[CLOSED]#KN-R001 3TH/s Neptune KnCMiner, ord. #K27-BFYW-014072, PAID

[patriks]

I agree with LDR.  Also have very few shares but at the current BTC price an ROI in BTC would be nice.  I second a refund.

[1714157911]

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[1714157911]

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[SolarWindMiningCompany]

I had considered asking if anyone was interested in refunding the Neptune, but hadn't decided yet whether I was going to or not. There are a few things that we should consider:

1. KnCMiner has, thus far, been very good about sticking to their commitment to "under promise and over deliver."

2. They have already indicated that their design will be not 30%, but 40% more energy efficient than the previous generation of KnC's ASIC chip.

3. KnC tapped-out their chip design in late Feb. They originally promised a Q1/Q2 delivery date, so they are still within the time frame promised for delivery of the Neptunes.

4. And, they have packed more cores into their design than they originally planned (1440 cores is the latest that I have heard) which likely means more hashing power than originally promised.

How these facts play out is yet to be seen. I am curious to see what their "Plan B" will actually provide. At first, they stated that they would provide 3TH/s of mining power via hosted mining free of charge for Neptune customers if there was a delay in shipping. My only question is, will KnC compensate for any increase in the Neptunes actual hashing power at the time of shipping? Now on that subject, a later news release stated that Neptune customers could convert to 3TH/s worth of hosted mining, without mentioning whether or not you would still be able to get your miner if you wanted it. It would create a sh@t-storm of pissed of Neptune customers if the take the free hosted mining conversion option at 3TH/s if the Neptunes ship out actually running at 4-6TH/s and KnC doesn't match that hashing rate for those customers.

I might be willing to convert everyone's contracts into the SWMC Hashing Echange, Wasps or something similar if you guys want to refund the Neptune, there is a good chance that the price per GH/s will be close to the same or, more likely, lower than what we paid for the Neptune assuming that the actual hashrate of the Neptune remains around 3TH/s. (I'll convert the hashing power to you at near cost if you want to roll those funds into the SWMC Hashing Exchange. [EDIT: Oh yes, I forgot to mention that I have set aside 25% of all future trading fees to be paid to anyone who participates in the development of SWMC's Hashing Exchange, that includes coding work or financial support. By rolling over the Neptune funds into SWMC's Hashing Exchange, you will be early adopters and you would fit into the financial support category, therefore you would receive a portion of that 25%. (for life) ])

In any case, I am willing to work something out with all of you if there is consensus.

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

I agree with LDR.  Also have very few shares but at the current BTC price an ROI in BTC would be nice.  I second a refund.

If the Neptunes hashrate is significantly higher than the originally promised 3TH/s, the return in BTC could be as high as 19-36 BTC. With a refund, we might meet ROI in fiat, but there will only be a slight increase in BTC. (Actually, there might be a loss for some since the exchange value for BTC was so volatile when payments were made, that there was a significant loss of value (in fiat) during the transaction time when those payments were processed. I actually had to subsidize the Neptune purchase with my own money in order to have enough. Wasn't planning on telling you guys this because I'm working towards a long term goal, but it seems appropriate to let you know now.)

I thought it would be helpful to get a good idea about the actual numbers involved (or an estimation at least) in making a decision.

I used the Jupiter stats to calculate a rough estimate of what we might expect the Neptunes hashrate to be by core count.

Jupiter: 550 GH/s / 768 cores = 716 MH/s per core

Neptune: 4 chips * 1440 cores * 716 MH/s per core = 4.125 TH/s

Remember, most Jupiters where exceeding the 550 GH/s and were actually hashing at ~600 GH/s

Jupiter: 600 GH/s / 768 cores = 781 MH/s per core

Neptune: 4 chips * 1440 cores * 781 MH/s per core = 4.5 TH/s

The Genesis Block estimation:

IF Neptune Hashrate = 4.125 TH/s

Starting in March: ROI reached within the first 30 days - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 19.7 BTC by October, Total BTC = 34.7
Starting in April: ROI reached in June - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 3.8 BTC by October, Total BTC = 18.8

If Neptune Hashrate = 4.5 TH/s

Starting in March: ROI reached within the first 30 days - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 22.9 BTC by October, Total BTC = 37.9
Starting in April: ROI reached in June - 15 BTC (original price of Neptune) + 3.8 5.7 BTC by October, Total BTC = 20.7

At the current exchange rate of $659.97 we could purchase just over 19 BTC. That changes dramatically, down to only 15.3 BTC, if the exchange rate of BTC to USD is closer to $850 when we receive a refund. As you can see, worst case scenario, it is likely that we will have a net sum difference of just a little more BTC (~0.3-0.4?) if we were fortunate enough to get a refund in time (or at a time) to exchange the funds for BTC at ~$660.

Estimation of Potential Gain with refund: Negligible

Estimation of Loss Potential with refund: Minimal

Estimation of Potential Gain if Neptune kept: Significant

Estimation of Loss Potential: (likely) Negligible

(Of course, things change fast. We don't yet know exactly how "Plan B" will compensate Neptune customers. And we don't know if KnC will be able to increase the 20nm chips hashing power at a higher percentage than they were able to do with Jupiters 28nm chips.)

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

We're getting closer to the Wasp A1 rollout!

The initial bring up 2 Chip Wasp A1 in hand... pick and place and re-flow ongoing.

[speth]

I'm the person that James mentioned earlier that would like to sell some of my full shares.  I have about 4 shares (30 GH/s per share) that I'd like to sell for $160 each.  Please PM me if interested.

[dan244]

Any Updates?

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

Nothing from KnC thus far.

Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App

[Zska]

Hello partners!

my opinion is we should take a risk and wait for miner to arrive.
We all took a risk already, when we participated to this project, so I think canceling order is giving up.
What BTC scene needs is TRUST.

This is just my opinion, feel free to disagree.

And THANKS James for all your work!

Zska

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

Hello partners!

my opinion is we should take a risk and wait for miner to arrive.
We all took a risk already, when we participated to this project, so I think canceling order is giving up.
What BTC scene needs is TRUST.

This is just my opinion, feel free to disagree.

And THANKS James for all your work!

Zska

Thanks Zska for the encouraging words and I agree with you.

[gamefixer]

subbed.

[xTachibana]

i agree, albeit this is a sunk cost fallacy, i like to believe that this isnt sunk yet (as in 100% we're not going to make roi at all), even if we got a refund, what would we use it on? scrypt miners? investing into the infrastructure for the hashing exchange? theres only so much we can do

on those points

scrypt miners are here, difficulty will go up, prices will go down and everyone in gpu mining is going to switch to scrypt n (i should probably set my 2 mhash to some scrypt n coins, im thinking the prices for those will rise since asics cant mine them)

as for investing into the hashing exchange, i believe that is going to be completely with or without the extra investment, plus we (the investors) already get 25% of the trading fee's because of the roll over that SWMC talked about

i just really hope the miner comes soon so we can finally see some "profit"

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

i agree, albeit this is a sunk cost fallacy, i like to believe that this isnt sunk yet (as in 100% we're not going to make roi at all), even if we got a refund, what would we use it on? scrypt miners? investing into the infrastructure for the hashing exchange? theres only so much we can do

on those points

scrypt miners are here, difficulty will go up, prices will go down and everyone in gpu mining is going to switch to scrypt n (i should probably set my 2 mhash to some scrypt n coins, im thinking the prices for those will rise since asics cant mine them)

as for investing into the hashing exchange, i believe that is going to be completely with or without the extra investment, plus we (the investors) already get 25% of the trading fee's because of the roll over that SWMC talked about

i just really hope the miner comes soon so we can finally see some "profit"

The sunk cost fallacy would only apply if the goal of purchasing the Neptune was to ROI in dollars rather than BTC. With the caveat that the actual mining hash of the Neptune is at least 4.5'ish TH/s and the Neptune arrives in the early part of April, the total BTC mined will exceed our BTC investment approximately by a minimum of 5 BTC (this is assuming that there are no additional factors that arise that will have a strong impact on the difficulty level, whether in our favor or not.)

[xTachibana]

i agree, albeit this is a sunk cost fallacy, i like to believe that this isnt sunk yet (as in 100% we're not going to make roi at all), even if we got a refund, what would we use it on? scrypt miners? investing into the infrastructure for the hashing exchange? theres only so much we can do

on those points

scrypt miners are here, difficulty will go up, prices will go down and everyone in gpu mining is going to switch to scrypt n (i should probably set my 2 mhash to some scrypt n coins, im thinking the prices for those will rise since asics cant mine them)

as for investing into the hashing exchange, i believe that is going to be completely with or without the extra investment, plus we (the investors) already get 25% of the trading fee's because of the roll over that SWMC talked about

i just really hope the miner comes soon so we can finally see some "profit"

The sunk cost fallacy would only apply if the goal of purchasing the Neptune was to ROI in dollars rather than BTC. With the caveat that the actual mining hash of the Neptune is at least 4.5'ish TH/s and the Neptune arrives in the early part of April, the total BTC mined will exceed our BTC investment approximately by a minimum of 5 BTC (this is assuming that there are no additional factors that arise that will have a strong impact on the difficulty level, whether in our favor or not.)

oh they increased the hash from 3 to 4.5? i didnt know XD

[railzand]

'early part of April' lol
last day of June, more like.

[railzand]

A refund, please.

We'd be nuts to keep this pretence up.

If not, anyone want my share?

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

oh they increased the hash from 3 to 4.5? i didnt know XD

No, 4.5 TH/s is just my estimation using KnC's Jupiter specs.

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

Here is the latest update from KnC: https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-83

[xTachibana]

Here is the latest update from KnC: https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-83

still no dates for shipping from them huh

[SolarWindMiningCompany]

Just found this NEWS RELEASE from KnCMiner, all Neptune customers from the first and second batch will receive a second Neptune FOR FREE!!

That means that we will receive a total minimum of 6 TH/s, if my estimate of 4.5 TH/s is correct we will receive ~9-10 TH/s in total .

 

Neptune performance upgrade
4/28/2014 6:48:00 PM
KnCMiner Offers Two-for-One Deal on Bitcoin Mining’s Most Powerful Machine to Loyal Customers
 
 
STOCKHOLM, DATE, 2014 — KnCMiner (https://www.kncminer.com/), the most trusted brand in Bitcoin mining, announced today that it will give every current customer who has an outstanding order for a machine from its Neptune line’s first two batches a free Neptune from its upcoming “third batch” of Neptunes. This represents a $5,995 value and, perhaps more importantly, will provide KnCMiner’s most loyal customers with twice the hashing power they would have otherwise received with just one of these machines.
 
“We know that it is getting tougher to successfully mine in this environment and we want our customers to have every advantage we can give them,” said KnCMiner CEO Sam Cole. “So to combat the downward trend in mining returns for the customers who have been with us right from the beginning, and to show our competition we mean business, we will be over-delivering again on all orders.”
 
Neptune is KnCMiner’s first 20nm product. It features a minimum of 3,000 GH/s (aka 3 TH/s) of hashing speed, five times faster than the company’s most recent bestselling miner, the Jupiter. It also boasts a 30 percent reduction in watts-per-GH. Thanks to KnCMiner’s offer, each customer who ordered a first or second batch Neptune, will get a minimum 6TH for each order, with their original 3TH product shipped in June and the free “third batch” machine delivered in August.
 
“As miners face growing competition, and the increasing difficulty to mine Bitcoin, we will keep working on creative and unorthodox ways to put the best and most loyal customers on the planet first and provide them with the competitive edge they’ve come to expect from KnCMiner,” said Cole.
 
The company has recently announced other initiatives to engage all form of cryptominers, including the launch of a “Mini Neptune” machine (1500 GH/s, $3,495), and for all those Litecoin and Dogecoin enthusiasts, the availability of scrypt miners—the Titan (300 MH/s, $9,995) and “Mini Titan” (150 MH/s, $5,495). KnCMiner also offers cloud-hosted mining participation to existing customers. To learn more about these products and services, please visit https://www.kncminer.com.
 
About KnC
KnCMiner is the most trusted brand in Bitcoin mining. The company specializes in building leading-edge hardware that secures transactions for the distributed Bitcoin network and other digital currency pools like Litecoin and Dogecoin. KnCMiner offers a range of goods and services that allow for all levels of cryptomining participation, large and small. The company was founded in 2013 by Sam Cole, Marcus Erlandsson, Andreas Kennemar and Michael Unnebäck after the merger of ORSoC AB and Kennemar & Cole AB. The company’s leadership team has almost 30 years worth of experience in bringing excellent services and products to the global market. For more information, please visit https://www.kncminer.com.

[darcimer]

Excellent news Solar..  I know it's been a painful wait, but so far it seems like every manufacturer has had issues, and I've learned the virtue of patience.
What are your plans on dividing the extra hashing power between the shares? 
(Note: I read the news release to to be that the extra unit will come from the third batch, so it's doubtful they arrive together.)