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Author Topic: Huge jump in network hash power  (Read 6014 times)
marcus_of_augustus
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February 18, 2011, 08:58:44 AM
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from 258 GHash/s to 360ish Hash/s.

anybody know what's up? A  cluster waiting for the difficulty jump before coming on-line or something else?

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February 18, 2011, 09:14:26 AM
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It's a combination of the fact that mining with high end cards is currently very profitable, which has made a lot of people buy more GPUs, and the Slashdot effect.
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February 18, 2011, 09:18:41 AM
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It's a combination of the fact that mining with high end cards is currently very profitable, which has made a lot of people buy more GPUs, and the Slashdot effect.

Yeah, but in the space of 6 hours some slashdotters bought on-line another 100 HD 5970's?

Something big (bitcoin-wise) happened.

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February 18, 2011, 09:24:52 AM
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network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.
marcus_of_augustus
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February 18, 2011, 09:31:54 AM
 #5


Thanks, that explains a lot....

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February 18, 2011, 09:52:44 AM
 #6

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... some slashdotters bought on-line another 100 HD 5970's?

i briefly mentioned bitcoin to colleagues a week ago (they do not read slashdot) and today they were discussing who's cellar will host their mining pc (setting up a mining coop, they are mid 40ties, never heard of bitcoin before afaik)

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February 18, 2011, 10:29:07 AM
 #7

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:



(this graph is generated from the precise timings blocks were found, and not just the number of blocks since difficulty increase)

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February 18, 2011, 10:44:27 AM
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NSA!!!

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February 18, 2011, 10:46:19 AM
 #9

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:
(graph here)

Just looks like exponential growth to me.

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Exponential growth (including exponential decay) occurs when the growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

the more people that know about bitcoin, the more people will find out about bitcoin => exponential growth. expect more.


Raulo
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February 18, 2011, 10:48:48 AM
 #10

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:
It's not unprecedented. There were >40% jumps last year frequently. Of course it was easier back then where a single 5970 meant a few percent of the global hashspeed but today as long as everybody increases its mining capacity by 40%, we have such a jump. Or everybody keeps the same but there are 40% more miners. Or a little of both.

Mining was extremely profitable recently, the $/hash was at the November level where the jumps were large.
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html

There will still be significant jumps in difficulty as long as mining is so profitable. A crash in BTC/$ market can only stop it short term. If the BTC price stays the same, we will probably see a few 30%-ish increases in difficulty and it will gradually slow to 10-20% increases like in January.

edit: proper page linked

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Pieter Wuille
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February 18, 2011, 10:59:38 AM
 #11

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:
(graph here)

Just looks like exponential growth to me.

Absolutely, it is exponential growth. But nonetheless there was a sudden (though not very large) increase recently.

Originally i made the graphs on an exponential scale but people seem to like the linear ones more (maybe they look more dramatic?):


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gusti
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February 18, 2011, 01:43:15 PM
 #12

Does anybody have a graphic showing correlation between BTC Market Price vs. Difficult ?

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Raulo
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February 18, 2011, 02:07:19 PM
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Does anybody have a graphic showing correlation between BTC Market Price vs. Difficult ?

The graph presented above
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html
shows exactly the correlation between BTC price and difficulty but in more tangible units. It's BTC price divided by difficulty times a factor for converting it into dollars per 100MH/s.

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February 18, 2011, 03:38:21 PM
 #14

Does anybody have a graphic showing correlation between BTC Market Price vs. Difficult ?

The graph presented above
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
shows exactly the correlation between BTC price and difficulty but in more tangible units. It's BTC price divided by difficulty times a factor for converting it into dollars per 100MH/s.

Your link is redirecting to another webpage.

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ribuck
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February 18, 2011, 04:30:28 PM
 #15

The high returns last year are a bit misleading, because most people were mining with CPUs and it was not possible to achieve anything near 100 MHash/s.
Raulo
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February 18, 2011, 04:42:25 PM
 #16

Here is a full page that downloads properly:
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html

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Raulo
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February 18, 2011, 04:45:52 PM
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The high returns last year are a bit misleading, because most people were mining with CPUs and it was not possible to achieve anything near 100 MHash/s.

Well, yes but the unit is for just today's mining capabilities. One can divide by 100 and get a daily income per 1Mh/s which was achievable back then.

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marcus_of_augustus
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February 18, 2011, 07:48:24 PM
 #18


Well if I was going to bring a rack-mounted GPU cluster, or similarly expensive GPU rental, etc, on-line I would schedule delivery, installation timing to have it coming on-stream immediately after a difficulty increase. You get a temporary leg up over the existing competition until the next difficulty increase.

Raulo
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February 18, 2011, 08:01:33 PM
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Well if I was going to bring a rack-mounted GPU cluster, or similarly expensive GPU rental, etc, on-line I would schedule delivery, installation timing to have it coming on-stream immediately after a difficulty increase. You get a temporary leg up over the existing competition until the next difficulty increase.

It does absolutely not make sense timing bringing up capacity online. The most optimal strategy is to mine as soon as possible. A mined block is worth more than the loss resulting from difficulty increase of one's mining in the next round.

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February 18, 2011, 08:30:08 PM
 #20

The graph presented above
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html
shows exactly the correlation between BTC price and difficulty but in more tangible units. It's BTC price divided by difficulty times a factor for converting it into dollars per 100MH/s.

Hey, this is excellent.  Thanks!

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