Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness.

[windjc]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

If you sold near $1000 its not a bad sell, in so far as you are almost guaranteed that price point will be tested again after the breakout.

However, you will very likely miss out on $200-$600 points in the breakout before it comes back down.

However again, once we break out to 1050 or 1100 we might have a quick retest of $1000 and if that happens, we could see $1600+ before the next correction.

AND again, if all we get is a correction (like we got a week ago) and NOT a full crash, then who knows, we might not see $1000 again. However, I am pretty sure we see it at least once, if just on that initial pullback.

[zoinky]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

Enjoy the profits!

[windjc]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble  

Enjoy the profits!

Second that!

[Edward50]

So stock, property are not man-made? Why do you think something has no value because it's man-made? Cash is also man-made.

Holding BTC has only one risk, that is suddenly everyone throw it away and think it is valueless, which I've said only will happen when something much better replaces it. Otherwise, it is much safer than any other investment.

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Man made from thin air thats what i meant , and i didn't say it has no value but certainly not 900 , stocks are different you make earnings from it , its business anyway i didn't say go ahead buy stocks it is safe , BTC is risky as an investment especially at these prices and risky as an asset , your wallet may be hacked at anytime , thieves may steal your password under gun threat ... etc it is not safe at all , the general public certainly wouldn't know how to properly secure their coins , and it is not the easiest to use lets face it you have to know how to use the client and dowanload it and then sync it for few days - growing size of GBs - , and then learn how to buy your BTC and verify your exchange account and fund it and then transfer BTC to your wallet and secure it by encrypting your wallet and have a backup and then know how to send and use your coins and how to transfer it to another person and know about fees , confirmations , waiting time ... etc , believe me it is not the easiest to use not for the public anyway , and btw it is not the fastest as they say , CC wins here - speed wise -, most of bitcoiners are hoarders it is currently a speculative asset and should be treated that way .

I agree with what you say here 100%. I must say that I had the same thoughts in 2011/2012 when I could have bought in the $2.00 range. I was actually waiting for it to go to $1.00 to buy big. I actually think the same now. The currency is difficult to use, secure, easy for theft, etc. There is no way the general public could safely use this as currency.

With these same thoughts the price rose from the low I saw of $2.00 to almost $1000.00 in about 2 years. I would never dream of bitcoin rising to the levels it has today.

One thing I that seemed fairly consistent back then was bitcoin price always seemed to fall. Maybe not back to the levels at that time, but to more reasonable levels that the supply/demand support now. Bitcoin is obviously larger than it was 2 years ago, however, I doubt it is exponentially larger.

Some other things I noted recently, since I have practically been away for two years, is that it is so difficult to actually buy bitcoins now. In the past it was much easier, just open a dwolla account, fund mt. gox. Buy your bitcoins and you were set. Now it has been a nightmare to find a exchange that is easy to fund and is trustworthy.  I simply do not see new money flowing into bitcoins very easily and especially at the levels to support a $1000 coin.

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

[MGUK]

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Same with Bitcoin, e.g. most people suggest this big boom is linked to China (politics) and when there's a security breach, or a big arrest (like mt gox fueled crashes in the past, or SR arrest) the price goes down.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Same with Bitcoin, you're betting there's going to be a market for oyu to sell your coins to, you're betting your competitors don't do a huge dump before you do. The fraud an insider trading is even more of a risk with Bitcoin (look at how many exchange have disappeared, look at Fontas on BTC-e)

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

Same with Bitcoin, you have to find a safe exchange, preferably in a stable region with good political ties to whatever country your in. Then you have to get your bank to be okay with you transferring in a massive chunk of fiat from Bitcoin (I know some banks in hte UK wouldn't be comfy with that)

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Betting in a regulated controlled market is far safer than Bitcoin. As someone pointed out, there's nothing stopping allt he various middlemen here running with your money. In a lot of cases, you've not got a leg to stand on with regards to legal recourse in the Bitcoin world. Don't kid yourself, Bitcoin is just as, if not more risky than other proven tried and tested investment options.

[Ibian]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

How? People keep saying this but never explain how.

[medUSA]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

How? People keep saying this but never explain how.

Just like stocks markets, the simplest of all is build a wall of bid and offer on either side of your desired price range

[BitThink]

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Same with Bitcoin, e.g. most people suggest this big boom is linked to China (politics) and when there's a security breach, or a big arrest (like mt gox fueled crashes in the past, or SR arrest) the price goes down.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Same with Bitcoin, you're betting there's going to be a market for oyu to sell your coins to, you're betting your competitors don't do a huge dump before you do. The fraud an insider trading is even more of a risk with Bitcoin (look at how many exchange have disappeared, look at Fontas on BTC-e)

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

Same with Bitcoin, you have to find a safe exchange, preferably in a stable region with good political ties to whatever country your in. Then you have to get your bank to be okay with you transferring in a massive chunk of fiat from Bitcoin (I know some banks in hte UK wouldn't be comfy with that)

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Betting in a regulated controlled market is far safer than Bitcoin. As someone pointed out, there's nothing stopping allt he various middlemen here running with your money. In a lot of cases, you've not got a leg to stand on with regards to legal recourse in the Bitcoin world. Don't kid yourself, Bitcoin is just as, if not more risky than other proven tried and tested investment options.

I am afraid I did not express myself clear enough so forgive me to repeat myself here.

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

I am talking about the value, not the price measured by fiat. The value of BTC only disappears when it is no long used to keep value, just like the silver, which is almost just a useful metal now. If BTC is replaced by a better crypto-currency, then it's value may goes to 0. Otherwise, it is always there. No one will deny using crypto-currency to keep value is a great idea, and once it is accepted by the mainstream it is not reversible.

As we know, one of the big value of bitcoin is its scarce. There's only 21m coins, and that's the key for it to keep its value. Therefore, we buy some when they are still affordable and then keep them to hedge all the fiat inflation risks. That's the investment I mentioned. In this sense, holding BTC is safer and easier than holding stocks, properties, or gold.

Most of what you said above, however, are related to price and trading. That is completely short term and manipulated by whales. Concentrating on the price is speculation, not investment, and is not related to what I am talking.

One more thing to add:
In stead of asking 'is the price of bitcoin sustainable', how about asking 'is the value of fiat sustainable'? I am afraid the latter has much more obvious answer.

[Ibian]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

How? People keep saying this but never explain how.

Just like stocks markets, the simplest of all is build a wall of bid and offer on either side of your desired price range

How would that work in practical terms?

[utarinues]

It really seems to me that the price is manipulated. The price is always pumped up and then let to fall again. It seems that the manipulated high price is only held so high for so long.

Seems easy money to be made by trading, right?
Try it and you will likely be surprised it is not such easy

[MGUK]

...

I am afraid I did not express myself clear enough so forgive me to repeat myself here.

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

I am talking about the value, not the price measured by fiat. The value of BTC only disappears when it is no long used to keep value, just like the silver, which is almost just a useful metal now. If BTC is replaced by a better crypto-currency, then it's value may goes to 0. Otherwise, it is always there. No one will deny using crypto-currency to keep value is a great idea, and once it is accepted by the mainstream it is not reversible.

As we know, one of the big value of bitcoin is its scarce. There's only 21m coins, and that's the key for it to keep its value. Therefore, we buy some when they are still affordable and then keep them to hedge all the fiat inflation risks. That's the investment I mentioned. In this sense, holding BTC is safer and easier than holding stocks, properties, or gold.

Most of what you said above, however, are related to price and trading. That is completely short term and manipulated by whales. Concentrating on the price is speculation, not investment, and is not related to what I am talking.

One more thing to add:
In stead of asking 'is the price of bitcoin sustainable', how about asking 'is the value of fiat sustainable'? I am afraid the latter has much more obvious answer.

Fair play, sorry for misinterpreting.

Let's try again then

Compared with property and stock, bitcoin is more like gold. That means 1 BTC is always 1 BTC, it will never collapse, burnt, bankrupt, or diluted. So it just like gold, can be a very good way to keep value. In short, you buy BTC and keep them in paper wallet, and after couple of years, its value will not affected by all the inflations, no matter how much paper money has been printed.

Gold only has value as long as you can convert it into a currency. A lump of gold on it's own, for the most part, is useless. You can't go into 99% of shops and pay for things in gold, you can't eat it, you can't drink it. So gold is only has value by your definition as long as people are willing to trade it for something that is useful to you (e.g. fiat or food or an xbox.)
The exact same can be said about Bitcoin. It's only useful or has any value if people trade it, otherwise it's just useless hoarding of junk. So you're right, it is similar to gold in that sense.

So no we can look at your original argument that Bitcoin is safer than gold and all others as an investment (which was the point I was refuting in my original post you quoted.)

Gold is a tried and tested investment option (or store of value or whatever you want to call it) in so much as we have a better understanding of what it is, how it works, why it works, who wants it, how much we have, and who wants how much - it's part of our society and culture.

Cryptocurrencies are not. There are numerous things that could collapse the price of cryptos to near 0: a break of ECDSA & SHA-256, revelation that Satoshi & bitcoin = FBI sting, Satoshi dumps 2million coins, the internet stops working, a MtGox, bitstamp and BTCChina get hacked at the sametime and initiate a huge sell (like 2011.) If any of these happened, your cryptocurrencies would not be useful, because people would be considerably less likely to accept them as payment due to technical inadequacy or social stigma.

Society as a hole does not accept cryptocurrencies as valuable by default: e.g. it's not hardcoded into our society like the value of shiny gold. Psychologically, gold will always hold value to a large amount of people because it's part of our history and culture (even more so in other cultures.)

For this reason, I believe it would take a far more radical event to collapse gold to $0 than it would cryptocurrencies. And for that reason, I believe Bitcoin is a higher risk investment than gold.

Sure you can say if we all accepted and understood Bitcoin, then it would be worth something, and that may happen so it's a good investment. But that is pure speculation, and that's not the kind of value we're talking about, right?

[BitThink]

Exactly, I agree with you crypto-currency is not widely accept as store of value as gold yet. That's exactly BTC is still only $1000 now, much lower than the cap of gold. All the risks you mentioned are valid, but actually I think a more serous  threat of BTC is just a new version of crypto currency. This risk is larger than the sum of all the risks you mentioned. However, we don't need to panic, since we will notice it if there's such a new technology. All your concern is that BTC may be dead before accepted by mainstream . It's possible, but more and more unlikely with what happened recently. I think I will bet on it and the odds is not against me.

[Edward50]

Have any of you read some of the posts by the bulls lately. They are all talking about holding and not selling, prices going to 10K. People are discussing taking loans out to buy bitcoins.

Do any of you true bears doubt that a huge correction will come? It seems that we have everybody holding and not selling and this is just driving up the price higher and higher. Why sell when you can sell higher as each day a new higher price is guaranteed. How long can this last if people are not selling and just holding?

I personally think that only a few people will benefit from the higher price as there has to reach a point when people want to cash out and the market will not be able to support such huge cash outs. They money is simply not there. New money is just too hard to transfer in, I am trying to buy some test fractional bitcoins and it is extremely hard dealing and finding exchanges to buy bitcoins. I can not see new people entering bitcoin fast enough to really make a difference.

I am really stumped here  .

[ElectricMucus]

Do any of you true bears doubt that a huge correction will come?

If you are calling a correction you aren't a true bear.
At the end, or as EW followers call it the wave 5-5-5 there would likely be a huge scandal acting as a catalyst to bring on a true collapse. My best tip would be some sort of fraudulent conspiracy which all Bitcoin exchanges, payment processors and funds were and are engaged in, or proof and public acceptance of it.
While I am not fully certain that this is going on I always keep the possibility in mind.

A simple correction like the ones we had before where the price ultimately rises above the peak is a dead certain giveaway. I hope you know to tell apart one and the other.

[psyclon]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits 

if this goes to double digits now. its all over

true that. I would tend to agree with some things said here, however on the other side you have all the investment, the media hype, and of course the chinese. reminds me a bit of how twitter started out with the media.

[Tzupy]

I don't think that some conspiracy is required to crash the price. Just demand and supply, at a certain price level we'll see a lot more supply.

And this is not a 5-5-5 EW, we are way beyond that. We already had 148$, 233$, 378$ (rebound to 395$), 900$ and now we probably are
close to the top of a humongous wave B, due to about 12M$ (on Gox) more than at the top 900$ crash.
The EW theory turned out to be just a particular case, it needs to be rewritten.

[ElectricMucus]

I don't think that some conspiracy is required to crash the price. Just demand and supply, at a certain price level we'll see a lot more supply.

And this is not a 5-5-5 EW, we are way beyond that. We already had 148$, 233$, 378$ (rebound to 395$), 900$ and now we probably are
close to the top of a humongous wave B, due to about 12M$ (on Gox) more than at the top 900$ crash.
The EW theory turned out to be just a particular case, it needs to be rewritten.

I don't quite believe in EW myself, but I do think that how the fundamental valuation based on public perception is described is right.
The catalyst can be many different things, I just gave an example of which I think it would be obvious.

[trumbadera]

Sell a little whenever large numbers of posters in this forum are screaming "to the moon" and other ridiculous slogans after BTC rises 500% in a few weeks.

Buy a lot when it crashes and everyone is declaring BTC a terrible investment.

You was right, $800 was really unsustainable with such demand.

[Bitsurprise]

Have any of you read some of the posts by the bulls lately. They are all talking about holding and not selling, prices going to 10K. People are discussing taking loans out to buy bitcoins.

Do any of you true bears doubt that a huge correction will come? It seems that we have everybody holding and not selling and this is just driving up the price higher and higher. Why sell when you can sell higher as each day a new higher price is guaranteed. How long can this last if people are not selling and just holding?

I personally think that only a few people will benefit from the higher price as there has to reach a point when people want to cash out and the market will not be able to support such huge cash outs. They money is simply not there. New money is just too hard to transfer in, I am trying to buy some test fractional bitcoins and it is extremely hard dealing and finding exchanges to buy bitcoins. I can not see new people entering bitcoin fast enough to really make a difference.

I am really stumped here  .

Hoarding and not selling -by the some or the most- and taking loans to buy at these prices - scared money - infact will trigger bigger selloff , a normal healthy correction from the top is going to happen thats for sure , now when it happens all this scared money and the traders who didnt sell at the top will realize that their wealth is evaporating -20 or 30% correction- , then they will lose patience and start selling as well , thats how panic selling starts , its a domino effect , a normal healthy correction will turn into a bigger selloff .

[GriTBitS]

Well if there is a sell of and all the people borrowing money to get rich sell on the way down for a loss and lose. That is on them. Why invest in something you know nothing about. If you believe in Bitcoin, Which I do regardless of the price. If It goes to .00000001 so be it, ill just buy it up for cheap as hell until someone really realizes the potential and money maker bitcoin is. If you look at the tech and theory behind bitcoin, you will believe in it. No price will let you sell especially some created sell off to spoke the market. If the rich wanted Bitcoin to fail they would allow everyone to buy it super easy. Banks would be offering it and suggesting it. Its hard to get your money transferred and exchanges are being shut down is to keep every that sees the number $1000 and says I cant buy a bitcoin i don't have a $1000. So they will just stay broke.