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Author Topic: [Mpex.co] The Scientology of Bitcoin Finance?  (Read 27394 times)
Peter Lambert
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February 18, 2014, 11:56:55 PM
 #261

OK, I am not sure where to ask this question, this seems like as good a place as any?

Is there an easy way to access the bid/ask prices of the MPEx assets? What I want is a way to dump the values into a python script?

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February 19, 2014, 01:14:37 AM
 #262

OK, I am not sure where to ask this question, this seems like as good a place as any?

Is there an easy way to access the bid/ask prices of the MPEx assets? What I want is a way to dump the values into a python script?

http://mpex.co/mpex-mktdepth.php

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February 19, 2014, 02:01:22 PM
 #263

OK, I am not sure where to ask this question, this seems like as good a place as any?

Is there an easy way to access the bid/ask prices of the MPEx assets? What I want is a way to dump the values into a python script?

http://mpex.co/mpex-mktdepth.php

Awesome, thanks.

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Peter Lambert
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March 05, 2014, 05:47:25 PM
 #264

Am I calculating it right that S.MPOE has a P/E of about 8.5 for the past month? (.00083/(12*.000081) That seems pretty reasonable.

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March 05, 2014, 06:02:56 PM
 #265

Am I calculating it right that S.MPOE has a P/E of about 8.5 for the past month? (.00083/(12*.000081) That seems pretty reasonable.

Last month was a little special I'd say Cheesy

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March 05, 2014, 06:32:21 PM
 #266

Last month was a little special I'd say Cheesy

Very nice to read the follow up to the story. Wink

In case someone is interested:

http://trilema.com/2014/mpoe-february-2014-statement/

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March 06, 2014, 04:49:05 PM
 #267

Very nice to read the follow up to the story. Wink

In case someone is interested:

http://trilema.com/2014/mpoe-february-2014-statement/

Too funny. Despite the incoherence of his blog post, at least MP has finally stepped up and conceded the incompetence of his former approach to options market making. For finally admitting that and quitting the business of options market making without being adequately prepared, he deserves a positive acknowledgement.

It's ironic that it was just a few months ago I warned about the risks of MP's approach to market making and even spelled it out for MP's PR lackey, but since she seems to have trouble with words of more than two syllables, all we got in return at the time was an unflattering spectacle of her flailing about in her own misunderstandings. Fortunately, MP's actions in quitting the business speak louder even than the PR lackey.

Now back to something more interesting.

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March 06, 2014, 05:02:12 PM
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Too funny. Despite the incoherence of his blog post, at least MP has finally stepped up and conceded the incompetence of his former approach to options market making. For finally admitting that and quitting the business of options market making without being adequately prepared, he deserves a positive acknowledgement.

It's ironic that it was just a few months ago I warned about the risks of MP's approach to market making and even spelled it out for MP's PR lackey, but since she seems to have trouble with words of more than two syllables, all we got in return at the time was an unflattering spectacle of her flailing about in her own misunderstandings. Fortunately, MP's actions in quitting the business speak louder even than the PR lackey.

Now back to something more interesting.

What are you, stupid or something?

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March 06, 2014, 07:57:11 PM
 #269

So did mpex just remove the sole source of revenue other than registration fees?

For a second I thought this scam might last a few more months.
Peter Lambert
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March 06, 2014, 08:12:08 PM
 #270

So did mpex just remove the sole source of revenue other than registration fees?

For a second I thought this scam might last a few more months.

There is still the trading fee.

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March 06, 2014, 08:42:19 PM
 #271

So did mpex just remove the sole source of revenue other than registration fees?

For a second I thought this scam might last a few more months.

There is still the trading fee.

Ah, so this million btc valued company will now be earning a staggering few hundred satoshis a year(assuming there is still anyone using it).

So with options removed is mpex now a full blown ponzi?

I guess it is still debatable while the futures market exists even though nobody uses it. I doubt it will be removed only because then mpex would literally fit the textbook definition of a ponzi scheme instead of hiding behind a disguise.
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March 06, 2014, 10:08:05 PM
 #272

So did mpex just remove the sole source of revenue other than registration fees?

For a second I thought this scam might last a few more months.

There is still the trading fee.

Ah, so this million btc valued company will now be earning a staggering few hundred satoshis a year(assuming there is still anyone using it).

So with options removed is mpex now a full blown ponzi?

I guess it is still debatable while the futures market exists even though nobody uses it. I doubt it will be removed only because then mpex would literally fit the textbook definition of a ponzi scheme instead of hiding behind a disguise.

Yes, if you go by just the amount of trading done right now, and a PE of 10 you would get a price of 0.0000086 (compare to the current price of about 0.00086, that is a difference of two orders of magnitude). But the system which MPEx has set up is secure and useful, so it is reasonable to expect the amount of trade to go up in the future.


Edit: My calculation: 36010 (monthly volume) * 12 (months) * 0.002 (trading fee) * 10 (PE estimate) / 1 billion shares

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March 06, 2014, 11:41:14 PM
 #273

Yes, if you go by just the amount of trading done right now, and a PE of 10 you would get a price of 0.0000086 (compare to the current price of about 0.00086, that is a difference of two orders of magnitude). But the system which MPEx has set up is secure and useful, so it is reasonable to expect the amount of trade to go up in the future.


Edit: My calculation: 36010 (monthly volume) * 12 (months) * 0.002 (trading fee) * 10 (PE estimate) / 1 billion shares

Alternatively, and perhaps much more rationally, 0.00086 (share price) / 36010 (monthly volume) / 12 (months) / 0.002 (trading fee) *  1 billion shares would yield a PE of 995, which seems to be what a well run, trusted Bitcoin business trades for.

One can't ignore the market indefinitely. For the past two years MPEx has been practically without exception the largest venture in Bitcoin. Others have come and gone, be it Satoshi Dice, Asicminer or what have you. At times of crisis the entire rest of the Bitcoin economy collapsed into nothingness, leaving MPEx to stand in excess of the sum of everything else. At times of (irrational) exuberance drastically inflated market caps on the basis of narrow available "investment" Bitcoin made competition seem possible, in aggregate, but still left MPEx the largest one Bitcoin business (with week or month-long interruptions here and there, sure).

The fact remains that Bitcoin isn't here to adapt to the needs, desires, or expectations of the fiat world. Bitcoin is here to force --with its consent, no matter how enthusiastic, or against its will, no matter how empathic-- the conformation of the fiat world. Consequently...1k PE is just what PEs are in Bitcoin, if the company doesn't suck. If it does suck...well...a fraction thereof.

This isn't nearly as unreasonable as it seems once you realize that Bitcoin, unlike fiats, is noninflationary. In 1965 a gallon of gas cost $0.31, today almost fifty years later it costs ten times as much. That's roughly 20% each year (0.2 * 50 = 10) and if you compound it yearly this comes to a whooping 9100x. Meanwhile in the same interval Berkshire Hathaway went from $14.86 per share to $182,175, which is roughly 12,259x. Not that much better (and for that matter if you compound quarterly rather than yearly, the gasoline figure is 17,292 rather than 9100). In this perspective, Berkshire has barely kept up with inflation (a little above if you compound yearly, a little below if you compound quarterly). What is the real (ie, Bitcoin-equivalent) PE of Berkshire? About 1000x, at least as degree of magnitude. Once you wash away all accounting inflation caused by fiat monetary inflation even the best of fiat companies appears quite MPEx-ish. And this as to the exceptional, the outstanding, the one-of-a-kind. God help you should you consider the merely competent, such as for instance Buffett's competitors Burlington Industries (actually, he spells it out himself).

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March 06, 2014, 11:56:45 PM
 #274

This isn't nearly as unreasonable as it seems

I love it how you know nobody buys your shit.

You really are an artist when it comes to the art of bullshitting. Isn't there a word for people like that? Oh yea it's called a con artist.

My bet is this ponzi collapses within the next 6 months. Depending on whether or not there is another influx of bitcoin noobs to recruit to the cult of mpex.
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March 07, 2014, 03:02:03 AM
 #275

This isn't nearly as unreasonable as it seems

I love it how you know nobody buys your shit.

You really are an artist when it comes to the art of bullshitting. Isn't there a word for people like that? Oh yea it's called a con artist.

My bet is this ponzi collapses within the next 6 months. Depending on whether or not there is another influx of bitcoin noobs to recruit to the cult of mpex.

I might be amenable to taking the other side of this bet.

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March 07, 2014, 08:52:53 AM
 #276

I love it how you know nobody buys your shit.

You really are an artist when it comes to the art of bullshitting. Isn't there a word for people like that? Oh yea it's called a con artist.

My bet is this ponzi collapses within the next 6 months. Depending on whether or not there is another influx of bitcoin noobs to recruit to the cult of mpex.

So go make your bet then.

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March 07, 2014, 09:17:49 AM
 #277

... Others have come and gone, be it Satoshi Dice, Asicminer or what have you. ...
Where exactly has Satoshi Dice and Asicminer gone?

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March 07, 2014, 10:06:57 AM
 #278

Where exactly has Satoshi Dice and Asicminer gone?

Satoshi Dice has delisted and thus has a market cap of 0. Asicminer is trading at about 2-300k BTC, which is nowhere near in range. Thus, gone, in the context we were discussing, which was MPEx' oppressively colossal 8-900k BTC weight.

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March 07, 2014, 08:42:54 PM
 #279

Where exactly has Satoshi Dice and Asicminer gone?

Satoshi Dice has delisted and thus has a market cap of 0. Asicminer is trading at about 2-300k BTC, which is nowhere near in range. Thus, gone, in the context we were discussing, which was MPEx' oppressively colossal 8-900k BTC weight.

And for a less skewed comparison:



Value of publicly owned shares:

Mpex: 130k btc
Asicminer: 130k btc


Dividends paid last year:

Mpex: 14k btc
Asicminer: 200k btc


Amount of dividends derived directly from losses of own investors:

Mpex: 13k btc
Asicminer: 0 btc

Dividends derived from service/sales:

Mpex: 1k btc
Asicminer: 200k btc



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March 07, 2014, 11:08:15 PM
 #280

blablabla

What happened to your bet?

No BTC just hot air out the mouth or what is it?

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