thieves may steal your password under gun threat ... etc it is not safe at all , the general public certainly wouldn't know how to properly secure their coins , and it is not the easiest to use lets face it you have to know how to use the client and dowanload it and then sync it for few days - growing size of GBs - , and then learn how to buy your BTC and verify your exchange account and fund it and then transfer BTC to your wallet and secure it by encrypting your wallet and have a backup and then know how to send and use your coins and how to transfer it to another person and know about fees , confirmations , waiting time ... etc , believe me it is not the easiest to use not for the public anyway , and btw it is not the fastest as they say , CC wins here - speed wise -, most of bitcoiners are hoarders it is currently a speculative asset and should be treated that way .

I agree with what you say here 100%. I must say that I had the same thoughts in 2011/2012 when I could have bought in the $2.00 range. I was actually waiting for it to go to $1.00 to buy big. I actually think the same now. The currency is difficult to use, secure, easy for theft, etc. There is no way the general public could safely use this as currency.

With these same thoughts the price rose from the low I saw of $2.00 to almost $1000.00 in about 2 years. I would never dream of bitcoin rising to the levels it has today.

One thing I that seemed fairly consistent back then was bitcoin price always seemed to fall. Maybe not back to the levels at that time, but to more reasonable levels that the supply/demand support now. Bitcoin is obviously larger than it was 2 years ago, however, I doubt it is exponentially larger.

Some other things I noted recently, since I have practically been away for two years, is that it is so difficult to actually buy bitcoins now. In the past it was much easier, just open a dwolla account, fund mt. gox. Buy your bitcoins and you were set. Now it has been a nightmare to find a exchange that is easy to fund and is trustworthy.  I simply do not see new money flowing into bitcoins very easily and especially at the levels to support a $1000 coin.

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

[MGUK]

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Same with Bitcoin, e.g. most people suggest this big boom is linked to China (politics) and when there's a security breach, or a big arrest (like mt gox fueled crashes in the past, or SR arrest) the price goes down.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Same with Bitcoin, you're betting there's going to be a market for oyu to sell your coins to, you're betting your competitors don't do a huge dump before you do. The fraud an insider trading is even more of a risk with Bitcoin (look at how many exchange have disappeared, look at Fontas on BTC-e)

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

Same with Bitcoin, you have to find a safe exchange, preferably in a stable region with good political ties to whatever country your in. Then you have to get your bank to be okay with you transferring in a massive chunk of fiat from Bitcoin (I know some banks in hte UK wouldn't be comfy with that)

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Betting in a regulated controlled market is far safer than Bitcoin. As someone pointed out, there's nothing stopping allt he various middlemen here running with your money. In a lot of cases, you've not got a leg to stand on with regards to legal recourse in the Bitcoin world. Don't kid yourself, Bitcoin is just as, if not more risky than other proven tried and tested investment options.

[Ibian]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

How? People keep saying this but never explain how.

[medUSA]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

How? People keep saying this but never explain how.

Just like stocks markets, the simplest of all is build a wall of bid and offer on either side of your desired price range

[BitThink]

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Same with Bitcoin, e.g. most people suggest this big boom is linked to China (politics) and when there's a security breach, or a big arrest (like mt gox fueled crashes in the past, or SR arrest) the price goes down.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Same with Bitcoin, you're betting there's going to be a market for oyu to sell your coins to, you're betting your competitors don't do a huge dump before you do. The fraud an insider trading is even more of a risk with Bitcoin (look at how many exchange have disappeared, look at Fontas on BTC-e)

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

Same with Bitcoin, you have to find a safe exchange, preferably in a stable region with good political ties to whatever country your in. Then you have to get your bank to be okay with you transferring in a massive chunk of fiat from Bitcoin (I know some banks in hte UK wouldn't be comfy with that)

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Betting in a regulated controlled market is far safer than Bitcoin. As someone pointed out, there's nothing stopping allt he various middlemen here running with your money. In a lot of cases, you've not got a leg to stand on with regards to legal recourse in the Bitcoin world. Don't kid yourself, Bitcoin is just as, if not more risky than other proven tried and tested investment options.

I am afraid I did not express myself clear enough so forgive me to repeat myself here.

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

I am talking about the value, not the price measured by fiat. The value of BTC only disappears when it is no long used to keep value, just like the silver, which is almost just a useful metal now. If BTC is replaced by a better crypto-currency, then it's value may goes to 0. Otherwise, it is always there. No one will deny using crypto-currency to keep value is a great idea, and once it is accepted by the mainstream it is not reversible.

As we know, one of the big value of bitcoin is its scarce. There's only 21m coins, and that's the key for it to keep its value. Therefore, we buy some when they are still affordable and then keep them to hedge all the fiat inflation risks. That's the investment I mentioned. In this sense, holding BTC is safer and easier than holding stocks, properties, or gold.

Most of what you said above, however, are related to price and trading. That is completely short term and manipulated by whales. Concentrating on the price is speculation, not investment, and is not related to what I am talking.

One more thing to add:
In stead of asking 'is the price of bitcoin sustainable', how about asking 'is the value of fiat sustainable'? I am afraid the latter has much more obvious answer.

[Ibian]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

How? People keep saying this but never explain how.

Just like stocks markets, the simplest of all is build a wall of bid and offer on either side of your desired price range

How would that work in practical terms?

[utarinues]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

Seems easy money to be made by trading, right?
Try it and you will likely be surprised it is not such easy

[MGUK]

...

I am afraid I did not express myself clear enough so forgive me to repeat myself here.

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

I am talking about the value, not the price measured by fiat. The value of BTC only disappears when it is no long used to keep value, just like the silver, which is almost just a useful metal now. If BTC is replaced by a better crypto-currency, then it's value may goes to 0. Otherwise, it is always there. No one will deny using crypto-currency to keep value is a great idea, and once it is accepted by the mainstream it is not reversible.

As we know, one of the big value of bitcoin is its scarce. There's only 21m coins, and that's the key for it to keep its value. Therefore, we buy some when they are still affordable and then keep them to hedge all the fiat inflation risks. That's the investment I mentioned. In this sense, holding BTC is safer and easier than holding stocks, properties, or gold.

Most of what you said above, however, are related to price and trading. That is completely short term and manipulated by whales. Concentrating on the price is speculation, not investment, and is not related to what I am talking.

One more thing to add:
In stead of asking 'is the price of bitcoin sustainable', how about asking 'is the value of fiat sustainable'? I am afraid the latter has much more obvious answer.

Fair play, sorry for misinterpreting.

Let's try again then

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

Gold only has value as long as you can convert it into a currency. A lump of gold on it's own, for the most part, is useless. You can't go into 99% of shops and pay for things in gold, you can't eat it, you can't drink it. So gold is only has value by your definition as long as people are willing to trade it for something that is useful to you (e.g. fiat or food or an xbox.)
The exact same can be said about Bitcoin. It's only useful or has any value if people trade it, otherwise it's just useless hoarding of junk. So you're right, it is similar to gold in that sense.

So no we can look at your original argument that Bitcoin is safer than gold and all others as an investment (which was the point I was refuting in my original post you quoted.)

Gold is a tried and tested investment option (or store of value or whatever you want to call it) in so much as we have a better understanding of what it is, how it works, why it works, who wants it, how much we have, and who wants how much - it's part of our society and culture.

Cryptocurrencies are not. There are numerous things that could collapse the price of cryptos to near 0: a break of ECDSA & SHA-256, revelation that Satoshi & bitcoin = FBI sting, Satoshi dumps 2million coins, the internet stops working, a MtGox, bitstamp and BTCChina get hacked at the sametime and initiate a huge sell (like 2011.) If any of these happened, your cryptocurrencies would not be useful, because people would be considerably less likely to accept them as payment due to technical inadequacy or social stigma.

Society as a hole does not accept cryptocurrencies as valuable by default: e.g. it's not hardcoded into our society like the value of shiny gold. Psychologically, gold will always hold value to a large amount of people because it's part of our history and culture (even more so in other cultures.)

For this reason, I believe it would take a far more radical event to collapse gold to $0 than it would cryptocurrencies. And for that reason, I believe Bitcoin is a higher risk investment than gold.

Sure you can say if we all accepted and understood Bitcoin, then it would be worth something, and that may happen so it's a good investment. But that is pure speculation, and that's not the kind of value we're talking about, right?

[BitThink]

Exactly, I agree with you crypto-currency is not widely accept as store of value as gold yet. That's exactly BTC is still only $1000 now, much lower than the cap of gold. All the risks you mentioned are valid, but actually I think a more serous  threat of BTC is just a new version of crypto currency. This risk is larger than the sum of all the risks you mentioned. However, we don't need to panic, since we will notice it if there's such a new technology. All your concern is that BTC may be dead before accepted by mainstream . It's possible, but more and more unlikely with what happened recently. I think I will bet on it and the odds is not against me.

[Edward50]

Have any of you read some of the posts by the bulls lately. They are all talking about holding and not selling, prices going to 10K. People are discussing taking loans out to buy bitcoins.

Do any of you true bears doubt that a huge correction will come? It seems that we have everybody holding and not selling and this is just driving up the price higher and higher. Why sell when you can sell higher as each day a new higher price is guaranteed. How long can this last if people are not selling and just holding?

I personally think that only a few people will benefit from the higher price as there has to reach a point when people want to cash out and the market will not be able to support such huge cash outs. They money is simply not there. New money is just too hard to transfer in, I am trying to buy some test fractional bitcoins and it is extremely hard dealing and finding exchanges to buy bitcoins. I can not see new people entering bitcoin fast enough to really make a difference.

I am really stumped here  .

[ElectricMucus]

Do any of you true bears doubt that a huge correction will come?

If you are calling a correction you aren't a true bear.
At the end, or as EW followers call it the wave 5-5-5 there would likely be a huge scandal acting as a catalyst to bring on a true collapse. My best tip would be some sort of fraudulent conspiracy which all Bitcoin exchanges, payment processors and funds were and are engaged in, or proof and public acceptance of it.
While I am not fully certain that this is going on I always keep the possibility in mind.

A simple correction like the ones we had before where the price ultimately rises above the peak is a dead certain giveaway. I hope you know to tell apart one and the other.

[psyclon]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits 

if this goes to double digits now. its all over

true that. I would tend to agree with some things said here, however on the other side you have all the investment, the media hype, and of course the chinese. reminds me a bit of how twitter started out with the media.

[Tzupy]

I don't think that some conspiracy is required to crash the price. Just demand and supply, at a certain price level we'll see a lot more supply.

And this is not a 5-5-5 EW, we are way beyond that. We already had 148$, 233$, 378$ (rebound to 395$), 900$ and now we probably are
close to the top of a humongous wave B, due to about 12M$ (on Gox) more than at the top 900$ crash.
The EW theory turned out to be just a particular case, it needs to be rewritten.

[ElectricMucus]

I don't think that some conspiracy is required to crash the price. Just demand and supply, at a certain price level we'll see a lot more supply.

And this is not a 5-5-5 EW, we are way beyond that. We already had 148$, 233$, 378$ (rebound to 395$), 900$ and now we probably are
close to the top of a humongous wave B, due to about 12M$ (on Gox) more than at the top 900$ crash.
The EW theory turned out to be just a particular case, it needs to be rewritten.

I don't quite believe in EW myself, but I do think that how the fundamental valuation based on public perception is described is right.
The catalyst can be many different things, I just gave an example of which I think it would be obvious.

[trumbadera]

Sell a little whenever large numbers of posters in this forum are screaming "to the moon" and other ridiculous slogans after BTC rises 500% in a few weeks.

Buy a lot when it crashes and everyone is declaring BTC a terrible investment.

You was right, $800 was really unsustainable with such demand.

[Bitsurprise]

Have any of you read some of the posts by the bulls lately. They are all talking about holding and not selling, prices going to 10K. People are discussing taking loans out to buy bitcoins.

Do any of you true bears doubt that a huge correction will come? It seems that we have everybody holding and not selling and this is just driving up the price higher and higher. Why sell when you can sell higher as each day a new higher price is guaranteed. How long can this last if people are not selling and just holding?

I personally think that only a few people will benefit from the higher price as there has to reach a point when people want to cash out and the market will not be able to support such huge cash outs. They money is simply not there. New money is just too hard to transfer in, I am trying to buy some test fractional bitcoins and it is extremely hard dealing and finding exchanges to buy bitcoins. I can not see new people entering bitcoin fast enough to really make a difference.

I am really stumped here  .

Hoarding and not selling -by the some or the most- and taking loans to buy at these prices - scared money - infact will trigger bigger selloff , a normal healthy correction from the top is going to happen thats for sure , now when it happens all this scared money and the traders who didnt sell at the top will realize that their wealth is evaporating -20 or 30% correction- , then they will lose patience and start selling as well , thats how panic selling starts , its a domino effect , a normal healthy correction will turn into a bigger selloff .

[GriTBitS]

Well if there is a sell of and all the people borrowing money to get rich sell on the way down for a loss and lose. That is on them. Why invest in something you know nothing about. If you believe in Bitcoin, Which I do regardless of the price. If It goes to .00000001 so be it, ill just buy it up for cheap as hell until someone really realizes the potential and money maker bitcoin is. If you look at the tech and theory behind bitcoin, you will believe in it. No price will let you sell especially some created sell off to spoke the market. If the rich wanted Bitcoin to fail they would allow everyone to buy it super easy. Banks would be offering it and suggesting it. Its hard to get your money transferred and exchanges are being shut down is to keep every that sees the number $1000 and says I cant buy a bitcoin i don't have a $1000. So they will just stay broke.

[GigaCoin]

I've been studying the charts and I actually now agree that this is likely a bubble, a huge slow growing short-term bubble. Doesn't mean we won't see $10,000XBT i still believe we are heading there but on the short-term we may have a 60% correction from bubble peak. At this stage a 60% correction may only mean a price between $600-$900 after which we stabilize there for a while until the next bull run.

Either way i don't think we'll ever see below $500 again.

[waveaddict]

I don't think that some conspiracy is required to crash the price. Just demand and supply, at a certain price level we'll see a lot more supply.

And this is not a 5-5-5 EW, we are way beyond that. We already had 148$, 233$, 378$ (rebound to 395$), 900$ and now we probably are
close to the top of a humongous wave B, due to about 12M$ (on Gox) more than at the top 900$ crash.
The EW theory turned out to be just a particular case, it needs to be rewritten.

Try putting it in the context of a motive extension and things will make sense again. Also you might want to readjust where the impulse begins at. Good Luck!

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm

[AndrewWilliams]

Price rise or go down, day traders are making money either way 

[Open4lies]

Price rise or go down, day traders are making money either way 

Not all day traders and even the successfull ones not everytime.

[CoinCube]

Bitcoin is the perfect asset bubble

1) Take a truly revolutionary idea (cryptocurrency)
2) Apply it to a pyramid scheme https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=341594.0
3) Tell people they will be rich but only if the "have strong hands" and never sell
4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.
5) Sell gradually to all the "strong hands" until the game is up and bitcoin dies at the hands of a better designed rival that is not based on a pyramid

[Ibian]

5) Sell gradually to all the "strong hands" until the game is up and bitcoin dies at the hands of a better designed rival that is not based on a pyramid

This is the interesting bit. How does your "better designed rival" look?

[CoinCube]

I honestly don't know. I am a bitcoin bear I own 0 coins.
The only reason I am in this forum is because I don't want to
miss it when someone smarter then me invents it.

I advise keeping a very close eye on every altcoin that comes out. One of them is likely to be at bitcoin killer. Until such a coin is released bitcoin will probably keep trending up because the narrative is so compelling it disguises the fact that it is in essence a giant pyramid scheme.

[Xenoph0bia]

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  

[CoinCube]

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  

Yes but bitcoin threatens much more then just cash. The Bull argument is that bitcoin is going to be the world currency essentially transferring all the worlds wealth to a few early bitcoin investors.

To someone (even someone with hard assets like gold) this is a threat. Invest in bitcoin or be much poorer in the future.

[Coinseeker]

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  

Yes but bitcoin threatens much more then just cash. The Bull argument is that bitcoin is going to be the world currency essentially transferring all the worlds wealth to a few early bitcoin investors.

To someone (even someone with hard assets like gold) this is a threat. Invest in bitcoin or be much poorer in the future.

People who think that are delusional and in most cases, only speak such ridiculous statements to drive people to buy.  There will always be several world currencies, even if they all became crypto-currencies (doubtful in our lifetime) there still would be hundreds of different currencies to service an ever growing world population.

Is the price sustainable?  Sure it is. $1000 is actually low for what Bitcoin really can be worth.  I'd expect to see many corrections and even crashes along the way but Bitcoin has proven very resilient and as long as there is no "super flaw" in the code or something found (not a tech guy) Bitcoin will be at least one of many major currencies players in the future and could possibly reach $1m or more.  

[CMMPro]

I honestly don't know. I am a bitcoin bear I own 0 coins.
The only reason I am in this forum is because I don't want to
miss it when someone smarter then me invents it.

I advise keeping a very close eye on every altcoin that comes out. One of them is likely to be at bitcoin killer. Until such a coin is released bitcoin will probably keep trending up because the narrative is so compelling it disguises the fact that it is in essence a giant pyramid scheme.

You realize how difficult it would be to be a "bitcoin killer"...I'm guessing not.
Any beneficial characteristic that an alt coin has can be added to bitcoin easily.

If it is so "revolutionary and/or beneficial' adding it to the protocol and getting the miners to adopt it would be a piece of cake.

The bitcoin protocol is not written in stone and can be changed by the dev's as fast as they can code...getting the acceptance of that fork is only as easy as everyone understanding why the change is important or beneficial.

It is a "living" protocol and can evolve instead of being obsoleted....it also has the advantage of being the first and the one with the largest global support network.

[Ibian]

pyramid scheme

We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

[CoinCube]

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  

Yes but bitcoin threatens much more then just cash. The Bull argument is that bitcoin is going to be the world currency essentially transferring all the worlds wealth to a few early bitcoin investors.

To someone (even someone with hard assets like gold) this is a threat. Invest in bitcoin or be much poorer in the future.

People who think that are delusional and in most cases, only speak such ridiculous statements to drive people to buy.  There will always be several world currencies, even if they all became crypto-currencies (doubtful in our lifetime) there still would be hundreds of different currencies to service an ever growing world population.

Is the price sustainable?  Sure it is. $1000 is actually low for what Bitcoin really can be worth.  I'd expect to see many corrections and even crashes along the way but Bitcoin has proven very resilient and as long as there is no "super flaw" in the code or something found (not a tech guy) Bitcoin will be at least one of many major players in the future.

I agree that those people are delusional but that delusion is what is driving
the current price. Is there underlying real value sure mainly due to the ASIC miners which secure
transmissions. How much is that worth? Maybe a lot maybe nothing at all if something better comes along.

[Coinseeker]

4) Threaten people that all their cash will be worthless in the future ie they will lose most of their wealth if they don't invest.

This is true, if you hold more cash than you need, this cash simply loose value over time.
Buy gold or land instead if you dont believe in Bitcoin  

Yes but bitcoin threatens much more then just cash. The Bull argument is that bitcoin is going to be the world currency essentially transferring all the worlds wealth to a few early bitcoin investors.

To someone (even someone with hard assets like gold) this is a threat. Invest in bitcoin or be much poorer in the future.

People who think that are delusional and in most cases, only speak such ridiculous statements to drive people to buy.  There will always be several world currencies, even if they all became crypto-currencies (doubtful in our lifetime) there still would be hundreds of different currencies to service an ever growing world population.

Is the price sustainable?  Sure it is. $1000 is actually low for what Bitcoin really can be worth.  I'd expect to see many corrections and even crashes along the way but Bitcoin has proven very resilient and as long as there is no "super flaw" in the code or something found (not a tech guy) Bitcoin will be at least one of many major players in the future.

I agree that those people are delusional but that delusion is what is driving
the current price. Is there underlying real value sure mainly due to the ASIC miners which secure
transmissions. How much is that worth? Maybe a lot maybe nothing at all if something better comes along.

I bet on Bitcoin to make money.  When I think of the future of our global monetary system, I think Ripple.  IMO, it is superior to Bitcoin (or any blockchain currency) in every way but that's me. Time will tell...the good new is, we are witnessing first hand, the change of global currency.  That in and of itself is worth the price of admission.

[CoinCube]

pyramid scheme

We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme.

Sounds like bitcoin to me. But opinions may differ the link in my post above goes to the huge argument about about bitcoin being a pyramid or not. Not interested in arguing the point.

[CoinCube]

I honestly don't know. I am a bitcoin bear I own 0 coins.
The only reason I am in this forum is because I don't want to
miss it when someone smarter then me invents it.

I advise keeping a very close eye on every altcoin that comes out. One of them is likely to be at bitcoin killer. Until such a coin is released bitcoin will probably keep trending up because the narrative is so compelling it disguises the fact that it is in essence a giant pyramid scheme.

You realize how difficult it would be to be a "bitcoin killer"...I'm guessing not.
Any beneficial characteristic that an alt coin has can be added to bitcoin easily.

If it is so "revolutionary and/or beneficial' adding it to the protocol and getting the miners to adopt it would be a piece of cake.

The bitcoin protocol is not written in stone and can be changed by the dev's as fast as they can code...getting the acceptance of that fork is only as easy as everyone understanding why the change is important or beneficial.

It is a "living" protocol and can evolve instead of being obsoleted....it also has the advantage of being the first and the one with the largest global support network.

I believe bitcoin is flawed enough and the changes required significant enough that bitcoin will not adapt (due to inertia and vested interests) and this will die. If bitcoin radically evolves into a model that I think is sustainable I may change my mind but I think the odds are against it.

[pera]

The only problem with all your arguments is that Bitcoin is just a protocol/specification for a crypto-currency. Bitcoin don't make any promise; actually Satoshi only wrote a paper and programmed the first implementation. Everything else is online communities: this forum, reddit, github, freenode and the trollbox. You can see a lot of people there saying any kind of bullshit, but they are not Bitcoin.
Also, even the exchanges warns you about how risky is buying btcs...

[Ibian]

pyramid scheme

We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme.

Sounds like bitcoin to me. But opinions may differ the link in my post above goes to the huge argument about about bitcoin being a pyramid or not. Not interested in arguing the point.

Still no. You are wrong. Bitcoin is a limited resource, which is what drives the price up. It's not a matter of opinion. It's exactly as much a pyramid scheme as gold. Which is to say, you are wrong.

[wachtwoord]

pyramid scheme

We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme.

Sounds like bitcoin to me. But opinions may differ the link in my post above goes to the huge argument about about bitcoin being a pyramid or not. Not interested in arguing the point.

Still no. You are wrong. Bitcoin is a limited resource, which is what drives the price up. It's not a matter of opinion. It's exactly as much a pyramid scheme as gold. Which is to say, you are wrong.

Not even the Tulip mania was a a pyramid scheme. Just a retarded investment.

[CoinCube]

The only problem with all your arguments is that Bitcoin is just a protocol/specification for a crypto-currency. Bitcoin don't make any promise; actually Satoshi only wrote a paper and programmed the first implementation. Everything else is online communities: this forum, reddit, github, freenode and the trollbox. You can see a lot of people there saying any kind of bullshit, but they are not Bitcoin.
Also, even the exchanges warns you about how risky is buying btcs...

I agree with your statements of fact which are all true. But those facts are largely irrelevant.
The OP asked if bitcoin was sustainable. I argued that it is not. What Satishi promised is not relevant.

[CoinCube]

I have got to go get ready for turkey day folks so will sign off.

OP asked for bears to post their opinion on bitcoin. Not many true bitcoin bears on a bitcoin forum so I wanted to post my thoughts.

Good luck to you all with your investment. I will not be joining you.
Happy Thanksgiving

[AnonyMint]

You realize how difficult it would be to be a "bitcoin killer"...I'm guessing not.
Any beneficial characteristic that an alt coin has can be added to bitcoin easily.

Incorrect.

[CMMPro]

Now I know why your 'ignore' button is so yellow...you seem to be a little manic.

You aren't even close to addressing what I was talking about....you seem to have neither a grasp of how the bitcoin protocol development functions, nor a good grasp on reality.

And now I will add a bit more yellow to that ignore button.

[Bitsurprise]

pyramid scheme

We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme.

Sounds like bitcoin to me. But opinions may differ the link in my post above goes to the huge argument about about bitcoin being a pyramid or not. Not interested in arguing the point.

Still no. You are wrong. Bitcoin is a limited resource, which is what drives the price up. It's not a matter of opinion. It's exactly as much a pyramid scheme as gold. Which is to say, you are wrong.

BTC is not a scam in itself but it is definitely used as a pyramid scheme , limited number of coins means nothing , i can make a coin now with just 1000 coins does that mean i will sell each after few years of marketing for millions ? no , there are maybe 0.5 million LLLL.com domains and most of them sells for low $xx to low $xxx , some goes for much more yes but most can be bought cheap .

[BitThink]

pyramid scheme

We have been over this. No. It does not fit the definition.

A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme.

Sounds like bitcoin to me. But opinions may differ the link in my post above goes to the huge argument about about bitcoin being a pyramid or not. Not interested in arguing the point.

Still no. You are wrong. Bitcoin is a limited resource, which is what drives the price up. It's not a matter of opinion. It's exactly as much a pyramid scheme as gold. Which is to say, you are wrong.

BTC is not a scam in itself but it is definitely used as a pyramid scheme , limited number of coins means nothing , i can make a coin now with just 1000 coins does that mean i will sell each after few years of marketing for millions ? no , there are maybe 0.5 million LLLL.com domains and most of them sells for low $xx to low $xxx , some goes for much more yes but most can be bought cheap .

You answered your own question. The value of BTC relies more on how well people accept it. So in the beginning it worths only $0.001, and it worths much more when more and more people accept it now.   The value of BTC now lies on all the miners, investors, traders, exchanges, public exposures, .... You can of course clone a coin easily, and many others have done it and are still doing it. However, without enough innovations, do you think your coin will receive the similar amount of supports from the community?

[BitcoinTraderFX]

I think a lot of us are spoiled, in the sense that we live in a country where we can reasonably trust our own currency. Note that I said reasonably ; )

There are a lot of countries where their wealth is trapped by their fiat currency. So for them, they don't really care how much bitcoin costs, or what it's worth, it's a means of bypassing their countries barriers to move money.

Now -- that's a lot of money to flow into bitcoin. That alone will sustain bitcoin's rise.

The only thing that can be a problem is if people lose confidence in bitcoin, and triggers a "run on the bank", or "I need to get out." other than simple profit taking (and basic profit taking is really all I see on the charts at this point).

So with heavy money flow in, and still low spending of bitcoin, it has to go up.

: )

cj

[CoinCube]

So with heavy money flow in, and still low spending of bitcoin, it has to go up.

: )

cj

I agree we are just starting to hit the public mania phase of bitcoin.
Probably a little over half way down the pyramid right now.
There will be plenty of "strong hands" to sell to at the bottom.