Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness.

[phelix]

From my models price should be somewhere around $250. I really hope it will go for a stopover on planet earth for some refueling before it goes ttm. The Bitcoin reactor does not yet have the critical mass to self-sustain without media afterburner imho.

We are past the news peak according to Google trends...

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[pera]

Yes it is unsustainable. Think of 4k coins daily and the money needed to buy all of those.

Actually, the price could go up some more or sideways for a few weeks. But bubblepop's time will come... Sadly...

I wouldn't say "sadly": since 2011 the price is growing exponentially, that's fantastic, but over the last 40 days we went double exponentially, that's madness, specially without some mass adoption supporting it (where mass adoption means mass use of bitcoin, not mass speculation)

[Overcast]

I don't consider myself a 'bear' or 'bull'. Just an interested onlooker.

A few days ago I listed some of the problems which face BTC here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=344492.0;topicseen

None of my concerns were well-answered.

I am very happy for people who bought at low prices, sold at high prices, and have realised big profits from their investment into cryptocurrency.

At the same time I think that cryptocurrency will prove to be just like regular money in that it ruins more peoples lives than it improves.

How do you think people will feel if and when they have dozens/hundreds/thousands of near-worthless BTC which they *could* have sold for nearly $1000? Or for $10,000 (if it rises that high)? They will be shattered, many probably suicidal.

I imagine that many BTC holders are reading this thinking 'If it collapses, I will get out just before it does'. Do you think the dudes jumping out of buildings on Black Tuesday didn't have the same plan?

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

[Crazy]

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

That's interesting, because I too believe the crash of this bubble will result in the first Bitcoin related suicides.

[ElectricMucus]

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

That's interesting, because I too believe the crash of this bubble will result in the first Bitcoin related suicides.

I sincerely hope not. It would be dramatic.

I am addicted to Internet Drama, of any kind so fuck your ethics!

[Edward50]

We have some good posts going here and it is nice to hear some posts from people who are not ridiculously bullish.

I believe part of the reason why the price is so high is that it is very difficult to cash out bitcoins. If someone wanted to cash out say $200,000 worth of bitcoins then he would have to do a lot of research and may have to do it very slowly. This is causing a lot less sell pressure. There is no way that the Chinese or the bitcoin bulls will spend that kind of fiat dollars buying all those expensive bitcoins from the people who want to cash out.

Once this price boom stalls and starts to creep lower, the mass cashing out will start. That is when a lot of hell will break loose. Anyone holding a large amount of bitcoins are hopefully cashing out at least a small percentage.

I think it will hit $1000 though.

[Crazy]

China and the US markets have essentially decoupled. This is for me, the clearest indication we've reached the apex of this bubble, or close to it. China was leading it, and now speculation is what's causing the US markets to act on their own accord.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits 

Funny how many thin this price is sustainable. I bet they stand a lot to lose which is why they are so delusional



PS
The 52wk low is about $11.89
To an investor rich or poor, this is not the time they will be buying in

[glendall]

My logical mind says 'Yes' and I agree with the OP. But you know what? Every time, every single time, I have doubted Bitcoin's market strength I've been wrong.

I now even bite my tongue when hearing people toss around numbers like $5,000 etc.  Logically I don't think it is sustainable, but ya, I've learnt enough that I'm not going to say it isn't going to happen.

[sgbett]

We have some good posts going here and it is nice to hear some posts from people who are not ridiculously bullish.

I believe part of the reason why the price is so high is that it is very difficult to cash out bitcoins. If someone wanted to cash out say $200,000 worth of bitcoins then he would have to do a lot of research and may have to do it very slowly. This is causing a lot less sell pressure. There is no way that the Chinese or the bitcoin bulls will spend that kind of fiat dollars buying all those expensive bitcoins from the people who want to cash out.

Once this price boom stalls and starts to creep lower, the mass cashing out will start. That is when a lot of hell will break loose. Anyone holding a large amount of bitcoins are hopefully cashing out at least a small percentage.

I think it will hit $1000 though.

This is one of the most difficult issues that I am finding. Whilst I am not nearly there yet, I can't help wondering what to do should that time arise. I was burned back in the day by bitcoinica for several hundred dollars, which was pretty painful. Time moves on though and coins I had left mitigate those losses - after all it was always the wild wild west of bitcoin so I had to expect collateral damage here and there. Fortunately I saw pirate a mile off

That memory makes me worry though, what if I want to cash out just 1 bitcoin right now? I have to put faith in another (as yet still unregulated) exchange to handle equiv. of a thousand dollars? What happens if/when we go up to the next order of magnitude? I really hope, by then, that the words we heard over in the US recently have had some impact on the state of play with legitimacy, accountability and regulation of exchanges. To date I have had no issues with bitstamp, but neither had I any issues with bitcoinica - until I did and then *poof* it all disappears! The pseudonymous nature was an interesting facet to launch with, but it looks to me that it is becoming clear that block chain accountability and auditability significantly undermines any pipe dream of 'anonymity' and really in my opinion those potential benefits are nothing compared to the core property of bitcoin being transparent insomuch as it prevents mismanagement by those in charge of the current monetary system(s) around the world. (Incompetence or intention aside!)

What If I hold a bitcoin until it goes to a million (sounds stupid crazy I know!) how do I get that out, how many questions are gonna be asked by my bank about a $1m international transfer! Sure I'll (reluctantly) pay tax and all that, provided the govt has got its act together figuring out what that should be. I still think its gonna be hairy... not to mention having to transfer $1m through some random eastern european entity!!! Now is regulation and accountability a good thing? I think so.

Real considerations, not quite crystal as of yet (for me at least), but given time who knows?

[pera]

[...]
What If I hold a bitcoin until it goes to a million (sounds stupid crazy I know!) how do I get that out, how many questions are gonna be asked by my bank about a $1m international transfer! Sure I'll (reluctantly) pay tax and all that, provided the govt has got its act together figuring out what that should be. I still think its gonna be hairy... not to mention having to transfer $1m through some random eastern european entity!!! Now is regulation and accountability a good thing? I think so.

Real considerations, not quite crystal as of yet (for me at least), but given time who knows?

Well, I think the problem is not in the price, the problem is the massive speculation: if people panic buy bitcoins just because duh magic money, yes you, me and everyone here have a big problem, but iif the value of bitcoin grows with the price (ie new killer apps, amazing UX in clients, more services, and more commerce) then you will never want fiat again.

This is why I am against to the current price, we are not Western Union nor Paypal, yet. Yes, I know we are better: Bitcoin is an amazing technology, and maybe in three years we will be able to use it almost everywhere, but now we don't even have something like eBay because for some reason Bitmit closed.
I want to see a big correction and go back to the old "slow" exponential growing we had one month ago so we can all focus in more important stuff, like keep bitcoin decentralized, expand the current services and online markets, improve the clients and the protocol, etc.

[BitThink]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits  

Funny how many thin this price is sustainable. I bet they stand a lot to lose which is why they are so delusional



PS
The 52wk low is about $11.89
To an investor rich or poor, this is not the time they will be buying in

It's only possible for BTC to cross $11.89 once, that is if it goes to 0.  Otherwise, you will never see $11.89 any more.  

When paper money is keep printed in a faster and faster rate, people have to invest something to fight with inflation,, no matter it is gold, silver, property, or stock. Now bitcoin is the easiest and safest, besides it is possible be used as currency directly. Therefore, it will only goes to 0 if there's something much better than it is invented. We haven't seen anything close yet. Keep this in you mind, and you can know better the value of BTC.

Those compare BTC with West Union and Paypal miss one big point. West Union and Paypal are dealing with fiat, and they can never help you to survive the inflation. BTC = Paypal + Gold.

[W2014]

Sell a little whenever large numbers of posters in this forum are screaming "to the moon" and other ridiculous slogans after BTC rises 500% in a few weeks.

Buy a lot when it crashes and everyone is declaring BTC a terrible investment.

[BitThink]

Sell a little whenever large numbers of posters in this forum are screaming "to the moon" and other ridiculous slogans after BTC rises 500% in a few weeks.

Buy a lot when it crashes and everyone is declaring BTC a terrible investment.

Then it is still not the time to sell yet. Nobody here really believes BTC will rise 100% (to $2000) soon, and majority of them are just expecting $1000, which is very close already.

[Bitsurprise]

Funny how many think this price is unsustainable. I bet they hope for huge crash to two digits  

Funny how many thin this price is sustainable. I bet they stand a lot to lose which is why they are so delusional



PS
The 52wk low is about $11.89
To an investor rich or poor, this is not the time they will be buying in

It's only possible for BTC to cross $11.89 once, that is if it goes to 0.  Otherwise, you will never see $11.89 any more.  

When paper money is keep printed in a faster and faster rate, people have to invest something to fight with inflation,, no matter it is gold, silver, property, or stock. Now bitcoin is the easiest and safest, besides it is possible be used as currency directly. Therefore, it will only goes to 0 if there's something much better than it is invented. We haven't seen anything close yet. Keep this in you mind, and you can know better the value of BTC.

Those compare BTC with West Union and Paypal miss one big point. West Union and Paypal are dealing with fiat, and they can never help you to survive the inflation. BTC = Paypal + Gold.

Its not the safest nor the easiest , its risky and may go to zero at some point unlike property and other assets , we're in a bubble but we r in the delusion greed phase right now , so it is understandable to not see that its not easy to see that , nobody knows where is the top , it could be higher but we will visit lower prices at some point that's for sure , taking some profit here is wise take some and keep some , BTC is a man made digital currency , so it is another form of fiat i don't see the difference , the 22 M limit is meaningless ... if i can find binary options on BTC to be lower i would take , i need a binary 0-100 type of options like IGmarkets was used to offer on BTC but unfortunately not anymore ...

[BitThink]

So stock, property are not man-made? Why do you think something has no value because it's man-made? Cash is also man-made.

Holding BTC has only one risk, that is suddenly everyone throw it away and think it is valueless, which I've said only will happen when something much better replaces it. Otherwise, it is much safer than any other investment.

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

[seanneko]

How do you think people will feel if and when they have dozens/hundreds/thousands of near-worthless BTC which they *could* have sold for nearly $1000? Or for $10,000 (if it rises that high)? They will be shattered, many probably suicidal.

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

I disagree. I'm not quite a BTC millionaire yet, but I'm getting there. I am however at the point where I'd be upset if it permanately crashed.

However I don't see it as being "money" until you've sold it and have $ in your hand. Or Bitcoin becomes a currency (despite what some people will try to claim, it's nothing but an investment now).

It's just paper losses. My life will not be affected if Bitcoin crashes. I'll just be back to the same boring guy I was before I ever bought Bitcoin.

[windjc]

How do you think people will feel if and when they have dozens/hundreds/thousands of near-worthless BTC which they *could* have sold for nearly $1000? Or for $10,000 (if it rises that high)? They will be shattered, many probably suicidal.

When BTC collapses it will do so quickly and countless online millionaires will suddenly be online bums. This will not be easy for them to take.

I disagree. I'm not quite a BTC millionaire yet, but I'm getting there. I am however at the point where I'd be upset if it permanately crashed.

However I don't see it as being "money" until you've sold it and have $ in your hand. Or Bitcoin becomes a currency (despite what some people will try to claim, it's nothing but an investment now).

It's just paper losses. My life will not be affected if Bitcoin crashes. I'll just be back to the same boring guy I was before I ever bought Bitcoin.

Not me. I'd slit my hands with my wrists.

Or something like that. 

[Bitsurprise]

So stock, property are not man-made? Why do you think something has no value because it's man-made? Cash is also man-made.

Holding BTC has only one risk, that is suddenly everyone throw it away and think it is valueless, which I've said only will happen when something much better replaces it. Otherwise, it is much safer than any other investment.

Buying property, you are betting on the politics, economy, security, and many other things on the location of your property. You have to worry about the earthquake, fire, flood, storm, hurricane, or typhoon.

Buying stock, you are betting on the market, competitors, the leadership of the CEO, and many others. Moreover, you have to worry about insider-trading and fraud in accounting.

Buying gold or silver, you have to find a safe place to store them and then you need to find a safe place to sell if you want cash.

I believe now you will agree with me why I said investing on BTC is the safest and the easiest.

That said, I'm not saying it is risk-free. It is highly risky, but investing on anything is risky, and holding fiat without investing is even more risky.

Man made from thin air thats what i meant , and i didn't say it has no value but certainly not 900 , stocks are different you make earnings from it , its business anyway i didn't say go ahead buy stocks it is safe , BTC is risky as an investment especially at these prices and risky as an asset , your wallet may be hacked at anytime , thieves may steal your password under gun threat ... etc it is not safe at all , the general public certainly wouldn't know how to properly secure their coins , and it is not the easiest to use lets face it you have to know how to use the client and dowanload it and then sync it for few days - growing size of GBs - , and then learn how to buy your BTC and verify your exchange account and fund it and then transfer BTC to your wallet and secure it by encrypting your wallet and have a backup and then know how to send and use your coins and how to transfer it to another person and know about fees , confirmations , waiting time ... etc , believe me it is not the easiest to use not for the public anyway , and btw it is not the fastest as they say , CC wins here - speed wise -, most of bitcoiners are hoarders it is currently a speculative asset and should be treated that way .

[kireinaha]

I sold the remainder of my holdings earlier today, incredibly right when it was at the ATH on Gox. No regrets, I think I actually made the right call this time. See you all on the other side of the bubble